Financial crisis my ass

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EBKX&t=5d

DAX has retraced 1/3 of MAR low. If that enough of a correction to instill confidence elsewhere.

Repricing of risk on a trillions of dollar of debt worldwide makes me think some selling of equities will continue to protect against rainy day event.

Investment bankers holding too much risk right now as middlemen between borrowers with some credit quality isues and bond buyers looking for higher returns.

Price of gas is tumblin in NJ

It is down to $2.69 just about everywhere and lowest $2.66.

McClellen charts not showing much strength lately and are no where near oversold condition.

DAX looking like it is breaking support.

Is now the time for market correction.

What is your thoughts.

AT&T wireless stores in NJ malls have less foot traffic then competitors.

RIMM and ISRG havn't given up anything recently.

Liquidity driver bull market still in place until they say otherwise.

Still too many companies under the spectre of buyout by priavte equity for party to end now. Bubble in 90's was doomed by excessive valuaiton.

Current market multiples have already factored in higher stock valuations possibe by private equity buyouts. The preferrential tax difference of 15% tax rate for private equity entities vs 30% range corporate tax rates aren driving this market in many sectors.

My only fear is hyper inflation, which would be decimate multiples.

Feels like previous ST bottoms at 1485 and 1505.

Shorts would be chased in droves again if 1550 was reached early next week.

iphone
I stopped by an ATT store in NJ yesterday and it was quite empty compared to Verizon store nearby.

I saw the iphone and was impressed with it's processor speed vs my Sprint PPC6700. It brought up a Goggle map in a snap but Business users will not like the email capabilities (push of email data).

Disallusion with current Iraq policy is not a partisan sport anymore. For example, I took the tour of of the Capital building and even the tour guide was dissing the Prez.

She was explaining the acustoics in the Old Senate Chambers and old John Quincy Adams. She commented that Adams was first president who had a hard time finding a job after being President and so he returned back to the Senate for several terms and was the primary reason that Congress approved pensions for ex Presidents. She commented "no matter how good a President they were or no matter how bad they where they still got a pension".

My only fear is economy's outlook is becoming almost as pessimistic as the timeframe when Nixon, who still could have better approval numbers then Bush, skidaddled out of town. The stock market was basket case for several years under Ford and Carter.

I was going to comment on corn, ethanol and probably effect on food prices after an extended trip through PA, MD and VA.
Corn plantings are up 19% to 95 M acres. This comes at an expense of other crops like soybeans.

The extra acreage seems to be just sprouting up everywhere. All I saw along my journey was corn fields some planted fairly recently since they weren't as high as they should have been for early July.

It seems that eastern section of Gettysburg National Part where the calvary's under Custer and Stonewall Jackson fought were being leased out to a local farmer who was growing corn. I talked to the farmer who was working on one of his tractors at the end of the day after visiting the battlefields while on vacation. He seems pretty happy about his crops growth and the current prices for corn.

OT South didn't stand a chance looking down from Little Big Top but I was amazed at number of Gettysburg baseball hats with stars and bars on the back of them that I saw like if July 2nd was some sort of day of infamy for the South to be remebered.

I checked at usda.gov NASS web site for more specific details on the ag economy.
I found that the productivity increase in bushels per acre of corn has been averaging about 1.7% for several decades. This is mainly due to seed selection.

The majority of all corn is grown in eastern midwest states like IL, IA and MN which have predictable and ample rainfall so you will not have to worry much about crop failures unless some new pest comes along that the genetically engineered seed corn can't cope with.

Also, they documented the reduction in other grains like soybeans plantings as corn increases so it not like overall farm acreage is going up dramatically.

Another readily observed fact is the major reduction in corn stockpiles on-site on the farm and off-site storage as the price has gone up to $3.8 per bushel. The curent corn production of 95 M acres seems to be ample to meet both the 10% ethanol in fuel requirement needs as well as animal nutrition needs.


I don't think the small rise in farm productivity and better price for corn vs other grains not being planted without more acreage under cultivation will make a big difference of agriculture on our GDP or our balance of trade position.

Only observable effect I see is the competition for corn between ethanol production and for food production.

This link talks about having to add starch or forage to dairy cows diet if one depends on corn silage (distillers grain) vs corn grain.
http://www.minnesotafarmguide.com/articles/2007/07/02/ag_news/regional_news/local10.txt

Corn grain is 70% starch 8 n% protein vs 30% protein and 9% start after fermentation. ALso, they said cows don't like sharp changes in their diets so the adage about contented cows must be true.


I guess falling home building and home prices will stiff be biggest effect on gdp and consumer confidence unless one can convince millions of people to plant a lot of corn in their backyards <g>.

RE employment
I am getting a few more unsolicited calls from people looking for work. We are talking about 2-3 a week vs 0-1 per week going back last 2-3 years.

