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If I may, may I ask you a question or 2?
What do you believe is a good pps? In relation to-- What pps number would you say your satisfied that the pps has met your investment goals. Meaning, at what point would you say any higher pps would be beyond your expectations -and at what time frame do you have this expectation?
curious on your thoughts,GLTY
Banco de Cordon Umbilical
INTERNET: www.bcu.com.mx
PHONE: 1-800-900-9900 or +52(55)55201216
OFFICE: Mexico City
STORAGE: Mexico City
COMMENT: Website in Spanish
SERVICES & DISCOUNT OPTIONS:
History of transplant patient Karla
Banco de Cordon (BCU) is an independent company; they also own a laboratory in Brazil.
BCU recommends cord blood collection after the delivery of the placenta, using a syringe to draw blood out of the umbilical vein, because this method results in a higher collection volume.
Banco de Cordon is accredited by the Ministry of health in México, and by the COFEPRIS (Federal Commission of the Prevention of Health Risks).
Shipping is included in the cost of the contract.
BCU uses trained laboratory technicians to manually separate the stem cells from the whole blood.
Final storage is in a blood bag with two compartments plus two small testing portions. The bag is immersed in the vapor phase of liquid nitrogen.
Total first year fee of USD $975 includes the first year of storage.
Payment plans available; also discounts for pre-paid storage.
As of May 2010, Banco de Cordon claims an inventory of about 20,000 cord blood collections and has released 4 transplants
Nobody gets sucked in. We all make the choice to either play to win, or cut or losses and take a tax write off. There are no victims here.
Naaahhh.... CEO has the money to survive another year for sure.
I understand why your frustrated. Anyone on the board that says they dont share your frustrations is a liar. (or at least isnt being honest with themselves)
IMO you have to put your frustrations in perspective. There is nothing wrong with the company in a stability way, nor is ther anything wrong with the industry.
The news on the Embryonic ban is disturbing as far as the shame of delays in the bringing forward of life saving procedures. Which is signifigant, for obvious reasons.
As far as what we are invested in, its a boon. What better scenario could Cord industry have? Where is all that money going to go? Non-controversial research- right?
What stays in the news while the lawsuit goes on? Stems-right? What better free publicity can the cord industry get?
CEO is creating a very solid foundation. He should be complemented for same.
CEO's answer today shows he is cognizant that the structure needs to be corrected. He said "there is no silver bullet" - he is talking about time.
IMO he is going to try something other than a R/S. There are 7 billion shares. Will it work? For those who choose to stay after it goes back to 2 Lincolns, are going to see. May even hit a Jefferson.
Which IMO is definately this year.
If not, if you bought during dilution and don't get out at 2, then there is nothing to complain about, except greed. Even if there is a share reduction, it wont go over 70/1. If you hold will still see a real nice profit.
If it works and there is no share reduction. Then I will be the first to donate to CEO's bronze statue fund.
Hickory, Dickory, Doc - The mouse has started to run up the clock. I cant wait for it to stike twelve. GLTY AIMHO
Remember a dog foams at the mouth when he smells the food, not when he is eating it.
Profitablity is #1 according to CEO answer.
Unless I read the quartley wrong, the expectation of near profitability is end 2Q 2011. I wouldnt expect to smell the food until then. I think according to MRL research HCA expects to go public buy spring 2011. AIMHO.
The Lowdown on Strategic Investments
Its a little long, but IMO very worthwhile reading in light of the CEO's answer. IMO think it would be wise for us all to reread MR. Long's excellent research regarding CBAI and HCA. I would also keep an eye on The German Red Cross. I believe a good quality, substative dabate has happened on this board over the last several days, which prompted the question to the CEO, which prompted a very intriguing, informative answer from him. Kudos to the board. AIMHO GLTA
This kind of cash infusion can be a boon to your small business, but beware: There can be complications
By Tom Taulli
A fast-growing company recently called me up for some advisory work. One of its main competitors—a multibillion-dollar company—was making overtures for an acquisition. The sides started to talk and found they had both synergies and major disagreements about valuation and strategy. So the discussions moved to another approach: a strategic investment.
Such investments are the lifeblood of the venture capital industry and an increasingly popular tool for large companies. Some even have their own venture capital entities, known as corporate venture capital, or CVC, arms. Perhaps the most famous is Intel Capital, which has invested $7.5 billion in about 1,000 companies since 1991, according to the company. Notable transactions include investments in Clearwire, Broadcom (BRCM), MySQL, Red Hat (RHT), and Research-in-Motion (RIMM).
CVCs usually have their own Web sites or micro-sites within the parent company main site—and they are valuable resources. Here are some links:
•T-Mobile Venture Fund
•Chevron Technology Ventures
•Nokia Growth Partners
•Motorola Ventures
•Intel Capital
Financial Gain Not the Only Reason
If a company does not have a formal CVC arm, it can be difficult to find the right person to approach about making a strategic investment in your company. Keep in mind that some companies, such as IBM (IBM) and Cardinal Health (CAH), avoid strategic investments altogether. To see which companies do make investments, take a look at the National Venture Capital Assn.'s member list.
There are myriad reasons for strategic investments. But interestingly enough, financial gain is usually not the top priority. Instead, a company will often make a strategic investment to get a "window" on new technologies or to promote its current business.
Take Nokia Growth Partners. This CVC focuses on opportunities in "mobility, communications, and the Internet." Some of its investments include Kyte (a video system for social networks and mobile phones), Morpho (mobile graphics), and ViVOtech (electronic payments). Or look at the pharmaceutical industry. Major companies like Merck (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE) make strategic investments in biotechnology operators to fill their drug pipelines.
Strategic Investors Allay Customer Fears
While strategic investments come in many forms, there are some generalities. For example, a strategic investment is often a minority stake and part of a syndicate of other investors (usually venture capitalists).
Another key point to keep in mind: Strategic investments are typically focused on ventures that are beyond the startup stage.
O.K., so why take a strategic investment?
One key reason is credibility. It can be extremely difficult for a small company to sell to major customers. But, if there is a major strategic investor involved, then the fears should subside. If anything, the strategic investor can leverage its own customer base and make introductions.
Thus, it's important to craft a go-to-market (BusinessWeek.com, 5/31/06) strategy which includes extensive deliverables. The strategy will have to cover the following: How many customers will be contacted? What is the expected conversion rate? Will there be revenue splits or commissions? There also should be constant communication with the strategic investor. After all, big companies can get bogged down in bureaucracy.
Provides Substantial Infrastructure
Next, a strategic investment can validate a new technology. One example is INSIDE Contactless, which is attempting to build microprocessors for the emerging industry of near-field communication. As a result, the company snagged strategic investments from Samsung Ventures America, Nokia Growth Partners, and Motorola Ventures.
A strategic investment may also provide access to substantial infrastructure. For instance, Intel Capital encourages networking among its portfolio companies and holds events and workshops across the world. Another benefit is getting access to technology and product road maps.
Of course, despite all the benefits, strategic investments can have complications—and could possibly wreck your company's prospects. One area to be careful about is control. In some cases, a strategic investor will try to negotiate an exclusive distribution arrangement. Obviously, this can limit the growth potential and make it difficult to sell the company.
Guard Your Intellectual Property
This is not to imply that exclusives are always a bad thing. With pharma deals, these clauses are expected. After all, if you strike a global distribution deal with Pfizer (PFE), you should have enough market coverage for your product.
Another tricky problem is the mechanics of sharing confidential information (BusinessWeek.com, 4/2/07). What if the prospective strategic investor takes your valuable intellectual property and then walks away? Well, this is why you need to retain a top-notch law firm that can structure solid confidentiality agreements. It also helps if you have taken steps to protect your intellectual property, such as with patents. Before negotiating, you should have a comprehensive intellectual property system in place.
Finally, a strategic investor might ask for a so-called "right of first refusal" (ROFR) for an acquisition. Simply put, the fear is that a competitor will make an offer for the company. If you agree to this, it means it will be difficult to sell the company to anyone other than the strategic investor. In other words, this could ultimately reduce the valuation on a potential sale. So, if you want to get the best return for your company's shareholders, it's imperative you get rid of the ROFR clause.
Bottom line, a strategic investment can be enormously beneficial, especially if you need to conquer a new market. It requires lots of communication and planning and time, but it can definitely be worth it for the long-term value of your company.
Tom Taulli is a noted finance author and blogger.
I agree, I hope or banter has helped the board. Good nite to you, talk to you soon.
Good enough. I'm really trianed as an Irishman. I only know two sayings that mean anything, Erin Go Braugh. If they dont like that, then its póg mo thóin.
good smiles 2 u. I hope were all winners.
LOL, white Burgundy. I'm not trying to convince you today, I just hope to get you thinking about hte real issue.
GLTY-- avec le vin il ya la vie
All in good board debate, your skirting the issue. That's why I asked you to answer the question direct as an acomplished CFO.
Were not talking about O/S per say, were talking about a billion shares -20% of the company in shares and options, that is continuing today. If this continues, if 7 billion shares are released, and there has to be a huge R/S. Unless you can tell me financially how Cord storage revenue can fill a 7 billion share gap. I would be very interseted to see those numbers.
WHAT ARE THE NUMBERS? You know, its your/mine $ -- has this been justified?
