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No there was nothing that I know of, gold hasn't gone nuts, no unexpected statements by FED members, nothing public anyway.
Only thing I can think of is that is the day I think the FED announced their un-scheduled meeting. I guess that might have been the trigger. IMF lady was yapping that day too I believe.
lol, yea, that is the point. A good pump starts to make people question if the up move will even end. It is very important that it gets driven so that it APPEARS that it will never end because charts and fundamentals don't support any more of an up move and actually support a down move so the pumping is key to keep the buying going.
I'm in a good position. I will be OK. Once I figured out what was really happening I moved to a more cautious position.
Miners do have massive runs but even in their hay day they still have selloffs and corrections and pretty sizable ones at that. Even when in a bull cycle.
DUST and JDST are pinched and they will get a run to relieve their pinch eventually. At minimum they will need to break and hold past their 20 day moving averages for at least a couple of days to relieve their pinches. Since they are longnecks I would look for at least the 50 day moving average or 100 day though because longenecks get better runs. Some longnecks even get the 200 day moving average once they run.
As I said the problem with pinches is just because something is pinched doesn't mean it can't get more pinched and just because something has been pinched for 2 months doesn't mean it can't stay pinched for another month or two or even longer. Eventually though the pinch must relieve and it will.
Now will GDX have run so high like to $27 or something that DUST is then 75 cents or something before it finally gets its run to break the longneck pinch? It is possible and if that happens then it could run 300% or more and yet only be back to 2 or 3 bucks. Not very useful if buying at 2 or 3 bucks. Plus most holding DUST now will have given up by the time it finally runs.
Some might ask why would I give out info about pinches? Why let other know if they don't know already? Well to talk about the existence of a pinch doesn't help at all. As I said just because something is pinched it doesn't mean it can't pinch more and for longer. People get hammered all the time when trying to do a pinch play. Experience is very key to knowing how to time a pinch.
This one is a challenge for me because usually I'm playing a pinch as a bull. This is an inverse though so it is a bear ETF and a play that is pinched due to the giant bull run in miners. Now I'm playing a pinch as a bear and it is challenging.
Principals are the same though and so I will cautiously stick with it. So far 8 out of 9 winning trades here for me ain't too bad. Eventually DUST and JDST will have a big run though. They have to. They can not and will not stay pinched indefinitely so yes eventually miners will selloff a big enough amount so that their inverses (DUST/JDST) get a good run and relieve their pinches which then places things back to equilibrium. Until this time happens there will be a big imbalance and this imbalance must and will correct itself. Now exactly when this happens, well that's the hard part.
This is also how I know that the intent was not to accumulate mining stocks for the long haul. When one side of the trade gets so biased that the other side gets pinched then what has been created is unsustainable and will falter eventually. Mining stocks could have been ran up in a natural and disciplined way which would not have pinched the inverses but instead miners went up in a parabolic way and that has pinched the inverses. Equilibrium must and will be returned, so because of the very nature of how and in what way miners went up which pinched the inverses tells me that the intent is not a long term play in them.
Another thing is DUST and JDST are pinched like a son of a gun. Never, not one time in over 15 years of trading have I not seen a pinch get its run. It is 99% that they do. Only time that they don't is when the actual company folds. Something can't get a run if it stops trading or goes extinct. Other then that situation all pinch plays get their run eventually. Timing is extremely key with pinch plays though as one can take on huge loses while waiting for the run.
Looking at the DUST and JDST pinches first thought is that these are ETFs. I don't see ETFs get this pinched all that often. Second is that the PPOs have never been lower in them. Third a few weeks ago divergence happened and the pinches should have been relieved by a run happening. Instead they have dropped to further lows. Now the divergence has reversed and the pinch is getting re-pinched but without even getting a run to relieve the first pinch so now it is just one very long on-going pinch.
What this means is that there is massive amounts of money on the other side of the trade. To keep something this pinched and for this long and especially an ETF representing an entire sector means massive $$$$$ on the other side. The long side in miners is extremely crowded with tons of money in it. When that dumping starts it will be huge.
The way that DUST is pinched is what I call a longneck or long nose pinch. These run bigger and more massive then regular pinches. These longnecks are a true test of patience though. They seem to take forever.
A pinch is actually an abnormal chart condition. It is when one side of the trade has become so heavily biased and out of whack that the chart is able to display it with a pinch.