Still not anywhere like 2000-2002 whee it was 1-2 per day.

Is there any informal data you have observed.

I thought you would be up in arms about libby pardon

I am thinking the the rest of world is slowly recognizing that US dollar based assets in addition to CDO's not worth as much one had thought they were a month ago.

In addition, it can't make foreigners too comfortable taking on more amounts of our various debt issues

IMO debt issues of all flavors especially junk rated should decline in price as there is upward pressure on rates to reflect the true level of risk out there.

I think some forms of SCO Unix can't handle dates in the future but I am not a software guy.

Which is last direction in the semsic wave deflection pattern occured with release of FED meeting notes. Up or Down

Retailers PBY & BBBY

I know you don't like Pep boys. PBY I brought my car there this spring for tire rotation (just about the only thing I would trust them with).

It seems there is an car insurance fraud ring that targets retailers like Pep boys. The scheme involves intentionally running a junk car with many pre existing dents but with full collision coverage into a customers car driven by a store employee while it is backing up making the store employee look as the at fault driver. The police report after the fact places blame on the $8.00 per hour store employee and the insurance company pays for all unrelated damage on the insured car and retailer like Pep Boys paying off on car damaged by their store employee. It happened to me and it is quite slick. It is hard to get a handle on it since all parties are not on same page and one has to be ready to blow the whistle on car insurance fraud claim quickly.

I got payment for my damages from Pep Boys $1,100 but I may get charged with an fault accident out of it if my insurance company gets a claim from the other cars insurance company for their payout of $4,000 for a lot of unrelated body work not caused in the accident.

RE BBBY

I some dealing with their IT department and I not too enthused with their ability to deal with their problems. It seems they have a Harmon discount beauty aids division with about 40 stores. The only problem is their very old DOS based POS solution will not take credit cards with expiration dates of 2013 or later. They haven't found a way to deal with the OS problems with handling dates beyond 2013. It looks like a very cheap retailer would is way behind the times on technology. I can't imagine that the flagship BBY stores are run this badly but they can't be run much better.

I would think FCX would be more Copper then Gold.

Entire move off LOD looks impressive if we can hold on to it.

RE FCX

Gold and Copper prices not mpving that much to explain reversal today.

It is starting to feel more like where people don't want to hold positions overnight.

What are the market leaders of any retrace upwards with no earnings news and or reassurance about quality of debt debate.

Looking at analysts you think GOOG was greatest stock to own where as BX is starting to gotten it's butt kicked below IPO price.

Long rates may skyrocket due to need to build in risk premium on less then prime credit.
Also, bankers will look to new loans at higher rates, variable rate resets etc, to recoup all the bad debts to be repudiated in the sub prime and corporate junk bond world going forward.

I base my doom and gloom on yesterday's inability of MER to sell even a small aliquot of sub prime CDO's. The rest of multibillion market in sub prime would have had to quickly "mark to market" based on MER prices yesterday. They just pulled the plug on the sale and everyone is holding their crappy paper at artifically marked up market price rather then having whole house of cards get repriced now and have risk premium built in.

30 year bond would have to go up at least a full point in order to have any effect on stocks.

We had minor reversal from 1504 this morning. We are most likely continuing higher with the rise in UI claims being good for dampening fears of interest rate hikes.


Any reversal in markets today means more sub prime bonds problems to unwind.

PS gagdet makers still doing OK
GRMN AAPL RIMM SNDK

AMEX comp flatlines at about 3 PM

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EXAX&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

My broker said that AMEX market closed at 3 PM for the day. No reason given.

It is hard to find amy market across the world that couldn't retrace a little.

http://www.dawn.com/2007/06/07/top8.htm

The most recent Bernanke comments strongly hint at higher rates to compensate for risk of not only the sub prime homeowner but junk rated corporate paper.

Economic growth in U.S. going to be hard pressed to keep up it's 1-2% anemic growth rate.

Shangai having a poor open

http://cn.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=1d

just wait 10 seconds refresh screen and it off another 2 pts

Reminds me of Naz in 2000

Chinese government must have their equivalent of PPT with all those US dollars on hand.

Shanghai live feed

It seems that it was under pressure at open

http://cn.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=1d


Jusr wait 10 seconds and press refresh button and it loses another 2 pts.

Shanghai opened over 20 minutes ago

http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/city.html?n=237

any one got real time feeds; yahoo got to be at least 22 minutes behind.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

here is yahoo china feed down 1%

http://cn.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=000001.ss

I been going over this question about equity investments in China for a while. I was always asking how people in US could invest in Chinese joint ventures that large multinational companies have been doing for a while moving most of their environmentally unfriendly basic manufacturing projects to China where they face no costly emission controls. Those stocks I was looking at on Shanghai market were most basic manufacturing companies (paper, steel, copper).

