Is a long-term holder
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I agree with every one of your points. I believe the Ford F150 has already exited the playing area, leaving only RIVIAN as the .competition' for the Cybertruck.
I have been driving my wife's old (2020) Model Y. It did have FSD, and I would not ever part with that, So, when ELON offered a window for transferring the FSD to a new purchase, I just had to do it. However, there were a few issue:
1. My wife said why bother? And I kinda agreed. I was super happy with the old Model Y, which had depreciated to a point that I would have to come up with over $20K to make the deal.
2. We had managed to lose our owner certificate.
SELLING the old car
Tesla insisted on me proving the pink slip, which would take me another month or two and cost about $100.
So I got estimates from CARVANA,,CARMAX And KBB.
KBB was the only one that actually asked me if I had the pink slip. I said NO, and they came up with the highest estimate, ANYWAY! TESLA's trade-in value was the lowest even though they had two chances. I told CARMAX I had to have two estimates (with and without FSD). They said FSD makes no difference to them or their buyers!! AND they offered me the second highest value.
I picked up my brand new Y on the Thursday Sep 21, and sold the old Y on Sep 28.
Interesting note: As far as I know, TESLA STILL does not have a payment from me on the new car. Some mixup on the bank account. To me, it was amazing that they let me drive off in the new car!
TESLA's P&D report for Q2. To say that I was not disappointed would be a lie, and I hardly ever do that.
The reason I was expecting higher numbers was because the clueless ablest consensus was just under 455,000. However, the one person whose opinion I truly respect, ROB MAURER, had it pegged extremely close. However, I did not watch his video until later. Somehow I still expected TESLA to pull a rabbit out of thin air, because when I took delivery of my Model Y in late-September (more on that later), the excitement I noticed in first-time TESLA buyers was incredible.
A complete ignorance of reality is par for the course for our esteemed analysts. The question going foreword is Q4 deliveries:
My simple math shows the following:
Minimum Q4 production = 1,800,000 - (430,488+479,700+440,808) = 449,004.
Minimum Q4 deliveries (assuming a neutral inventory) = 1,800,00 - (435,059+466,140+422,875) = 485,926.
If deliveries exceed production, there would be an inventory drawdown. My Model YY came from inventory, just because doing s saved me over $2,000 compared to a new build and required NO compromises. Going forward, there may be compromises required on the 3 (for sure) and maybe the other models as well. THEREFORE LARGER DISCOUNTS MAY BE REQUIRED..
The clueless are so focused on the P&D report that they are completely MISSING the real TESLA story of the weekend:
George, thanks for posting that incredibly positive article. Even the barbs are toned down: for instance the statement "While the Tesla Model 3 is not a big car, it isn’t compact by any means. This leaves room for Tesla to bring a true compact to the streets at a price that is truly attainable." is not as negative a statement as I have seen in some articles. Other examples in my critical eyes are the following: "Downsizing and keeping things simple, as Tesla tends to do anyway, is the logical next step in opening up the EV market to a vast amount of densely populated areas." and "Thankfully reliability and fit and finish have improved within the brand over the years." The last statement I have quoted needs a little context. I have owned and driven Tesla for over 7 years now, and can report no significant issues with the fit and reliability. The ONLY real issue I had in the seven years was one trip to the Bay Area when my Model S refused to charge at ANY supercharger, Fortunately, this happened in Buena Park, and the charger was located at a Tesla repair facility. Those days (I believe it was about six years ago), Tesla had loaners and we were promptly (well, it took 15-30 minutes), moved into another Model S for our trip! The repairs took a bit longer than expected, however, we had a higher-range Model S in the meantime!
There are two ways to time short-term trades (JUST MY OPINION):
1.YOUR WAY. Wait for your selected technical indicators to line up. ALONG WITH fundamentals.
2. MY WAY: I am overly optimistic. The result is that I have a lot more losing weeks than winning weeks. In fact, my strategy has been:
a) Identify stocks to watch. The criteria I use are as follows:
1. High Volatility. BETA well over 1
2. LiQUIDITY: Trading volume over 50 million shares per day on average.
Mind you, these criteria are approximate. At the moment, I am focused on four stocks: TSLA, NVDA, NFLX and META. In he past I have dabbled in AMZN and AAPL, and during the bank crisis, in SCHW, SOFI and others. As already admitted, my strategy results in more losing weeks than winning weeks. However, overall, I think I am ahead.
2. Select the strike prices for calls and puts at least one week out. BUY A FEW CALLS AND PROTECTIVE PUTS.
3. WATCH THE ACTION.
4. Don't try to squeeze out the last drop of profit from a trade - ALWAYS leave something for the next
guy.
The companies on my radar currently are TSLA, NVDA , META and NFLX. NFLX is a rather small company by market cap. BUT it is one of my key stocks because of tremendous volatility.
JJ: Went exactly is a good time to buy?
FOR once in a long time the market is behaving somewhat rationally today! TSLA is up while GM and FORD are down!
