Whatever, Qurious. Is the word advertising more palatable for you?

That may be, Qurious, but I wouldn't hold your breath. Allan is the same guy who promised a magic work-around for iPod compatibility which turned out be a lie. And if you think the Verizons and AT&Ts of the world are going to make such bandwidth cheap and readily available while missing out on the revenue then the one missing the concept is you. And dealing with commercials via Songbird doesn't have to be so miserable- computers can multitask after all. But to be, essentially forced to deal with ads on a phone/player? Ummm, not so sure that's gonna fly. Sort of one of the reasons more folks listen to content of their choosing on these devices rather then FM radio.

Concepts are great, Qurious, but this company's difficulty executing the basics makes it quite a leap for me to let my imagination run wild.

rt

Wow- that is interesting. If Guvera actually obtains licensure from the labels and can launch, they would definitely provide a very attractive service. Launch/funding mishaps aside, my concern about Qtrax has always been based on the DRM nature of the material as well as the content being specific to the downloading computer. I just don't think savvy computer users are going to play that game. But if Guvera can actually provide DRM free mp3s, hell, I'd use that service. Keep us posted on that one, Mix.

Lucky, you're right in that I didn't get you were speaking specific to China.

But with respect to Chinese iPhone sales, don't you think it is a tad disingenuous for you to talk about iPhones not even making a "small dent, not even a legit competitor" considering it was FREAKING INTRODUCED ON OCTOBER 30, 2009?!?!?!? And, once again, the current version even lacks WiFi.

And again, I was discussing more traditional media players, not phones. I agree convergence is the future, for whatever it's worth...

Let's say I agree with you that apples penetration into Asia has little relevance with respect to Qtraxs' rollout, because, between you and me, we BOTH know the launch is never going to happen anyway...

Actually Lucky, I was writing about the ipod, which you may have heard of? In the first quarter of 2009 the 200 millionth iPod was sold. Perhaps you can point to a competing unit that has more sales? I eagerly await your specifics and will stand corrected if you can deliver credible evidence. You, too, Germboy. As for the iPhone, prior to the stupendously successful 3GS rollout, 21.17 million iPhones have been sold since the first model was released June 29, 2007.

So figure we're probably looking at 300 million iPods and iPhones produced to date, and building in obsolescence/breakage/dog eats ipod, figure 200+ million still going strong. iPod sales are now flat but iPhone sales exploding and Europe and Asia are just getting going.

It is unfortunate you didn't take the time to honestly present relevant detail about the Chinese iPhone rollout. Due to crazy negotiations, the current iPhones being sold DO NOT have WiFi capability. However, Apple and China have agreed on whatever they were fighting about and the next round of Chinese iPhones will be WiFi enabled. No one in their right mind would buy the current crippled model. Yet I promise you, Lucky, THOUSANDS of Chinese pay multiple times retail value for "jailbroken" iPhones which aren't crippled. These iPhones aren't reported as sales in any retail channel since they are "re-sales". In any case, your China analysis is fatally flawed and simplistic and absolutely can not be relied upon for any predictive value. Talk to me again in 18 months and we'll see how it's turned out.

Things are going along swimmingly in Japan. In July 2009, the top selling cellphone was the 3GS 32GB (the 3GS 16GB was number nine. These were the only American cellphones to crack the Japanese top ten. (in the spirit of honesty and transparency, rare enough in these parts, I would hazard to guess that there are some competing SKUs sold under different model numbers or carriers in Japan which, if aggregated, may total more than the 3gs32, but I don't know this for certain).

You aren't serious with the Google analogy are you?

Google is platform independent and OS agnostic. Google also offers the "flagship" in the world in terms of its search engine. Google does not have numerous competitive forces with vastly different monetization methods.

We got Songbird and content limited to the computer to where it was downloaded, not to mention incompatibility with the most popular media playing device on the planet.

Tireless efforts, eh?

My grandfather worked in the coal mines to support his family. To my knowledge, he never lied to anyone in his life and his word was bond.

"AK" stays in 5-star hotels (on our dime) and flies business class (again, on our dime), and promises what he knows he can't deliver all while he has no trouble diluting our interest in the company pimping out preferential shares to others. He does this while supposedly attempting to develop a business that hasn't earned a dime.

Save me the tireless, please. After the fourth lie, I lost faith in the man. And I think I was being generous.

rt

Past performance is the best predictor of future behavior.

aacdude- remarkably intelligent post, thank you. I've suggested that those who can't handle reading differing opinions start their own moderated www site (koolaidhub?) but no one seems to want to take the reins.

