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Thanks. These charts are from my intermediate term models, thus the slower periods. Unfortunately I don't have the time to devote to more active trading
The AD Line is overbought...
VXN is riper...
VIX is ripe...
Michael Moore is a fraud? I can hardly believe it.
http://www.hardylaw.net/Truth_About_Bowling.html
I haven't heard this kind of hysteria since RR ran for president.
I'm with ya George. My intermediate term models are still bullish but VIX and VXN continue to fall rapidly. When the 14,3,3 full stoch turns over confirming the 4 week momentum divergence, I feel this market is gonna fall hard.
"But where is cost/benefit better?..."
You tell me: "The Big Dig is the largest and most expensive urban highway construction project in U.S. history. The project, which been under construction since 1986 and is to be complete in 2005, is estimated to cost $14.6 billion."
"$80 or 90bln for "Shock & Awe"
The last I heard (last week) of cost to date for "shock and awe" was 20 billion.
"$80 or 90bln for port security??"
Are you serious. Guess you think "the big dig" was a deal. What if we started with shutting down the southern border. Would you be for that?
What was the REAL reason for "Shock & Awe" ie the Iraqi "liberation"?
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/21/international/worldspecial/21CHEM.html
Answer me this. How much did 9/11 cost the victim's families? The U.S. economy?
Whaddya talking about? The entire NE is a reconstruct project! Question for Sara: Which will cost more, Ted's Boston tunnel project or the reconstruct of Iraq?
I know which one will be completed first: Iraq
> People who live with such incentives develop a talent for meeting them.
Yes, but this person wasn't captured by the U.S., he took the initiative. Did this person develop his own batch of WMD to please the U.S.? Did he also create false documents in order to please the U.S.? Doubtful.
>In The main issue is, will something good long term will come of this invasion, or will it further stoke the fires of bitterness, terrorism and general unrest in Iraq specifically and the mideast (indeed, the world) generally.
I suppose the "fires of bitterness...and general unrest" would have been better kept in check by a ruthless dictator.
>it would have been better to deal with the devil we knew, to slowly further strangle and constrict his power with a combination of bombing, no-fly zones, diplomacy, financial constraints, inspections and world pressure.
This is a huge fallacy the anti-war crowd would like others to believe.
1. "continuation of bombing, no-fly zones": Bombing what? Coalition aircraft only bombed AA sites that either locked onto or launched weapons against our aircraft. In no way did the no fly zones constrict Saddam's development of WMD, restrain his rule, or inhibit his ability to fund, harbor, or aid terrorists.
2. "diplomacy, financial constraints": Like the oil for food program? The program that lined the pockets of the regime? The program where aid didn't go to the people? The program Saddam cheated on by piping oil through Syria? The program the French, Germans, etc. fought to expand - more oil for more aid???
3. "inspections": Inspections? Do you really believe Saddam would have allowed inspections had there not been a credible threat of force? How many U.S. troops should we have permanently stationed in Kuwait in order to keep inspections going? Why wouldn't the "fires of bitterness" from Arab street been stoked by this long term presence?? Is there any evidence inspections (without full iraqi cooperation) would have worked?
4. "world pressure" - What world pressure? Talk is cheap, the UN proved this in resolution 1441. There is no "pressure" unless there are real consequences.
I don't think so - he doesn't fit the description at all.
Smoking Gun:
NY TIMES
Illicit Arms Kept Till Eve of War, an Iraqi Scientist Is Said to Assert
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/21/international/worldspecial/21CHEM.html?pagewanted=1&ei=5006&am...
>As you probably can guess, my opinion is it's a mess. Not necessarily a completely irretrievable mess (though parts of it are irretrievable--the looting has consumed and destroyed far more than the "vase" that Rumsfeld so humorously referred to in his press conference last week, and not just museum pieces, but legal records and bank accounts), but a mess nonetheless.
While people in this country may celebrate for the moment, anyone who has a mind and can see farther than the edge of their nose is not celebrating. It's a mess.
=========================================
Has everyone forgotten Germany in 1945?
Japan in 1946?
The Old South in 1865?
I really take offense to statements like "the war was the easy part". Do you really think the people who supported this action are so ignorant and naive to believe rebuilding will be easy? That there will be no long term scars?
>Will the end justify the means?