FBANDG: You can call it advice, but I think of it as the opinions of like-minded people. JUST BECAUSE some investors refuse to do their own DD is NO reason to stop including your opinions in your posts.
I though ONLY EVs catch fire?
With a phone key, there is NO need for the key cards.
Interesting read. One other reason the article did not mention is the fact that Teslas are hard to get into. SHORT OF BREAKING A WINDOW!
And, right on cue, zf is up over 4% who;e GM is up over 2%, while TSLA has been dragged lower!
That should be obvious to ALL but EV-deniers. Keep in mind that the Flat Earth Society has some members even today! People will keep betting on IC cars until they are dragged, kicking and screaming, into the modern world.
Of course, this is only in the pre-market which seems to be a reflection of trading on the Frankfurt exchange.
FINALLY! Some sanity prevails. F and GM are down while TSLA is up!
George, I read the whole article. I came away with the feeling that the author was trying hard to be all things to all people; in other words, he was playing politics. Examples of the author hedging:
'Competition especially stands out, considering that a few of Tesla's rivals already have robotaxi services in selected U.S. markets. But Wood could also be right about Tesla stock soaring more than 5x by 2027.' Competition? Where?
'Wood argued that Tesla has a major advantage because it has more data than all the other autonomous vehicle companies combined.' I personally thought that was a FACT.
'In particular, Wood believes that safety will be a key factor behind Tesla's success.' What does the author think?
'There's one significant fly in the ointment with Wood's full-blown bullish outlook for Tesla, though: It depends on the company rolling out its robotaxi service in the fourth quarter of 2023. That timing appears to be highly unlikely.' Wonder how much difference timing of FSD rollout makes to Cathie's case!
'Many might argue that Wood's bear case price target for Tesla is also unrealistic. However, if her assumptions about the robotaxi market -- and Tesla's advantages in that market -- prove to be correct, so will her prediction about the stock.' That is a typical politician's statement!
Today's price action is typical of most recent days. The price goes up in pre-market action, retreats at the official market open, then slowly climbs. I think this type of action is perhaps typical of a coordinated short attack, perhaps the technicians on this board can chime in. If so, today may be the perfect time to teach the shorts a lesson.
What I love about Cathie Wood is that she is not afraid to stick her neck out. She may be wrong, BUT that does not stop her, or ELON for that matter. NOW, Cathie is on record as saying that TSLA will reach at least $1,400 by 2027. What do you think?
I always thought that WSJ is the most reliable of all media!
Last week, I thought I had seen everything! However, this morning's price action takes the cake!
One thing I am learning from JJ is TAKE WHATEVER THE MARKET GIVES YOU! Don't waste your time trying to understand it!
So, this morning I bought calls with a strike price of $267.50!
Does it feel like WS is rewarding auto management of the BIG 3 for standing firm against outrageous demands?
DREAM ON, BUDDY!
NOEW, I have seen EVERYTHING! Ford and GM have been struck, but their stocks are UP! TSLA is DOWN!
I want somebody on this board to engage with me and others on the benefit of unions.
I want somebody on this board to engage with me and others on the benefit of unions.
BUT, Rovlram, how do you counteract the BLATriNG HEADLINES, CETHIE WOOD IS SELLING!
Here is an article about Tesla's manufacturing prowess, the one thing NOBODY can steal as easily as all aspects of the design!
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/tesla-TSLA/stock-news/92041048/tesla-revolutionizes-car-manufacturing-with-quiet
JJ: I agree with everything you said. My question is what use is the analysis?
WHAT AN IIDIOT! I guess he never came close to running out of gas on a deserted highway!
THAT is awesome news!
JJ: Thanks.
MAD DOG CRAMER has helped Tesla again!
See.
Just anticipating answers based on what my wife would say: "YOU CANNOT TRUST A COMPUTER'. However, we trust computers in many other fields including flying!
WHY WOULD ANYBODY NOT USE ADAPTIVE CRUISE CONTROL ON ANY TESLA? After all, under adaptive cruise control, the car is guaranteed to slow down as the front car slows down, and stop if necessary. After the stop is done, the car will go again, but only up to the max speed allowed! WHAT EXACTLY CAN A HUMAN DO BETTER?
Well, the CPI-core was okay, overall CPI including food and energy was as expected, on the high side. TSLA seems to be taking it in stride. So I am not selling my calls yet.
JJ;Are you saying he techs are suggesting a reversal?
By all accounts, the CPI reading for August, to be released tomorrow, is expected to be friendly. I SURE HOPE SO!
JJ: The Moon strategy requires the purchase of both calls and puts. However, he also typically wants puts with a higher strike price than the calls. That makes the puts EXPENSIVE! So my modification of his strategy is to NOT do that. In spite of that modification, the puts last week were too expensive for me. So, this week, I am flying without a parachute!
Today is a representation of the classic battle between the few well-funded shorts and the barely funded majority of investors. Who will win? I think it is safe to award Round 1 to the shorts, But please keep in mind that the fight has multiple rounds.