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Note: NDX [QQQ] probing breaking of Jan/Apr downtrend line
Ok I see it, and now that we have moved laterally and if we were to move laterally more is the new data incorporated to redraw the channel at a less step angle?
I assume they are drawn dynamicly to include the most current data - then at some point do you or does it 'see' that the data points define another channel?
In otherwords, moves outside the channel are not necessarily 'breaks' thereof. But in drawing the new up channel a decision was made that there was a break [and other data points] significant to warrant definition of another channel, thus no more updates to the abandoned channel?!?!
What methodology are you using to generate these channels?
Cannot help but notice the green channel was violated yesterday.
Just got the chart - very nice
notice double touch of trendline previous tops
certainly we have to have a double touch, but,
will it retreat again, back-off and go through, or just blast through?????? who knows?
DJI SPX both just hit recovery [may low] intraday highs!
do not fight the tape - still a holiday week
wait until next week for the rejection/confirmation
news is favorable and getting better - election[bush] oil iraq, etc.
bush out of country for the w/e
SOX resistance at 50d, but 50d is rising!
Is this the breakthrough right now??????
DJI and SPX look good for upward moves
SMH upper BB is flat at about 38.80 and could contain move
Big move today could open it up
SOX is not constrained and is opening
Correction - Thu up trendline was 36.70 not 36.60
still rising .10 per day, Thu low 36.68 close 37.75
Stopped on a dime? or was that a 2 cent piece????
Today is 36.80
CSCO continuing its move - QLGC looks sick
is QLGC about to preannounce another miss of eps?????
CSCO has broken out and vol almost same as INTC !!!!
I bought CSCO calls instead of NSM
May have to buy QLGC puts again!
Severe damage was done Thu. and it will take a powerful up move to erase the losses of yesterday, however, since many of the stocks gapped down, they can obtain DHH's without reversing their Thu. loss - a big positive.
The SMH held its up trend line at 36.60 which is rising at .10 per day [so 36.70 today, which it also closed above @4PM]
MACD's - although many are near giving sell signals, this is not a given. Many rallies and declines have patterns where the lines kiss and do not cross. Time will tell which case we have.
IMO we have seen a low volume shake-out sell-off, heavier in the semi's due to some downgrades. I took the gap down yesterday as a buying opportunity.
[despite Les's Numbers - Larry rolling over]
If you followed the advice you had a nice move and got out last Friday when the 10d % peaked.
Thu I sold all my puts and bought calls on the stocks I judge best to move [MXIM BRCM] or best to recover [KLAC, NVLS, XLNX]. Will be buying calls in NSM for eps move into next week.
Despite the last final dip to the close, I only suffered a minor loss overall in my calls. Why? a couple of positions I bought at the lows held above, and there seemed to be some premium building in the calls due to overall volatility.
Even in the drop-off, limit orders I had in became floor bids and no one dumped into them and the traders certainly did not want to fill me.
shwing! [sounds very good for BRCM]
now how will they [bears] kill this good news???
How's that semi #??? - SMH still above 36.60
prefer above 36.70 as that will be Fri trendline .1 per day
Late drop sent me into the red on my calls.. oh well
Remember I am buying for a bounce only - I look for depressed calls - if NVLS just recovers today's loss and I double my money.
Look at BRCM - it appears to be taking this decline well, providing more of a base for the next move - looks to be first to break to new highs.
We held 36.60 and call premiums rising.
Since I bought prudently earlier today, I never saw a loss overall on this last dip. In fact I bought NVLS 32.5's for 45 cents
I see semis bouncing off 20d SMA's, MACD's have not given sell signals, thus we can have another leg up to upper BB's.
I am 100% calls, but may buy some puts [in different issues or OEX]
Bounce appears underway, sneaking up - no big jumps to invite selling. INTC will be a non-event IMO. Jobs report likely to be a non-event too - rise overestimated, so no rate pressure.
Note that car discounts are going up again [deflation] - giving up to 12K off Tahoe/Yukons/Denalis/Suburbans
Can now buy new for what dealers are trying to sell 2 year old vehicles. This kills trade market and those who need to sell a 1 or 2 year old vehicle because they can't make the payments.
I get channel bottom today 36.60 based on 5/3 and 5/17 lows
would it be enough to get semi132 <10 ???
Please note after each bottom, the next day was a rapid turn.
We are going to bounce! sold QLGC puts to close
all out of puts
Boutght a few BRCM, MXIM and KLAC cals - yes calls!!!!
[just for the bounce]
sold MXIM XLNX NVLS puts to close
INTC down so much and so much focus, I am expecting a bounce either before the close or Fri - so going neutral for a few hours and will re-enter puts later
Out of KLAC puts - looks a little bouncy
Is it only me? Where are the GPS locators?
All sensitive trucks/shipments/trains/planes should have embedded GPS locators constantly tracked by software in order to spot things that move when they should not, stop when they should not, or go off course.
FYI - stealing something with a loaction device [a vehicle or person] and putting them in a metal container prevents radio signals from exiting - thus only way to defeat tracking a GPS locator's signal - thus a big red flag when the locator stops being tracked!!!!!
Most dangerous to be short: BRCM MXIM KLAC
We saw how these were favored in snap back yesterday.
I do have puts on MXIM and KLAC for momentum point moves which should go a couple of more days.
