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No, unfortunately. I used to have a Merrill account, and for some reason I stayed on this one mailing list. All other buttons that gave me access beyond the password gate are inactivated now.
Merrill: Allergan (AGN) has been removed from the US 1 list today. Today’s closing price will be the removal price for the stock.
Words like "indicate" and "clinically meaningful" imply that the study was a success. But it wasn't--at least not by commonly accepted biotech standards requiring statistical significance.
And maybe that's why the stock was not able to hold its early gains.
Prosensa Holding (RNA), up 35% after reporting what the company called "encouraging" results from a Phase II trial of drisapersen for the treatment of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy..
Currently bid 8.47, not a hell of a lot of volume, though
WSJ
"Designed by Apple in California" is a slogan familiar to anyone who has unwrapped an iPhone. But the U.S. technology giant's recent moves underscore its increasing dependence on overseas markets to fuel growth.
On Tuesday, Apple announced that Chief Financial officer Peter Oppenheimer will retire after a decade in the post. His replacement is Luca Maestri, who joined the company only a year ago after a two-year stint as the CFO of Xerox. He also boasts a long career of deep international experience at companies such as Nokia Siemens and the overseas divisions of General Motors. Apple took pains to emphasize both Mr. Maestri's overseas resume and the "seamless" nature of the transition, and it is noteworthy that the company chose to handpick an outsider rather than promote from within.
This came a day after The Wall Street Journal reported that Apple is in the midst of a hiring burst in Asia, luring engineers from companies such as HTC to speed up development of devices like the iPhone and iPad. Sources told the Journal that Apple's operations staff and engineers in China now exceed 600. China has gone from being less than 5% of Apple's quarterly revenue at the end of 2009 to 15% in the last three months of 2013.
Apple today is a much different company from the one it was when Mr. Oppenheimer took the CFO job. In fiscal 2004, Apple was primarily a computer company with nearly 60% of its $8.3 billion in revenue coming from the Mac. By fiscal 2013, which ended in September, revenue had increased more than 20-fold, with the majority of that coming from the iPhone. Mac sales were less than 13% of fiscal 2013 revenue.
But while Apple has become a global force, business in its own backyard has slowed. In 2004, nearly half of the company's revenue came from its Americas segment, and 84 of its 86 retail stores were located in the U.S. Now, the Americas segment constitutes about 37% of revenue, and 40% of its retail stores are in foreign countries. Revenue in the Americas segment actually declined by 1% year over year in the company's most recent quarter. And don't forget that about 78% of the company's $159 billion cash hoard now sits offshore.
A growing number of investors believe Apple has become a slow-growth tech giant that should milk its cash machine. So it is no surprise that the company is beefing up the foreign ranks of its workforce and its executive suite in an effort to capitalize on markets with better growth potential.
Ultimately, though, Apple's future rests on its ability to keep spinning up new gadgets that customers will want to pay top dollar for—no matter where they live.
Write to Dan Gallagher at dan.gallagher@wsj.com
Seems to be worth a glance
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/04/health/a-powerful-new-way-to-edit-dna.html?ref=health?src=dayp
Not too many in double digits though.
MDVN was harassed by a lot of downgrades but I didn't think the results were 15% haircut bad.
Charade, yes, but one that still benefits from tacit Administration support.
GoodJohnHunting:
it's actually the metals platform theory that differentiates PBT2 and other drugs that simply remove Amyloid.
Master:
the primary endpoint as defined by PRANA is amyloid removal
Leaving any metals behind?
I'm partial to the observation that as time goes on, FB gets old. I am not short, for good reason as a glance at the chart will tell you.
My only short at this time is GRPN, also as a glance at the chart will tell you. Self destructive business model,
$15 winds up suddenly at $2.
ARIA is not a perfect example since it took more than a day to reach into the 2's, but the overnight drop was expensive - from 18 to 6.
And those who got seriously damaged were the over-concentrated. Like me, though from the ARIA board it seems there were worse examples as a %age of portfolio.
I was actually thinking of adding something the effect that there are a lot of cooks tasting that broth
Snipped from the FT
Iron ore is closely followed by the financial community because it is seen as a proxy for industrial activity and construction in China, which imports almost two-thirds of the world’s seaborne trade.
The commodity is also critical for the profitability of many large mining companies, including BHP and Rio, and leading steelmakers such as ArcelorMittal and Baosteel.