The type of pinch DUST has is the pain in the butt type but also the most rewarding but timing is critical. It would not be out of the ordinary for the ADX to come back to the original pinch point of the longneck which would mean ADX at 40 again.
The amount of money that has to be used to bias one side of the trade to cause the other side to have a longneck is enormous and it can not and will not continue. Especially for an ETF. All of that has to unwind and as it unwinds out of miners DUST will run massive. The catch is when to catch it, where is bottom. It is coming though and will be a giant run that DUST has. Once the pumping campaign unwinds then the massive money build in miners will unwind. This will lead to a huge selloff and DUST to finally have a massive run that will break its longneck pinch finally.
One thing I know and is absolute about the stock market. All things obey a pinch eventually and all pinches must get their run. The timing of pinches however are very difficult and risky and take a lot of experience to get the feel of them.
Yes, same for me. I have a lot of profit from UWTI. Here I am under on my last trade but the previous 8 I had here were winners so it isn't a big deal. Can't win them all.
This is the part that has to be figured out. We know the mining sector is having a pumping campaign. When will it end though, that is the key.
You are right about the China story. That is what I was saying. None of that is really new and even so it is fluff. China buying mining assets still doesn't take away from the real fundamentals. The real fundamentals if anyone looks at them show mining companies have bad fundamentals for the litany of reasons I have stated before. Besides anything China touches just crashes anyway lol.
Alright, from my experience I'd say since the pumping is right now fixated around April 19th because of "a big hedge fund will be buying on the 19th" and then "the China thing" also on the 19th they are setting that up as the big grand day that miners "really start their run" even though they are already up 150% in 3 months. I'd keep my eye on the 19th for the opposite and see if that is when the real dumping begins. Most likely so IMO.
Can they get GDX up to $27 before the 19th, not sure, or can they keep GDX at least elevated at $23 by the 19th, also not sure. Circle the 19th though because if the pumping squad is fixated on that then most likely it is important but usually for an opposite reason.
Yep, very true. The light bulb went off last night. I finally had some time to fully investigate why miners keep going up. All signs point to a big pump. TV media/social media/articles/message boards/promotions/websites then the chart shows it too.
Right now the pumping has moved to the China story. China buying up mining assets as well as them doing their "fix". Looks like this culminates on April 19th as is supposed to be the BIG day that the sector really takes off, which actually means that is when the dumping is most likely to start.
This was a winter pump and these usually last until mid to late April. This is the best one I have seen since the great weed pump of 2014.
I know of pumping campaigns well as over the years I have observed many of them. This is a good one!
Only thing I'm left to wonder is if they can get the GDX to $27.
I agree with you completely. In my view the rise in miners in January and February was based on some real non fluff things. Technical bounce in January and economics and gold in February. Since March 10th or so however the continued rise in miners is nothing but fluff and a big pump job.
The real things with meat brought GDX to about 17ish. The pump campaign has taken it much higher. I'd say probably once the pump turns into the dump phase GDX will go back to 17 when it is all over with.
As you know I am not talking about gold itself. The gold chart and miner's charts are very different. Gold doesn't have that parabolic pump look to it. Also gold is a commodity so it doesn't have bad balance sheets, have valuations of 80 times earnings, or burdened with huge debt, or barely profitable if profitable at all etc etc etc like miners are.
Anyway, lets see if the dumping in miners starts at GDX 23. I am in DUST still but pulled back on my position some. I'm only in with my penny stock play money right now. I have my big boy money ready however. This pump job is a really good one and I think it has the power to get GDX to $27. If that happens I'll have my big boy money ready. The dump from there will be big as it will fall all the way down to 17 IMO.
I had a great day with UWTI again. Fortunately here I am 8 out of 9 in trading DUST. My last trade here did not pan out. Now that I realize how big of a pumping campaign is on-going with the miners I know what I am dealing with and that helps a lot. Have to be cautious now until the dump phase comes in, it will eventually. Good part is that with the amount of pumping they are doing the dumping will be very large and if we are paying attention we will be able to notice the start of the miner dump phase and really load DUST. We just have to be patient and let the pump phase wear out.
Gold doesn't matter right now. Over the last month gold is flat. Miners have gone parabolic. If you are in NUGT or mining stocks ride the pump. Just be sure to to dump before they dump on you. The dump is going to be epic.
