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Since my last rev guess I've grown more pessimistic when looking at our history. Just hope they have some decent developments to keep us interested...
Yes, that could be the reason for the bump. Reading through the article, it appears there might be a threat to Cryoports lunch though...that being treatment at the bedside, sounds like they are not very thrilled to have to ship the cells back and forth, so they are developing portable machines that process the cells they can take with them, which is probably why no attention was brought to the article. I can't see how that is very efficient either though. Should still be plenty of market available for Cryoport as they cannot possibly have endless numbers of these machines available.
According to last quarterly report they have 'Net tangible assets' of over 20m, market cap around 2m now??? What am I missing here? Yeah they're losing money but much of it is intangible or accounting practices. They SHOULD be able to sell off assets if needed before filing any bankruptcy?
With little volume! Cant imagine what would happen if big money wants some. May be just a pre earnings bump...who knows. Lets hope for a decent quarter...
Will be interesting to see how the CoBRA index changes this quarter. If it doesnt make a move up might have to bail as it likely correlates to how Cryoport revenues are doing..so tired of waiting on this one...
For anyone interested in looking at the 'CoBRA index' here is the link. Looks like Cryoport uses their client data to compile the graph, although no client specific data is available. It would appear Cryoport feels they are the only logistics player in this area.
They did a nice job on the website, lots of information explaining it.
http://cobra-index.com/
Come again? The Co-BRA index? Anyone know what the purpose of this is? Why are we spending time and money on this....
"We created the CoBRA IndexSM to provide industry participants and those following the industry with valuable activity and trend information at a time when the industry is reaching an inflection point with many therapies approaching commercialization."
You may be correct that dilution will happen, to what extent is my question. If they have a 'commercialization' event, I'm assuming that will be very supportive of share price, which may drive the us to 5 or 6 bucks. At that point how much capital do they need? If they need $10m is it 2m shares with warrants? That isn't the same dilution we've experienced in the past, Aegis messed us up pretty bad and I don't think they'll make that mistake twice. The insiders hold enough shares where they'll see I big hit with too much dilution also...
From last Sept quarterly report they had 121M current assest, 29.4M current liabilities, cash burn appears to be around $15 to $20m/quarterly. Doesn't appear they need cash anytime soon, with a drug which may be commercial soon, generating revenue. To your point Xena...need a biologist to tell us if any additional potential is here...
Hey Xena...fnacy seeing you here from anavex board. The options you posted are from anavex...not sure you caught that. What are your thoughts on this nose dive? Looks like possible approval yet, so could have a bounce near term...
I'm not expecting more dilution just yet, end of last quarter there was 2.7m(?) in the bank, and they raised another 3.5m or so after quarter end through warrant repricing, which by the way is non-dilutive since the shares already existed. If we burn 2 million again(hope not) they should still have 4m or so in the bank. I think the food is fine, just getting customers to eat it in bigger quantities is the challenge. I'm still convinced after all the mud we've been drug through we have a winner here, how long it takes is what we are all wondering...
Does anyone know if Lattice used to be Liventa?
That there is funny!
Looking back I guess they have put out a notice one week in advance, so earnings not likely on Monday...my bad.
Are you referring to the earnings Monday? Saw it posted somewhere...cant find it back now. Figured it was right as on my Robinhood account it says 'on or about' Feb 13th...maybe off a few days?
Looks like earnings out Monday...was hoping to see a phase III client approval before earnings, just in case numbers are less than impressive...
Noble put out a pretty good research report, looks like they our homework for us. Noticed in there, they put an 18% chance of successful phase III, for 273. And estimated they would have 10% of market for Alzheimer drug at about $6 Billion. THAT would make for a very nice market cap!
Good question, there has been a lot of attention placed on immuno therapies over the years, and now that commercialization is imminent in short order I would think the smart money is keenly aware of what it takes to get it to get to it to market. If Kite gets the nod, and cryoport is doing all logistics for them...and actually named as such...THAT could be a big catalyst!
Side note...cyrxw, the tradeable warrants are gettin a bid again...last time that happened i think the common went up?
