Looking for my next Forex trade
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Yep stargate, I really hate being right on stuff like that and not holding...LOL!
The pattern was set for collapse. A likely target near term is the overall 38.2 fib at 106.55. That's why I had 107 in mind for a TP for my short the other day.
Just an FYI...based on the USD/DKK chart, EU is getting ready for a leg down soon and it's probably going to be a pretty nice drop.
Adding USD/DKK long at 6.5181. Jus slowly building positions on this pullback as we go along.
Market has just died in this area so I took the profit on the AU short at 0.7542 instead of 0.7435.
I'm through shorting it this far down for now. It'll likely drop some more, maybe even to just below 0.75. But I'm more interested in the final test of that upper zone area near 0.7680 to load up the shorts for the larger move down later.
AU hourly chart...
Glad to help, Jav. The 5 minute chart can be a blast since we don't have to wait too long for things to pan out one way or another.
He uses that same diagram in several of his videos. The odds enhancers ones have it for sure.
Ok Jav, have a good one.
Sam gives all the best details in his videos Jav. There are several subtle hints to it. Look for the videos labeled Odds Enhancers...they give the best info on what a true zone looks like.
It takes a good bit of practice but eventually they start standing out.
What I do is look for the most obvious ones that match the best possible pattern, like this one. These are the ones that Sam attributes the greatest success to.
What you want to see is a very small, tight channel where the candles go absolutely flat and sideways...4 to 6 candles...no less than 3 for sure...no swings outside of that tight channel. The zones are not going to be big...maybe 20 or 30 pips at most. Also, it's better if there aren't any wicks outside the channel. If you have to make the channel a lot wider to cover wicks on one candle, chances are it's NOT a valid zone.
Also, the departure from the zone has to be extreme, not just a gradual regular size candle departure. It has to leave in a hurry in a really huge candle. That tells you that there is a big imbalance at that zone and that imbalance is likely to still be there the next time around.
And now the EA charts.
Really, the only thing in control at this point on EA is the weekly zones. I still fully expect the upper red zone to get hit dead on.
I've included an EA 4 hour chart also. There's only 2 smaller zones standing in the way of a breakout topside. The most critical one is the one right at the 1.58 area.
Ok Jav, here's the NJ daily, 4 hour, and hourly charts. There's probably zones I've missed but these are the major ones in play right now.
What you want to do is concentrate on price action in between the 2 controlling zones on the large time frame. See which one price is closer to if possible on the daily chart. If it's halfway in between, then drop to the 4 hour chart to see where you are there on the zones. Whichever one you're closer to is likely the one that's drawing price in like a magnet.
The general rule is that if price is in an overall downtrend on the large time frame, you only want to short it at key supply zones. If the larger trend is up, then you only want to go long at key demand zones.
NJ has been going sideways lately but if you zoom out to the weekly chart, all we've done is create a small sideways zone with the primary trend still down.
I included a weekly chart at the very bottom showing how all of those zones stack up on the larger view. There are a heck of a lot more supply zones than demand zones, so we still want to look for shorts primarily.
We're basically working our way down to the .69 area if you look at the weekly chart.
I basically just start with the daily chart and work my way down from there Jav. The system works on any time frame. Once I have it laid out all the way down to the hourly, I'll drop down to the 5 or 15 minute charts to hone it in a bit more. I also like to lay out the fibs across certain runs to see how the zones correlate to the fib levels. Like the fib boxes, the zones that correlate closest to major fib levels seem to work the best.
I'll get those charts done for you in a bit here...the wife has me cooking supper for the gang.
Yep, that's what they say. But BOJ intervention in the past hasn't worked on a case by case basis for very long. The market winds up selling it right back down again. So I'll just mark the key upper zones and short it again if the price action says to.
There's several really nice fresh supply zones sitting on it's head here on the UJ 4 hour chart...
Missed my entry by 2 lousy pips on the UCAD short. Not chasing it though. Leaving the short order to trigger at 1.3220. The zone will either get hit or it won't.