Yes, I know miners have been doing bad for years now before this pumping campaign. However fundamentals actually justified it. Their balance sheets are bad. Their dividends are tiny. They have enormous debts. Many don't make profits and now the mining sector is 4 times as expensive (earnings ratio wise) as the S&P and people say the S&P is expensive.
Fantastic pump and dump occurring in miners. Look for $23 and make sure GDX gets up past that. If it does keep riding the pump job until $27. Make sure to dump before you get dumped on though.
I didn't realize until last night how big of a pumping campaign is on-going for miners. I do favor that GDX will break and hold $33 in coming days.
Once I figured out how big the pump and dump that is on-going in miners is when I realized I might want to take more caution here while I was ahead.
I think it is more probable that they pump GDX up to $27. From that point the dumping in miners will be epic and DUST and JDST will soar.
I'd give it a 70% chance they pump GDX until $27 before doing their massive dumping. I'd only give it a 30% chance that $23 is the dumping zone. This pump and dump they are running in miners right now is one of the best I have seen.
Overall, that is correct. The overall market, I just say S&P stopped the bear market and crash in March 2009 and then went on a major bull run.
If you take the GDX chart and the S&P chart back then you will see they are basically identical. The only difference between the two is that the GDX chart is "ahead" of the S&P chart by 3/4 months are so on the decline and recovery. All in all it deosn't matter too much because the actual overall bear market started Oct 2007 and as time moved ahead turned into a crash and it did not end until March 2009. The crash in miners was fully within this window of the overall bear market and crash.
The economy was still a mess as you say but the overall market began its new bull market in March 2009 even without the economy turning yet. From March 2009 until May of last year the overall market was in a huge bull run.
So yes miners did great from 2009 until 2012 but the overall market did great as well. Miners did terrible in 2008 and that coincided with the overall bear market and crash from Oct 2007-Mar 2009.
Miners are not good hedges against the stock market. They are part of the stock market. Gold is the hedge not miners.
Alright here is the deal. The GDX has hit $23. That is support from May 2014 as well as resistance from January 2015.
I think the pump job is strong enough to get to the next level possibly and that would be $27. $27 was resistance from Aug 2014 and March 2014 and even roughly Oct 2013.
The W completed at $20 for GDX but I see those Ws extended most of the time to the next leg which in this case was $23. Often they even extend to the leg after which in this case would be $27.
Play is simple right here. If GDX can not break and hold $23 then it will fall from here and DUST is in play. If GDX does then hold on to those miners until GDX hits $27. At that time though cash out of the miners and DUST will be in play.
This is what I would/will do.
You don't see that giant HUGE drop in the GDX from March 2008 until late Oct 2008? GDX went from something like $55 down to as low as $15.
Yea from there it went up as it went up with the market. The mining sector is actually a forward indicator.
It crashed with the market back then and then recovered with the market.
What you just posted is the recovery of the mining sector from the market crash. Tell the whole story and post what the sector did before it went from $16 all the way to $66.
March 2008 to Nov 2008 GDX fell (crashed) from $55 down to $15. The market began its crash in Oct 2007 and got worse in May/June 2008 and accelerated in September 2008.
GDX was no "hedge" it got the snot kicked out of it.
When the market crashes miners are one of the first sectors to crash. They are also one of the first to recover. During a market crash you aren't going to have all the sectors crashing and then recovering at the same time. GDX and miners crashed hard in 2008 and that is a fact and they did so in line and in proximity with the market crash.
I know a pump job when I see one. I have played the OTC for 15 years (successfully). Have a look around the last month. All media is bullish, all message boards are bullish. Articles stating actual real fundamental reasons why miners should be parabolic are all fluff. No mentions of price to earnings ratios or balance sheets or debt burdens or miners lack of profitability. No mention that gold is flat over the last month. No mention that miners are parabolic and that the entire sector is up 100-150% in 3 months. That is because no one wants to say these but they are the true fundamentals. Instead fluff stories are put out to keep the pump going.
This is a grand pump job now. Don't worry because the pump isn't over yet. Yes though it will end eventually. Last sector pump job was biotech and they crashed. Sector before it was weed in 2014 and it crashed. You can't have entire sectors go up 150% in 3 months and not consider there is fluff and pumping going on. Miners are now in a pumping phase and there is always a phase that follows the pump.
