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PVAC Nice pep talk, just picked up some more PVAC and KEM too.
Now we know China's response to increased tariffs. Now the question is what will Trump do? That will likely set the tone for the market tomorrow.
PVAC Hard to believe it is down another 9% when oil is up for the day.
There must have been some serious downgrades on this one. Too cheap to sell now.
Trade war escalation: Futures are pointing to a 1%+ drop at the open right now. Traders are wondering how China will respond to our new tariffs. Looks like we are going into a period of increased volatility, both up and down, until this trade war issue gets resolved. Fasten your seat belts.
PVAC Just like BCEI, had huge derivative losses which overwhelmed operational profits for the Q. $38.7 mil in income changed to a loss of $38.7 after the derivatives loss. Looks like they are projecting production to increase about 10% next quarter and stabilize there through the end of the year. Can't believe how the analysts could have been so wrong on figuring GAAP eps after derivatives (I assume that is hedging losses as with BCEI)
Looks like the market does not like it as the stock is down 5% today. What do you guys think?
Penn Virginia (NASDAQ:PVAC): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.25 beats by $0.44; GAAP EPS of -$2.56 misses by $4.42.
Revenue of $105.23M (+36.3% Y/Y) misses by $2.33M.
LYFT is now down 27% from its IPO price. I'm sure that took some of the air out of Uber's balloon, plus another big down day for the market doesn't help either.
BCEI I'm surprised that no analyst asked them about their hedges. I see from the 10Q that the fair value of their derivatives dropped all the way from $38 million to $1.5 million over the course of the last quarter.
But I wonder if they plan to keep on placing new hedges, how many they will add, is it a lender requirement, etc. Btw, that was a short and sweet conf call.
BCEI Settling back after what I thought was a strong report and guidance.
One thing that may be turning off investors were those huge derivative losses. Looks like they come from their hedging program.
does anyone know how they will look for the rest of the year, if oil/gas prices remain stable? I'm guessing they can't be too much as they have already written off their value to near zero.
From the earnings PR:
GAAP net loss of $7.0 million or $0.34 per diluted share, inclusive of $1.82 non-cash loss on derivatives
Those 25% tariffs on chinese goods are on. So far, there is a muted reaction in the market. Next question is what will China do to retaliate? Odds are we will hear something by Monday morning.
KEM Nice buy nelson right near the low for the day. I did not pull the trigger yet. Tomorrow will be very interesting with the tariff scheduled to kick in at midnight. I figure we will either be up big or down big depending on how those negotiations in Washington go.
China trade deal We all hope negotiators are able to come to a trade agreement with China but I believe we also need to stand firm on an agreement with some teeth to slow China's theft of our technology. Even if we do go to 25% tariffs, I think the market will soon discover that the world is not coming to an end and this sell-off will turn into a buying opportunity.
TGB Gibraltar operations were slowed by extreme winter weather last Q. The company left their guidance for 2019 unchanged. The Florence copper project is coming along better than expected. The unknown remains how they are going to finance it, debt or joint venture.
I'm with R59 on this one.
From the PR: Russell Hallbauer, President and CEO of Taseko, commented, "With a grade profile similar to 2018, copper and molybdenum production are expected to increase through 2019 and our previously stated guidance remains unchanged at 130 million lbs +/-5%."
KEM Figured it was time to take another look at this one as earnings will be out soon. A number of us took a position in this one after the big drop after last quarter earnings came out.
There's an interesting article in SA that came out about two weeks ago. I'm not sure if it is still available for view, I decided to take a paid subscription there as they have enough good in-depth articles to make it worthwhile to me.
The article pointed out that this company should continue to grow as its products are used in IOT, new car safety features like adaptive cruise control and auto sensors. Their products will also be used more in 5G. and those stocks have had a great run this year.
KEM is way below last summer's highs of near $30. With an estimated PE of only about 5 for the year ending 3/19 (coming report) this one looks cheap to me at $18 and change. I'm holding and tempted to add here.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4255703-kemet-corporation-cheap-ignore
fnhc surprised it is up today. I bailed on this one at 15.86
Borrow rate of 111% from IB?
Wow, There is some serious loan sharking going on there!
Who collects the interest on that?
If it's the person who owns the shares, they will recoup the entire value of the shares in less than a year.
I would expect Shanghai would be up some today considering that they closed down 5.58% yesterday.