It was among the few commodities to register a year-on-year increase in average prices in 2013. However, benchmark prices for delivery into China have fallen by more than 7 per cent to $124.40 a tonne this year.
Many analysts believe 2014 could be the year in which rising seaborne supply finally overwhelms Chinese demand growth, sending prices sharply lower. In a recent report, UBS said supply increases from companies such as BHP, Rio and Vale would push the seaborne iron ore market to a surplus of 94m tonnes this year from a balanced market in 2013.
lol, and I'm selling my remaining stub this afternoon - waiting on more clarity on the significance of the results.
Biomaven on SI classifies them under the heading of P-hacking
For the record, Rhabdomyo is actually Latin for skeletal muscle. So, that’s why it’s called Rhabdomyosarcoma.
Greek, actually
I'd guess that Rousseff's (deservedly) evil influence is fully discounted at present prices, and that a Rousseff defeat would be hugely positive in the short term.
Merrill:
Zoetis (ZTS) has been removed from the US 1 list today. Today's closing price will be the removal price for the stock.
A buy signal from the FT
Brevan Howard, Europe's largest hedge fund manager by assets, is shuttering its $2bn emerging market fund, following poor performance last year as investors began to scale back their exposure to developing economies, writes our Hedge Fund correspondent Miles Johnson.
The decision to close the emerging market fund, which lost about 15 per cent last year amid rising concerns about the impact of tighter US monetary policy on the economies of Brazil, India, and Turkey among others, was made over the weekend, people familiar with the situation said.
FT
US toymaker Hasbro is one company that will be paying close attention to the state of emerging markets.
Its sales in emerging markets climbed 25 per cent last year, Hasbro said on Monday, while those in the US and Canada dropped 5 per cent.
Hasbro's struggle in its domestic market helped send the toymaker's full-year profits down to $286.2m from $336m in 2012. Revenues slipped to $4.08bn from $4.09bn a year earlier.
<snip>
OECD report in FT. (CLI = composite leading indicator)
The CLIs continue to point to economic growth firming in the United States and the United Kingdom and to growth above trend in Japan.
In the euro area as a whole, and in France and Italy, the CLIs continue to indicate a positive change in momentum. In Germany, the CLI shows signs of firming growth.
In the emerging economies, the CLIs point to growth around trend in China, Brazil and Russia, and to growth below trend in India.
Schwab does not categorize TWTR as "hard to borrow" which implies it may have an inventory. Surprised me.
This may change tomorrow following the Barron's piece.
WSJ on AZN
(I thought Helen Thomas was dead)
By
Helen Thomas
connect
Updated Feb. 6, 2014 1:30 p.m. ET
AstraZeneca, the laggard of Europe's pharmaceutical sector, is closing in on its rivals. But the U.K. drug maker has some serious running to do.
The clearest progress has come in Astra's pipeline. The company said Thursday that it has 11 molecules in late-stage clinical development, beating its target of 10 by 2016. Moreover, thanks in part to a series of acquisitions last year, there are now some reinforcements behind them: Astra has 19 candidates to start phase three trials this year and next. Early stage prospects in oncology add longer-term potential. Astra will have data this year on its immunotherapy assets, a hot area in which Bristol-Myers Squibb, Merck & Co. and Roche Holding have had most attention.
The trouble is that 2014 looks like a slog. Astra expects revenue to fall by low-to-midsingle-digit percentages this year, from 2013's $25.7 billion. That is despite the fact that taking full control of its diabetes joint venture with Bristol should add close to $1 billion to Astra's top line, according to Deutsche Bank. DBK.XE +1.65%
Nexium, a gastrointestinal drug with sales of $3.9 billion last year, could face generic competition starting in June. And not all of Astra's businesses earmarked for growth are racing. Sales of respiratory drug Symbicort rose 10% last year, but the launch of blood thinner Brilinta has been hampered by a U.S. investigation into its trial data.
Rebuilding a pharmaceutical business also doesn't come cheap. The marketing push behind Astra's efforts to expand in areas like diabetes and emerging markets meant sales, general and administrative costs jumped 14% year over year in the fourth quarter. So far, helped by a substantial restructuring program that Astra expanded Thursday, the company has kept research and development costs in check. Spending was up 1% across the year and 2% in the final quarter. That may become harder as more drugs require large, expensive late-stage trials.
