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Still waiting to buy. I actually bought u as a momentum play. I'll sell it when the run up gets exhausted.
Sold 7.10 PM
Possibly looking to buy below 6.90
Sold all at 130.16 just because I wanted to protect my gains. Nice action happening over at DGAZ as NG hits August doldrums.
from NASDAQ and WSJ
"U.S. crude-oil stocks are expected to show a decline in data due Wednesday from the Department of Energy, according to a survey of analysts by The Wall Street Journal.
Estimates from 12 analysts surveyed showed that U.S. oil inventories are projected to have decreased by 900,000 barrels, on average, in the week ended July 29.
The closely watched survey from the Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 a.m. EDT Wednesday.
Gasoline stockpiles are expected to show a decrease of 300,000 barrels on average, according to analysts. Seven analysts expect a decline, four expect a rise and one sees no change. Estimates range from a fall of 1.5 million barrels to a rise of 1.1 million barrels.
Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to fall by 100,000 barrels. Seven analysts project a decline, four expect a rise and one expects no change. Forecasts range from a decline of 1 million barrels to an increase of 1 million barrels.
Refinery use is seen as unchanged from the prior week at 92.4% of capacity, based on EIA data. Four analysts forecast a rise, five expect a decline and three didn't report estimates. Forecasts range from a decrease of 0.8 point to an increase of 0.7 point.
The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said late Tuesday that its own data for that week showed a 1.3- million-barrel decrease in crude supplies, a 450,000-barrel decline in gasoline stocks and a 539,000-barrel increase in distillate inventories, according to market participants.
Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use
Citi Futures Perspective -1.5 -1 -1 -0.3
Commodity Research Group -2.8 0 0.2 0.7
Confluence Investment Mgmt -2 -1 -0.5 0.5
Energy Management Institute -0.5 0.5 0.5 -0.1
Excel Futures 1.892 1.149 -0.152 0.3
First Standard Financial -0.398 -0.789 -0.299
Frost & Sullivan -3 -1.5 -1 0.5
IAF Advisors -0.5 1 -0.5
Price Futures Group 2 -1 -1 -0.8
Ritterbusch and Associates -1 -0.5 0 -0.5
Schneider Electric -2.5 -1 1 -0.5
Tyche Capital Advisors -0.5 1 1
AVERAGE -0.9 -0.3 -0.1 0.0
High 2 1.149 1 0.7
Low -3 -1.5 -1 -0.8"
I too am hoping for a gap up. Hasn't happened as of the Sunday reopening of Globex trading. we'll see what happens overnight. Friday may have been the peak before the August swoon - but 14 day weather outlook still looks warmer than average for CONUS, and injection numbers for last week should be low.
Short term, buying D on any kind of bounce close to $3 is the way to go for me.
Long term, I think the hot weather has helped use up some of the DUCs. There is still a lot of gas in storage, but injection numbers might make Nov 1 storage below last year. La Nina looks to be here, albeit relatively weak. It'll probably be a normal to slightly below normal winter. That coupled with lower production might set the stage for a significant rally. There are lots of other factors such as the hurricane season, autumn weather, US oil wells not being fracked until price improves (less associated gas), short term power switching to coal, canadian gas imports, Mexican gas exports, and so on. All in all I think NG eventually rebounds to 3.30ish at least.
You're welcome. Looks like the big money believes in ng - today. The chart doesn't show any weakness. They may try to push it higher. Dude has the best quote ever about natural gas, "they push it as high as they can and then try to push it as low as they can."
Sold at 39.99. I dont care if it goes higher. Im happy. Nice day. I will be watching the chart to see if there is a retreat that can be taken advantage of via D.
NG 2.65 seems to be offering best support. I made initial buy at 34.51. I might buy more premarket if NG goes below 2.625.
EIA storage forecasts:
WSJ +27 bcf
Forex Factory +29 bcf
Reuters +25 bcf
I think the report comes in lower. There should be a spike in price and perhaps some momentum going thru mid-day. I think U hits 37, and wouldn't be surprised if it hit 38. It may be a good play to switch to D for the ride back down either tomorrow afternoon or Friday. This is the scenario I think is most likely.
On the supply side I am concerned about inflows of Canadian gas and short term switching to coal. On the demand side the next two week's weather doesn't look as hot as it has been.
If I screw it up I have my DWTI shares to comfort me.
