is...hopefully making money
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Lots of churning here at $9.45 with incredible volume. Looking for it to break loose again in the last 30 minutes.
I mean...what an insane run FMCN has had since July. Hopefully we are setting up a run like that. It sure feels like we are.
I haven't felt concerned since management announced the buyback. Even then, I was only concerned because I already have a full position. If I had additional funds to allocate to CCME, I would have welcomed it going lower so I could buy more. Long term.....I am very confident about where CCME is going.
Management stepping up to the plate was clearly the turning point for the short term trading pattern, for sure. Personally, I'm just savoring the flavor of the shorts roasting. There were millions of shares shorted in the low $9s and high $8s. Someone is in the process of loosing their ass cheeks. I won't be losing any sleep over it :)
500k shares with some excellent price movement. This trading is confirmation for me that the shorts are covering.
I feel a little like William Wallace at the battle of Falkirk; hold....Hold....HOLD!!!!!!!!
Breaking out now. $8.85!
True, but one thing is different and that is the company is in control of the situation now, not the shorts. The shorts had the upper hand when the company was providing no indication as to whether or not they would do anything about the short attack. Now that we know they have a plan and have already started executing it, things are in favor of longs IMO. If given the choice, I like the company's $140 million and impressive cash flow as opposed to the short's $29 million and a prayer for a mistake.
I don't know about you guys, but I am licking my chops thinking about getting my hands on the latest institutional ownership numbers. I wouldn't be surprised to see it as high as 30%.
Ask and Ye shall receive :) I'm looking for a particularly strong close on a quick surge of volume. Perhaps above $8.60.
FWIW - I think everyone is paying way too much attention to the short's comments. We don't need to spend anymore time debunking their theories, because they don't even have any. There is no ace up their sleeve, they don't know something that we don't. They are just making a lot of money manipulating a stock that, up until this point, has been easy to manipulate. Their reign over CCME has been dwindling for weeks now, and is going to be completely wiped out in coming weeks IMO. They are not going to be able to overcome the company buying back up to 3.6 million shares, and the divi (which I feel confident is coming) will deliver the final blow to them.
I know that many here became very nervous when Joenatural went negative on CCME and negative on the market in general. This is not a personal attack on him, but anyone who listened to him sold at what is likely to be the bottom of CCME's trading pattern and they missed out on a 500 point run up on the DOW. Just goes to show that people with a negative sentiment towards a stock or the market as a whole are just as fallible as anyone else. It's time to start taking things with a grain of salt and relying more on our collective due diligence, rather than reacting to fear and smear campaigns.
I'm with you Stockplucks. I can only imagine that is because the dividend is material information and if it is in the works he cannot comment on it with one investor without letting everyone else know.
Probably a very good indicator it is on its way.
Ryan - I was thinking the same thing about the company selling the shares in the future. It doesn't worry me in the least, not a shred. By the time they would even consider selling them we will likely have appreciated heavily and most of us will have taken some gains, probably several times over. Also, by then there will be a much more savvy market for CCME shares willing to pay the higher share prices because I believe CCME will be a well known name in the not too distant future.
Stockplucks - that is too funny. I bet if they had a "most refreshed stock quote going into close" CCME would have won today. Seems everyone was watching the close like a cast of hawks.
One heck of a volume surge at the end of day too. Loving it.
LOL - they tried to take it down in the last 5 minutes.
It is quite possible that is a contributing factor, sure. The good news is that the share price is not churning, indicating that there are fewer dumpers at these levels. That will start putting even more pressure on the shorts to cover as they see their profit quickly slipping away. Buying back 30% of the float is a nightmare scenario for the shorts if management is agressive in their buying.
There is definitely going to be some push and pull over the next few trading sessions. Even if the shorts are covering, they are still going to try their manipulative trading patterns to hold the price as low as they can as long as they can while they cover.
I am (and I get the sense that many others are too) much more confident than I was a few weeks ago for the simple fact that management has finally shown that they won't sit back and be pushed around. A company with strong fundamentals, huge margins, extraordinary growth forecast and even greater potential, and $139 million + that management is willing to put to work for its shareholders is a powerful index of profitability. The short schemers tested the waters and found out that there was a monster lurking below the surface and they are going to move along promptly before being swallowed by it IMO.
What happens over the next few days is not of much concern to me, though it is exciting to watch. The next few months, however, will be the ride of a lifetime. I plan on watching my investment triple from the current price levels.