Humpty Dumpty had a great fall didnt he? Wasn't it because he was top heavy?
GLTY
I dont understand your defensiveness. I, as you well know have supported his moves. Have no problem with them. Have had always a problem with the options. You don't? If not I would ask an explination as an investor how you justify them. If you can convince me, I won't say another word about it. My inklinking is you will have a hard time justifying them.
To say, "if you dont like it, sell,your shares", is total NONSENSE, an talk like that should be eliminated from this board. WE all want the company to succeed. If a board member questions something, it shoud be discussed on its merits. Not dismissed as if the board memeber is anti CBAI, time to GROW UP! Qestion when need to and compliment when appropriate.
Let me ask you this, if I may. Do you think 7 billion authorized shares and the 5 billion outstanding, which you say yourself were disappointing 1/4 numbers, is justification of the continually awarding of shares and options to the top 5 is appropriate, and justified? Your a former Big Blue CFO.
Dont spin what I ask, Please answer the direct question.
All in the utmost respect to you and this company. I have always appreciated your comments to this board and have never questioned your loyalty, please don't question mine by telling me to sell my shares just because you don't like my inability to put the CEO on a pedestol, on a company he sold to me, you , and everyone else on this board.
AIMHO - GLTY-- AND FRIENDS WE ARE!
Your vision is skewed IMO.
You cannot look at this stock as Google, or Pizer, or Apple, or enrter the name for dramatic growth.
Understand what Dew says, If your young , by and hold, as it will make you rich.
If your not, play the swings, as CEO hasnt figure out financing, to the detrimente of us all.
AIMHO- GLTY
The GOOD, The BAD, and The UGLY.
Alots Gone on in the last week or so. Mr. Long is the board leader, for sure. He makes the board 1000 % more informed.
Without his reaearch the board would be a less informed place.
Let's look at CBAI as 3 different things
The Past ----
It comprises a company that hs alot of potential but one flaw the CEO is good at many things, except favorable financing.
The Prsent-----
CBAIis diluting to pay the bills. There are 5 billion shares O/S with another 2 billion on reserve. for approx 7 billion. CEO has been awarding top 5 LOTS of shares and options
Future---
For every share diluted. There is an expectation that the return value for the share holder is higher than the cost of dilution.
During dilution CEO awarded top 5 a great deals of shares and options. This is no longer CEO company, it is Ours! Can we really have a future, as investors, if this continues? Where is performance tied to these grants? Its now our company, shouldn't we be questioning this?
Thoughts?
IMHO GLTYA
sorry Super post was for pitmann not u
the info you provided is from 08 , splitting shares does nothing for investor value- nothing personal, just keeping it real
Thats why Gernmany is the best deal. Realize China is a 5 year contract(look to the patent expiration date)
5 years.
China, is revenue. Germany/ south america are foundations.
Never forget same.
GLTY
because its been don before.
Dont worry about putting yourself out there on revenue. Put yourself out on the cost of revenue, how much do you think that is?
Thank for your very insightful comments on the subject. you have obvious direct insight on the psyche of newborn parents. I agree with you, I think after all the preperations a couple makes prior to birth, all they want is to have a beautiful,healthy, bouncing baby. Rather than A beautiful, healthy, bouncing baby that has a predisposition to diabetes, Hodgkins disease, heart disease, storke, breast cancer, etc....kind of takes away from the moment doesn't it.
It has been one of my concerns regarding the mandatory decision to either store upfront or not (only one chance) as I believe it has great potential for the answer- NO. How many cars have you bought from a carsalseman who use this approach? Do we really have to use this approach, or could we possibly become stronger if we look at it in a different way?
The sales tactic this necessarily employs, is one of fear. Which it naturally has to be, because if parents dont choose to store prior or at birth, the chance to store is gone forever. Or at least is no longer individualized (if donated).
I dont know if it would be economically feeasable to do, but I wish the CEO would atleast explore the possibilities.
I would much prefer a CBAI sales model, where if need be we take the cord upfront for no charge, or maybe A nominal (Reservation of Rights fee) $100-200, to preserve choice, and give the parents up to a year to decide to private store. This relieves the pressure, of" buy it or lose it", and allows for a much softer more educational approach to the sale.
If you agree with China's 11% market saturation projections, at this point in storage, then 89 out of 100 parents are choosing not to store. This is a very big potential market.
Do you think if 11 of that 89 had the choice over again, after taking junior to the Dr. a few times, after reading enough articles in their new subscrition to parenting magazine, after they hear of some child in juniors daycare that develops a complication, when they have replenished their bank accounts after all the cost involved with having a child, when the euphoria of anticipation of new life has worn off, would choose to store?
If so we just doubled the market, by simply giving the parents breathing room for the decision.
I think that sales technique would look something like this-
-- We ask the parent up front if they want to store, we present the different programs.
-- parents decline.
-- we say no problem-- If you like we will accept the cord, and individualize it for a year. We would also offer - for a fee-to test the cord(DNA test kit) for any potential pre-dispositions. If after a year, and parent still decides not to private store, the cord would be transfered to a public bank. Were it could be utilzed as first come first served.
(We would charge a fee to the public bank for the year storage and processing, to recoup are expendutures, and obtain a profit likely not the profit of private storage, but still profit.)
The parent may still decline the DNA test kit-- but I would think 11 for sure would let us store it for a year for a nominal fee (sort of a option to store).
Say a month or so after junior bounces out, we call the parents, let them know their cord has been processed successfully. We ask how juniors is? Oh he's wonderful, had a little this or that, Dr. gave him some medicine- he's fine now.
Sounds like a pretty good opprotunity to offer a test kit, or the chance to private store. Seems like a good time to inquire if any family member is interested in being tested for pre-disposition and compatibility with juniors cord.
Say they still decline, and this process repeats every couple of months (6 times a year). We now give them 6 times to say yes to storage, and yes to DNA testing. (It only takes one yes), rather than only having one chance.
The pressure of the decision now switches to the last call. On the last call, we inform the parent that juniors ability to access his stems, or a matching family memebers ability to access juniors stems is lost on X date. The date it would get transfered to the public bank.
How many of that 89 would you think would at some point over that year choose to store? IMO I think at least 11.
Why would a public bank like this? It defers their upfront cost of collection and processing, yet gives them steady access to already processed cords. Additionally CBAI creates a growing information database of individualized cords, which (I'm not sure the legalities) is another potential revenue stream. A very important one.
If during this year, as more and more DNA test kits are sold, and people start storing their individual DNA samples with us. I'm not sure how exactly the matching process works, but if a cord is up for donation and the parent isnt private storing. We cross reference are DNA samples with our stored cords, and say unrelated Steve is a match for juniors cord, could the cord be transfered to steve for storage?
Would this be cost prohibitive to CBAI upfront? I don't know. if We have a relationship with a public bank to assume ownership after a year, and we profit from same, I dont see much risk to us, but it does open are doors very wide, to those who would have stored had they had the choice over again.
I see the DNA test kits from a different angle than you do. I dont think they are designed primarily to appeal towards testing of junior(although definately are for this) I think they are more geared toward juniors extended family, to see if they are a match for juniors cord. Where if multiplication as Mr/ Long is suggesting is going to happen pre-freezing, gives, say, juniors 40 year old uncle, whose DNA test kit shows his propensity for cancer a chance to get a matching set of juniors stems for himself, or to get the cord himself if juniors parents dont want it.
IMO if the stems are the gold they seem to be, then the key to revenue is controlling (not necessarilly ownership, but there is room for same) as much of the gold as we can afford.
I think the DNA test kits are a step in this direction.
AIMHO, GLTY
Thanks, for your thoughts. Rain is gone mostly, but they are still winding it down, Rains debt is still there.
Thats why I mention it. You semi-bought the debt, so did I.
I, like you are less concerned about 7 billion shares, we both hold enough shares to weather a very big R/S. I am more concerned in the 1 billion in shares/options that top 5 have. Your less concerned about same. I would offer you to read my "options handcuff" post for a good perspective of why options can be very harmful to the shareholder.
If a $5 dollar company share only rises to half its value due to dilution, for CBAI a $2.50 pps, I would take it, I'm sure you would also. Is CBAI a $5 company? Cord Blood China is. Why are they and not we? If according to Mr. Long's information, are roots run deeper.
What is really holding up the pps? On the board we like to blame the MM's. Are they really to blame?
You seem somewhat flippant about the the number of O/S shares. They dont seem to matter to you.
My question/concern is how do we grow out of this montrosity, not of dilution, but the billion in options of the top 5.
What other company in the banking industry has this many O/S, with this many concentrated options?
Cord banking is going thru a great consolidation, as we are told. Does this mean the survivors are going to prosper?
In 2009-2010 monetary banking has been going thru a great consolidation, not due to profitability, rather due to insolvency.
Yet the purchasers havent fared in better than the insolvencency they bought.
Cord banking is doing the same thing. CEO is buying companies that are on the verge of insolvency, just like CBAI was prior to dilution. What makes us beleive the purchase of 3 insolvencies( understanding the companies we bought are barely on the good side of solvency.) Will equate to one solvent company?
If you respond and I dont, dont take offense its because I went to bed, I'll responfd tommorroew. : )
IMHO-- GLTY
;) I always appreciate your perspective, I have bought almost as many post-dilute.
My point is to understand what truly will move the pps.