All in all I did alright here. Made winnings on 8 out of 9 trades. Not bad. The real money will be made once the pump fades and it will. Just can't have the S&P 500 at a price to earnings ratio of 20 and think that is expensive and then have the mining sector at P/E of 80 and think that is under-valued. Can't have a sector go parabolic and then instead of correcting it just bases and goes parabolic again. I mean these things can happen and do happen but they always lead to you know what.
Pump jobs only last for so long. In the last month gold has been flat. For the year miners are up 100-150%. Their charts are way over-bought and are parabolic. Message boards, media, and all else completely falling over themselves pumping miners up with very very little to offer fundamentally why. Newest one is about China, that they are buying mining assets. So what? Everything they touch crashes. For the last month the continued rise in miners is just a pump job. It is becoming the best one I have seen since the great weed pump of 2014.
Pump job isn't over yet so miners probably continue. Last night I had to have a look around and see what was out there. No reason for miners to still be going up. I found my answer. Big fat pump job. It makes since now.
Yes, understand. I don't know ahead of time though how fast or slow GDX will move and in what time frame so I can't predict how much decay. If GDX where to hit my first target all in one day tomorrow at 20.23 then DUST would probably hit that 2.80. This most likely will not happen so there will be some decay but how much, don't know. We'll see when we cross that bridge.
Signing off for the night, take care fellas.
You are in better shape then a lot. I'd be confident that you will make a profit (or at least have the opportunity to) on this trade with that avg.
GDX has 5 gap ups that have not filled. Today's then at 20.23, then 17ish then 15.5ish then 13.5ish. At minimum I'd expect the top two to get filled so GDX 22.70-20.23=2.47 or 10.9% move down. Multiply by 3 and that would be 32.6% then times DUST at 2.11 equals 69 cents and add to 2.11 gives pps of DUST about 2.80.
I think that is minimum. I also think GDX falls to 18.5 once it finally has a correction. Using same math that would put DUST at 3.28 or so.
GDX could correct lower then that but for me I'll probably take my winnings.
Once GDX begins to correct I look for 2.80 in DUST and then possibly 3.28 after.
Correction in my view concerning miners should have already happened. In my view since 3 weeks ago miners have moved up from momentum only. Gold is flat over the last month, miners are not cheap at all in any way and they have been very over-bought, however they keep going higher. Miners will correct when the momentum/pumping/irrational frenzy subsides. Unless there is some knee jerk event to cause them to jump more then I'd guess they start to correct this week. When they do I'll be looking for the top 2 gap ups in GDX (one today and the one at 20.23) to fill at minimum and I'll look for GDX to go to around $18.5 or so before correction is completed, something like that.
Here is why in my view.
Start of January miners are very over-sold at that time. Technical bounce very warranted and justified. Miners went up in January and it was absolutely justified.
In February gold was on a run and miners continued up and this was justified although miners got a bit overextended but nothing crazy yet.
March, gold basically flat for the month and miners not over-sold at all anymore however momentum carried them on. Movement starting to get silly.
April, gold still basically flat since March 10th. Miners now parabolic. Extremely over-priced and over-bought. Momentum has matured into a full blown pump job.
I look around and analysts are recently upgrading miners. Great of them to do. Where were they in January? Nope they wait until miners have gone up 150% in 3 months. Articles and media all over the place pumping miners now. Everyone loves the mining sector now that it is up 150% in 3 months. Bad balance sheets, huge debt burdens, gold being flat over the last month, Huge valuations of 60-80 times earnings, parabolic chart move. All ignored right now because a pump job is happening. What was justifiable in January and February and then turned a little too optimistic in March has now become a full blown pump job IMO.
This by the way is very normal in the stock market. All sectors do this from time to time. From one extreme to the other.
I agree with you, and I do the same. What I do not understand is the people (and I wasn't talking about you) who pile into mining stocks because they think a market crash is on the horizon. Those mining stocks will get smashed if the market crashes. If they think a crash is coming and they want to be in mining stocks then what actually should be done by them is to actually wait for the crash and then buy mining stocks.
Just like you were saying about what you do. Have cash ready and buy once the crash has made everything extremely cheap. I don't understand why these doom and gloomers think the mining sector will go up huge during a market crash. They never have before and miners actually crash hard themselves.
