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They can wait until after FDA approval and do it higher if that is the route. Realistically since they cannot do a large direct to consumer until Q2 2020 the cash and cash flow they have now should negate need for a raise this year, and perhaps script growth will negate need by Q2 2020.
Apparently that was the best press release ever yesterday! Whomever wrote that should get a major bonus.
I think if you take only certain letters out of the press release is spells out "Novartis Buyout" LOL
It's gone a lot further on this press release then I would have thought, but it did consolidate a long time and I did expect that it was coiled for a big move up at some point, just not the catalyst I was expecting.
Supposed to end trial in September, not sure how long to collect data, analyze and get results out. They have not put anything on Evaporate in the recent monthly presentations, maybe a question for IR
There must be a ton of short covering, the news today is not exactly shocking, Jefferies I believe recently said they had 97 million in revenue for Q2 estimate based on scripts reported to date.
Adding sales people maybe makes WS believe Amarin is thinking approval is going to happen but approval has always been almost a guarantee.
Cash flow positive is a surprise, might take risk of capital raise down a bit so that was positive surprise news.
But adding it all together it seems like a 15% run is a little unwarranted from the news, with light trading the next few days be very interesting where it goes and into next week, I expect new shorts will come in, they always seem to after a run like this and as others have covered I think the balance of shorts covering vs. new short positions should even out.
The good thing is I think we finally broke out of the $17-19 area we have been stuck in, now just a question of what range bound area is up next (until more news) is it 20-22 or 22-24 or where. All good stuff today!
HAHAHAHAHA! Tickled the funny bone with that one.
Those public comments are so ignored and so useless. Unless you have 100,000 people adding the same comments.
It's because the quarter just ended, they have done this at year end as well, during last Q they got PR news, which they said may change guidance, so they have strong visibility to 2Q and PR news so I think it's mainly because Q2 ended and they probably get lots of questions on Adcom and raising revenue so good time to release an update. I doubt there is much more thought put into it outside of that. It's positive news all the way around, let's get it out there.
Might be at least next week for analyst revenue revisions, nobody working Friday so that leaves basically tomorrow and rest of today for the people that are working, usually takes a little time to review and run new models, always possible you get updated revenue tomorrow but would not be surprised if these are delayed due to the big vacation/holiday week.
Of course they are technically cash flow positive but lets's see cash flow statement for Q2 and see how far they are from being cash flow positive from operations. A turn in the trend would be great and I suspect the trend will reverse in that area but still be solidly negative.
Weird they say the royalty instrument is about $74 million, it was that same number for 1Q. Should be about $68 million now.
I don't know about that, Yahoo list 5 analysts with revenue at 365 with low of 350 and high of 379, these will be bumped to $400 which is almost a 10% bump, companies that revise 5% or more generally perform better over time. Algorithms like estimated revenue changes that are strongly positive.
There at $172 in revenue if they just equal Q2 for Q3 and Q4 as it gets $100 million next 2 quarters and that's $372 total, so guidance of $380 on the low end seems a bit low considering 4Q is always highest Q and will have label expansion in place for all of 4Q.
$400-450 is a better range so I expect at 3Q earnings they would bump full year range a bit again, or at least narrow the range and move bottom end up.
They probably have right to tell doctors about study but different than full advertising to the general public.
Anything is possible but by putting it in the press release my guess is they will not have a full campaign until that 2Q time period.
Hoping they get an early expanded label though not counting on it to be early, expedited over standard was the big one and FDA generally goes to the full date or close to it. The sooner they get expanded label the sooner they can start getting lower tier coverage on insurance which, IMO, increases sales easily, cheaply and significantly.
2q 2020 for direct to consumer not great....is what it is but puts a limit on 2020 earnings, at least extra reps will be fully trained after expanded label and ready for full 2020 sales effort.
The note:
“Vascepa will generate billions of dollars in revenue in the years to come, the history of other therapies for chronic conditions suggests that growth builds over multiple years”
Is typical JT conservatism but also realistic, they will take years to get inventory up, sales up, GIA is a long term play with all the long term risks and rewards.