My thought is, if they have a good quarterly report, why tie a potential negative to it? The share price didn't budge with the shelf filing, which is a good sign as apparently few are scared they are going to dilute the heck out of us again. Now if we have a good quarterly report the share price can move according to the report.
Appears they are still struggling with the patent, although only with the phrases and dosing amounts being in question? I didn't see anything in the response from the patent office that puts into question whether or not A2-73 with donepizol can be patented, they just need to get their wording right? Did I read that correctly?
Yeah thats what its called...i'm not familiar with future filings if they sell shares or not...we can hope they have some news coming with kite since they have strongly indicated they are gearing up for post phase 3 approval. Get the stock price up to 5 or 6 bucks and a $10m raise doesnt hurt so bad...
Looking at this offering closer doesnt appear to be an offer...just a filing that enables them to offer shares 'in chunks' without doing a separate filing. Think companies can do this when their market cap is over 50million...anyone know more about this type of filing?
If they need that kind of capital they must have something brewing...hopefully the market responds positively and drives price up before the offering...otherwise look out below....again.
Looking at the 50 day and 200 day...we can hope it crosses...however it can easily act as resistance and go the other way, especially with lack of news? Im an amateur so please feel free to critique my observation...
Tom and Xena, just wanted to thank you for taking the time to publish your technical analysis on Anavex. I've looked at charts and watched indicators and trend lines etc...but I know there is so much more that I don't understand. I know technical analysis is valuable, and like to see what others see!!!
I'll go out on a limb and say 3m...theory being added clients from last few quarters maybe producing...optimism! Hope we get some guidance on when Kite and Novartis drug approvals are anticipated.
On a side note, you look at what Cryoport has accomplished, with their absolute best in class cryogenic logistics solution - with complete tracking - client portals - data validation, its the best one available to satisfy any regulation which I selfishly say I hope is coming to this new field of medical treatment. Just think if/when our solution is basically regulated into necessity. THAT will drive the stock price more than revenues imo. Anyone have any insight into regulations existing today?
OK, here is the article from the Herald sun...
Alzheimer’s breakthrough: Melbourne patients first in world to access drug
GRANT McARTHUR, Herald Sun
December 12, 2016 7:00am
Alzheimer’s disease breakthrough: Melbourne drug trial achieves amazing results
MELBOURNE patients will be the first in the world to access a breakthrough Alzheimer’s drug shown to wake people up from the devastating impacts of dementia.
Up to 300 Australians will be offered the chance to trial experimental drug Anavex 2-73 next year in a study hoped to be the biggest step since the 1990s in treating the disease.
The Phase II-III trial comes as results from an early stage trial revealed Anavex not only halted the progression of dementia, but even reversed its impact and restored functions.
A group of 32 patients from Melbourne’s Caulfield, Austin, Royal Melbourne and St Vincent’s hospitals involved in the early stage trial reportedly regained their ability to make jokes, engage in conversation, read books, play the piano, follow a movie, paint, play golf, travel and recall lost memories.
While the results announced in the US will have to be verified in the much larger upcoming trial for the drug to offer any hope of becoming a potential treatment, Monash University’s Associate Professor Steve Macfarlane is stunned by the early results.
“For a trial at this stage it is unprecedented — I’ve never seen responses like this in any early stage trial,” Assoc Prof Macfarlane said. “This means they are significantly less impaired than they were 12 months ago.
“The ultimate determination of how significant these results are is if they can be borne out in a much larger trial, which is planned for next year.”
Under current treatments, moderate-range Alzheimer’s patients typically drop about two points a year on the 30-point cognitive test used to measure dementia. However, those on the Anavex trial actually rose an average of 1.8 points on the cognitive test scale, with some “super responders” regaining much greater abilities and functions.
Because the drug targets homeostasis regulation to help a person’s immune system fight neurological conditions, Anavex Life Sciences chief executive officer Christopher Missling is hopeful it may also prove beneficial for other neurological disorders, including Parkinson’s disease and multiple sclerosis.