If MACD's do not give a sell on time, top will be suspect, so you have to watch these to see if money is really 'pouring' into semis - or not!
BRCM will be my #1 buy when the buy comes
MXIM #2 as it broke above Apr high [so did INTC]
Not much of a bounce - bought more puts
NLVS only - time to ride them down for a few days
KLAC and QLGC
Both stocks had major breakdowns a month or 2 ago and both came back to their 50d SMA. Always a major resistance point in such situations. Which has the better chance of getting through? KLAC - drop based on whether or not a big booking would fall in Q2 v Q3, which is really not meaningful. QLGC on the otherhand, dissapointed again! And could make another negative preanouncement for this qtr any day now. My QLGC target is 28, and KLAC I watch for buying - someone will know in advance if that big booking is coming in June.
Here it is - but it's back to resistance, not off support.
Now that SOX is back there - can it get any more?
Damage in SMH tells the story - looking to buy more puts!!!
Serious damage - SOX broke through now 50d SMA is resistance. Put prices being marked up can only get in on mkt orders.
Puts now on KLAC MXIM QLGC and NVLS
SOX should attempt bounce right here
50d SMA 475.41 - calculated when price gets there
KLAC says I'm not bouncing - down almost 2 from high already
SMH break - I will be buying more puts on first mkt bounce
50d SMA on SMH is history, $SOX about to break.
Look at XLNX - was up pre mkt now down big!!!!!!!
More convincing that 5/28 was the top
MACD's beginning to converge - sell signal calculated at 4 to 5 days from now - that means semis could rally, but history says, look for the sell signal to confirm top based on LN.
We are in that tough spot - semi news sounds good
but, we should be near a top and may have seen it.
Small gains today pre mkt do not take out Tue losses.
If open/rally fails, you can expect no DHHs and some DLLs, thus I will be buying more puts.
How will XLNX react to its gross margin increase?
ALTR already down on just going to high end of range.
Remember, we have had a good move and some consolidation is needed.
10d SMA's are rising as decline days are droping off, thus stocks above will naturally drop with flat prices.
If 50d SMA's on SMH and SOX are to hold, we must therefore have a sideways consolidation - this is the best scenario for a continued run.
It depends on how semis react in next 2 days
QLGC was hit hard and just got back to a solid resistance point. I look for 28.0 to 28.5 area.
I think at least a top for a couple of days.
How much sideways action will we get if 50d SMA's hold?
Semi's can track downward, but MACD's will not give a sell.
This is what I said before - watch for that false top/bottom
It seems that that late day money came in and saved the SMH which was just shy of breaking down.
Thought that would wake you up - I am all puts now
KLAC MXIM QLGC
INTC update seems to be a non-event and stock retracing
Still need to see if 50d SMA's can hold - Looks like SMH will slice through it very soon - then the jig is up!!!!!
Bought puts on QLGC - SMH head fake???
QLGC had moved to its sharply decling 50d SMA and that should be it for a while.
with SMH and SOX just above their 50d SMA's, this does not leave much for support. 38.15 or so and 475 or so.
Will a sell-off today lead to a weak open and bottom Tue?
If semi's are truly as strong as they seem and money is really pouring in - then 1 or 2 days of consolidation is all we will get.
Call candidates [when appropriate] BRCM MXIM KLAC
buying selective Jun puts - MXIM KLAC
All out - just sold last of my Jun calls - MXIM
SOX acting poorly v mkts although MXIM did make new DHH
Not ready to buy puts - I think that may be too risky
With inflows coming back into tech - especially semis,
look for consolidation and finally a break of the Jan/Apr downtrend line
So I will be looking to buy calls again!!!!
Might go ahead an buy some NSM 20's as eps coming soon
can't get to it - they say you blew your xfer limits
Where is that six sigma? MXIM is up in May
CNBC reports it was the 5th worse in $NDX
closed 4/30 at 46.04
Can DJI be up 20.38 points to make an up month????
need to best 10225.57
SPX 4/30 close was 1107.30 and we are well above @ 1120
I get Jan-Apr downtrend @39.48 today
so we have a little more to run before resistance
Closing high basis
1/12 45.74 [intraday on 1/13 @45.78]
4/5 41.92 [intraday on 4/5 @41.97]
total trading days 61
so 3.82 drop in 61 days
today marks 100 days
so 45.74 - (100 / 61 * 3.82) = 39.48
total drop of 6.262 in 100 days or .06262 per day drop
[if you care to calc the next few days to see when we it]
SMH downtrend = 45.74 - ((Days since 1/12) / 61 * 3.82)
today is day 100
Well, Whittington picks 3 of my hot 5
MXIM BRCM ADI
But this S*O*B cost me $300,000 in 1995 when he kept upping MU while it fell!!!!!!
I was naive, but can read the tea leaves now.
But I made $950K on the upside !!!!!!
The power of options.................
Thanks too. Finally SMH is moving BRCM key
BRCM was first stock to blast up and has been dogging it.
Hopefully just a little consolidation.
MXIM had one big day and dogged it yesterday - another move?
I am taking some profits as premiums will get clipped on Tue.
Buying NVLS calls as stock has reason to keep moving.
Given break of major downtrend line and great fundamentals, SMH should start to define a solid up channel.
INTC bests Apr High - do u have list of 132
[send as vertical list in post or email]
MXIM and INTC - that's 2 of 132