They should do a billion in revenue in 2020, how much more than that not clear, but that knocks another year off before generics. Maybe EVAPORATE trial results gives a big boost that will help bridge the gap to direct to consumer advertising, Amarin has not really mentioned these results coming in recent presentations or press releases at all.
Cash balance growing is nice, see what happens with all the new hires. Revenue was above estimates, raised guidance is nice, wish low end was set at 400 million.
That article lacks many details but makes Pfizer look like poor negotiators. They even throw in this unnecessary comment
"Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, new to the job of buying companies" as if even the writer can't believe how poorly Pfizer negotiated.
Good job by Array management and board, played that really well, hopefully if Amarin goes down that route they act similarly.
Entertaining post as always, hope you can keep your head from exploding!
I can never respond directly to one of that persons posts, just can’t do it. It’s amusing in that you know they are straight out lying, they know they are straight out lying, yet they can’t stop lying. Had “really great” experience with that with first wife ha. It’s also amusing to read some of the posts and they say nothing, you could pull quotes that make your head spin like the time they said our report to FDA May make FDA do something, or not do something, we don’t care about SP yet we hide behind false identities and ONLY have 1 company we talk about and we pay to get our posts pinned to the top of boards
It’s harmless entertainment but like a 4 year old repeating the same thing over and over because It got a laugh the first time they did it, it does gets old in a hurry.
All those posts and opinions by that poster are gibberish, they don't even have anything to do with Amarin most of the time. Vascepa is getting expended label, the people behind that nonsense know that as well. Which means they are shorts trying to get out of a position without driving price up or trying to scare retail trades out there position so they can accumulate at as low a price as possible. The third option of just being a complete lunatic cannot be dismissed.
You don't have to be in this game long to realize the pure BS oozing from those posts.
I think we all agree it seems like no Adcom just from a timing perspective but because FDA has not notified Amarin one way or the other by now, which seems like they do in many cases, just leaves everyone guessing and trying to figure out why they just don't say no Adcom already.
I think tomorrow is the last chance to schedule one but how they do that without scheduling it in the normally no-Adcom August time is beyond me unless Amarin gets a lucky exception to that as well and they get one in August.
Hmmm, I wonder if i was the 45 day one I posted yesterday that I misread as 30 the first time, unfortunately my browser history deletes every time I close the work browser, and also cannot re-find what I thought I read, Mea Culpa I guess...
Sorry Googled it earlier, can’t remember what I searched to find it, was on computer not have access to right now, if I find the news story again will post it, was within last year. ITCI was 48 days it looks like, came across that one trying to find the other
Pretty sure those are guidelines they shoot for not rules, a quick Google search you'll find 30 days notice of AdComs so 55 days is not set in stone.
Doesn't each department within CDER determine the ADCOM. So if Division of Neurology has an Adcom scheduled it has no bearing on the Division of Cardiovascular and Renal Products so I would think as long as the Division of Cardiovascular and Renal Products has set one for August 7 then they would be chronological and will not schedule one before that but if it's another division I don't think that would apply.
Maybe I'm wrong on how they schedule but I swear I read it is by department somewhere but will defer to someone with better knowledge/memory if they have better info.
Price targets are generally a year, though some firms it is 18 months, I would guess is a 12 month price target but if they have access to the full report from the broker it would likely say.
Not sure that makes any sense, maybe he meant 60 days before the PDUFA Date they need to have the Adcom by? If they gave Amarin 60 days notice on July 29 they would then have the Adcom on the day of the PDUFA Date?
Of course he adds "Practically speaking, it would have to be well before that. " so he's just doing simple math and trying to say if they have an Adcom before the PDUFA Date mathematically it mush be no later than 60 days before the PDUFA date.
It's kind of a dumb tweet because he ignores the need to have time from the Adcom to the PDUFA Date. And his 60 days notice for an Adcom is not supported by other Adcom's that have gone as little as 30 days from announcement to Adcom.
So to sum it up AF was drinking heavily before that tweet.
