Flying high with AYSI
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echos and all, Maybe we should start a VM hall of fame for those stocks in the index that "leave the ranch" and hit the stratosphere. Something over a 10-bagger or maybe 20 should surely qualify. Bobwins could induct them onto the lead in page with the dates between WM discovery and lift-off. I expect WIRX/XWG is almost there and ASPN is headed that direction. Just a thought...
Mat
RR,
After we reach a new trading range, let me know when you want another run and I will sell some more. The ASPN ride has been sweet so far and I hope it continues for the immediate future.
Mat
Any thoughts on WGMGY? Looks like it is breaking out. I bought a little GIGM and WGMGY against my normal investing strategy based upon the PRTY IPO. I almost sold GIGM, but now I think I will unload at a loss. I am trying to decide a reasonable price for WGMGY exit. A nice project for the weekend.
Mat
As much as I like ASPN, I think the long wait for drilling news increases the risk of less than ideal results. That and the other factors that affect pps caused me to go ahead and sell 20% today. I considered the last time we touched $4, but I decided to carry a little more cash. ASPN has been very good to me since just over $1 and I hope the drilling season is good to all of us. Best of luck.
Mat
Quarterly Ammendment Info,
I just got off the phone with Mr. Waldorf and we discussed the recent ammendment. He indicated that there were no material changes, but changes to terminology to maintain compliance with SEC changes in terminology. For example the term "registrant" was replaced with "Small Business Issue" and "Quarterly Report" was replaced with "Report". There were others, but none related to performance of the company. He also indicated that they are working to update the Eye Dynamics website, so we should watch for that. It was a short conversation, but he was very helpfull and pleasant to talk to.
Mat
This ought to be a very happy board! I bought WIRX at $1.51 and it has been a fantastic ride! Too bad I didn't buy enough, but hey you can't have everything.
Mat
Rogue,
Did you listen to the Brinker interview of Mr. Batra? Very interesting and it did not convince me of Mr. Batra's conclusions although it is an interesting conspiracy theory and I agree that Greenspan has made some odd mistakes over time.
Mat
Barry,
I reviewed the amendment against the original and I could not see a difference other than a second Sarbanes/Oxley form so I sent an email to EYDY. If I don't hear back in a day or so I will try to call. Sorry I wasn't more help so far. I also mentioned that we shareholders would like to hear more about the aquisition.
Mat
Barry,
I will take a look over the weekend, but I don't know of a way to tell what the changes are.
Mat
EYDY is slowly teasing us with information about the upcoming aquisition. Hopefully additional details are to follow soon. The marketing and sale of the Safety Scope is definitely the potential growth engine for EYDY, so it is great to hear they are moving forward on this. It is way too early to know if it will be successfull, but we will see. I am hoping we can hear the details of the aquisition and have a decent quarterly report at about the same time in the next month.
Mat
Typically I don't enjoy a red day across the board, but today it is lining me up to compete with this worthy group. Best of luck to all and thanks to Len and Skilz and all the others for making this happen. May the best investor win.
Mat
Len,
Please replace ATYT with EYDY and GG with MMRK
Thanks,
Mat
No, I was not able to glean anything else and I second your frustration on the lack of information. I am actually surprised that the price has stayed as high as it has.
Mat
OT: Bobwins, Tell you what, lets create a new company to manage a VM fund and with the profits from the company (we will charge low expenses ala Vanguard) we will begin a backyard design for a revolutionary nuclear plant that will not only generate electricity, but provide Hydrogen for our newly designed fuel cell vehicle. I say we target maybe a ten year planning horizon. Are you in?
On the conservation side, I tweaked your message and provided the following to Doc Hastings, Cantwell and Murray. I also plan to send the email to all my friends.
Thanks,
Mat
Dear Ms. Murray,
I am an investor and engineer. During my search for good stocks, I read a lot of articles about various businesses and industries. Based on my reading, I am convinced that the world oil production will peak at some point in time, just as the US production peaked in 1970 and has steadily declined since. I am writing to you in utter dismay at the ineffectiveness of our nation's energy policies. We are energy pigs. We use up 25% of the world's energy with 5% of the population. WHY??? Because we think we are invulnerable to the laws of nature. Our country, our economy, our lifestyle is built on cheap energy!!!! Without cheap energy, the suburbs become a wasteland,the "SuperMall" sits desserted, the viability of an auto society is in jeopardy. Is it going to happen tomorrow? NO... But it's going to happen quicker than we want unless you start thinking long term.