Fantastic!

I thought Darth and Pigeon1 were neck 'n neck for the most hilarious posts, but you trumped the pumps with your graphic. Hats off!

This has been, and continues to be, the most amusing "investing" thread I've ever read. I just hope that lessons are learned by those most obvious in need of a clue.

KTF- The sky is the LIMIT! Once we fail to launch ANYWHERE, PPS will be through the ROOF!!!!

Um, no offense at all is intended, but if you think reading Darth's (or anyone's) comments in here constitutes DD, then there is truly no point in continuing our discussion.

Nice stuff, mix!

Please provide evidence for your statement- "Darth is the one person on this board who's long term speculation has come through..."

Thanks.

I doubt we'll launch tomorrow in Aussie/NZ, seriously doubt the Malaysian launch will be timely, and in fact predict we NEVER launch in China. Other than that, I expect the news to be good...

Yea me!

I'm the 20,000 post in this thread of doom! (or so I think)

Anyway, KTF folks, there is absolutely no reason not to believe the other scheduled rollouts won't happen as planned.

I see $1.50, easy. This is going to be BIG folks!

This is great news!

After years of disappointing setbacks and embarrassing missteps, Allan seems to have finally developed a keen sense of humor. Music "ingestion" indeed! Think he's sitting in a hotel bar (on a tab, of course) with a crystal of Cognac chortling about this one-liner?

I may just back the truck up tomorrow if this baby is going to get fun again. Of course, there's definitely going to be a big run up, likely testing our 0.10 barrier so I may be too late.

Music ingestion... This is one for the record books... You know, prison is TOO GOOD for some folks...

I see. You make your allegations and then "take your toys and go home" when asked to provide support for what you're saying. Being defensive or taking things personally doesn't enhance one's credibility.

And as for sloppy journalism, wasn't it your post (19951) that quotes an article misstating that "Baidu said" they were partnering with Qtrax. Baidu didn't say squat, and you know this, other than to correct Qtrax.

And one final thing (sorry, but this is just a personal nit with me).... Posting or reading web articles is certainly NOT due diligence. The concept of DD is so misused on this board it is shocking. Perhaps the board should be renamed "Sheepshub"?

Seriously Qurious- please point me in the direction of the "revised" article. Everything I find looks pretty much as it was before.

Qurious, why not study YOUR history instead. What has Rosso lied about?

And is this what you are referring to?-
"But Qtrax says the deal is only for two specific Baidu portals, which would leave untouched Baidu's MP3 search engine, its most visible section for users looking to download songs. And comments from a Baidu representative on Wednesday did not confirm whether or how it would direct users to Qtrax. "The partnership with Qtrax regards text-based information, such as singer backgrounds; it has nothing to do with the music itself," the Baidu representative said via e-mail."

Qurious, I think you've lost your mind.

Here's what I think happened with Baidu-

PC World mentioned Qtrax and Baidu says "who, what?" Qtrax is nothing more than an insignificant customer to Baidu, and anyone who believes that AK has suddenly started telling the truth need to have their sanity checked. And for Qurious's statement "Again, with this news that Qtrax put out, if there was really something flawed about it, Baidu would not allow themselves to be connected to it" confounds reality as well. Qtrax can issue a PR saying pretty much anything they want. They can slander, or lie, or whatever. An impaired party could then attack. But it should be obvious from Baidu's reaction that Qtrax isn't even a significant blip on their radar. Absolutely flawed logic here, Qurious.

And what is with the vendetta wrt Rosso? He posted today in response to my comment that his skepticism seems to be valid (again), and is due apologies. Coloring him as a "stalker" or suggesting his two posts today means "something is up" completely undermines any credibility you may have.

Finally, I've searched the Sidney Morning Times, and a NZ newspaper as well-no mention of any rollout. And Qtrax site is silent about this. Had they successfully rolled out, wouldn't they be trumpeting this from the highest treetops.

Quit imagining enemies and calling those who are pointing out facts "trashers". Such vitriol should be instead focused on the folks who lie again, again, and again.

I'd say keep the faith but I forgot where I left it...

Well, the oft-derided Wayne Rosso said this-

"Then you get all excited over the announcement of a pay-per-click deal with Baidu that anyone could get and is not a "partnership". And he does so in a press conference where he does not take questions? Only picks the questions he wants to answer. That, gentlemen, is not a press conference.

Then you get pissed when Baidu doesn't back up his claims. BTW, remember MIDEM? Jesus has no problem blatantly misleading the world press. Who do you think has more credibility, PC World or AK?