You been around a long time. Do you really think CBAI is going to go from negative revenue, to maybe 3-4 million positive. Maybe, this 1/4 to 100's of millions by end of next year? Really?
Your a board stalwart, whats your take on Mr. Long's connections? Are we really one annoucement from CBAI becoming, lets say, the next Intel. (about same amount of shares @ $16/sahre.)
Whats to the moon 4 U?
Is CBAI this hidden gem, waiting to be dicovered? Or is it a company that has alot of debt issues (now understood as dilution) trying to make a foothold in an expanding industry.
You know what I beleive from my first sentence in this post. What I believe is meaningless, What you believe is what I'm interested in?
Thanks for your thoughts. GLTY.
Thank you Michael for the CBAI history rundown.
IMO its a little short of the history. Really it started befoe that with a marketing company called Rainmakers. That company was going broke and had debt. CEO and wife from a chance encounter of a cord client moved from marketing to cord storage company with the purchase of Cord Partners.
Your timeline from there is basically correct. How to understand it as an investor, is the Rainmakers debt has been with us since 2003.
The understanding of this companies debt. IMO is to understand this company.
The CEO has been transfering the same debt for seven years. Again the CEO has been transfering the same debt for 7 years.
With the hope of ultimately growing out of it.
That hasn't happened yet, but in the mean time CEO has found a better source of debt, Dilution. Eliminates interest payment and timelines for debt repayment.
So what value does a pre-dilution shareholder place, not a shareholder of Rainmakers, of which there were none,- on CBAI.?
The pre-dilution shareholders started with Rainmakers debt, transfered to Cord Partners which eventially became CBAI.
I would bet my shares, which I hold millions, that 99.99.99% of the posters on this board are post dilution shareholders.
If they say they are not, I would ? their credibility.
So the main perspective on the board is from a post dilution shareholder.
The pre-dilution shareholder was buying a penny stock that is a sub-penny stock now. So he was just buying cheap shares in what he thought was a promising company.
So if he hasnt sold, and his inkling is correct all a pre dilution shareholder has had is an awesome opportunity to purchase cheap additional shares in the same promisng company.
My questions 4 U R this. (Answer as many as U want)
Does the CEO have any obligation to this kind of shareholder? If so what? If not Y not?
The CEO in transfering the debt, has transfered 20% (1 billion share) of the payment of debt to himself and the top 5, did they have this amount of equity in the debt to begin with?
This much concentrated share/options- off the back of dilution, creates a very difficult problem for the pps. Was the awarding of the options done in the best interest of the shareholders? Or was in done in best interest of the top 5 ? Do you have any problem with this?
There are 7 billion shares authorized with 5 billion outstanding- whats your thought on this?
Do you really think the Insurance Companies are going to let the government tell then what to do?
Do you believe MR. Long's premise, for which his conclusions are based, that the key to CBAI's fortunes, is the goverment is forcing Insurance Companies to pay?
Do you really think that is long term sustasianablr plan? Are you, as Mr. Long is banking on the government paying CBAI's bills, or at least forcing IC to pay. Do you think that will last, for the long term?
Curious on ur thoughts,
AIMHO, thanks.
Hey, DianebRN--IMO DNA testing kits are a good thing for CBAI.
I dont think they will necesarily catch on with the general public right away. They will probably get some of the "Richard Simmons group" -in one of my earlier post-, in a retail way. Where they call up and order the kit.
Personally, I dont think its that controversial, but there still seems to be some controversly about it, as the Walgreens story shows us.
insert-text-here
It seems the FDA in the Walgreens story is tyring to police some of the Snake Oil Salseman, as stem/DNA technology explodes.
Pills are a realitive new delievery method for medicine. In the 1800's US - medicine was many times adminisered in liquid or powder form. Lot of Snake Oil Salesman - sold alot of beverages to lots of people touting to cure all what ales them. ALot of times did more harm than good or did nothing at all- or at least got them drunk.
DNA testing I'm sure keeps improving in its accuracy, its been around awhile. Since the Human Genome project I'm sure many strides have been made in testing for different things.
As they describe CBAI's program, the program may play out like this:
A storage contract is sold -- CBAI offers the family members an opprotunity to get tested to see if they hav a propensity for a disease and for a possible match to the upcoming new baby's cord. So say- 1. uncle, 2.dad, 3.mom, 4.grandpa, 5.brother, 6.cousin, could all get there DNA tested to see-wht their risks are/ if they are a match to baby.
If they are, and, if CBAI has the technology to expand cells prior to freezing. They could offer to 7.create, and 8.store a set of cells for any match that wants to pay.
If they don't match - then they can choose to 9. save their DNA sample so as more family 10."buns-n-the-oven" come out, they can be tested to be 11. matched against them, and 12.expanded if they match.
I see 12 different revenue potentials just in that example. That doesnt even take into account, a whole slew of other groups interested, over time, in testing.
If they were going to launch testing kits at walgreens, shows there is a mass market potential. I think it fits nicely into what they are doing, and see potential very good revenue, as it sounds as if it has a low cost overhead cost.
I am surprised that mom and baby arent getting it as part of storage. It may ultimately become a perk for storage, if competition is fierce.
Remember, if the use of cords continues to expand, then the value of the cord will continue to go up. Fee's for sevices around the cords will either go up or down depending on volume, demand, and competition. In storage the cost are relatively fixed. If fees go up, then were dancing. If fees go down, then we have to make it up in volume, and/or expansion of services.
One revenue stream that kind of ties in, is the actual dna information, and cord information. Do you know of a national data base for the DNA/ cord information for a match? Is there a central database? Is it part of the NBMR? To me there would seem to be a create value in controlling and owning the information, as I would think there would be a fee for searching for a match?
Any thoughts?
AIMHO- GLTY
I agree with you that is huge! Just as in pps , as in stems, multiplication is what its about.
If it becomes the leading technology for stem expansion, and CBAI holds the patent. If the industry grows like expected, and stems grow in utilization, there might not be any share reduction needed.
So I'm clear on Bioreactor- We own the technology? And the technology expands cord blood, prior to freezing? We license the product? Or we use it to do expansion in Vegas? Or both? What kind of revenue do you see from that?
----
Different subject-- Do you think Duke's resistance has anything to do with Dr Kurtzberg being on their research board?
Thanks.
Cancer Setback for Mandi Schwartz
IMO -This is a good article to read. Read it thru it talks about some very interesting things about stems.
This will be a very good story to follow. If its successful (I'm sure all of us here think the odds are in her favor).
She just may be a PR catalyst to bring cords into the public understanding. This story has alot of interseting elements. - Sports- pro/college, Ivey league, Age, Beauty, Agresssive cancer- marrow based, Close match from unrelated baby cord. Terrible setbacks, break through procedure. Lots of good opprotunities for media attention from non-typical sources. STAY TUNED! GOOD LUCK MANDI!
Schwartz will need more chemotherapy before undergoing stem cell transplant Saturday,
08.14.2010 By Mike Morreale - NHL.com
Setback for Mandi Schwartz
The sister of Blues' draft pick Jaden Schwartz has experienced a setback after finding a stem cell donor: cancer that had been in remission has resurfaced.
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It appears the cancer that had been in remission for almost three months has resurfaced - for a third time - within the immune system of Mandi Schwartz, the sister of 2010 first-round draft choice Jaden Schwartz.
Schwartz, who was scheduled for a stem cell transplant on Aug. 27 at the Seattle Cancer Care Alliance operated by Fred Hutchinson Cancer Care Center, University of Washington Medicine and Seattle Children's, must now undergo further chemotherapy in order to go back in remission so a date for the required stem-cell transplant can be finalized.
According to Sam Rubin of Yale Sports Publicity, the stem cell transplant that Schwartz needs to help win her battle against acute myeloid leukemia - a cancer that starts inside the bone marrow and grows from cells that would normally turn into white blood cells - will include a breakthrough procedure pioneered by one of her doctors at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Care Center.
The stem cells needed for transplants like Mandi's come from the bone marrow or peripheral blood of an adult donor or the blood left over in the umbilical cord after a baby is born. In order to limit the risk of complications, the stem cells must come from a donor who is a close genetic match to the patient.
The cancer needs to be in remission, however, in order for doctors to proceed with the transplant.
She was first diagnosed with the blood cancer that has been destroying her bone marrow in December 2008, just days after assisting the Yale women's hockey team to a 4-1 win over Brown.
The chemotherapy that 22-year-old Mandi underwent back home at the Allan Blair Cancer Centre in Pasqua Hospital in Regina put her in remission for a second time. She was then discharged from Pasqua Hospital on July 11 and made the trip to Seattle from her home in Saskatchewan by Recreational Vehicle.
They then met Dr. Colleen Delaney and their transplant team at Dr. Irwin Bernstein's Clinical Research Division lab. Dr. Delaney, an oncologist and researcher, has been conducting a unique clinical trial using cord blood for the last four years.
Delaney confirmed for Rubin that in 2002, researchers in the Bernstein Lab found a way to increase the amount of stem cells in cord blood by rapidly growing the cells on a protein called Delta, which activates a gene that keeps the cells from maturing into more specific cells. With the increased amount of stem cells involved in the transplant, engraftment is likely to happen more quickly.