Astra believes it can reach sales in 2017 that are broadly in line with last year's. But earnings per share are still forecast to be a fifth lower, at a time when the rest of the sector should be expanding. Meanwhile, at over 14 times 2015 earnings, Astra's discount to the European sector, about 25% a year ago, has been all but eliminated. The risk this year is that Astra's recovery runs out of steam.
Write to Helen Thomas at helen.thomas@wsj.com
What's your take? Does it run counter to any takeover hype (stick a fork in it as AF holds)?
If there is to be a takeover such generosity while talks are presumably going on or at least imminent raises serious ethical questions in my mind.
At the time of the dirty drug hit, Iclusig was regarded by most as a pristine drug, and that included Pazdur. It turned out that AF was prescient and Iclusig was not pristine. I would have saved myself a lot of money if I'd listened to him instead of joining the chorus of condemnation, as unfortunately I did.
I do not speak to AF's ethics or his relationships with the short camp - only to that one call.
I'm still very long ARIA, btw, longer than I was on Doomsday, or Doomsdays I should say, since there was more than one, all painful.
Could you identify them, with links, please.
Handicap the master of tergiversation? Are you kidding?
It would be very interesting if there was a way a way to track the effectiveness of the Iclusig/Lovenox combo in keeping Iclusig's stand alone SAE's at bay. Are there other such cases?
There may well be preliminary discussions with interested parties, but it there was a fleshed out offer from a financially solid party, it would have to be disclosed.
WSJ, interesting, the dog didn't bark.
WRAP: The most striking element in Wednesday’s statement from the Federal Reserve accompanying an otherwise widely expected decision to cut $10 billion from its monthly bond-buying program was its utter silence on the recent turmoil in emerging markets. That has translated into further selling in many developing countries’ currencies Thursday and drawn attention to the divide between an improved economic outlook in the U.S. and Europe and a downturn in the emerging-market economies that were previously the leaders in world growth. The latter’s woes were displayed in a downward revision to HSBC’s already weak January purchasing managers index for China.
The Fed’s silence stands in contrast to the extent to which its actions reverberate around the world. Even the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to hold off on a rate hike today was partly attributed to the impact of the Fed’s decision. If the U.S. central bank is determined to stick to a path of reducing the extraordinary amount of monetary stimulus it has pumped into the world, then those countries that saw giant speculative inflows arise from that liquidity provision will continue to see those flows reverse. That will be painful and could easily create a dangerous contagion effect. It’s a dicey situation for all central banks, including the Fed. (MC)
Please don't remind me of the referenced post where I said the MOS/POT/AGU family was coming out of the doldrums.
HES is a Merrill top pick for 2014 together with Halliburton in oil services. If I knew how to copy a PDF file, I'd send the whole list.
It appears that more sources will come out over the weekend telling everyone the rumor was just that.
It appears? Appears from what? Any source for that assertion?
It reminds me of Alan Abelson (of Barron's) in the 90's - there's gonna be a crash, there's gonna be a crash - eventually he was right, but in the meantime his followers missed out on a historic run.
(That said, I'm not really long much China right now....)
Earnings per share?
What company are you babbling about?
WSJ
WRAP: European purchasing managers indexes are up, China’s down. That bifurcation captures the shifting engines of growth in the global economy, as the second-biggest national economy’s investment and construction machines runs out of oomph while the U.S. and euro zone show the best signs yet of having put their crises behind them. In fact, it was great relief that the euro-zone data came in as strong as it did. Until then, Chinese data had sent waves of concern through global markets.
One important question is the opposite of one that existed two years ago: Is the recovery in the advanced economies strong enough to deliver enough spillover growth to China that it can avoid a hard landing? That depends as much on the shape of consumer demand in the U.S. and Europe as it does on how far China has traveled down the path of reorienting its economy away from exports. (MC)
JNJ from the WSJ
J&J Needs to Earn Investor Loyalty
By
Spencer Jakab
Jan. 20, 2014 1:11 p.m. ET
Americans may pride themselves on eschewing titles, but investors still revere their corporate nobility.
Expect Wall Street to doff its hat again to Johnson & Johnson when it reports fourth-quarter results Tuesday. It hasn't lagged behind analyst expectations in over a decade and should meet or beat the $1.15 in earnings per share analysts foresee, up from 91 cents a year earlier.