Some might say, well miners did great between 2009 and 2012. Yes they did but the market was kicking but at that time. It was not crashing. The last miner bull run coincided with the start of the market bull run. The last major miner crash coincided with the last market crash. Miners are not hedges against the market. They are part of the market. Sure miners and the overall market can and do move in opposite directions at times but all sectors do that from time to time. Miners probably do it more so but miners have and will follow BIG overall market moves like crashes.
The problem is however that buying the miner sector is absolutely NOT a hedge against the market. Almost everyone thinks it is but it isn't. Gold, actual gold, is the hedge, not mining stocks. Miners drop as hard as bank stocks when there are market crashes. Why people don't know this I have no idea.
In 2008 we all know what happened with the market. Big crash. People should look at the performance of ABX, it was horrendous. People should look at the performance of GDX at that time too, it was horrendous. A precious metals mutual fund that I have owned in the past which is USAGX. It is like GDX but better. Anyway that did horrendous.
The market crash before the 2008 one was 2000-2002. Again poor performance by mining stocks.
I just don't understand why people who want to avoid the market and put their money elsewhere then choose to keep it in the market. When people buy mining stocks they are still buying stocks. How in their mind is that avoiding the market? They are still in the market. Mining stocks are a horrendous hedge against a market crash. It is shown in charts plain as day.
How can this be, someone might ask. Well as it turns out miners are loaded with debt. If the financial system is cracking who can service their debt. Miners have bad balance sheets so if banks are in serious trouble how does a miner have the money to get the gold out of the ground? If banks die or are even troubled then everything banks service also become in serious trouble. Some say miners have big reserves, well they also have huge debt. This has to be considered. Companies with weak balance sheets like miners are some of the first stocks people dump when there is an actual market crash.
People who are loading up in mining stocks because they think a market crash is coming are simply betting against themselves and don't even realize it. All they have to do is open their eyes and look at the charts but for some reason they don't. Owning actual gold and owning mining stocks are two different things. Miners are very dependent on banks and loans/notes etc etc. Gold isn't dependent on those things. Miners are a horrendous "hedge" against market crashes.
Doubled up on shares at 2.15.
Look, first I was no where around months ago. I don't know who you are talking about when you say back when nugt was $18. I sure as heck was not hanging around here saying don't buy nugt. It was a very good buy back then. I would not have said different back then.
Second, you keep talking about the gold trade. I'm talking about the miner trade. They are different. I can be bearish on miners for the very many reasons I stated and not at all bearish on gold and silver.
Third, I'm not going to sit here and argue with anyone what the performance of miners is when the market crashes. It is right there in everyone's face. They do horrendous. They crash with the market. Yea, I would rather be in cash during a crash then be in miners and get the crap kicked out of me.
Fourth I am playing DUST. That is a play against miners. I am betting against miners. A straight bet against gold is not the play I am making nor is it the play that DUST provides. DUST is a straight up play against miners. Yes I think miners go down and for the reasons/scenarios I have posted. Gold, I didn't say anything about that. It is actually a different trade even though most don't realize it.
Ah, now that is something I can agree with. I have been saying for awhile that I am not bearish on gold but I am very bearish on gold miners. People think they are the exact same trade. They are not!
I lived it. I went through it. Have a look at something. That USAA precious metals fund. It is a good fund. I like it. It's just a fund of mining stocks. Its symbol is USAGX. Look at the weekly 10 year chart. Look at that in 2008. Big fat crash it had. It was worse then I even remember. It went from $26 down to $10, from March to Oct 2008. All it did was reflect the mining sector as that is all what that fund is.
I hear people say "market crash is coming" so I'm going to cash and might also buy some gold or silver. I say OK
I hear people say "market crash is coming so I'm buying mining stocks" I say you will loose your shirt. You can't avoid the market by still being in the market. This is shown clear as day in historical charts and performance.
Now one might be able to see my position on this. I can have it both ways now with witch ever the story plays out.
Story 1 is the market crashes and just like always miners will crash with the market. Hey, I'm in DUST, I win.
Story 2 is the market does fine and economies do fine people get board and look at their mining stocks and realize the momo juice is gone and notice miners are extremely expensive so they sell them to allocate their money in other sectors or whatever. Hey, I'm in DUST, I win.
That sounds a lot more like herd mentality then it does "smart money" mentality. You mean to tell me the follow:
1) That GDX has 4 gap ups in the chart. At 20.23, at about 17, at about 15 and a half and at about 13 and a half and NONE of those are going to fill? 4 gap ups in 1 chart and not 1 will fill?