As was reported on yalebulldogs.com, Schwartz' reaction to the news of her relapse was inspiring. She had to undergo a procedure on Wednesday that took almost five hours but she continued to keep the faith.
In preparation for her transplant, Mandi will have to undergo more chemotherapy and total-body radiation starting the week before the transplant. This part of the procedure is designed to ensure that all of the existing cancerous cells are eliminated and to further suppress Mandi's immune system to prevent her from immediately rejecting the new donor cells.
Mandi's brother, Jaden, was drafted 14th overall by the St. Louis Blues on June 25 at Staples Center in Los Angeles. Schwartz, who will join his brother at Colorado College this fall, was the leading scorer in the United States Hockey League with the Tri-City Storm this past season, notching 83 points (33 goals) in 60 games. He became the youngest player to lead the league in scoring since 1982-83 and his output was the highest point total since Thomas Vanek in 2001-02.
Mandi began playing hockey when she was 6, and was captain of the women's team at Athol Murray College of Notre Dame in Wilcox, Saskatchewan, before attending Yale University.
Complete recovery of Mandi's new immune system would take about a year. She'll be monitored every step of the way through blood tests to confirm that new blood cells are being produced and spend several months in Seattle before she can return home to Saskatchewan.
Schwartz' transplant will utilize cord blood but the need for bone marrow donors remains. While partially-matched bone marrow donors have been identified, the search remains open in finding an even better match, which includes a mixture of German, Russian and Ukrainian decent.
Two weeks ago, another donor who registered at a Yale bone marrow donor drive was called upon and donated stem cells to help save a 55-year old man. This was the second confirmed donation from one of the Yale bone marrow donor drives. Mandi and her family continue to encourage all adults to sign up as bone marrow donors, and for expectant mothers to sign up as cord blood donors.
In order to raise awareness of the need for bone marrow donors, umbilical cord blood donors and assist the Schwartz family with expenses, there will also be several fundraising events organized by Schwartz' teammates at Yale University. Three of Mandi's teammates, in fact, will be biking from Toronto to New Haven, Conn., in "The Ride for 17" (Mandi’s uniform number), starting Aug. 22.
HOW YOU CAN HELP
1. Send Mandi a card or letter showing your support:
Mandi Schwartz
Box 308
Wilcox, SK S0G 5EO
Canada
2. Send donations, checks made out to "Mandi Schwartz", to the above address.
3. Become an umbilical cord blood donor:
Click here to visit the U.S. National Marrow Donor Program's page with information about umbilical cord blood donation.
4. Join the bone marrow donor registry:
Click here to visit the U.S. National Marrow Donor Program's "Be The Match" website to learn how you can request a bone marrow donor testing kit or find a bone marrow donor testing drive near you.
Click here to visit the DKMS Americas bone marrow donor page.
Click here to visit the Canadian Blood Services page.
Click here for the U.S. National Marrow Donor Program's list of International donor centers if you are not in the U.S. or Canada.
I am definately agreeing with you as to the proper road for CBAI to be taking.
In my post you responded to, I agreed its going to be the commercial contracts that are going to move it.
The (parent pay option) or how ever you want to look at it, is going to be stagnant especiaally in the US- CEO has said so. Was one of his reasons he was concentrating overseas for now.
from my post you responded to----
The storage industry evolving in an -individualized way- with the the system of pay and ownership being fluid and complicated, with one sample sitting there costing someone 6k and the sample next to it costing 2 or 3 entities a K a piece (think airline seat) or any other cost/ownership combination you can think of, with the possibility of several ownership changes over the stem's lifetime. Rather than the rigid public-private system that exist today. The risk to us is if the public storer can morph to individualized, quicker than CBAI can get set up (i.e. build capacity and build revenue relationships) to do the same thing. Rather than just being the place where parents store juniors Hope
I totally agree part of the future is the commercial contracts, with those contracts being what will raise the pps, over the near term, and private storing supporting a risng pps over the long term.
A slow steady backbone being built with private storage, the combination of the two is golden and have no doubt it is happening right now, and agree the news of it is just around the corner.
What are the contracts worth? Different amounts. Depends on who is storing and why they are storing.
Lets look at some Raw and rounded numbers-to look at what is the value of storage.
So say I'm a parent who just had a baby, (not worring about the technical order), and I want to store the cord. I'm going to
choose one of two companies.
Either the one with the best deal (best cost + perks)
Or the one with the best deal that I'm most comfortable with. (sales tactics, reputation, trust, etc).
Whats the current market for this?
If we go by Chinese estimates (they are farther ahead than we are). They say that at 11% -their markets at this point become saturated.
In the US private store is a child still growing. - Say it is a 2 year old right now. So say we have 300% growth before hitting 11% saturation.
There are about 4 million births annually in the US -
11% is 440,000 parents willing to pay for their childs cord.
Factoring in competition, say we get lucky and capture 30% of this market or 132,000 cords, and all store under 1st program 2k upfront 100/yr for 20yrs.
This would mean first year private cord storage revenue on 132,000 cords, upfront revenue of $264,000,000 - with 1st year annuity of $13,200,000/20yr annuity of $264,000,000 - for a total storage value over 20 years of 1 year of saturated US market- private cord sales of
$528,000,000 value of 132,000 private cords.
X's that by 10 years - $5,280,000,000 in revenue with $2,640,000,000 being cash (2k up front) and $2,640,000,000 spread over twenty year annuities. Guranting CBAI $13,200,000 yearly annuity revenue thru 2040 A.D. On 1,320,000 stored cords- 132,000 yr for 10years.
Not even talking about China. Say the numbers repeat in Argentina/Germany (given the population differences, but just looking at raw numbers)--- so $5,280,000,000 x 3- $15,800,000,000 over 10 years - privately storing 3,960,000 cord stems or 1,320,000 in each market. or up front $264,000,000 + yr annuity $13,200,000
Each company generating $277,200,000/yr. Combined yearly revenue of the 3 company's for private storage- $831,600,000 - less cost.
I would say thats pretty good revenue. say cost are 50% (I know its high) - will have 3 companies generating about $400,000,000 a year in revenue. Not to bad, I'm sure you would agree.(ther's your buyback cash, although i'm not advocating same.)
Are we going to get 30% market share of private US donors and 2 other markets 11% saturated market for the next 10 years? No.
But it doesnt matter. All CBAI needs is to fill the tanks with anything for anybody for the avg price of 2k/2k over 20yrs, and were GOLDEN.
Where are the 396,000 cords (or other samples) going to come from?
Well we know where- humans (and possibly to some degree animals). The real question is who is going to pay for it? And what is their incentive to do so?
Well, we know why the parents, and any other individual who chooses to store. Health.
I agree to what Karin says, some people dont want to think about it. And some its the only thing in life that matters. Most of us exist in the middle.
Say-- 10%--health nuts---80%- lets smoke a joint/hike a trail---10%--C'est La Vie
Or from--Richard Simmons (I'll store my Cords, my relatives cords, my teeth, my fingernails, my sweat).--to ARNNnold (I have to give up how many cigars? And much does it cost?)--to--Merle Haggard( I'd rather spend it on Marlboros and Jim Beam) --- disclaimer - I'm not judging just using as an example--
So in the US cord market of 4 mill yr/11% saturation= 440,000 yr breaks down at 44,000 on either end and 352,000 in the middle.
Wouldnt even market to the Merle Haggards, that the 44k on the back end and the NBMR- issue.
The 44k on the front you market hard. They are storing no matter even if they are paying. If you can get 10% of the hard cores--which is about the 11% saturation point of Chinesee markets You get 4,400 stems/yr = $8,800,000 + 440,000- $8,800,000 over 20/yr. -Richard Simmons is worth $ 9,240,000/yr.
Merle isnt paying for anything, he will give it to you if you want it, but it better not cost him anything. That stuff doesnt work anyway.
ARNold is where the money is being spent-- and where the growth is. US going to 2% saturation to 11% saturation by 2015 when the industry is projected to be $15 billion, will come directly from this market. Thats where Who Pays?, gets complicated. As stem theraphy success get more and more common place. Cbai will be able to convince more and more ARNolds to store. Especially those who have the resources. CEO is training the nurses how to convince them right now.
5% of this 352,000 cord market is - 17,600 cords-or 4 x's what we get from the Richard Simmons market-
17,600 cords x $2K- $35,200,000 upfront and 100yr- $35,200,000 over 20 years.
IMO thats the slow and steady growth of CBAI's backbone of private store. Those numbers are strictly from the US operations and arg/ger. The CEO's hands are in many other different areas.
I think its obvious why the bulls will win over the long term.
But how do we get to 396,000 ,($831,600,0000-- 3 companys x $277,200,00 each) cords a year - in 2011? I want to drink some lemonade with you.
Commercial contracts.
I'm confident you believe its going to be AHIP picking up the tab. By being forced to by Uncle Sam and his 50 sisters. Thru either underwriting the cost, or mandating the insurance companies pick up the tab.
I not sold as you are that the govt mandates will last, and that AHIP is going to pickup the whole tab by govt decree. AHIP wont ultimately let the govt force them to spend that kind of money. They will go along with everything but what does make financial sense to them, and will find ways to overturn or get sround mandates that dont make sense to them.
I agree AHIP is going to be the major player- but it will be because of the clinical trials, and cost savings of storing upfront.