What happened in the last gas crisis in the 70's??? Every politician stood up and said "We will become energy independent!" Wrong! We are importing almost as much as we produce. What can you do???
Change consumption and pursue alternative energy sources!
We are a free society but we must enact those laws that ensure our survival as a nation. One of the most effective regulations of the past crisis was the fleet mpg rules that forced automakers to meet certain fleet mpg standards. This is still a free society and they can advertise all the muscle cars they want as long as the fleet mpg hits 40mpg. The bloated SUV is the supreme symbol of American stupidity. Just as our citizens are the laughing stock of the world as FAT AMERICANOS, the SUV carrying one person to work at 19mpg is a sad commentary on our collective intelligence. The higher gas prices may force automakers to nudge their production towards economy but it's always temporary. This issue is NOT going away. Put the standards up there, increase the standards slowly over time to ensure that they continue to strive for higher mpg results. They will advertise what their higher margin products, if you let them, without regard for fuel economy. Let them put their creative juices to work on improving fuel economy and profits. They can do both AND help stave off the end of this glorious cheap energy life style.
We can easily modify our energy consumption. Europeans use HALF the energy per capita that we do!!!
Setting a fleet mpg standard works. It's one step towards continuing to reduce energy consumption. We are not going to increase energy production. The Federal land in Alaska is 10 years from production. Hydrogen is an energy user if you count the energy required to produce the hydrogen, LNG plant construction is 5 years away, Nuclear is 10 years away maybe. There is no short term help.
Change consumption!!!! NOW!!! If you change the fleet mpg, it affects all cars sold after 2006. A permanent fix that improves as older cars are junked. Slap an energy surcharge on the SUV junkies. Do everything you can. I want my internet, I like lots of the perks of our cheap energy. I don't want the SUV's to take away that lifestyle. Please stop arguing about pork barrel gifts to various energy constituencies and enact effective legislation that impacts and reduces consumption!!!
In addition, we need to establish incentives for individual households to consume less. This could be accomplished by rebartes for consumption reduction initiatives, or incentives for the use of alternate energy sources such as Photovoltaic arrays on individual homes. These will not solve our problems, but they will make a difference. In addition, we should pursue alternate base energy sources such as nuclear or alternate fueled vehicles such as Hydrogen. In order to avoid the train wreck we are heading towards, we need to start acting now!
I appreciate recent efforts to push alternative fuels that are practical and doable. I believe that methane production from animal waste is viable now and should be encouraged as quickly as possible. This is not like fuel cells that are years away. This is something that other countries have been doing for years. Push legislation that makes dairy farmers stop polluting our air, water and aquifers. Corporate dairies accentuate the problem by concentrating so many animals into a limited space for efficiency. Make them convert to methane digesters. Help them with tax credits. Biodiesel you already know about and are promoting.
I realize you are working hard but this fleet mpg seems like a simple step to help Americans help themselves. We cannot increase production in any meaningful way. We can decrease overall energy consumption by enormous amounts. Imagine the results if we used 50% more energy than the Europeans but still saved 25% of our current energy consumption!!!
Keep slugging away. Please work on the consumption side. Conservation can work now!!!
Regards, Mat Irwin
OT Energy Pigs: Right on Bobwins! I am with you 100%. I am currently saving to install a PV solar array on my roof in the next 10 yrs to decrease our consumption somewhat. It is not a complete answer, but every little bit helps. Turn off those lights and computers when you leave the room! Another energy source that could help would be nuclear. Yes, I am a nuclear engineer by profession, so I am biased.
Mat
FRO - Not a VM, but certainly a V. Anyone ever looked at this company? My mom asked me about it and I was intrigued by the high dividend and low PE. I plan to do some DD this weekenhd, but thought I would ask what others think.