Looks like half a percent drop which is about a 135 point drop for the Dow in the futures as I write this. Not too shabby, particularly considering the big comeback we had today.
We definitely will be having more volatility until this trade issue with China gets resolved.
The issue of enforcemment has been discussed with the chinese many times as has been talked about by Trump officials including Kudlow and and Mnuchin.
Why tweet about it? You have to ask Trump about that, but looking at the huge drop in the Chinese indexes, I would guess that Trump probably thinks that will pressure the Chinese to get serious.
President Xi doesn't need to run for re-election as our Presidents do. But he does serve at the pleasure of the Communist party leaders. Xi has already lost some of his power as the leaders are showing their displeasure with the progress of the negotiations.
Market down 370 points. Not too bad considering the Chinese huge drop in their stock market.
My understanding is that most of the hang ups to reaching a trade deal with the Chinese center around enforcement mechanisms. Trump wants teeth written into the deal if the Chinese cheat as they have often done in the past.
Futures are still right around 1.8% down on the Dow, 20 minutes ahead of the open. The Chinese exchanges really took a beating overnight. The Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes are now down 5.7 and 7.4%! Our expected drop is a cakewalk compared to theirs.
Typical Trump posturing as the Chinese attempt to renegotiate (ie renege on some of the terms) of the trade agreement. Looks like Wade will make some money tomorrow and the rest of us will likely show losses. I do expect this pullback to be short-lived though. Both parties have plenty of incentive to get back to the table. In fact the Chinese apparently need this more than we do. US futures are down about 1.8%, but the Shanghai index is down nearly twice that right now.
Tomorrow will be interesting.
MU Decided to take profits in this one at 43.24. I've been watching memory chip prices on dramexchange.com drop by .5 to 1% every day for a long time. I can't even remember the last time they had an up day. Recent warnings from INTC, WDC, and Samsung are also noted. This price collapse in chips is steeper than expected and the rate is accelerating.
Longer term, I still really like MU and expect to get back in once prices bottom. With the SP price up 50% since December lows, I just think it has gotten ahead of itself here.
NWHM Loss of 4c vs loss of 8c estimate. although they had some severance expenses bringing the loss to 10c. Revenues were strong as I expected, but their gross margin was too low so they still lost money. They are taking steps to reduce overhead which is why they had severance costs in Q1. Backlog is also down yoy and revenue guidance for Q2 is down a little yoy too.
overall, I was mildly disappointed. Stock is so cheap now at 40% of BV that I can't see selling here. This one could become a buy out target for a large builder, although I don't know if mgmt would be interested either. Part of the reason that WLH was up so much yesterday, was the announcement that they are open to selling the company.
Bottom line, I think this stock is too cheap to sell but I've lost my appetite to add shares too. I haven't listened to the CC yet.
Oh well, great action in CCS on earnings more than makes up for this one.
BYND That gives it market cap of $3.8 Billion for a food company with about $100 million in sales along with growing losses. CEO is on FBN now and declined to target when the company might become profitable. \
Sure wish those buyers would discover my stocks.
BYND Crazy. Now up 123% on a down market day.
LPI up about 9% on Q1 results (1c beat) and raised guidance.
Looking good on first look.
WLH +15% in early trading on Q1 results and improving outlook for this home builder. Earnings were in line with estimates and revs were a nice beat. Also, sales per community are steadily increasing. The monthly order pace was 2.4 sales per community in January, improving to 2.9 in February, and picking up again in March to 4.1. WLH builds mainly in the southwest (CA, AZ, and TX).
Tempted to take a quick 35% profit for a 5 week holding but this one is still well under BV and mortgage rates remain low.
Wade, After friday's surprise 3.2% growth rate for GDP in Q1, I don't think the market expected a rate cut with that strong growth.
I think the Fed probably overtightened in Q418 which gave the market a scare in December. If they do tighten again it probably won't be until year end and only if continued growth warrants it. I think the market just had a schizo hour today just before the close. But I don't try to time the market either, just keep looking for individual stock bargains in the market as many do here.
I don't know of anyone who expected the Fed to lower rates today.
I think it was a more a case of buy the rumor, sell the news. Could also be that the market is already getting nervous about how far left some of the leading democratic presidential candidates are. Back to a regime of higher taxes and more regulation is not good for Wall Street investors.
MDC Another homebuilder with an earnings and rev beat is up 4+% today.