Agreed. Nice grab.
Loving the volume, loving the price action. This sure smells like the beginning of a short covering. What do you all think?
IMO the covering has begun. There have been numerous articles recently acknowledging a potential difference between the SAIC and SEC numbers, and that we don't really care about that. I think that may have been the "ace in the hole" for the shorts, if they had one, and it was incredibly weak. With that exposed, they have nothing IMO.
I think the tide has finally turned and it is the shorts that feel like they are standing in front of a freight train that is bearing down on them at breakneck speed now. The wise ones are getting out of the way. The rest will follow, but only after losing a lot of money.
I would love to see it. Not only does it accomplish the objective of solidifying credibility by demonstrating cash position, it also establishes a sound foundation for attracting big investors.
It would also be incredibly gratifying to see the shorts have to dole out $3.5 million. I think I would send Jacky a handwritten thank you card and a bottle of 30 year single malt scotch if he did that.
I definitely see your logic about the timing, but also consider that if the market does correct, money will flow to value. There are a lot of big money players sitting on the sidelines in mostly cash right now, and they are patiently waiting for the perfect time to act on bargins. If CCME can beat the shorts back in the near term and become even more attractive to institutions, we could see a huge flood of money come pouring in. The price action could actually be accelerated by a pullback in the market as people look for strong value plays that may produce gains even in a down market, assuming it isn’t a 2007-8 Armageddon type of selloff.
On the other hand, if they wait and let the stock get pummeled some more, we see the chart continue to look worse and worse and it will become more difficult to sell big money on the anticipated future performance, even as management makes bold moves. I say go big now (now being as soon as they are done accumulating their shares cheaply). All IMO.
Why make money one way when you can make a lot more of it both ways? Drag the stock down, shorting it the whole way, and then accumulate a lot more shares at the bottom than you would have been able to had you not taken it down. Then start pumping and let it rebound and make another boatload of money.
That's all this is IMO.
FWIW I don't think that is what is going on here. I don't believe these shorts think the company is a fraud, sure they hope and pray it is, that CCME screwed something up, but they don't need that to be the case for their campaign to be successful. With CCME's retail ownership, the current economic uncertainty, the lack of risk tolerance, the anti-China sentiment, we have almost optimal conditions for shorts. The only thing that could make things better for them is another flash crash, a major terrorist attack or swine flu part 2. What a sad life to live, hoping and praying for the demise of others so you can make some money. I'd rather invest in exceptional people doing exceptional things to generate wealth.
Anyway, they are just piling it on with their smear and fear tactics to accelerate the already fragile situation because it works. It lines their pockets. The good news is that CCME can win this fight, and they have already thrown the first counter punch. I have a feeling that a superfly TNT dynamite knockout punch is coming, and it will be CCME standing in the end.
Though conspiracies do exist, I think it is also possible to over complicate this. At the end of the day this is about money.
CCME is a great company with great fundamentals, but like many other reverse mergers, it was introduced to the market as a relatively unknown company with a small float and almost no institutional interest. This is a shorty's dream come true, especially when the fear of a double dip recession is "out there" and the target is an emerging market stock.
Load up some message boards with some hired hands and go to town spreading the fear amongst the retail guys - and get paid. That is all that is going on and until we have a significant percentage of the float locked up in more solid hands they can keep this charade going. The trading indicates that there still is not enough big money on the long side to turn the tide so they will keep at it. The shorting started heavily at $12 so they have plenty of time to cover, or so they think right now.
I still maintain that a divi will break it off on them. They don't want to shell out $.20 a share for their millions of shares and they certainly don't want big money to come pouring into the stock. Both would happen with a divi IMO.
I think the more important of the two is to take steps to correct the current trading pattern and shake off these short locusts. By my assessment anything near these prices is a steal, so they are are getting a huge value for their money anyway. It is splitting hairs to fight over getting them for $7.50 vs $8.50 or even $9.50. However, if part of their strategy is to pick them up as cheaply as possible I would find it difficult to fault them for that.
Every share they take away from the flippers raises the future cost of the remaining shares. Simple laws of supply and demand.
Well, assuming that a lot of this accumulation is them, they might as well pick the shares up as cheaply as possible. The key point is that they have the potential to take 2-3 million shares out of the hands of flippers. Once a majority of them get soaked up then we climb.