I also agree, and thank you for the great research, HCA is the stage from which the CBAI play unfolds. I think CBAI has been setting the scene for the last 7 years, and now the story is about to get more complicated.
I'm curious?
From your post Many contracts from many gov'ts, states, hospitals, insurance groups are coming.
(Not debating the HC bill mandate, because your saying the contracts are coming from more than just the insurance companies.)
What economic incentive do these entities have to store cords/ or other tissues? Whose going to own the samples under these contracts? Will these entities be able to mandate that the cord be stored with CBAI? Is their purpose for storing all the same?
Thanks
All IMHO- GLTY
It more as to what you want the pps to be. Rather than a dilution problem. If you are popping champange if the pps hits .024, go ahead and start chilling it, that will happen for sure. If a nickel will get you dancing, that songs less than a year away.
If your going to quit your job at a dollar, dont start pissing off your boss. Under this structure, not happening.
There is nothing wrong with 5 billion shares right now as long as you understand what will happen. It will be shorted, have semi-predictible runs, and be more bear than bull for longer periods of time. If your on the wrong side of bull you cut your losses, but you likely wont get creamed, as it only takes shorts one day to cover with this many o/s as we saw in the .0066 run up couple weeks ago. The short days to cover gives shorts confidence. The thing that keeps it under control is positive revenue. Which hopefully as of Friday is here.
It going to continue to be a shorts- long battle during different periods, for some time to come. IMO at least another year. The logical solution to dilution right now is a R/S-- but that not something thats even on the radar right now. And it shouldnt be. He is using dilution to build the foundation, relationships, and reach of the company. Thats a GOOD thing.
Dilution is here for a while, even if hes not diluting the effects are with us. Doesnt mean shorts will always be in control just will be in control more often and for longer periods than bulls. Take advantage of the swings and hold your core position. Hopefully he can build revenue high enough to where an r/s is in the 50/1 or under range when he takes it to the NASDAQ. Thats will not even be on the radar for another year.
A buy back is definately not in the cards. He is not going to buy back shares using money he just got from selling shares- that would be non-sense. Company's that are sitting on cash from excess revenue buy back shares.
CBAI doesnt have any.
All IMHO, GLTY
Thanks for your facts, I definately agree with your general principles. Your layout would have made Joe Friday proud.
I can understand your interpretation of the Insurance company's (IC) attitude toward stems. I dont agree though they use cost in a sinister or stingy way. IMO -Rather I think the IC look at it- rightly so- more on a cost-acceptance mentality.
Meaning if the treatment is accepted as effective, they will pay for the medically proven/accepted treatment- that is most cost effective.
This is proper if we understand what IC are.
They are basically orginizations that sit on a pile of $. A BIG pile of $. A big pile of money that alot of different people try to get their hands on ALL THE TIME. Lawyers, claimants, Dr's., hospitals, Chiros, government, snake oil salseman etc, etc.
So the IC has to be vigilant to make sure they arent wasting that BIG pile of $, as they want to have enough money to cover their clients needs. Their profits are simply the ability of their calculators to correctly predict the risk.
Very similar to a CBAI shareholder. The have to make good profit, or it wouldnt be worth the risk and they wouldnt have the $ to pay when their calculators are wrong. i.e., underestimating the breast cancer or alzeheimers future cost, or underestimating a new and substantionaly more effective treatment with a higher cost. Or in the case of a CBAI investors -to hold on when their investment goes negative.
The resistence to stems IMO has not been economical per see, its has been more because of effectiveness. The IC is only going to pay for those treatments -under a basic plan- that are proven effective. Exploratory, or non-proven(thru clinical trials) are not something IC generally covers. It may cover the basic plan , anything outside, would be the responsibility of the insured.
Right now stems are still best known for being an alternative to bone marrow. It seems it is progressing in a way that within this decade it will overtake bone marrow as the preferred method of treatment. As long as a similar- and as effective data base exist to match the National Bone Marrow Registery (which if stems arent already will likely be incorporated into it).
I do believe, and agree with you, we are on the cusp of a great leap forward in medicine.
Stems will be a leader in this leap. We shouldnt forget this is not a new industry. It is a mature industry, breaking out. Meaning, there is ALOT of seasoned, connected, and funded competition. This, as far as IC involvement is good, as there is a 40 yr track record of effectiveness of stems.
What is newer is the sources of the stems. The IC are digesting this and determining the cost-acceptable way to proceed. Meaning- I agree with you- public or private is really whats at stake, not IMO a flawed afford-a-cord.
I only think public or private will matter for a very short period of time. IMO is is going to very rapidly move into individualized samples. There is no reason not to. If you are going to store a donated cord. Whats the point of making it anonymous? I would think public or private - the cost to process and store are basically the same. their might be an additional test or label or so, but basically the same cost. The difference more so is simply a software upgrade.
IMO- the real battle is for - Who Pays?-and and Who Owns? (which are related)
In order to multiple the stems, (which I agree is the Holy Grail, there is more than one company doing this) there has to be a base sample(s) which you either own or rent from someone(if the base sample wouldnt be harmed), or you do it as a fee based service for someone.
So if the stem cream producer I posted earlier needs base stems for his ointment tubes, does he come and buy them from CBAI. No, because we dont own them. He may come to CBAI to get them, but someone would have sold them or rented them to the cream co. We may get a fee, but we dont get the worth of the stems.
So who's is paying for the stems to sit in CBAI tanks until the cream co. comes and gets them? Thats CBAI's Billions's dollar pursuit, and our pps ride. That's what- IMO- CEO is really trying to do. He doesnt care where the $ comes from in what combination or what they store. He's simply trying to lock in whose paying.
Whether they be for ointment or cancer implantation. the real effectivness of the stems, I agree, is multiplication- a very lucrative part of the whole process- and almost mandatory for the leap forward. Without x's the stems there is no ointment or pills, and fewer succesful implantations. I dont see a direct revenue line for CBAI in this category, I see an indirect link, very profitable, but I dont see them positioning themselves to be directly involved in multiplying the stems. I wish they would.
I'm assuming, and my assumption may be throwing me off, that the stems are multiplied just prior to use. Where they are taken out of storage, multiplied then used very soon after multiplication. If CBAI isnt doing the multiplying, then I dont see revenue beyond storage (agreeing storage itself being valuable), or if the multiplied samples need restoring after the process for a period of time, an up charge in storage.
If I have this wrong and the stems have to be multiplied at time of processing, before they get stored, - and CBAI will be doing this for an additional fee. Then I see a direct link to this revenue stream and will help you start squeezing the lemons.
You organize the relationship well---
Hospitals + medical devices + storage + biotech = Money
or--
(mining/sales)+ (overhead)+ (packaging,warehousing,delivery)+ (manufacturing/use) = Money -less heiarchy of each steps value = CBAI's cut of the money- less CBAI expenses = CBAI profit or loss = CBAI pps.
Out of your 4 links, unfortunately CBAI's is the weakest, so our cut of the pie is the smallest. As its the easiest link to realign. Fortunatley, storage has one of the lowest cost of the four so CBAI's cut of the pie is enhanced by the lower overhead cost. It also has the most competition. So a storage realignment is realtively easy. Hence are risk as storage investors.
For me as an investor its encouraging to see CEO building these strong relationships with entities more substantive, and connected than ourselves. CBAI will need such contract protection as this industry heats up very rapidly to detemine - who wins public or private. This will be only for govt money/which given the political & economic climate, after November, I dont know how much of the HC bill will be left intact next year, and how much money will be available.
IMO stems are going to be funded thru insurance-receipient partnerships. Where each share a portion and the government benefit is more in the form of a tax credit rahter than underwriting or mandating the cost. With tax incentives for each of the four arms of the process to underwrite the cost for economically incapable receipients.
The insurance companies arent coming on board because they are being forced to. (even though legislation is pressuring this- for now) They are coming on board because stems have advanced to the point where the effectiveness of the treatment is starting(not there yet) to catch and pass todays accepted forms of treatment, at a lower price.
The IC is simply embracing the most effective, industry accepted treatment at the best cost. So individualized storage at a mutual IC-Insured cost relationship- for certain diseases, rather than searching for a public match at a higher cost.
It is the reason why the industry is expected to be $15 billion in 2015, and not 2011. A tremendous amount of clinical trials are going on right now. Their results neg/pos will determine where and to what uses the money will be funneled, and for what medical acceptance the stems will be used. This will determine where the IC very big foot will land in the industry.
Hence, $15 billion in 2015-- When many of the clinical trials will be complete and the results known, digested, and ranked by the medical community. The $15 bill will largly be coming from the IC.
CBAI doesnt care what their use is for,(in a business since) as long as the medical community endorses stems, then stem storage is here to stay, and CBAI prospers.
The storage industry evolving in an -individualized way- with the the system of pay and ownership being fluid and complicated, with one sample sitting there costing someone 6k and the sample next to it costing 2 or 3 entities a K a piece (think airline seat) or any other cost/ownership combination you can think of, with the possibility of several ownership changes over the stem's lifetime. Rather than the rigid public-private system that exist today. The risk to us is if the public storer can morph to individualized, quicker than CBAI can get set up (i.e. build capacity and build revenue relationships) to do the same thing. Rather than just being the place where parents store juniors Hope.