Mat
GIGM-OTC, It is my fault for the dip in pps. I bought some shares last week and it has been falling ever since. My plan is for it to stay down until July 1 and then it will take off for the next 6 months. By the way, I agree with your analysis and hope we are rewarded accordingly
Mat
Ok, I guess my picks will be as follows:
ASPN
PDGE
GIGM
EGY
GG
ATYT
Hopefully I followed all of the rules. Picking 6 was more challenging than I would have thought.
Mat
MDF - Linuspop, did you vote? Stanu and all, I just read the proxy and I voted against the stock option plan and the omnibus. Both just seemed overly rich to me and the compensation just to directors was far too high. I would think more highly if they provided a little less to upper management and a little more to other "select" MDF staff. I would be interested to know what others on the VM board think? I am also tempted to call Earley and express my perspective on the proposals. Bobwins, do you have any thoughts on the proxy? Others?
Thanks,
Mat
MDF - Anyone else receive a reminder to vote their MDF shares prior to the annual meeting? I just received a call. I was suprised because I haven't ever received this type of call before.
Mat
SSKILLZ1/Elohssa,
How can you possibly compare PDGE and MDF? I own both and your simplistic comparison is ridiculous. Both stocks are currently priced based upon the perceived future growth and past performance. Both have significant risks to future performance (dilution, HMO, etc), but both could overcome these risks and provide a great return. I like both, but MDF is my largest holding and I believe the probabilities of success are higher with less overall risk with MDF. Why are you comparing two so dissimilar companies with only the use of projected earnings that are affected by investments in the future?
Mat
Metropolitan Health Networks Details Plans of Its Medicare Advantage HMO Launch; Company Positions Itself for Growth as it Expands its Managed Care Business in Florida
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.asp?Feed=BW&Date=20050607&ID=487 1707&Symbol=US:MDF
Wade - MDF,
I know you didn't ask me, but I sold 15% at 2.83 and I was hoping for a dip down to 2.15, but when the HMO announcement came out I bought back at 2.55. I think there is a good chance of a dip back to 2.5, but if Earley continues to complete his checklist as designed, I doubt we will ever get any cheaper than that. I expect we will languish for the next couple of quarters, but once the market is convinced the HMO will be a success, I expect a double from here. My two cents.
Mat
Len, I know you have spoken of Bob Brinker in the past, are you sure you are not him? The Saturday show had a special guest who discussed the real estate market and the fact that in many areas FL and CA were examples it is extremely inflated over historic levels and that they are unsustainable. There were also a number of callers who illustrated the hysteria and speculative nature of the market and the impending impacts if the "bubble" burst. I have always wanted to invest in rental property, but we live in a roller coaster area, so I never have. We were also talking about a vacation property, but I think I will wait for the hysteria to pass. Hopefully the gradually rising rates will temper things and the balloon will slowly deflate and not burst, but I know that is not the typical way this type of hysteria is resolved. Good board and I look forward to the stories. I for one, will stick with VM as investments for the foreseeable future.
Mat
MDF, One time where I wish Earley did not operate like clockwork. Just kidding. My greedy plans were to recover the 5K I sold last month early this month during a dip, but I scrambled this morning and replaced my shares at $2.55. Still a small gain via trading, but now I am in for the duration. Best of luck to all MDF longs.
Mat
Koz, I just listened to Brinker today also and he was definitely bullish. It was a particularly interesting discussion of college saving plans and pensions. I hope he is right.
Mat
Has anyone else received the shareholder newsletter? It doesn't say anything new, but I personally like these communications to keep shareholders who don't follow the PRs religiously informed. I would be interested if others have any thoughts. I would really like to better understand the aquisition, but nothing yet.
Mat
Oh yes, and the company experienced a loss for the quarter and dilution to MedTrak. Not what I was hoping to see, but I can't say I am surprised.
Mat
10Q out, the following quotes caught my eye. Nothing particularly exciting and minimal discussion of the pending aquisition. I guess we will have to wait for more details.