Not just a storied company, J&J is a member of some elite clubs, one of 30 Dow components and a smaller fraternity that still sport triple-A credit ratings. Perhaps most significantly these days, it is a "dividend aristocrat," one of the roughly 10% of S&P 500 companies that has raised its payout every year for at least a quarter century.
In a world starved for reliable income, J&J stands out even in an industry known lately for generous dividends. Its share price has trounced rivals Pfizer Inc., Merck & Co., GlaxoSmithKline PLC and Eli Lilly & Co. in the past decade. It is the only one of the group to beat the S&P 500.
But J&J's pedigree isn't quite what it's cracked up to be. When major blockbusters began going off-patent a little over a decade ago, drug manufacturers took a scalpel to their costs and began spewing cash. No one else in the industry is a dividend aristocrat. But J&J is last in that group in total cash returns to shareholders through dividends and buybacks over 10 years, relative to its debt-adjusted market value.
Buybacks are lumpier than dividends, yet nearly identical in financial impact. And J&J's recent acceleration of repurchases may be fleeting. It embarked on a huge repurchase plan that ended recently to soak up shares issued for the 2012 acquisition of Synthes.
J&J deserves credit for its exposure to medical devices and consumer products on top of pharmaceuticals. That will soothe the sting of patent expiration in major markets for top drug Remicade between 2015 and 2018. But that balance is amply reflected in a multiple of debt-adjusted market value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization that is a fifth higher than peers on average.
J&J has had a great run, but further outperformance will have to be earned, not inherited.
People like Dilma always get religion a year or so late, when the harm has already been done.
There's no reason for ARIA not to hit $8 and beyond.
Could you lay out your reasons why it should?
Ugly word, but the concept may have validity.
There was an article somewhere a couple of days ago talking about the "fragile five" - South Africa, Turkey, Indonesia, Brazil and India. Of these Turkey and South Africa were said to be the most fragile. I've been adding modestly to IDX and bought TTM last week.
FT, two days ago:
Reversification" sounds like an awful neologism. Maybe it is. But the concept behind the ugly term is attractive.
"Diversification" is the idea, often heralded as the key to long-term gains, of reducing risk by investing in all kinds of assets. In recent years the emphasis has been on placing cash in emerging bond markets to pick up higher yields, as bond markets in the developed world are suppressed by aggressive monetary easing as well as low growth.
Reversification - a term coined by ANZ, with few followers so far - is the opposite.
Now that US growth is picking up, Europe appears to be stabilising, and the Federal Reserve has begun winding down its bond-buying programme, ANZ argues that investors will dump EM bonds and come back into developed world equity markets.
Back in June, ANZ analysts said:
Some reversal of the previously strong diversification thematic is likely to be permanent. The world is healing.
ANZ even has a Reversification Index to track developed market equity flows against emerging market bond flows. It pretty clearly shows a change in trend in recent months (see below).
The theme is playing out within Asian markets this month. The latest EPFR data shows $3.3bn of cash has moved into Japanese equity funds in the last two weeks, while investors have withdrawn cash from emerging funds for seven straight weeks.
ANZ commented today:
We see capital flows continuing to work against Asia and other EM currencies, as funds flow back to developed markets, in line with our reversification theme.
Ugly term or not, it's worth pondering.
Comment, Emerging Markets, Fed tap
FT
After data in December showed Brazil's economy shrank in the third quarter of last year for the first time since 2009, the central bank's IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for gross domestic product, showed economic activity fell 0.3 per cent in November from a month earlier.
The market had been expecting an increase of 0.1 per cent for November.
The surprise contraction - driven by a fall in industrial production - comes just two days after the central bank voted unanimously to raise its benchmark Selic rates by a larger-than-expected 50 basis points to 10.5 per cent.
The aggressive move is aimed at tackling the country's high inflation, which hit 5.91 per cent last year.
However, Friday's disappointing growth data is likely to renew the debate over Brazil's inflation vs growth conundrum.
While Brazil's sluggish economic growth has so far had little negative effect on employment levels, the fear in the market is that another rate hike could become the proverbial straw that breaks the camel's back.
So far successive interest rate increases have done little to ease inflation - which has been exacerbated by the weak real and a run-up in government spending. As such, should the government continue prioritising inflation over growth?
With presidential elections coming up in October, it's a question that Dilma Rousseff and her team are probably losing no small amount of sleep over.
Economy, Brazil