There likely are alot of fees for CBAI to charge in such a scenario. We all know how much money Mortgage Bankers made off fees.
And I do agree with you-- there is much more to the AXMP deal.
I dont know why ,(other than I really like the Red Cross relationship), but my gut tells me the German deal is ultimately the best.
All IMHO- GLTY
Stem cells may hold key for fatal skin disease
BOSTON | Wed Aug 11, 2010 5:27pm EDT
BOSTON (Reuters) - High-risk bone marrow transplants partially cured five children with a potentially deadly genetic defect in which proteins that hold layers of skin together are absent, U.S. researchers said Wednesday.
But one other child died from side effects of a drug used to prepare for a transplant and a second died from a post-transplant infection.
People with recessive dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa, or RDEB, are plagued by painful blisters on the skin, mouth and throat, caused by the slightest trauma that can expose the body to infection and, in some cases, an aggressive form of cancer.
With the new treatment, "there was improved healing, fewer blisters, and their quality of life was positively affected. They could do things they couldn't do before, like ride a bicycle or go on a trampoline," said Dr. John Wagner of the University of Minnesota, who worked on the study.
It was published in the New England Journal of Medicine.
In addition, the patients' improvement progressed with time, he said. All five children who survived showed improvement within 100 days, although the pace varied widely, he said in a telephone interview.
Because of the high risks involved in bone marrow transplants, only the sickest patients with the rare condition -- affecting 1 in 50,000 -- have been considered candidates for a transplant, Wagner said.
Wagner reported on results of the first seven attempts, which took place at the University of Minnesota Amplatz Children's Hospital. Six other children have subsequently been treated with good results, he said.
Researchers are now trying to isolate the cells of the bone marrow best able to fix the defect and join layers of skin.
HIGH COST
The treatment, including the cost of the transplant, is between $500,000 to $1 million. But routine care for children with the collagen defect already costs about $30,000 a year and can rise due to frequent hospitalizations and complications of the disease.
"These kids have horrible pain, chronic infections of the skin, multiple hospitalizations, and systemic infections," Wagner said.
"They frequently can't eat or refuse to eat because of the pain. Often they die of chronic malnutrition and chronic blood loss."
Dr. Jakub Tolar, also of the University of Minnesota, said the treatment was unique because it showed that the effects of a bone marrow transplant can extend beyond the blood.
"What we have found is that stem cells contained in bone marrow can travel to sites of injured skin, leading to increased production of collagen, which is deficient in patients with RDEB," Tolar, who worked on the study, said in a statement.
Dr. Lenna Bruckner-Tuderman of University Medical Center in Freiburg, Germany, said in a commentary that the therapy represented a leap forward but expressed caution.
Because the disease can wax and wane, "it is difficult to determine how much of the clinical improvement in the children was due to transplantation and how much was due to a long period of careful medical attention, protection from trauma, and standardized wound care," Bruckner-Tuderman said.
(Editing by Julie Steenhuysen and Paul Simao)
I agree with your thoughts. I dont CBAI is that company. They are definately for real.
They just have a problem.
They sold all their chickens(dilution)
to buy a seat on the bus (stem industry)
to go to the big city to find riches(aquisition,organic growth ,diversification of revenue streams).
But the bus driver (parent)
is still trying to decide which route to take.(public or private).
Until this is settled, Academia may have settled that individualized is better, but economicaly its far from settled, i.e. the parents willingness to pay at least partially for storage is still not considered the "thing to do".
Right now I thik public storage has taken up this mantra, and is being very successful in convincing parents to donate. This is good as it begins the conversation about the worth and uses of stems.
CBAI is "banking" on the fact as the information continues to come out about the benefits of exact matching, many will choose to assume the cost of private storage. As well as trying to strategically position themselves, in a "cant do without" position, in a high growth industry. Wheres that at? I think they are still working on it.
I think he has used dillution wisely, and definatley CBAI is stronger for dilution. THe resources he has devoted to educating the public thru the nurses, IMO may be his wisest move yet.
AIMO- GLTY
I wasnt saying it would drop on that sale. My point was to put the term "long" into proper perspective.
If somoene who sells at obvious overbought times and repurchases at the inevitable pullback. Are they More or Less of a "long" than someone who doesnt sell a share, waiting for a a larger pps?
I am confident we have a run coming. I am just as confident the contracts wont stabilize the pps. They will move it permanently forward, but it will get shorted again, at a different pps level. IMO this round of contracts (there will definately be more) wont be large enough to fill in a 5 billion share gap.
Curious, as to what you would do? If CBAI next news is 200 mill contract, and goes up by Dec to a nickel, would you start shorting it? Do you think a 200 million dollar contract can aborb 5 billion shares to maintain a nickel? Those who borrowed 10 million shares and sold them in January '10 @ .0197 they made $197,000 (raw) dollars, if they bought them back last week @.005 they would have cost them $50k. Not bad for 7 months. This bout of shorting has about played itself out. Do you think it will happened again? Would you jump on the short side if you saw it happening?
GLTY
I would agree with you if you were talking about a loan. If the return is higher than the interest paid, then its a good loan. When you add shares to a company to raise cash. You are permanently devauling the shareholders interest, unless the entire dillution is removed.
No matter if the pps goes up after the dilution. Dilution has permanetly penalized pre-dilution shareholders unless 100% corrected. Even if it was corrected 99.999%, there would always be a permanent devaluation.
Would it matter if the pps went from .005 to 2 bucks without a correction? Probably not. If you were smart enough to buy lots of the diluted shares, your either rich,Rich,or RICH. so you probably wont care that your shares were devalued.
Do you think were heading to be something other than a storage facility? What revenue stream do you think is going to let us take 5 billion shares to the big board? If none what do you think happens with the 5 billion shares?
Thanks.
Thank You for taking the time to layout your road map.
I agree that is highly likely the relationship.
Who do you think is paying? If I'm following what your saying the insurance company pays, if the govt mandated DNA test prompts the Dr. to write a script.
Then do you think it gets paid under afford-a-cord? Do you think the insurance company pays just the $495 or the whole tab? Who's bank account do you think the 30/month on AF-A-C- will be tied to?
I gather in the relationship CBAI is going to act as the DNA tester and the warehouse, with HCA somehow having the right to duplicate or own the sample in some way. Or have a system set up where if the sample is needed, they duplicate the cells in house. I imagine at a fee to the insurance company.
Sounds like HCA wants to be the go to hospital network for stem therapy. With a 4.6 billion IPO planned, why do you think they need us? Why dont you think they wouldn't just store in house also? What do we have that they need? I know we have tanks. For a IPO that big, a storage facility in one of their existing structures wouldnt seem to be much of an expense, and another source of revenue.
Do you think there is a realtionship to this, and the tube and pill capacity in China?
Do you see anywhere a scenario where stems are processed and sent to China to be turned into some kind of ointment or pill? Or do you think it will be strictly for plantation purposes in a hospital setting?
How big a contract do you see it to be? Do you think the placenta, as they are building clean rooms in LV, will be a part of this also? Will that be a seperate fee structure and a different threshold for insurance pay to store? Do you think there will be an Afford-A-Placenta program?
Any thoughts to where you think the pps lands after this news?
Curious on what you think?
Thanks again for laying out your roadmap. The way you lay it out I definately could see a scenario where CBAI could be bought.
I am trying to digest your information, but I am not sure I am grasping it. If you could help me understand a few of the connections I would appreciate it.
The potential HCA contract- is a contract to store private cord blood? If it is where is the partnership? Can the parents only store with CBAI? What if a competitor is cheaper? Is HCA going to bar competion from its hospitals for private storage? What's the value of a contract? ( other than HCA evocation of CBAI over others, which would definately increase revenue). If we are talking about private storage, with parental choice, What is the value of this contract?
If the storasge is for dr. written scripts, Then what is the value of this contract with HCA? If a Dr. writes a script , thats covered by insurance, then it would seem it is the insurance companies choice on storage. The insurance company wouldn't tell parents where to store. They would simply say how much they would pay, which would naturally benefit the company with the best storage price. If we factor in the finacing of $1500.00 to the tune of $4500.00 over 20 years in Afford-a-cord, do we really have the best rate?
If its for HCA donated cords. who is the contract with? Is HCA paying us and then owning the cord we store? I'm not sure HCA is in the business of cord ownership. Which if this were the case I would help you squeeze the lemons. If so than this means the cord itself has great value. If it does, why wouldn't we go after ownership, as its seesm multiplication of matched stems seems to be a very lucrative part of the whole process.
A story I posted was on a woman who was going to go thru a stem transplant via an unrelated close match. I think it will be an interseting story to follow. If successful, may increase in value donated stems as we a bridging a technological gap.
Hopefully we are in a situation were there are not enough stored cords to determine how difficult a match would be.
A natural increase in the number of stems would likely increase the amount of close-enough matches, as the demand wouldnt change, just the supply as more and more people donate. But the demand really would change as stem-T becomes more and more of an option, as there are now more matches. Which would be very good for CBAI.
Another story I posted is for a face cream, from stems. According to the PR 95% of the people who used said it had an effect. A bunch of Blarney? Maybe. But who are we as shareholders to judge. The CBAI affiliated- China operation is geared to produce, hundreds of thousands of ointment tubes, and hundreds of thousands of pills.