Then you all say that he must make the Australian launch on time. And when the date rolls around, you are fed the story that its been delayed because of travel issues and then find out that it is because Jesus will not fly coach. "

I submit that all who dismissed or disparaged Mr. Rosso humbly apologize.

My god.

What has happened to you, Chewie?

I've not posted for probably 9,000 or more posts or so, after realizing that children like Dogcat or pumpers like AVDI had no interest in rational discourse about this speculative nightmare known as BLLN, but I've occasionally re-upped with this thread to see how things are going. In the last 2 weeks I've dumped about 800,000 shares in the $.024 range as it has become clear to me that this train wreck is going nowhere. I still have a few shares I'm holding for sentimental value but I've got no illusion that I screwed up by ever believing in the used car salesman AK and this ridiculous business model. And yes, it has been painful as I was around seven cents in cost basis, but hey, these are the pinkies, this is gambling, not investing, and I am a big boy, so I blame NO ONE but myself.

But what the heck has co-'opted you, Chewie? Even tho the masses were railing against you in the last few days, you really made sense talking about the contemptuous nature of AK's perpetual fraud, the continual lies and failed deliveries from the model itself, and the ridiculous nature of the imbeciles who purport to "know" what is going to go down with this pig based on their "friends"... While the charlatan known as "AK" flies on $15,000 business class tickets, staying in 5 star hotels, on our dime while he can't even write checks that don't bounce.

So, who got to you, and why did you cave? Did you actually capitulate to the amateur notion that posting critical thought somehow "hurt" this pig stock? Please tell me no. I hope it is more than that. Do you actually believe this pig has legs??? Really???

Anyway, I'd be interested in hearing why you've changed course on this if you don't mind sharing, and hopefully, next time, we will find a spec stock that isn't as poorly executed as this one has been.. I've learned a lesson, hopefully others that took it on the chin have as well.

GTD

Treo said-
"1. itunes has not been profitable until this year, & now only marginally. itunes was created for the secondary purpose of keeping consumers locked into the ipod."

Volume has been growing logarithmically. Of the 5 billion songs sold since inception, around 3 billion occurred in the last 15 months.

And, at least according to this-
http://blog.wired.com/music/2008/03/apple-apparentl.html

...profit seems hardly marginal now, with a gross margin of 30% per song and $570 in profit in 2007. But, I have no idea how reliable "Wired" reporting on a "Billboard" story really is. Unfortunately we can't get the answers from 10-k/q's either, unless someone in here is more talented using EDGAR than I..

I do... A nano, A touch, a shuffle, and my wife's 3g 30gb ...

I'd say the content breaks down for me something like this-

20% itunes
10% other paid distributors (Rhapsody/Amazon)
70% "other" ;)

Stand by it all you want, but it is rather absurd. Revenue from iTunes has been hugely relevant both to APPL and, to their dismay, the brick and mortar retail industry (and yes P2P has had an even bigger impact on these guys). In terms of folks actually making $ distributing music, iTunes is hardly a joke. 1% of "billions and billions" is nothing to sneaze at. And really, I think you need to get a sense of scale here. You say "5 billion over a 5 yr period ain't that much" compared to free and I reject that argument. QTRAX is well on its way to proving that free isn't free, as we have all noticed, not to mention that they seem to have abandoned their version of P2P, etc.

It is interesting you cite that 70% of the portable players "out there" are ipods, so DRM hasn't been an issue for apple. A couple posts back you quote Jupiter saying 84% of iPod owners don't get their music from iTunes. Figuring there's maybe 80 million or so iPods out there, and figure 20 album buys per iPod (pulling that out of my you know what), we still have three and half BILLION iTunes sales to account for.

Anyway, we've detoured to a off point tangent with the focus on iTunes here, my position is their success has been ahead of the most wildly optimistic predictions, and yours is that it is irrelevant since you feel QTRAX customers only consider p2p as an alternative. We have a valid argument, I'd say. I think p2p guys won't put up with anything less than the Napster/Kazaa/BitTorrent type model they're used to. If BLLN delivered what they said they were going to in a reasonable timeframe, things could have turned out differently. Sure as hell was why I bought in.

As for Jupiter, well, research is like economics. There is theory and there is practice, and the two sides generally don't get along. And trust me, companies like Jupiter know where there bread is buttered- as the Microsoft debacle indicates. But stepping back a second, the concept of "surveying" potentially illegal activity (downloading of copywritten content) with potential jeopardy to the user makes me sure question the quality of Jupiter's data. They can hardly go to ISP's and say "Hey, send us your stats on illegal downloads " And as far as surveys go, just like four out of five political research firms said Kerry would win in 2004, people often say things that are different from what they do.