I disagree. I think you set a good floor with a buyback, soak up a nice % of the float at these bargin bin prices and then once you have accumulated a few million shares at $8.25-$8.50 range you light the shorts on fire with a dividend announcement, payable in the immediate future.
BTW, that is what I believe they are doing.
Well done Rato. I'll round up some more people to recommend it.
Bradford - I know you aren't. I've noticed you are good about keeping your cool, even when things hit the fan. It is an admirable quality.
Agreed. A very solid foundation of a business that will be a sector leader is being poured right now. Management is literally getting EVERYTHING right early on, and they are in the right place at the right time, assuming that the world economic recovery doesn't falter (even then that just changes the timeline of their emergence).
All of this shorting is just noise now as it is in the process of being neutralized and will soon be a key contributor to an accelerated, sustainable ascent IMO. I believe that many of us will look back at this time 18 months from now and say “wow, I can’t believe I had this stock at $8 and actually had a shred of concern.” I guess time will tell, but I’m feeling good about where things are at and where I believe they are going.
I'm going to pour a glass of scotch.
5 reasons every long can chill out now -
1) Most obvious - Management showed today that you don't get to F%$# with them, that they are legit, that they have the cash, and that they are willing to use it.
2) A dividend is likely on the way, and just the threat of one is enough to deter shorts.
3) We are likely to get some more analyst coverage soon as a result of all of the IR functions the company has been attending and hosting.
4) We know Q3 numbers are going to be stellar, especially with the growing # of high rev airport busses.
5) #'s on institutional holdings come out in under 30 days and I expect a significant increase since the last report. Probably over 20%.
Long and strong.
I got a call from my brother this morning asking me what was going on with CCME because they were all over CNBC. He doesn't even follow Chinese small caps, but he knows that I do. This is some great exposure. Anyone doubting what this and an impending dividend are going to do for this stock is delusional.
They like to squeal about the longs being in love with a stock, but they are about to learn the pain that comes from falling in hate with a stock.
$30 million. That seems like a number we have all discussed quite often here. Though it could be a rare coincidence, I believe it to be rock solid evidence that Jacky listens very closely to our suggestions. What a guy!
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! Vindicated! Time for the shorts to roast.
One thing is clear, if Jacky and the board of director's plan is to ride out the short wave hoping that things get better - we're in for a hellish ride. If they do implement a divi, we are all back in the black faster than you can blink. It's really that simple.
Too funny. Did the haircut look good at least?
Yet another reason why it is imperative for management to make this stock unattractive to these locusts. Bring the pain back to them!
I have little doubt that what we are seeing is beyond coordinated and has entered the realm of criminal. Naked short selling is illegal and we see it going on all the time. This is an organized illicit attack.
What is frustrating is management could, and should, fire back. I hope Jacky (Chan) Lam breaks it off on these crooks.
Is it true that when someone naked shorts a stock that you increase the outstanding share count with phantom shares, effectively diluting everyone's shares? tothe posted a reference to a chart of CCME naked short selling, and the total shares were in the hundreds of thousands that were naked shorted. Could we be dealing with artificial and illegal dilution right now by these shorts?
I can't figure out any other reason that we see such high volume on a regular basis with no traction in share price. For crying out loud, 1 million shares to be traded today? 10% of the float! There is something very sinister going on here IMO.
I hope you are right, and my gut tells me the same thing. At some point you have to trust that they are just not "that stupid" so as to sit back with that much cash and do nothing under these conditions.
A dividend and a buyback are both no-brainers at this point. Spending $30 million to gain $80-100 million in market cap makes all the sense in the world. Shoot, a strong dividend could jump the stock even more than that in a very short period of time.
Until that hapens, watching CCME on a daily basis will continue to be like watching a patient going into cardiac arrest while Jacky sits there with a defibrillator that he won't use.
I just got off the phone with Lena. She said that management is very aware of the growing short position and it is a top concern of theirs. She was very point blank about it, she said "of course they are concerned about it - they own over 60% of the shares."
I asked her - then why the lack of response so far, especially given their strong cash position? I told her that many, myself included, feel that a dividend would be the most effective method for addressing the current short attack. She basically said that they have top advisors, "very smart people" as she called them, that are discussing all options.
As a side note, she did sound very frazzled and frustrated and she was borderline rude throughout our conversation. Perhaps they should consider an IR firm that has a higher standard of professionalism.
She may be frustrated with all of the calls, but what does an IR firm expect to happen when management is sitting on their hands while their stock is being crushed. You're going to have to answer some questions.