Answer: Yes
Articles like this prove two points: 1. The media hates Bush with a passion and 2. they have a soda-straw perspective of world events. Here are a few headlines I'll expect in the future:
Kemotherapy culprit in sickness of cancer patients
Pain and exhaustion linked to exercising
Firefighters broke windows and destroyed property sources say
Mental fatique, sleeplessness, and eye-strain linked to studying
Is Mr. Fisk writing for Associated Press under the alias Niko Price?
Intermediate term top developing?
Although the market has been relatively flat over the past month, breadth has continued to slowly widen. Unfortunately, many of the breadth indicators I follow are getting close to overbought territory. The Nasdaq Composite's Summation Index, the New High/Low Ratio, and the Record High Percent Index are all beginning to get a bit frothy. Also note the NYSE A/D Line has moved into overbought territory when compared to it's 30 day smoothing.
This isn't to say the market can't continue to move higher, it probably will. But there are other storm clouds on the horizon: VIX and VXN are both getting into the churn zone, not a good sign. I'm also concerned by the momentum divergences that are developing on both the NYSE and NASDAQ Composites. If the indexes continue to move to new highs over the next few weeks without confirming momentum, things will might get ugly.
On the monetary front, the six month ROC of US short term government bonds went negative in mid-March. If it stays negative, and the 50 day smoothing falls below the 200 day MA, watch out. Fortunately, the fall of the US Dollar has slowed as of recently.
I never try to predict the market, just try to measure current risk and act accordingly. My best guess is that the market will continue to move higher over the next two or three weeks… that's just a guess folks. I'll follow my models when it comes to trading real money.
Nasdaq Intermediate Index:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID368318
Don't hold your breath.
"School Teachers along with some others should be paid much much more..."
I agree 100% BUT, the bad teachers need to get the boot. The teacher unions are protecting the slackers to the detriment of our kids.
"Actually it already is decided in some cases. Parent(s0 lose their Children all the time.."
Sure, but that's after the fact. How can you tell if someone will be a good or bad parent before they have kids?
1) small classrooms
Small classroom are great, but not a panacea. Given a choice between a classroom of 30 with no disruptive childern or a classroom of 20 with 2 disruptive childern, I'd take the classroom of 30 in a second.
2) small school that was like a community
Schools, big or small, can easily develop a sense of community if the parents are involved and the teachers live in the community. I've witnessed it in my kid's schools. It doesn't take a fancy, high-priced private school to have a sense of community.
3) lots of extra curricular activities for the kids
Nice if it's available, not a prerequisite for a good education. Would rather see parents take an interest in their kid's grades and classroom behavior.
4) before and after school care.
Most public schools in my area offer it. Don't know if I'm in the minority or not nationwide.
"I firmly believe that some people should not be allowed to have kids."
I see where you're coming from, but your idea is impractical if not immoral. Who would decide and by what standards?
I know people who (if I was the king of the world shouldn't be allowed to own homes, guns, cars - drink alcohol, be near childern, vote, etc.
Good luck figuring that one out. I know many people who are reasonably intelligent, earn good incomes, and are nice people, etc. - but terrible parents. Their kids are spoiled, disrespectful, lazy, etc.
I agree. The problem is that there are millions of single parent households. How do you incent these parents to take more interest in their childern's academics?
I'm sure you're right, there probably is less emphasis on the 3Rs. I still think the biggest problem in lower income schools in parental apathy.
Several years ago I worked for a company that did some pro-bono work for the city's public school system. Our company specialized in employee motivation and sales incentive programs. Want to know the #1 objective the school district wanted us to achieve? Higher attendance. Absenteeism was out of control, much higher than the suburban school districts. Poor attendance is just one example of parental apathy.
How much is "a whole lot more"? Do the good teachers think it's really worth it considering they end up doing more babysitting than teaching?
> How come poor, urban districts such as Newark, Asbury and Jersey City, who receive an enormous amount of federal funds do not achieve certain minimal, basic standards when "pretty, white" middle to upper middle class districts achieve proficient or advanced proficient standards with about half as much money per student??...
I don't have any stats to support my opinions, but I'm sure I'm not too far off the mark:
1. Lower income parents don't value education as much and middle/upper income parents. That value perception translates into a lack of engagement - absenteeism is tolerated, parents don't attend school activities regularly (including parent-teacher conferences), they're not engaged in their child's academic progress, etc.