Mat
Lower sales can be attributed to several factors. First, Medicare continues to scrutinize reimbursements for ENG tests performed by end-users utilizing any manufacturer's equipment that was not clinically indicated (although this seems to be in the process of resolution, as many newer testing
facilities have had to either implement their own clinical controls for testing justification or cease that part of their business). Second, the Company experienced a normal first quarter seasonal slow down, consistent with past years. Third, the first quarter of 2005 saw an increase in competition. The
latter issue is being addressed with new models, pricing strategies, and more aggressive marketing (both domestic and international).
Sales prospects for the balance of 2005 appear strong, based on projections received from the company's exclusive distributor, MedTrak Technologies, Inc. (Scottsdale, AZ). The Company has broadened its line of medical products with its OtoTrak and MobiTrak systems. OtoTrak performs a broad
range of tests including one that monitors head movement in both the horizontal and vertical planes (Vestibular Ocular Reflex). The MobiTrak is a compact, ultra lightweight, system ideally suited for field use.
ASPN - 0.11, Nice! I agree that ASPN has been a stock to put in a safe place and bring it out to admire periodically. Now if we can just hear about the first well for the year... I wish I were at home where I could easily get to the 10Q for review. Here's to a fun day with ASPN.
Mat
UCIA: Well I hold a tiny position, but sold my 3K shares earlier this week at $2.10. Oh well, it was a small profit and I had lost confidence in UCIA ability to deliver. I guess I was wrong.
Mat
Nice Day, too bad I am on travel and haven't been watching closely this week. The PR didn't look all that exciting, but I am glad to see the market reaction. Here's too more good news. I have been patient on EYDY and it would be great to see it pay off.
Mat
Well, the recent collapse of CPTC caused me to reevaluate my portfolio and I decided to sell 15% of my MDF. I am thinking the HMO startup may provide some buying opportunities sometime in the next quarter, but if not MDF is still my largest holding. Heres to a great earnings announcement this week! Regardless, I locked in some profits.
Mat
Len, Good point on prefering to win less than lose more. I have been trying to practice that concept more consistently, but frequently the greed urge kicks in and I hold off. This discussion and the CPTC collapse are causing me to seriously consider increasing my cash.
Thanks,
Mat
RE:CPTC, this is a good reminder of the inherent risks of a microcap. I bought in the fall at $1.50, and thankfully I sold 1/3 just under $5, but it looks like the other 2/3 will be a long wait at best. I don't follow this approach on all my investments, but I do on probably half of the winners. Makes me relook at the other winners to decide if I should lock in a few more of the profits. It is also a testament to not putting too many eggs in one basket. CPTC was not one of my core holdings, but it is always depressing to see one nosedive like this. Hopefully they can pull out of the dive and start the arduous climb back.
Mat
Researcher RE:EGY, that is probably my fault. Stocks tend to dip right after I get in. On a more positive note they do tend to recover eventually (see ASPN, MDPA/MDF, TGA, TVIN, WIRX) Hopefully EGY will be no different.
Mat
EGY - Well I finally did some DD on EGY and decided it was worth buying a few hundred shares with my profits from WIRX. Hopefully I didn't jinx things, but I like the potential.
Mat
Bull,
Your numbers look logical and I hope you are correct. I eagerly await the more good things on the horizon and I am willing to be patient for them to arrive. The $64 question is whether MDF can run a profitable HMO. I think the odds are good based upon MDF management, but the proof is in the pudding. It will be interesting to see the evolution of a successful HMO and I hope Bob is right about investor interest shifting to some safe cash generating machines like healthcare.
Mat
OT Deathtotaxes: Thanks for the insight. I hadn't thought about listening online. I too think very highly of Mr. Brinker's analysis and willingness to communicate it to the masses. Kind of like a few other investing gurus we have here.
Mat
OT Bob Brinkers Money Talk: Are any of the esteemed VM members subcribers to Money Talk? I used to religiously listen to the program on the weekend, but my local station dropped it. I am trying to decide if I should become a member for both the newsletter and the access to recent programs. I am wondering how the access to programs works. Are they files you can download and listen to at your convenience? Can they be downloaded to an ipod? Any knowledge on this topic is much appreciated.
Thanks,
Mat