2) The assumption that miners go up huge when the market crashes or from recession (deflation). Well then why the hell did my USAA precious metals fund (fund of just mining stocks) drop about 50% in 2008 in just a 9 month period? Why was that if miners are such great hedges? They are stocks and they are part of the market. Deflation hits and market crashes miners go down too. Cash is king and nothing else. This crap about miners being hedges for market crashes is a falsehood.
3) DUST is down on the weekly 12 out of the last 13 weeks and this is supposed to go on indefinitely?
4) DUST in the last 3 months has closed over its 20 day moving average ONE time. Not the 200dma or 50dma or even 32dma but the 20 day. 1 time in about the last 3 months and this is supposed to continue indefinitely?
5) DUST's RSI is below 50 every single day for about 3 months and this is supposed to continue indefinitely?
6) GDX's RSI has been above 50 for almost 3 months and this is supposed to continue indefinitely?
7) Gold miners on average have price to earnings ratios of about 60-80. I'm supposed to believe that "smart money" is dumping their other S&P stocks because they are "over-valued" because the S&P has a P/E of about 20 or so, so "smart money" is dumping the S&P (at P/E of 20) so they can jump into a sector with a P/E of 60-80?
8) Miner sector just had its best quarter in decades and this is supposed to continue indefinitely? No corrections, no decent pullbacks, no filling of gap ups everywhere, just going to go straight up huh? Hey miners are up about 100% this year, heck with it why not 200% or 400%, why not 1000%? Lets shoot to the moon! Lets give miners a earnings ratio of 300 or something insane, why not huh?
9) What the heck would anyone care about a reverse split on DUST. Reverse splits only effect the mind of a rookie. If there is no dilution present (and there isn't because this isn't that sort of thing with toxic warrants or convertible notes like OTCs or some of the bios in Nasdaq) then who gives a darn?
10) If a reverse split really bothers you (which would just be plain stupid) then how many has NUGT had in the past?
11) 90% of the babble on message boards concerning miners is extremely optimistic and "smart money" always agrees with message board posters right? I never knew that "smart money" was the herd.
If all of this is the case and this is the thinking and logic of "smart money" then I am happily taking the other side of the trade because "smart money" sure is acting irrational and herd like to me.
Think you mean miners not gold. Gold was pretty much flat today. Miners go up for whatever reasons everyday now. Miners even ignore metals now. Metals pretty flat last couple weeks or so if not down a little yet miners ripping.
I saw miners have a great week this week. I saw gold do basically squat. You are right though, every reason under the sun was used for miners to jump.
I sure like that purdy W they made on the GDX chart. Look at 2 year chart. Really nice.
On the website only one thing is listed.
Matter(s) Considered
1. Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks.
Yellen last night was not very dovish at all. She was actually sort of hawkish. "We made the right decision in Dec, we will continue and not change coarse, we will continue on path blah blah blah".
Q1 GDP is not going to be very good and corporate earnings are also not going to be good. On the other hand housing has been good. Consumer confidence and spending pretty good. Last 2 jobs reports have been pretty strong and even showed wage growth. Manufacturing upticked finally. Inflation starting to get some legs finally. Not for sure if they cut or raise but all in all I think it is more likely they raise. Maybe they do nothing but why have a non-scheduled meeting to do nothing?
I'm pretty sure this is why miners were up a ton today even though the market was up and gold was flat. Gold bugs speculating disaster and big troubles is cause of this meeting but then again gold bugs are always assuming disaster is looming.
Bottom line all we can do is place bets guessing how it plays out or run for the hills and not be in and wait for it to play out.
You too Rainer,
Have a look at the 2 year GDX chart. Look at that W they made, it sure is purdy. Darn algorithms can write better Ws then I can with a pen.
I have more shares then I wanted for today but it doesn't bother me. I don't have much else to do with my money right now. In on LABD and was in UWTI and in a couple of Nasdaq mini caps. Mostly in cash though.
Alright, signing off for the day. Have a good one.
I think it is 50/50. If you don't want to hold over the weekend then its a coin flip as far as the rest of today goes.
I'm holding what I have. Not selling them. Not buying anymore today either. I want to be in the game for next week but also don't want to be too deep in yet because it is possible Monday provides even cheaper prices.
OK, cool, I grabbed my last lot of the day at 2.54. Right now have 4000 shares at 2.67 avg.