From WSJ Monday July 25
Natural gas prices retreated after hitting a two-week high with healthy supply still outweighing extreme heat and high demand for gas-fired power.
Natural gas for August delivery settled down 3 cents, or 1.1%, at $2.747 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices had hit $2.818/mmBtu earlier in the morning, the highest intraday price since July 11.
But the market has spent most of July on the retreat. A glut in storage left over from the winter and production staying near record highs has caused many to question whether a springtime rally had gone too far too fast.
Even during a surge of demand from extreme heat nationwide, a glut in storage and strong output from the U.S. and Canada are keeping a lid on prices, analysts and a broker said. Canadian imports hit an 18-month high of 8 billion cubic feet, according to FirstEnergy Capital Corp. in Calgary. The end of some major pipeline maintenance and healthy coal stockpiles also helped offset demand, analysts said.
Those supplies come at a time when U.S. stockpiles still have a record glut leftover from a warm winter of tepid heating demand. Stockpiles as of July 15 sat at 3.3 trillion cubic feet, 17% above levels from a year ago and 21% above the five-year average for the same week. Many still expect storage levels to rise to 4 trillion cubic feet by the start of the winter and challenge the record highs.
“We just can’t get away from the fact we have almost 3.3 [trillion cubic feet] in the ground,” said Gene McGillian, research manager at Tradition Energy. “Nobody’s worried about anything.”
Summer demand is highly connected to heat because power plants typically use more gas and run harder as consumers use more air conditioning. Weather Services International in Andover, Mass., did issue new heat alerts for both the West and Northeast coasts, saying parts of both regions will have high temperatures of about 100 degrees this week.
But actual demand hasn’t been able to meet high expectations, Scott Shelton, broker at ICAP PLC, said in a note. And, since June, power generators have become more likely to buy coal to run their plants and feed the cooling demand because gas prices have become so high, according to analysts.
“When it gets that hot and a lot of the (gas-fired plants are) already running, it makes sense that the coal would ramp up harder during the heatwave than the gas,” said Eric Fell, senior natural gas analyst at Genscape Inc., a data provider.
Unusually large NG volumes starting just before 8 this evening with accompanying whipsaw. Finally settling at NG 2.68. Anybody know why this happened?
Unusually large volumes starting just before 8 this evening with accompanying whipsaw. Finally settling at NG 2.68. Anybody know why this happened?
Averaged in yesterday at 34.3. Too high. Should have patiently waited for lower. Sold after report at 35.
If injection is smaller than composite estimates NG goes up. Not a lot(unless the injection is way low). If injection is equal to or more than estimates then its more of the same downward trend.
NGI has estimates ranging from 29 to 61 bcf.
Here's a SA quickie that covers some of the factors affecting price going forward.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3989026-natural-gas-prices-go-3-yet-natural-gas-daily
I think NG goes to at least 2.72. I would consider selling at that point.
Flipped it premarket. Nice gain but not as much as I hoped. Still DUST, UWTI and UGAZ helped me have a strong close to what had been a lackluster week. Heck I even scalped NUGT for a bit in the afternoon.
Btw I don't think I have ever seen NUGT have such strong AH volume.
Have a nice weekend everyone.
sold my 24.90s early at 27.09.
Boom. And im out. Nice day. Have a nice weekend everyone.
Entered again at 35.03 with a really tight stop. See how this goes...
Oops. Typo. should be 5.76
This week has been flip heaven for Gold, and tomorrow might be the best of the lot. I picked up a bunch of DUST near close at 7.76 and it's looking good so far.
Could be the smartest move. You made decent money. I've left money on the table plenty of times and regretted it. Its a win in my book!
Sold my 36.00 at 38.13 on the report bounce. Ovaerall kinda disappointing. I could have scalped this one 3 or more times during the time i held it. Waiting for a much better price on u or d to re-enter.
Almost time to buy! 44.50 ish
"A low entry point gives a margin of safety for the errors we inevitably make. The trouble with buying things when they’re up is that you have to be right.” - Jim Grant
I much prefer to play D, but I made my first buy at 36.
Sold my 27.30s PM. Switched to D.
All the talking heads are tut tutting crude, saying it will drop to low 40s. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. Going with the trend is usually profitable. I still think that when DUCs get eaten up there will be supply issues - just not today.
Right on the money Dude
Yeah. Thanks for that. I already took some short positions yesterday AH.