But, if it makes you happy, , I'll gladly stipulate the p2p market is enormous, whatever the size it is...

As for my ever-increasing contrarian position with respect to BLLN: Investing generally involves folks buying securities believing the value will go up from sellers thinking the opposite. This forum certainly needs counterpointing as BLLN is so far looking like a bloodbath with very little rational reason to "ktf" for the promised upside, and I won't apologize for my role in that regard. I relish the discussion when my beliefs are challenged as I often emerge better informed than before.

I enjoy challenging you and others to stimulating discussions. You and lucky certainly provided p2p numbers that indicate a gargantuan market, kudos. I only wish I have seen something that makes me think QTRAX can tap into this.

Lucky-

That is an interesting link. I just tried to read the footnotes and based on the range of estimates, it seems like estimating P2P sharing is like herding cats. Does seem like the Canadian songwriters believe there is over a billion downloads per year (all inclusive, I think, not necessarily all illegal). So, maybe not exactly what I'd call solid "fact", but I concede at least a general range of concensus (of course, these guys want to aim high with their numbers since that artist association is advocating decriminalizing P2P by ISP taxes).

Treo-

You say "in terms of overall music consumption the itunes store is a joke of all jokes". You were just making your own joke, weren't you? ITunes is the number one music vendor in the US, period. And, outside of a few EMI listings, nothing sold by iTunes can play on any portable device other than an iPod (with the immaterial exception of 3 moto phones with horrible song capacity and implementation). And, if memory serves, wasn't Jupiter Research the same bunch of clowns who compared application interoperability between Microsoft and Linux a few years ago and found MS the winner. Then we found out MS funded the "study"...

Since I presume you are referring to me, choco, let me say I'll at least try the koolaid, since I do "nothing but complain" (perhaps a BLLN euphemism for stating the obvious)-

-Bungle the big rollout, after flubbing it for the previous 18 months, p
athetic execution, de-listing to pinkie status, you name it-- Great PR move, AK is BRILLIANT, please don't pardon the pun!

-Botch the followup to the failed rollout- more attention to QTRAX (curiously unsupported by nettraffic or number of users online)- SWEET! We got game!

-Pretend we don't notice while AK is grovelling for some VC cash to swoop in for a QTRAX spinoff so he can save what's left of his skin- Right on AK, Buffett beware!!!

BUT SERIOUSLY FOLKS... I write that rather sarcastic prose in direct response to your tone about my post. I was pretty much just talking about the facts, nothing else. I'm probably as screwed if not worse than anyone in here, and I would love to see this ship get righted, but if you guys insist to "KTF" in the current management, I will not stoop to silly rationalizations to agree. And no offense, if you guys only want to feel sunshine being blown you know where, I'd recommend T-bills...

Single malt is on me if I am wrong. I'll be HAPPY to buy!!

pssst. take a look at ngnm if you have a sec.

rt

Well, ok, Mac support nonexistent, iPod support a pipe dream?

If I'm missing something PLEASE share...

Really, Lucky?

Please cite your research. That is a heck of a statistic- not saying you're making it up, but I'd sure like to see where you coming from with this.

Treo, I realize when AAPL comes up in these parts, folks have an unnatural reaction. But when you say-

"for every 1 person you find that is willing to pay 99 cents for a song, i'll find you a 1000 who won't. the cold hard facts are that 99% of all songs stored on mp3 portable devices were ripped from CDs or stolen via p2p. Apple only sells on average about 6 songs per Ipod."

...I wonder how good your cold hard facts are. As of June 2008, iTunes has sold 5 BILLION songs in its store and accounts for 70% of worldwide digital music sales. I'd love to see your stat supporting 500 billion cd-rip/P2P songs living on players in the known universe.

For me, the significant take from Rhapsody's capitulation is that they've gone 180 degrees- "Rhapsody believes that their incompatibility with the iPod was in part to blame for their lack of market penetration: "We're no longer competing with the iPod," Rhapsody Vice President Neil Smith said. "We're embracing it.""

AND, this relates directly to QTrax in that not only is Mac support mythical at this stage, but so is (WAY more importantly) iPod compatibility.

An intermediate 3rd party software fix (for ipod compatibility) is not going to be the kind of solution that brings the number of users I've hoped for.

BLLN is getting murdered for non/slow and incomplete execution. I know I am preaching to the choir with respect to that bit of not so new news, but every new competitor and every new, different distribution model that ponies up while AK continues to flounder makes our eventual success less likely.