Waiting for Monday now. Thrilled with my position right now. I've only put in here what I play with and use for my penny stock hobby. If this gets any more absurd then I'll start bringing over my big boy money instead of just my play money.
As of right now with my amount of shares and avg I expect to make about 1200 on this trade once it plays out.
GDX is up a lot more then 45%. It's up from 12 something to over 21.
Something to keep an eye on. Miners have bad balance sheets and are in a lot of debt. With their stock prices being elevated don't be shocked to see them "raise capital" soon. I bet they sell warrants and notes very soon and maybe even do secondary offerings.
I'm pretty sure it is going to do what I said it would this morning. Hit a double top, get rejected and fill that 20.23 gap up it has within a few days.
Market fine today, gold flat, miners way up. It's absurd. Hope you bought some DUST while it sat under its lower BB.
DUST will close the week down. It will be the 11th out of the last 12th week. Not sustainable. Miners are going to correct. People can say whatever they wish to. It is just the usual and typical herd mentality is all I'm hearing.
Last 4-6 weeks I see a turn in economic data. From sputtering to getting itself back together. I actually think there will be an uptick in global economic growth this year and moderate US economic growth.
Wage growth is encouraging right now. Housing look pretty good. Consumer spending and consumer confidence upticked. Manufacturing upticked recently and last 2 jobs reports pretty strong with most importantly wage growth.
Not saying things are wonderful but it certainly isn't the doom that is posted on message boards. They will say the data is fake though. Unless the data is bad, then they think it is real.
I don't have it but I hear people like Fidelity. Maybe check them out.
I made my second buy today a few minutes ago and have some things to do so enjoy your weekend and talk to you next week.
I'll be averaging down soon. GDX probably gets another pop Monday morning. Buying heavy there if it does.
I've been watching economic data all year. Last few weeks it has actually been improving from what it was at the start of the year. Economies are not in great shape though.
What people don't understand is that miners are still stocks. When there is a market crash, miners crash too. I saw it in 2008. My USAA precious metals fund went from 35 to 16 in 9 months.
To stay out of the market means get in cash and cash is king. It does not mean just get in another area of the market. People can assume what they want to. That miners fly when there is a market crash but history does not show that at all.
Someone can say "Well my miner is a hedge". Yea well your miner has big debt probably (most do). If there is financial trouble and the financial sector is in deep trouble that miner feels the pain too.
To buy actual physical gold I can understand. To buy mining stocks or paper gold however never made since to me. "I think there will be Armageddon so I'll buy paper/electronic products". Makes no sense to me. If they think everything falls to pieces how do they get to cash out? Banks back all of that stuff up.
Just my thought. Anyway going to make another buy today at some point and then be ready to possibly get some Monday perhaps. Have a good weekend.
Come on GDX. Lets go, get up there and exhaust yourself. Fast sto at 99, and reaching upper BB. Really wanting a breach of the upper BB on GDX and a fast sto of 100. DUST is going to pay me for the 9th time next week.
I'm in 1/2 position and seeing if GDX has anymore gas on this pop. I'm down 4% right now but very happy with my position currently. This is going to net me a good profit. I am certain of it.
Scared money can't make any money. It is obvious to me that what will probably happen is a double top on GDX, rejection and then a smack down on GDX to fill that fat gap at 20.23 on that chart. In other words DUST gets back over $3 easily.
No reason for this not to happen and no reason not to think it will happen. Anyway, to me and for many reasons right now is a very good buy and is very likely to net a good profit.
Bought more at 2.68, now 1/2 in.
It's cool, no problem, we're good. One thing for sure that you have going for you is that GDX has 4 gap ups in the chart. There is no way all 4 don't fill. The first 2 will fill for sure and the 3rd one at 15 something is likely. Then even the one at 13 something is probable over time. Gaps always fill (especially gap ups) and the GDX chart has 4 of them. High probability that at least 3 out of the 4 fill eventually. What I don't know is when they will fill. It can take a good amount of time on occasions.
If you believe that the market is about to crash then instead of guessing about what miners would do you really need to look at history and see what happens. There have been plenty of crashes to draw a conclusion from.
In 2007 I owned a USAA precious metals fund. How did it do in 2008? It went down 50%. When deflation hits and hits hard the price of everything GOES DOWN. I held that fund through and ended up adding and not selling it until 2011 and did well on it btw.