Also got rid of my remaining U just before end of AH at 32.5
Sold half my 32s yesterday when market popped. Still hanging onto half. If there is any sort of jump tomorrow i'll probably unload the remainder.
Oil might be range bound. I can make plenty of dough between $46.5 and $49.5.
I allocate 3% of my total portfolio to oil/energy. I already have all 3% invested. Should WTI go below $45.50 I may "find" the money to add to my U position.
I have been searching for DUC numbers. Thanks for that post. The big question for me is when will DUC depletion cause an impact on storage? Perhaps a better question is when will NG contract buyers see this happening?
From oilprice.com
Oil Prices Could Spike As Analysts See Venezuela Losing 500,000 bpd
By James Burgess - Jun 23, 2016, 4:11 PM CDT
Oil prices have surged by more than 80 percent since February on the back of unexpected supply disruptions. But the market could be missing yet another potential supply disruption that could push up prices.
Venezuela’s oil production could fall by a half million barrels per day in 2016, according to a recent estimate from Barclays. Electricity blackouts, financial distress, lack of maintenance, and a shortage of imported light oil for processing could lead to faster declines in the South America nation. Venezuela has already seen 120,000 barrels per day knocked offline because of blackouts, an outage that comes on top of years of gradual declines because of underinvestment in the country’s oil fields. The economic crisis could even force the state-owned PDVSA to default on debt later this year, according to a recent assessment from Moody’s. The oil markets are not yet pricing in this potential supply outage.
Venezuela is home to the world's largest oil reserves – at 298 billion barrels of proved oil reserves, Venezuela even exceeds Saudi Arabia in terms of the sheer size of its resource base. But unlike Saudi Arabia, much of Venezuela’s oil comes in the form of heavy oil, which requires much higher levels of investment and processing. On top of the lack of investment and maintenance in the nation’s oil fields, Venezuela has also run low on light oil that it needs in order to dilute its heavy crude for processing. Without the cash to import light oil from abroad, PDVSA could have trouble maintaining output.
The economic crisis that has seen riots, desperate food shortages, and horrific conditions in the country’s hospitals, is also hitting the oil sector in other ways. Venezuela’s oil industry is running low on spare parts, making maintenance difficult to conduct, and the withdrawal of several international oilfield service companies also threaten a deeper contraction in output. The crisis is also crushing morale among PDVSA’s workforce, as hyperinflation erodes their pay. "Workers' moods are in the dumps," Francisco Luna, a union leader in the oil-producing area of Lake Maracaibo, told Reuters in mid-June. "Every day it's worse. Maintenance is lacking, equipment is lacking."
Venezuela is running out resources that it needs to meet debt payments to creditors. The government has prioritized meeting bond payments, but the crisis is so deep that the country is in talks with China to extend repayment terms.
Barclays laid out several scenarios for Venezuela’s oil sector. Its worst-case scenario sees output falling by 500,000 barrels per day in 2016, taking overall production down to 1.7 million barrels per day.
This would have profound implications for global oil prices. Notably, the oil market was only oversupplied by about 500,000 barrels per day before the outages in Canada in Nigeria, Barclays estimates. Although it is hard to know in real time, the oil market is arguably already in balance. The return of Canadian production could prevent sharp price increases, but with the markets naturally moving towards a more decisive balance later this year, unexpected disruptions from countries like Venezuela could tip the global market into deficit.
“It definitely tightens the balance and raises the call on shale oil,” Michael Cohen, an analyst at Barclays, said of Venezuela’s falling oil production. “During the peak summer months, people will see how much inventory has been drawn down.”
A sizable outage from Venezuela would, as a result, mean that oil prices could rise much faster than expected. Although notable forecasters such as investment bank Goldman Sachs see little upside to oil prices in the near-term, not everyone agrees. Raymond James took a more bullish note this week, projecting $80 per barrel by the end of 2017.
If Venezuela cannot stop its economic and political crisis spreading deeper into its oil industry, the forecasters at Raymond James will be closer to the mark than Goldman Sachs.
All in. 31.92 average. Totally screwed up one entry though. However I think I'll be golden sometime in the next two weeks.
averaged in at 8.07
Dayum! I had planned on holding thru report tomorrow but I may just take profits
Thanks. Shoulda stayed in. My epitath will read "Good at buying. Bad at selling"
29.79 entry. 35.98 exit.
NG rally is 10 days old. It looks like the chart wants to break down.
Perhaps it'll remain tightly range bound until Thursday's report.