2. Schools/teachers are side-tracked with disiplinary matters, administrative matters, and mainstreaming of students who are significantly behind their peers academicly. Would be willing to guess there are more diciplinary issues and mainstreaming in lower income districts - even slightly higher levels are a huge drain on education quality for the rest of the students
3. Last but not least, the best teachers don't need the hassle of classroom violence and disengaged parents if they can get jobs in the middle and higher income districts.
"You're the SB that said if you did not like your president you would sell out YOUR COUNTRY to an invader."
I said that? No, I did not. Please read my post with more care before you shoot off your mouth.
hiker, I didn't mean to sound too critical of your interpretation, because there are many valid ways to interpret every indicator. I prefer to use both bollinger bands and PPO of VIX very reason you mentioned: No single indicator is perfect nor is any interpretation perfect. Ned Davis Research, who I admire greatly, uses a 8 day MA/64 day MA for VIX.
After spending a good deal of time looking at VIX, I personally wouldn't put much emphasis on triple confirmation of Stochastics. That's just an observation, take it for what it's worth.
My personal preference is to use the 10,75,1 PPO (+14 and -14 as critical levels) as confirmation to Bollinger Bands (80, 1.5) using the 10 day EMA of VIX. I encourage you to chart this back as far as you have data and see if you agree.
My NASDAQ Intermediate Index:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID368318
Personally, I don't believe there's anything magical about the Stochastics bottoming. Take the charts back 6 or 7 years and you'll see what I mean.
More men? Why?
1. Should have announced the border was closed
2. Run C-130 gunships and Cobra's up and down the border to enforce #1.
This didn't require the 4th ID.
The problem is that too many rats have already gotten away. I can't understand why the U.S. didn't have a larger rat hunting force in the west when this war started. Would have thought Tommy Franks would have learned a lesson from Tora Bora.
"We're seeing them [Syrian fighters in Iraq] in the greatest density,"
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Excerpt:
Officials said the Pentagon has also been alarmed by Syrian recruitment of Arab volunteers to fight for the Saddam regime. Officials said many, if not most, of the estimated 5,000 volunteers were Syrian nationals or residents. Many of these volunteers continue to kill U.S. soldiers in Baghdad despite the collapse of the Saddam regime and his military.
"We're seeing them [Syrian fighters in Iraq] in the greatest density," Brig. Gen. Vincent Brooks, deputy director for operations at U.S. Central Command, said. "We also know that there were attempts to enter from Syria and some recruiting occurred in Syria. While we suspect that may well have been Iraqi intelligence service doing that work, it still came from that direction. That's why we keep referring to Syria. It's just the role that Syria has been involved in in this case."
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/breaking_2.html
Abu Abbas captured in Iraq
Accused Achille Lauro hijacker caught by U.S. troops
BREAKING NEWS
NBC NEWS AND NEWS SERVICES
April 15 -- Abu Abbas, wanted for the 1985 hijacking of the cruise ship Achille Lauro, was captured by U.S. forces in Iraq.
http://www.msnbc.com/news/900783.asp?0cm=c10
There is definitely a big internal struggle within the Pakistani government regarding the support of terrorist groups. Musharraf seems to have the won the upper hand for the moment, but the battle isn't over. If the pro-terrorist elements of the Pakistani government win this internal struggle, the U.S. will certainly put more emphasis on the stick instead of the carrot. Unlike Syria, Pakistan is making moves away from support of terrorism. We should reward this behavior.
You left out this part:
==============================
What has Egypt done to combat these groups?
Egypt has waged a bitter campaign of state violence, mass arrests, and financial crackdowns against Jamaat al-Islamiyya, Egyptian Islamic Jihad, and other Islamist groups during much of the 1990s. Experts say the government has largely succeeded in stopping them from carrying out terrorist attacks inside Egypt. But human rights groups say that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's regime has often used torture as part of its crackdown and sometimes has taken family members of Islamist leaders hostage.
==============================
Unlike Iraq and Syria, Egypt doesn't support terrorists.
You mean the bearish case, right?
I use the 10,75,1 PPO as confirmation to Bollinger Bands (80, 1.5) using the 10 day EMA for both VIX and VXN. The 10 day EMA of VXN is currently below the lower band but the PPO isn't yet below 12 which I consider to be a critical confirmation level.