What do you think is going to be in those tubes/pills, given the Asia penchen for herbal and organic remedies?
If they use cords, they will naturally have to get them from donated or bought stems. multiple them, and sell them as to mass market of aging boomers as skin therapies, and whatever therapies.
Whats more lucrative and an easier sell?
Selling Johnies parents that their healthy baby boy might get cancer? Or the insurance company (which is a harder sell than johnnies parents), thats its cheaper to pay now than later? Or johnnies 57 year old wrinkiling uncle/his siblings living in Bejing, or Berlin, or Buenos Aires, or Las Vegas, that stems can- lessen their wrinkles, for ten bucks a month? Maybe a contract where its a product in woman's makeup. Or Like a tube of toothpaste, applied everyday.
Whats the difference between private and public storage?
Two things- Ownership and Information.
Public storing might have a system like -- sample 20-506934 is an American caucasion male, with the rest of the technical stem info.
-- A private store would know that sample all the above plus is Fred Jones sample, and so would Fred Jones.
What would keep a public storer to adapt their databse to add this information, instantly becomong a private -public storer? If Fred needed his stems and he publically stored them. If they knew where they were at, he would natural have access to them as they would be an exact match. The insurance CO would likely pay, at the going rate of 35K. Wouldnt it be cheaper for the insurance COs to just help the public storers up grade their software to individulas the cord, rather than store upfront on a cord that likely wont be used? They then only pay for demand, rather than potential demand, which is a whole lot cheaper. a 1000 potentials @ 495 is 50k.
We should look back a moment to see hoe we got to here. 7 years or so ago CBAI didnt exist. Its an adaption of Rainmakers- an advertising and marketing firm CEO/wife started on credit cards. One of the clients of the comapny was a cord storage company, CEO wife was intrigued. They started CBAI in 2003. Wife sold cord storage, CEO sold advertising. They started the company on credit cards. They ran out of money. 2004 they got an angel for 1 million
2005 -- they went public. raised 5 million. they went broke. 2006 they bought an 800 stem company. Between 2006/2007 they also bought Corcell--14,000 cords- sales of 5.8 mill. 2008- went broke. 2009- raised 7.5 mill (dilution). 2010- raised 16.8 mill (dillution). storing 20,000 stems. With goal of controlling the global inventory.
So the credit card debt is transfered thru dilution, to you/me. The original debt and subsequent debt is still there in the form of shares and a pps of .005, due to obvious shorting due to such a massive offering.
we sit on the BB ,(with full reporting to NASDAQ rules- if you wonder where were going) at 5,000,000,000 shares with -.03 earnings per share. Its just a transference of the original credit card debt.
CEO is going to have to pay off the debt one of two ways. Thru default (R/S) or thru intrest paid, which would be a pps x number higher the last day before dilution. If thats has already occurred (which it has) he owes no other obligation to any "long" that did not sell at that point, as they decided to hold out for a higher interest rate. He owes nothing to those who bought during dillution, they owe him a thank you for cheap shares, he never told you how long you were going to have to hold them.
A lateral spread of shares does not correct the issue. It only adds cost to the debt. A debt at this point can only be paid thru a higher pps, as at this point its the shareholders who hold the debt.
If you try and transfer the debt to someone other than the shareholder, the shareholder- thru a lower earnings per share- ends up paying interest on that debt, nullifying any gain he may have recieved from the transfer of debt via a higher pps. As pps would reflect the new earnings per share and go back to near the pps prior to the debt transfer.
-- IMO the real issue for the investor is the nearly billion in options top 5 have. I posted a good article- callled -options handcuff- does well to explain one aspect(there are more) of problems this many options causes.
Some long investors now are saying I want or I sure wish I would get my loan paid back. Some not so long investors are saying I have waited long enough I want some profit. Thats more their problem as they just took the wrong side for the last six months. They were a bull when the $ was with Yoggi Bear.
A long really is a misnomer. How is it possible to define a long? Other than a tax technical of holding more than a year?
A long is merely an individual position. Without any connection between another individual position. The exit point for each share is individual rather than communal.
If a man hold 16 mill shares of CBAI and another holds 70k both at a price of .005 if it goes to $2 then 16 mill may cah out (he would be a fool if he didnt), where as 70k may hold on for higher pps. If 70k bought yesterday, and 16 mill bought 4 years ago. If the senitment is the rocket is still being fueled, and the true value is yet to come, Is 16 million a long? Is 70k?
What if CBAI goes to .10 and 70 k sells and 16 million doesnt, then it goes back to .005. Then 70 k buys 170k Is it more honorable to hold at all cost, even at the cost of profit? Or can you still be a long an play the inevitable 5,o0o,0o0,o0o share wave?
At what pps price are you going to squeeze your first lemon?
What does controlling the global inventory mean? Owning the cord? Multiplying the cord? Or warehousing the cord? Where's the $? We can be all 3. We can be the 1st two and not the third. But we cant be the 2nd without being the first(unless we cut the owner in, or really unless they cut CBAI in).
CEO wants to be the most respected/signifigant player in stem industry-- In what capacity?-- Storage? Ownership? Processing?--
Where's the $? - How do you get rid of the dilution debt? i.e- How do you get rid of the post dilution shares. Better said, how do you eliminate equity of the dilution buying shareholders? Do you give them negative equity or do you reward them?
Any clarification I would appreciate. Please help me if I'm totaly missing it. Thanks.
Just my opinion- I think heavy buying is going on in preperation for the 10k, which I think is due out by the 13th. If its good, I think we have a strong rise in the PPS over the next 6 weeks. IMO hitting above the .0197 level of the grand opening.
Real-Time Inside Quote Best Bid Best Ask Time of Last Inside Change
IMO somethings definately happening.
0.005 (999,900 shares) 0.0051 (5,000 shares) 10:20:23 AM
Last Sale 0.0051 Prev Close 0.005
Change +0.0001 % Change +2.00
Daily High 0.0054 Daily Low 0.005
Volume 11,663,624 Last Trade 12:19 PM
Real-Time Level 2 Montage MMID Bid Price Shares Date/Time
DOMS 0.005 5,000 Aug 6, 2010
ETMM 0.005 5,000 Aug 6, 2010
BTIG 0.005 5,000 6:40:33 AM
VFINF 0.005 5,000 8:30:10 AM
NITE 0.005 5,000 9:38:06 AM
AUTO 0.005 5,000 10:55:20 AM
CSTI 0.005 5,000 11:58:13 AM
MMID Ask Price Shares Date/Time
NITE 0.0051 5,000 9:56:15 AM
ETMM 0.0051 5,000 10:38:49 AM
CSTI 0.0051 5,000 11:58:13 AM
VFINF 0.0051 5,000 12:39:07 PM
AmStem Announces Positive Results From Consumer SteMixx(TM) Study
Company Says Study "Exceeded Expectations"; Set to Begin Formal Clinical Trials
Aug. 9, 2010,
SAN FRANCISCO, CA, Aug 09, 2010 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- AmStem Corporation (OTCBB: AMST), a leading provider of biotherapeutic and cosmetic stem cell products, stem cell collection and storage expertise and access to nanotechnology vital to stem cell research, announced today highly positive final results from its preliminary consumer study of SteMixx(TM), a new facial skin care product derived from secreted stem cell proteins and other natural ingredients.
David Stark, President of AmStem International, Inc. said, "The responses from the trial have exceeded our expectations and thrilled everyone associated with this product, showing that 100% of our consumer testers are happy with SteMixx(TM). All of the testers responded to our surveys, which is quite unusual, and over 95% of them reported some sort of positive result using SteMixx for just 10 days."
The instructions for the consumer study were to use the five specially designed applicators for two days each, then "rest" the skin for three weeks before filling out the final survey. The 21 testers were instructed not to use any other skin care products (except cleanser and sunscreen) for the full month. Those with recent facial procedures such as a light or deep peel, dermabrasions, or injections were excluded from the study.
Stark said, "This clearly demonstrates that SteMixx(TM) will have an enthusiastic following when we leverage these results into a full-blown marketing campaign. The testers were very specific about improvements in their overall youthful appearance, with over 80% reporting noticeable reductions in the appearance of blemishes, discoloration, fine lines and wrinkles. Unexpectedly, one woman reported positive results using the product on her hands, which was not meant to be part of the study, but provided an encouraging insight into the versatility of SteMixx(TM)."
Some samples of comments made by participants (reprinted by permission):
-- "People think I look much younger."
-- "It did a great job evening out my skin tone. My skin looked very
healthy."
-- "I used it on my dry and sun damaged hands here in Arizona. It
smoothed out my skin and made it baby soft and faded my sunspots. My
hands look 10 years younger."
-- "Great results. Received a lot of compliments on my skin."
-- "I like it a lot. My skin is much much smoother and finely grained.
The bumps from little cysts are gone."
-- "My skin looks great . I do look younger."
-- "Normally my skin is very dry and flaky when I don't use moisturizer.
I noticed with this product, I didn't have that problem."
Based on these early positive results, AmStem confirmed it has engaged a labeling consultant for the flagship SteMixx(TM) product, with the intention of making it available for retail consumer use in the U.S. as soon as possible. The Company is seeking an advantageous and regulatory-compliant niche in the estimated $21 billion U.S. cosmetics market.
AmStem is already planning the first formal clinical trial of SteMixx(TM) in the United States.