There was also encouraging news for biotech company Biogen in its development of dementia drug Aducanumab this month, with early stage results indicating it had reduced the build-up of amyloid plaque in Alzheimer’s patients’ brains.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/alzheimers-breakthrough-melbourne-patients-first-in-world-to-access-drug/news-story/abf5d8ec658da5c785aaa1338b319b39
Is this old news from Dec 12th already? From the Australia news paper the Herald Sun. Such an active message board, can't keep up:)
"Up to 300 Australians will be offered the chance to trial experimental drug Anavex 2-73 next year in a study hoped to be the biggest step since the 1990s in treating the disease.
The Phase II-III trial comes as results from an early stage trial revealed Anavex not only halted the progression of dementia, but even reversed its impact and restored functions."
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/alzheimers-breakthrough-melbourne-patients-first-in-world-to-access-drug/news-story/abf5d8ec658da5c785aaa1338b319b39
Why assume anything different, I understand they have enough capital for 'preparing' the phase 2/3 or whatever they will be, if that takes 2 years(based on your 2 years of money comment) this company isn't going anywhere fast and the share price will sit or drift lower.
Assumption based on today's market price. Anytime secondary offerings are made, they are not sold at market, ALWAYS a discount, probably 20 to 25% discount to market. Use todays price, not 6 months from now as no-one has a crystal ball.
That particular S3 filing is the secondary offering...the primary offering is for $100m, all they need to do after the 6.7m shares are sold is file an additional S3 to print more shares of the primary offering up to $100m. Thats the way I interpret it...so figure $3 share/$100m...33m shares. And with 1 for 1 warrants...thats another 33m shares unless they expire 5 years from now.
For so much hype on this board, has anyone noticed they filed to sell $100,000,000 worth of common shares in August? That would add at minimum 30 million common shares, and possibly another 30 million from the warrants issued. This type of money raise scares me a bit since it feels like it was coordinated with a the fantastic p2 result release. Essentially we have a market cap today of $400m fully diluted. Does this concern anyone, since it doesn't seem to be widely known. Granted if they can raise the money they have whats needed to possibly get through a phase III trial alone...
Yeah sales guidance would be nice. But last time they absolutely blew it...they might make their last forecast this year finally. We need some news on confirmation of phase III client being approved, the smart money can read between the lines. Unless they are looking raise to more money, which they shouldn't need for a year(?), no real benefit to hype the share price until they can prove it.
Oh nice call! Would be great if Cryoport was mentioned in a press release with that...looks like the market is starting to realize it, 2.60 last trade:)
Take a look at cyrxw, the trade-able warrants, the bid is at .70. If memory serves me right that's the highest 'bid' I've ever seen, even when the stock ran up to 3 bucks. Maybe someone knows something that we don't, as playing the warrants with leverage will provide a much higher return when the stock appreciates. Why else would someone pay .70 for warrants still 1.57 'OUT of the money' on a 2.40 stock? Stock price has to get to 4.27 at expiration to break even...
Sounds great on the surface, but there was no details on HOW effective it was. Was 1 of 32 positive? Were all 32 positive(not likely)? Did it just slightly slow the progression in most patients? If the smart money was satisfied with that press release this should have doubled...I just don't think there was enough detailed result information.
They did a 40 to 1 reverse split...
At least it didn't tank after earnings today. The tarnished silver lining is they alluded to commercialization discussions for a client or two. If that happens we may finally be seeing some traction, however I'm still concerned with their cash burn and potential need for more capital. We can hope one of the phase III clients get approved soon and the market shows some appreciation for it...a cash raise at $5/share hurts WAY less than a buck fitty.
Maybe NEXT quarter.
For anyone interested, Kite Pharma gives some good guidance in their presentation at the link below. It would apprear they are anticipating and heavily gearing up for commercialization(early 2017?). They also talk about the critical nature of the logistics involved, which I believe is Cryoport. Think around clide 108 is where they start talking about the logistics...
http://edge.media-server.com/m/p/4c5ei5je