From our end I think the end of June is a solid cutoff, if nothing this week no Adcom seems pretty close to 100%. I guess theoretically they could announce July 15 for Aug 14 Adcom and be within the 30 days notice and about 6 weeks from PDUFA but seems unlikely they would make everything that tight and give notice that late.
Ever? I thought the CEO once stated he had more offers than employees?
Why would it be a threat to Amarin, they are currently Phase 3 in lowering Trigs above 500 mg, no comparison to RI outcome trial. If they ever could fully fund an outcome trial they might be a competitor in about 8 years.
So do we think after the 100% guaranteed to happen expanded label is finalized will generics companies just take it to court and refuse to settle with the long shot victory chance because why not? Is there any possibility Amarin settles but moves the date from 2029 to like 2028?
Also after the 100% guaranteed to happen expanded label is finalized will annoying people stop posting gibberish?
He stated by end of June at GS as the time to receive a notice
So, the question is, when would we expect notice of an ADCOM?
FDA guidelines would suggest that we’re in that window of time right now where they should be making that decision. With a September 28 PDUFA that would mean if they are going to have an ADCOM or most likely be in August. So, they should be beginning to form that committee here. Relatively soon. So, it would surprise me if we didn’t hear one way or the other. You know, before the end of June, we are proceeding on the assumption that we’re going to have one just due to the enormity of this new indication, but I can't predict exactly when.
In order to try to teach my just turned 18 YO about taking some of her money and putting it away for retirement, I funded a Roth IRA for her with $2,000 (with lots of talk about her investing % of her summer job and future job money every year thereafter) and bought :
500 Amarin on 2/26/18 at 3.747 in her account
Not sure such "easy money" gave the lesson I was going for......
Touché to JL on 10 bagger, you are correct, I should have framed what I meant in terms of time frame and the general point I was making but, alas, I did not. Victory to you fine Sir!!
That’s how it works, new hires get options knowing risk of BO, company does not know if after FDA approval and maybe the generic court cases what max offers are so they have to assume GIA, otherwise low ball offers and now behind the eight ball on GIA. There is no deal until they have a signed deal, until a nap point you can never assume that you’re going to have a BO
I’m sure JT has pre-programmed sales to sell the options when exercise and that was set long ago
I think that lines up with recent analyst comments that settling generic suits would push stock to 25. Based on the recent comments and the court docs it seems things are heading to a positive resolution before January. If they get to January and no settlement that overhang might become worse.
I think they are solid with the patents, the Teva settlement also went towards that, lots of reasons for generics to settle and hold off...but, agree, nice to have that settled for share price increase.
If they are >95% set on selling seems like 50% BO is too low unless that 50% number increases if you give a timeline thru 2020.
If management and board are that set on selling, I would be 100% convinced they would sell for whatever the best price is, under the assumption there are more than 1 interested party and offers have been discussed in general terms which I'm 99% sure has happened.
$200 a share gets me early retirement, I'd want $50 but expecting $40.
I see $100 the upside GIA or down the line BO if everything goes very well.
Pretty much agree with your other percentages, I think the up front for Europe would not be enough money as I think if GIA they want the royalties higher down the line and would take less up front.
Dilution would be a solid short term hit to stock price, don't even want to contemplate another raise emotionally, Half a billion raise would likely dilute 6-8% depending on exact price. I'd expect a 10% hit to stock whatever price it was at, yes, temporary but still painful to watch, hopefully it's near $30 if that comes to fruition.
Well you're safe on the if closed after Sept 25th even if they announced a deal tomorrow
Yes, I want to complain, I have totally expected this balloon to pop after next election, but was hoping sooner so Amarin could double in value and could cash in and buy markets at low. If GIA I guess that strategy will still work but like most I just ant things great now, screw later!
The deficits need to be dealt with at some point and goosing a good economy and expanding deficits means more pain later, short term thinking is the biggest issue with the economy. The economy was great before every recession ever, Yay for short term thinking!
What am I going to do when Amarin sells out at $50 a share? Buy markets at all time highs! Boooo, market highs, booo temporarily good economy!
I hope my complaint satisfies your request!