VIX isn't below the lower band and the PPO isn't yet below 14 (which I consider to be a critical level for VIX). Risk is rising, but a reveral isn't imminent in my opinion.
My NASDAQ Intermediate Index:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID368318
"his tone"?
Oh boy. I guess the raise of his browe or twitch of his shoulder were a bit too intimidating too? Do you think Syria really gives a S#$T about his tone? Do you think Syria would behave differently if Rummy said "pretty pretty pleeeaaaze, don't let terrorists set up training camps in your country poopsy dearest"?
"...and the start of accussations that Syria was supporting terrorists and having WMD and chemical weapons."
The "start of accusations"? The START? Where have you been for the past 20 years?
Where/when did Rumsfeld threaten force?
Read the transcript/excerpt from yesterday's Meet the Press. Again, where/when did he threaten force?
------------------------------
NBC Meet the Press:
MR. RUSSERT: Now, you have warned the Syrians several times, one, about shipping night goggles to the Iraqi forces. Did we find any night goggles in Iraq?
SEC'Y RUMSFELD: Oh, yes, we found night goggles in Iraq.
MR. RUSSERT: And you warned the Syrians about harboring members of Saddam's regime. Can you confirm that members of Saddam's regime fled to Syria?
SEC'Y RUMSFELD: Oh, there's no question but that they did. Absolutely.
MR. RUSSERT: Including...
SEC'Y RUMSFELD: Some left and went to Syria and stayed, and some left Iraq, gone to Syria and transited to other countries.
MR. RUSSERT: Dr. Germ and Mrs. Anthrax were reported to have fled to Syria. Do you have any information on that?
SEC'Y RUMSFELD: Nothing that I'm willing to discuss about individuals.
MR. RUSSERT: Also suggestions that Syria is harboring terrorists, Hamas, Hezbollah, others. Is that your view?
SEC'Y RUMSFELD: Oh, Syria has been on the terrorist list for years. They have worked with Iran and been a transit route for the Hezbollah down to Damascus, down to Beirut, which they still occupy-- Lebanon, Syria does--and then down towards Israel. That's been the route through the Bekaa Valley and--no, they've been very active sponsors of terrorism.
MR. RUSSERT: What happens if Syria doesn't change their behavior?
SEC'Y RUMSFELD: Oh, that's above my pay grade. Those are the kinds of things that countries and presidents decide. That's broad national policy. I'm a participant, but I'm certainly not a decider.
MR. RUSSERT: But could they be risking the future of their government?
SEC'Y RUMSFELD: Well, I guess to a certain extent you're known by your friends. And being on the terrorist list is not some place I'd want to be if I were a country or a leader of a country. I don't quite understand a country that foregoes the economic opportunity that comes from interaction with the world community and the opportunities for their people by creating an environment that's hospitable to enterprise and to economic intercourse. Why they want to live like that. Why they want to think that the only way to sustain their dictatorships is to repress people and to deny them the fruits of economic
interaction with the world. I think it's a shame. I don't know what motivates people except preservation of a regime. I mean, you look at dictatorships and basically, they get up in the morning and the single most important thing is not looking out for their
people, it's how do we preserve the regime. How do we continue our ability to control everything and repress everyone and control the press and deny freedom of religion and enlarge our prisons and force people, in the case of other countries, to live on subsistence food. I don't get it.
MR. RUSSERT: Is there a lesson for Syria as to what happened in Iraq?
SEC'Y RUMSFELD: Well, I think that we've got a lot of work left to do in Iraq. When you say "happened," it's still happening. We still have fighting to do. Our troops are still being killed and wounded and God bless them. They're doing such a wonderful job. We then have to make this transition through this period of some disorder to a period of order, and the opportunity for the Iraqi people to fashion their future. And it's not going to be the United States that's going to be fashioning their future. They're going to fashion their future. And they have an opportunity here to be liberated, be free and fashion an Iraqi solution to how they want to live their lives. And that's a wonderful thing.
"We believe that in light of this new environment they should review their actions and their behavior, not only with respect to who gets haven in Syria and weapons of mass destruction but especially the support of terrorist activity," he said.
I still don't get your point. Do you consider this statement by Powell to be antagonistic?
You assume there would be no costs if we didn't go into Afghanistan and Iraq. What did 9/11 cost our economy?