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Im still trying to figure out the common stock situation. I have read that the plan doesn't provide direct relief to common stock holders. But I haven't read anything that says that the common stock gets erased if the company emerges from BK. If the plan goes in to effect, and the company emerges why wouldn't our shares then be based on the companies equity?
I think everyone in here right now is collectively holding their breath. I hope we don't get some bogus like "We will adjourn until January 15 while I review the case."
Hopefully we get solid news while the market is open. One good thing, we are seeing alot of volume again. This shows that alot of people are actively watching the stock and if we get solid news, we could see a huge move.
Anyone know what time they go to court? I wonder when we'll hear something.
The Equity Committee Objections:
This is a very interesting and tangled document, but Ill extract a few interesting bits:
2. While the Debtors and other parties to the Plan Support Agreement have worked
together during the past few weeks to create the structure for the reorganization underlying the
Motion, the Equity Committee was not invited to participate in these discussions.
Imagine that. Next:
The Debtors,
the ad hoc bondholders (the “Ad Hoc Bondholders”) and the EPA did keep the Equity
Committee abreast of the status of their plan development and the Equity Committee’s advisors
did receive drafts of the transaction documents, however, to date there have been no meaningful,
substantive discussions with the Equity Committee regarding a potential settlement with and
distribution to the shareholders of this estate. The Equity Committee is hopeful that the parties
will engage in productive, good-faith discussions during the next few weeks and prior to the
filing of any plan. Ultimately, the Equity Committee hopes that the existing plan framework can
be modified to provide for a meaningful distribution to shareholders. However, at this time, the
Equity Committee has largely been left out of the substantive process and must preserve all of its
options, including the option to propose its own plan that will reflect the true value of the
underlying business.
So there are two plans in development. The EC has a plan that will demonstrate a much higher value of tronox while maintaining the integrity of stakeholders. However, it also seems they are open to using the current frame work as long as it can be modified to include stake holders
It will be interesting to see what happens in court tomorrow. But I can guarantee that this isn't over yet.
I firmly believe people involved in today's mass exodus will be kicking themselves in the ass shortly.
I agree about the PR. Just by saying "no relief for common share holders pending discussions with the EC" they create a Monday morning sell off where they buy the hell out of shares at a discount, negotiate a settlement on common share conversion and they are holding most of the stock.
It may or may not be the case, but it sounds about right to me.
I would bet it will be something like "You defrauded these share holders with liabilities that weren't theirs, and your plan is to hand over all recovery to the US government, get new financing and wipe them out? Lets try again."
Reuters has a version of the story that doesn't discuss common stock holders at all:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idAFSGE5BK04R20091221?rpc=44
In the previous statement, it says that in the plans current state there are no provisions but that this is pending meetings with the Equity Shareholders Committee. It makes me wonder if they consider it a foregone conclusion that the plan will require their support but perhaps terms haven't been covered yet.
Im dizzy reading all this. I would have thought the short term impact on the stock would have been great, but these morons think they can leave out common stock holders? WTF? I can't imagine an EC going for this at all...and that is WHY the judge put an EC in place. I don't think the EC or the judge go for it. It will need some kind of provision for converting our common stock to the companies new stock. Or perhaps a preset stock buy back?
The other thing I like about the PRs hitting Reuters and media outlets like this one is that it increases the publics awareness. This is good for volume when we get news of exit financing.
If they announce a cancel of the auction and exit financing over the weekend, I wonder how long until they emerge from the BK. I know the restructuring plan speaks of issuing the stock under a new title of some sort after the BK.
I think that next week could be the 1-2 dollar move that we have all been looking for if we get these announcements. That would make for a Merry Christmas wouldn't it?
I love the Equity Committee. That document was impressive, particularly sections noting that forcing this auction violates the bankruptcy code. Also that allowing this companies assets to be sold in a needless firesale ruins a company that is operationally viable and doing well.
The closing remarks cite that striking this motion sends a message to the DIP that they must release their "strangle hold" and work with parties to resolve the estate in a manner that works for ALL parties.
Newtech, what do you make of the trading today? We had some volume (175k shares of A and 152k shares of B) and yet the trading was really tight. Is it fishy to you that the share volume was similar and the Asks didn't go up?
This looks to me like buying one and shorting the other.
I think this volume is MM garbage.
I think we may be seeing the market just about cease on Tronox until we get through Monday and Tuesday. The perception may be that in an auction, the companies ability to continue to do business is in question.
Not a single share of B has traded this morning.
What a bizarre day of trading!
B shares at .40 this morning. What the heck are we missing here? I can't figure this out.