Andrew Beyer, excellent name drop, unfortunately by time I was old enough too many people used speed ratings, I created my own Excel spreadsheets and manly use pace calculations to analyze how race would play out, lots of speed horses and one off the pace or closer was always good as was one speed horse and all closers, in addition at Rockingham Park, May it Rest In Peace, you could eliminate horses by looking at them and occasionally catch one now and again that was clearly ready to run.
I was young and spent almost every weekend at the Rock, I want to school with Matt Thornton, I believe that’s correct name, been so long, who became the on air handicapper for the Rock but I was lucky enough to be very computer savvy and that was my big advantage back then.
I don’t really play options, I sell calls and puts. I think once in my life I actually bought calls, a long time ago. When I thought I could retire at 35 with a Catalyst coming up for a stock I had doubled my money in a Year and thought I would take all profits and just by calls. 50k in profit all on calls and sold all stock, Needless to say they did not win the big contract and the stock tanked and options were worthless. I think that’s the last time I bought options
I do think I’m pretty bright! Ha! That’s why I have done well the last 5+ years as I honed my skills. Of course my last big loss was Amarin back at the last Adcom but you don’t learn to become a good investor unless you’ve lost a time or 2 and I’ve done that for sure. At least I was smart enough to get back in with some shares before the release of results. And not just keep the stock for years when dead money.
Amarin’ don’t come along like an 8 am bus is true but not even a 10 bagger yet, not that rare, holding them “rare” stocks long enough is the rarity.
I like playing the market, I used to do well back in the day at the racetrack but BORING, spend 10 hours to bet 1 or 2 races if you really want to make money at it but similar to the market you competes against others, you don’t have to be smart just smarter(emotionally as much as technically) than most. Like you say most people statistically can’t even beat the market. Been there, get why, glad I do insane dd and have a nice run of years going, hopefully continues but Amarin does get to 40 then To double it would need 80, maybe there will be other options that might make a potential double quicker at that point,
Government bonds right now not a great investment but if there’s a major unexpected event people with them might get lucky, I prefer using due diligence and non emotional investing to earn much more than those expected returns a high percentage of the time.
Please No on dilution. They can do conventional with rate so low these days and the big ramp up of sales that quickly follows would pay that off in a year max, not even counting cash from partnering. Large capital raises need to be a thing of the past.
They were FDA approved in 2014, had a bump above 20 than back to $7 in 2016 before they turned it around, extremely risky and even today with 1 billion in sales forecast in 2020 (similar to Amarin) they have a 15 billion market cap, so a BO at 15-20 Billion seems to cut off 5 years to get there based on that comparison.
There is no apple to apple comparisons to Amarin here.
Upside is higher GIA for sure
Downside is higher with GIA
Time value of money also a factor, you get $40 a share today or $40 a share in 2023, you can take your $40 a share today and get 3+ years to make more money with it.
There is risk in any stock reaching future revenue goals, Amarin is no different a BO takes risk completely off and at least doubles your money, you should see the appeal in that for many.
I guess you can't tell from available info, is the closed period really have a set end date at end of year? What other closed periods have there been and how long have they been for? Closed periods are common but is one that lasts 6 months common?
Why would it be closed post FDA approval date, is it just caution in case runs late and they just lift it early if on time? If there there really is an end date called out?
Could BO talks add to the need for a closed period in this case (not main driver but part of the reasons for?)
To me it doesn't change anything regardless, definitely does not reduce change of a BO after approval. But the info out there is not detailed enough to know if it has any extra meaning over other closed periods or not.
Today's news has zero bearing on Amarin BO potential and possible suitors. NVS seems the most likely candidate for various reasons followed by PFE second and but no different from where it stood yesterday.
Nope. Would not work that way in this case. They are unrelated companies. It's not like they tried to buy Ford and then bought GM. If the deal makes economic sense they will do it, Amarin is a drug that will be profitable for BP end of this yea and have no pipeline but multi billion sale sin the near future. The other BO is for a pipeline and own the line hope for return.
I'd say not even remotely any correlation.
All stock deal seems affordable? No?