OK, next time I'll have a sunnier disposition...

rt

Lopaka says-
" GoQtrax, I had alot of respect for you, but when you said I'm done-I have to be honest with you, YOU sounded like my spoiled little shit of a second son when things don't go his way. My point GoQ grow the fu@@ up."

What a classic case of the pot calling the kettle black. As I pointed out several thousand posts ago, the behavior of a few childish individuals makes this "hub" rather difficult to use to glean any relevant information.

The validity of GoQtrax sources has never been vetted for sure, but at least, right or wrong, he attempted to bring some level of analysis or prediction to this board.

Really, if you and three or so of your friends would take your own advice, we might have something worthwhile here. In the meantime, if folks want to babble about Las Vegas or homo-erotic fantasies, why not just start your own damn blogs? It is painful to read, but being stuck with BLLN, there just aren't that many other places to visit.

OK, "kiddie-proof" flame retardant suit now on!

GTD

I understand where you're coming from now. Thanks for the clarification.

By the way, as a "burnt" long holder here, I have to say I don't think R2 was beaten decisively in terms of his arguments- he was just overwhelmed by the number of folks drinking the kool-aid in there.

Treotreo, you said:
"without getting too much off topic, AT&T absolutely was suubisiding 1st gen iphone, just go to apple site & lookl at the diff in price between iphone with contract or without.

at&t now raised their minimum plan by $10 a month,minimum contract = 2 years , so at&t gets an extra $240 to recoup their subsidy cost. "

I agree, this is off-topic, but I have to object to your point.

AT&T paid APPLE around $18.00/month for every iPhone v.1 activated. APPL sold the iPhone at a price excluding the contract that was higher for sure, or you could get a "discount" by activating via AT&T.

Granted the end result in terms of cost over contract to the consumer is pretty much the same, but now AT&T will NOT pay apple the monthly charge- however, rules have been tightened to ensure v2 iPhones must be activated via AT&T. If the customer cancels the contract he's charged the AT&T subsidy of $200.

V1- AT&T pays APPLE for the privilege of exclusivity
V2- AT&T pays the customer to induce the contract

Pretty much works out the same in the wash, but still represents different concepts.

AVDI wrote-
"i had to copy this news story because i could not get the link to work....but i thought this was pretty big news about how sleeeeeeeeezy apple really is....judge for your self....this giant needs to be brought down by someone in a big way.."

My response- WHAT in the world are you talking about?

Yes, for the new iPhone AT&T will charge $30/month for an unlimited data plan. But guess what- that has ALWAYS been their rate for 3G data plans for the other phones they sell. Yeah, the first gen iPhone had a data deal $10 cheaper (an apple-only AT&T discount), BUT AT&T was not subsidizing the cost of the first gen phone- they ARE now- to the extent of $200.

If your point is that in 20 months, time value of money ignored, a iPhone 2 customer will be out the same amount of cash as he would be under the prior deal, well, yeah, sure. And during that 20 months he'll enjoy a 3G phone that is 2.8 times faster than the crappy EDGE receiver in v.1.

In any case, I can't for the life of me understand why you think apple is sleezy (with respect to the new iphone).

gtd

"absolutely....you can almost bet that someone from Apple is monitoring this board as well giving Steve daily input on our posts....would not surprise me in the least. "


LOL!

That is classic AVDI- sure glad I was lurking today! (you have me snorting my coffee).

I'm going to loose my mind....

ROTFLMAO!

Very nice, Qurious.

gtd

Sorry, Brooklyn, but your talking "crazy talk" here.

gtd

Am I reading you right, Brooklyn?

A PR firm for contract negotiation?

Isn't that like using a dentist for knee surgery?

I mean, I could understand the role of a PR firm if we were talking about GM getting ready to negotiate a UAW contract, but I am not sure I get this one.

GTD

GoQtrax, if you do have "his" ear, it may be well to evangelize openmoko, figure he has heard about it tho.

Pretty much the coolest smartphone that doesn't start with "i", completely open source/Linux kernal, huge (read passionate) developer community. Logical tie-in for any number of reasons- the non-US specific scope of openmoko, the sophistication and "spread the word" passionate nature of the users, who, being open source fans are used to NOT paying for things (software, music, whatever). The fact Songbird traces its roots to Mozilla, etc.. Heck, even the fact that a decent segment of Linux fans are folks who, for one reason or another, are pissed at APPL.

General info-
http://www.openmoko.com/

Here's the music player-
http://wiki.openmoko.org/wiki/Music_Player


gtd