Used home sales are down, mainly due to a shortage of used homes for sale in many areas. The only way to make up for that is new construction which is going up again, fueled by lower mortgage rates.
NRZ only missed estimates by only 1c while revs were a nice beat. Stock is actually up about 1% in early trading. They've done a couple capital raises recently by issuing more stock. I suspect it takes a while to get all that capital to work, which is why they were a little softer in eps this quarter. I'm holding my shares.
TMHC A nice Q1 report from this homebuilder reporting a 12c beat in earnings, 46c eps vs 34c est, Revs were also way up, +23% yoy. Stock is up 7% in early trading.
Another builder, NWHM has been selling off and I've been adding. Stock is selling for only 40% of BV after a bad Q4 report caused by one time write offs.
CAI looks to open lower after reporting a 4c miss (87c vs 91c estimate) and a small 5% miss in revs in Q!, their seasonally weakest quarter. CC transcript is available on SA. Company sounds positive on their Q1 results and also for the coming year on their containership and logistics business. They are paying a higher interest rate as they converted much of their variable rate debt to fixed rate. Also buying back stock and expect to continue to do so.
If CAI has a big sell-off at the open, I'll be looking to add at a current PE of under 6.
BCEI Surprised to see the weakness in this one today right after that positive PR on Q1 iate last week. Could be that some don't like the officer Form 4 sales that appeared yesterday. Not big sales, but it does appear they lightened up a bit. Why do that ahead of strong earnings coming out next month?
I did pick up a few more shares on this weakness. Would have been more if I hadn't noticed those insider sales.
Yep, nice strength into the close today. What I can't figure out is why the 10 year note rate actually fell by 2 basis points in the face of stronger than expected GDP growth in Q1 ( 3.2% vs 2.5% estimate). Interest rates should be rising when the economy is showing more strength than expected.
Path of least resistance seems higher for the market. Economy rebounding, rates are low, mostly positive surprises in earnings reports so far. SP500 and Nasdaq hit new highs today. Dow is very close.
Homebuilders are weak today. It appears to be in response to disappointing March new home starts announcement by the government. I suspect the number was weak due to worse weather than normal across much of the country in March, but we'll see.
NVR, a homebuilder, did announce earnings this morning with a strong beat in Q1 earnings. That stock is up over 4% today. Interesting that this homebuilder nearly went bankrupt back in the 90s but has turned into easily the #1 success story in the group. Back in the early to mid 90s, they often traded under $1/ share and slowly recovered to the single digits in the latter half of the 90s. Today, this stock is trading at $3,300/ share!
NVR turns over its lot inventory much faster than other builders because it switched to an option system to tie up building lots rather than outright ownership. They needed to do this to conserve capital but it has helped turn them into a huge success in the industry. More and more of the builders appear to be moving toward this approach.
ZM 50x sales sure sounds uber-rich to me. Tried to short at 63 but ATurd rejected my order. That's one way to keep the price up.Does anyone know when the public is allowed to short these new IPOs?
I had envisioned the market making a double top which is just about where we are now. But with the improving economic news we've been seeing and the Fed having backed off of tightening and rate increases, I'm now inclined to think the market can break into new highs soon.
FBIO has its hands in and/or has spun off a number of interesting startups.
With a market cap of less than 100 mil and way below its 52 week high of 4.52, this one looks interesting to me.
Took a flier in it at 1.70 which is near its low for the day after that MBIO news.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4249690-plenty-upside-fortress-biotech
TGB Decided to take a look at this one after R59 has made several bullish comments on it, even though I had sworn off penny stocks, particularly penny mining stocks, years ago.
TGB looks very interesting with that Florence mine update last Friday.That mine looks very promising assuming it gets permitted to go to full commercial production. The after tax NPV of that mine alone with $3 copper is $750 million. That is very impressive considering that the current market cap of TGB is $160 million and that TGB also has other mines including a profitable one at Gibraltar. The Gibraltar mine will help pay for developing Florence over the next 2 years.
The biggest risk I see is that TGB will not get permitted for full scale development at Florence. Altough TGB has demonstrated that the leaching of the mine does not pose hazards to the environment or local water tables, the Florence, AZ city council is against it.
I think it is worth the risk here. I broke my "penny stock" rule and opened a position in TGB.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4254264-taseko-mines-great-news-florence-project
OK Mr. Market:
Please feel free to melt me up, up and away!