Stark said, "This study will help decide what claims we will make in our labeling and advertising of SteMixx(TM). The principal investigator will be Dr. Shelly Friedman of the Scottsdale Institute for Cosmetic Dermatology. The study is expected to begin enrollment this month immediately following approval from an Institutional Review Board (IRB).
SteMixx(TM), along with an extensive line of cosmeceutical and hair restoration products, was developed by Dr. Han Hoon, CEO of Histostem, Ltd., in Seoul, Korea. Histostem is a 90% owned subsidiary of AmStem Corporation. Histostem operates one of the largest cord blood banks in the world with over 80,000 units stored for personal and unrelated transplant uses.
SteMixx(TM) has been approved by the Korean FDA as a "functional cream" for the treatment of facial skin disfiguration associated with signs of aging such as wrinkles. AmStem's professional studies are for the purpose of validating these claims, which have not yet been reviewed by the U.S. FDA.
About AmStem, Inc. AmStem, Inc. is a corporation registered in the State of Nevada with offices in San Francisco, California and Seoul, Korea. The company is a world leader in the area of stem cell research using stem cells derived from the umbilical cord immediately after birth. The company has 19 U.S. and international patents related to stem cell processing, application and clinical treatments. AmStem owns one of the largest cord blood stem cell banks in the world with more than 80,000 cord blood units stored in Korea. The facility in Korea is highly accredited including Korean FDA approval (KFDA). The units of cord blood are processed and stored by the company for use in unrelated transplant for personal storage and use in the family setting for transplant and regenerative medicine. The company is developing a line of cosmeceuticals based upon its proprietary stem cell technology and sourcing its own materials from its expansive operation in Korea. The company has treated more than 800 people in clinical trials for purposes of developing its patent portfolio.
For more information contact AmStem CFO Andrew Norstrud at (813) 283-2556 or Tom Fox at Hawk Associates at (305) 451-1888 or visit: http://amsteminc.com.
Breakthrough reported on embryonic stem cell transplants
08-02-2010
Cha Medical Center
By Kim Tong-hyung
A Seoul hospital said Monday it has created enough new embryonic stem cell lines for use in transplants for up to 25 percent of all Koreans. The report, published in peer-review journal, Cell Transplantation, was touted as a potential breakthrough in developing new therapies to combat difficult and degenerative diseases.
The Cha Medical Center’s study was based on an evaluation of 28 embryonic stem cell lines it had acquired through 2008 and their potential for use in unrelated patients.
The tests for blood and immune matching between the stem cell lines and data from 6,740 donated umbilical cord blood samples suggested that about 16 to 25 percent of possible Korean recipients would find one or more donor cell lines among the 28.
The hospital currently has 43 embryonic stem cell lines and roughly calculates it will need between 100 and 160 lines to cover stem cell therapies for the entire Korean population. Its eventual goal is to establish a stem cell bank large enough to provide embryonic stem cell lines to global patients.
“The results of the current study reinstate the fact that the establishment of banks for embryonic stem cell lines is needed to develop new stem cell therapies. Unlike the more rigid adult stem cells, a single embryonic stem cell line would be more than enough for transplants and therapies in a large number of people, and this makes them ideal for the banks to be based on,” said Lee Dong-ryul, who headed the research team.
“Embryonic stem cells are also ideal for mass cultivation, and with further advancements in the techniques for cell differentiation as well as studies on how to improve the stability of the process, embryonic stem cells could be used for treatment in patients.”
Stem cells are undifferentiated cells that are capable of developing into any of the 200 different types of cells in the human body. They are derived from embryos, umbilical cords, or the scarce stem cells in adults or children.
Embryonic stem cells have garnered particular attention from scientists for their strength and flexibility in differentiation. According to researchers, the list of conditions that might be treated by transplanting tissues generated from embryonic stem cells include Parkinson’s disease, diabetes, spinal cord injuries, heart diseases, and some brain and liver conditions.
However, immune matching is expected to be a difficult problem to overcome, as even in the securing of a carefully matched donor, the risk remains that the patient’s body could still reject the new cells.
US/Eastern Umbilical Cord Blood Donation Perplexing Parents
Cynthia Demos
Aug 2, 2010
New parents have plenty of decisions to make when their child is born. From deciding on a name to picking the right hospital, parents are inundated with decisions.
But, there's a critical decision mothers must make when they give birth about whether to privately or publicly bank their babies' umbilical cord blood.
Marisabel Davalos of Miami is one of those mothers who chose to bank their newborn's cord blood. She and her husband decided to privately bank their babies' cord blood.
"We did it with our first son and with the experience of that was a positive experience that prompted us to do it with our daughter," Davalos said.
A baby's umbilical cord contains unique stem cells that can help patients with a number of medical conditions. That's why parents are urged to bank it at birth.
"Currently we know we can treat a number of blood diseases such as leukemia, lymphoma, sickle cell disease, and they are currently being studied to treat disease such as diabetes, brain injury, heart attacks and other types of tissue damage," explained Dr. Randy Fink, the medical director of The Miami Center of Excellence for Obstetrics and Gynecology.
Fink is an advocate of private cord blood banking.
"Having cord blood stored for your child, is having an insurance policy. It's something that you hope you'll never have to use. But to have it available for you in the event that the need arises is priceless," added Fink.
It might be priceless to some, but expensive to others.
And according to Dr. Lyle Feinstein, the director of the Bone Marrow Transplant Program at Memorial Hospital West, private banking is discouraged by the American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology as well as the American Academy of Pediatrics. He says the chances are slim that your child will ever need privately banked blood.
"Like any insurance policy you need to know what you're paying for. The chance of a child ever needing his own cord blood cells throughout the course of his life is 0.04%. The chance of a sibling needing that child's cord blood is 0.07%."
With public donation, the blood is collected from the placenta, processed and transferred to a facility to be stored. The tissue is typed and entered into the National Bone Marrow Donor Bank for use by critically ill patients around the world.
"The public donation serves a tremendous need for patients. The potential for lives saved here is extraordinary," Feinstein added.
Memorial Hospital West in Pembroke Pines just became the first Broward hospital to offer public cord blood donation giving mothers in South Florida another option. South Miami Hospital is the only one in Miami-Dade that offers public cord donation.
Yale Hockey Star Mandi Schwartz Getting New Lease on Life
8/08/2010 11:00 PM ET By John Hickey
John Hickey
SEATTLE -- Mandi Schwartz has had a good month.
August will turn out to be, quite literally, the month of her life perhaps.
Schwartz, a 22-year-old member of the Yale women's hockey team, was diagnosed in 2008 with acute myeloid leukemia. She needed a stem cell transplant to survive and, for two years, a search to find an adult bone marrow match was unsuccessful.
This week it was announced that the blood of an 18-month old girl is enough of a match that, on Aug. 27, Schwartz, whose brother, Jaden, was the first-round pick of the St. Louis Blues in June's NHL Draft, will undergo a cord blood transplant that will hopefully save her life.
Transplants of umbilical cord blood are used when an adult bone marrow donor can't be found. The match doesn't have to be exact, as is the case in bone marrow. In Schwartz's case, she and her donor's blood match on five of the six critical areas.
"I'm going to have a whole new immune system," Schwartz said Sunday morning prior to throwing out the first pitch before the Seattle Mariners-Kansas City Royals game at Safeco Field. "And I'm even going to be a new blood type. I'm A-negative and I'm going to be O-positive.''
Mostly, the new immune system will attack whatever remaining leukemia cells are left in her body after two years of chemotherapy and other treatments to keep Schwartz alive.
"There are some risks,'' Schwartz's father, Rick, said. "But it's a blessing to have the cord blood match the way it has.''
Two months ago, Mandi Schwartz was bedridden, a nasty case of pneumonia attacking her while the search for a suitable donor went on. Those were some of her grimmest moments, struggling to breathe as her lungs tried to fight off the pneumonia.
She spent three days in intensive care while hooked up to oxygen because her breathing was so forced. For someone who had spent her life as an athlete able to test the limits of her body, it was a dark time.
"It's pretty scary when you can't stand up and you are struggling to breathe,'' she said. "Even when I'd go to sleep, I'd be struggling to breathe. It was a fight to get my lungs back working again.''
"It's impossible to thank all the people who have stepped up to help. They will never know how very thankful I am for everything they have done."
- Mandi Schwartz Schwartz and her family have been in Seattle since last month preparing for the surgery, which will take place at the University of Washington's Hutchinson Medical Center. For the most part, her five-days-a-week medical treatment leading up to the surgery is taking place at the Seattle Cancer Care Alliance.
If all goes well, her new immune system will fight the remaining leukemia cells in her body. And sometime after that she'll be able to return to Yale for her final year, although it's too early to say whether she'll be able to play hockey at the same level as before the leukemia diagnosis.
"I can't imagine a life where I'm not working out, and I'd like to play (for Yale) again,'' she said. "But if not, I'll at least play at rec league hockey.''
Those are thoughts that weren't realistic even two months ago.
The Yale community, the hockey community and countless people Mandi Schwartz has never met have come to her aid. Over 1,600 people were tested to be possible bone marrow donors.
"It's impossible to thank all the people who have stepped up to help,'' Mandi Schwartz said. "They will never know how very thankful I am for everything they have done.''