The only reason I can think of is the stigma that this is a company undergoing a bankruptcy, and thus the shareholders may get wiped out.
I think you hit it on the head with exit financing. When that is secured and Tronox emerges from Chapter 11 all bets are off. Then if Kerr settles out of court, we're really talking.
Gropper hearing their motion at the time of auction sounds about as close to the middle finger as I think it gets.
One thing I am unsure of: If there is an asset sale next week, how does that work? Lets say that Huntsman offers 700 million and Tronox accepts. We pay off debt, the balance becomes equity. Do our shares then get valued against that equity? And in the event of an auction, can they wipe us out for some reason?
I guess Im just mental with the bid slapping. I understand that the Equity Committee represents our interets, but Im just trying to see if there is something on the chess board that Im missing.
A's back in the .50s and B in the mid .40s. I would have never seen that coming.
I can't figure it out either.
Lets look at what is on the horizon regarding opportunities to get the stock moving:
December 17: Hearing regarding force of Tronox Assets. I expect the judge will laugh Huntsman right out of the room. The extension to March to find exit financing tips the judges hand that he plans to allow them that opportunity.
December 21/22: If a good enough bid were to arise, this would be when. If we got 800 million there, the stock should sky rocket. If the sale isn't forced and we wait for exit financing, this could cause movement as well.
Jan 1 - March (11?): between now and the date in March set by the judge for extension, news of exit financing could (should) arise. I would think that with the time Tronox has had to secure financing already, this news would come by the end of January. One would think these negotiations are already nearing a close.
I expected action this morning and got bid slapped instead. Lets hope the volume picks up this afternoon and on in to the week. I will say that the more information like the 2 PRs we got, the more this story will develop in the main stream media.
I'd like to get NewTech's perception as well. Do you think we're going to see some volume and some price increase as a result? Maybe even a feeding frenzy of sorts?
The article that hit Yahoo hit at 4:51ET, an hour after the market closed. This is the first article that I have seen come out on the wire to mass media that alerts the public that there could be a HUGE upside here.
I think tomorrow could be interesting. It will mark the first time trading has commenced with this news out there.
Maybe with all the PR we see some movement over the next 10 days.
Wow, no volume this morning on A or B.
It seems to me that the past two Mondays have yielded high volume (300k shares and up). I wonder if we will see the trend continue this Monday?
It seems like the trend is that Monday we get volume and the price goes up, then the rest of the week it's soft.
Less then 6000 shares in 4 hours. That's amazing after yesterdays news regarding the extension for exit financing. It just goes to show the incredible media blackout that surrounds this stock.
No idea whats up with the B shares.
This seems to be incredibly strong news. Does this impact the December 21/22 auction hearing? I wonder what the impact on the stock will be.
I was just looking at that. I'm really surprised people are buying some A shares this morning when they could buy B shares for a steal. Im guessing the B shares will catch up very shortly.
I agree completely with you. I fantasize that they get busted for trade tampering by the SEC, Jim Cramer goes on a tirade about it on his show and in 24 hours the guys are arrested. Cramers rant has Wallstreet in a frenzy paying 20 bucks a share for A and B shares. Secolton, New Tech, and a few other regulars are toasting our health and millions over cocktails at the Atlantis resort why Nite, Puma and their merry band of MMs are introduced to their cell mates...who strangely enough find them extremely attractive.
Hey I can dream.
Nite and Puma: You are welcome to my shares for the low low price of 10.00 each ass monkeys.
Bid Slapping at its finest: An ask of .75 and a bid of .48 at the close. What they're doing to the B shares is criminal.
Unfortunately, it wouldn't matter what these MM's were up to if we had some volume on the shares. The past several mornings I have watched the B shares get wacked 5 cents based on 130 shares that traded total on the morning.
When the volume hits, they're out in the cold. I am still surprised that people aren't buying up all the B shares at .17 cents under the A shares.
Hopefully we dont have to deal with the volatility much longer.
I noticed that the bond closed down at 69.00
I can't help but think that the breakout is coming. I think we're going to see alot of action between now and December 21/22. I definitely think we could see 1.00 on A and B in that time, and I think we could see alot of action in the last week of the year depending on what happens at the Auction hearing.
Lets hope for some consistent volume starting tomorrow. That is what its going to take to shake the bid slapping. Total B shares traded today was like 3k.
I was worried this morning. Hopefully we see it rebound in the afternoon.
Lets hope we get some volume on A and B shares, or we're going to have another fun filled day of bid slapping.
Price check on isle BOOM!