Now that you bring up risks to Chinese investors on their overexposure to their own market, can the Chinese directly invest in stocks like Mcdonalds, Walmart, Cisco etc who seek to make large percentages of their future sales there.

Fujian Qingshan Paper Industry off 5% tonight

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=600103.SS

Stock certificate not worth the paper it's printed on <g>

Call me clairvoyant about Shanghai cracking

PS to think I am actually on right side for a down move.

Last one was lumber company.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=600212.SS

http://www.corporateinformation.com/snapshot.asp?SentBy=Home&cusip=C156OW200

If China economic growth slows at all, market tumbles IMO.

If we put tarriffs on those basic type of goods, Chinese will not take it lightly

I am fixated on Shanghai market again

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=000001.SS&alpha=6

I quickly scanned the 850 companies for those with top 10 dollar volume activity and the general rule follows Nazdaq dollar stock trading in the late 90's. Cheap issues tended to dominate the dollar volume list and those lower cost stocks are up 50-100% since late FEB decline.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=600010.SS
steel company
http://english.nmgnews.com.cn/eng/article/20050109/401_1.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=600068.SS
hydroelectric company
http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2007/04/09/2469579.htm

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=600103.SS
paper company and largest listed stock in Shanghai market
http://www.npes.com.cn/english/info/866BCDC0-52BE-4ED3-AA20-9F6D776C16CE.asp

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=600177.SS
largest clothing company
http://www.alacrastore.com/companysnapshot/2509893

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=600212.SS

Among those highest dollar volume movers was a copper, steel and paper company. It seems that the Chinese stock gamblers stick to companies they can readily understand. I don't think most of them are Warren Buffet types.

The smaller number of higher priced stocks in the high dollar volune list don't follow the overall bubble market moves.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=600415.SS


http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=600519.SS
booze company
http://www.moutaichina.com/en/products/normal.html

Do you think that any of these companies are doing as well as their stock prices.

In South Jersey Pine Barrens, you have to go at least 70 MPH to ourrun the skeeters in a convertible.


I once stopped for a traffic light about halfway between Atlantic City and Trenton an got bitten many times. I ran next two red lights.

OTOT this is getting insane in Iraq

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=c6c_1176841053

Spend some time onthis web site and you will realize that war doesn't come without sacrifie in lives and treasue.

Futures looked bummed out. Is it just Intel or are there other factors going on.


Market been speeding ahead higher like Corizine's Tahoe

http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/CORZINE_CRASH?SITE=NJASB&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DE...

N.J. gov.'s SUV went 91 mph before crash.

AMGN moving up smartly from recent low. I think we are seeing early flight to quality today if earnings season & consumer sentiment start to fail us demonstratively.

DOW transports were down while large caps like MRK & GE were up.

PS He had his accident on one of the roads he comtimplates selling. Now he could come back and pronounce that buyer would make significant road saftey improvements that state just can't afford right now.

AMGN and DNA just treading water it is lesser names advancing like GILD and MEDI

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=%5EBTK

OTOT

More IMUS fallout
Go. Corzine was seriously injured in car accident racing back to governors mansion to meeting with IMUS and Rutgers basketball team.

He was traveling back to Governor's mansion in Princeton from Atlantic City.
State troopers typically put the flashing lights on the Gov's Tahoe and go way beyond the speed limit from what have seen. They got lots of experience driving former Gov. McGreevey to trysts with his gay lover.

Last but not least. My wife's been listening to way to much music on the web and has been raving about Brandi Carlise for a few months now.

She just had a full length music video at the end of Grey's Anatomy tonight. Columbia Records is going to tout her as next Springsteen.

I guess market didn't like IMUS getting pulled from MSNBC.

I am Rutgers grad and the women's team didn't deserve those insults just because they play tough defensive ball.

RE BZH

A broker I use moved from NJ to Charlotte NC (BZH base) to be near daughter in college there and to get away from high cost of living in Northeast. He told me about BZH problems during the day yesterday and we put short bet on it. He sometimes comes up with good stock recommendation to play amidst all the LTBH pablum he has to dole out the the majority of his clients.

Some stats to imply were going to party like it's 1999 and then a little more

NYSE Margin debt blows by 2000 bubble levels

http://www.nysedata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=table&key=2970&categor....

Household Financial Obligations as a percent of Disposable Personal Income

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FODSP?&cid=97

Real Estate Loans at All Commercial Banks
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/REALLN?&cid=100

and the FED folded it's cards Tuesday virtually abandoning the fight against inflation via diminished prospect of higher rates and slowing money growth when the broker dealers put down what maybe $100-200 B of sub prime loans in default on the table.

Currency in circulation is ballooning

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WCURCIR

What is to stop S&P from 1550 by year end.

This is distrubing and a still picture of this was on AP wire but was pulled earlier.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=e3e_1174232658

http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/files/photos/B/BAG10303180919.html?SITE=NJASB&SECTION=HOME&...