Headed out for a while...back later.
Nah...I can't make myself do it...I can't hold a UJ short this far down...LOL!
I'm such a wimp...closed out for a couple of pips profit. I'd rather wait even though it looks like it's gonna collapse.
UJ is breaking the long standing weekly channel to the downside. As low as it is, it's saying go short so short I am at 110.47. TP set for 1.07.
Typical Stephen's blah-blah in the RBA statement. Nothing fancy. So now we wait some more.
I've read that this has been happening recently but the chart in this article shows the same thing happening again that happened before the big market crash last time. The only thing keeping the stock market propped up back then were company buybacks...companies buying their own stock to keep prices elevated.
Now we're back at record levels again. Companies are pumping excess cash into stock buybacks at a tremendous level. When you consider that the majority of these companies are the big ones in the DOW and the S&P, it explains what keeps stock levels elevated when everything else internally is showing declines.
Basically, it's like retail buyers in the market...the heaviest activity comes right near the tops.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/28/companies-that-do-buybacks-do-worst-over-time-.html
There's the hit on the next AU demand zone...almost to the pip. I hate being right and not holding a trade....grrrr!
RBA rate news coming out tonight around 11:30 Central so no more positions till after that. Still have some long term positions running with TP set at 0.72 on those.
Let's see what we get. RBA has voiced public concern over the higher price on AU lately. They definitely won't raise rates but they're likely to leave them the same. If the rate is left the same, folks will be paying very close attention to the language of the release of the statement. Stephens is likely to be dovish and may even mention future rate cuts in the statement.
The surprise would be is if they cut rates by 25 basis points at this stage.
NU 15 Minute Chart
Since the last push down went a pip or so beyond the zone I had marked, I went back and looked closer. There's another zone further down around 0.6765 that lines up very nicely with the larger Fib Box 1 level. That would be the better spot to go long so I closed out my current long for just a couple of pips.
Long NU, looking for a TP of 0.6850.
Back in short on AUD/NZD again at 1.1112. TP set for 1.10.
Yep stargate, I'm counting on it.
Hey Heavy. Very true...the zones and the spike patterns have a lot in common. But I've also found that there are some subtle differences between a spike as a pivot and a spike as a true zone.
In the past, I probably would have tried going against the grain and playing the moves back up to those spikes. Now, I've gotten to where I sit back and wait on the move to complete after evaluating any potential true zones in the area to see if I can get in on the larger trend. Overall, it seems to be working out better that way.
I can remember many times trying to catch the move back to a spike area like that and waiting forever before price finally made it back there. Now I just put it on a watch list and trade something else while I'm waiting on it.
I'm also finding that even the zones are that way. Price can take ages to finally make it back to an actual zone so rather than wait on it, I just book profits part way between the two. I think you've mentioned in the past that the halfway point is a good area to cash out and that seems to work well.
GJ Hourly Chart
Very nice short opp up around 160.55 if it gets back there anytime soon. Lower support zone doesn't kick in until 155.50.
Shorting is favored over longs right now so I wouldn't necessarily expect to go long at the bottom zone. I would rather go short at the upper zone.
GJ Hourly Chart
AU 15 Minute Chart
Looks like AU created yet another major supply zone on this last trip down. I've colored the original zone from red to white, showing that it is no longer a fresh zone. But, the new zone is still fully valid since it only scraped the bottom and then fell apart.
According to Sam's use of zones, a retest of the new red zone would be most favorable if price manages to get back into the zone just slightly higher than the previous peaks. It might be only by a pip or two but his supply and demand theory is based on the idea that more orders would be waiting at a slightly higher level which would make the rejection odds even stronger.
So any move back towards 0.7675 or so would be the most favorable short based on this idea.
Your approach is actually one of the best to take, Kirby. I know many pro traders who recommend learning one pair inside and out and sticking with it only. One of the downfalls of retail trading is watching too many pairs at once and getting lost in the jungle, so to speak.
About once every couple of weeks, I'll actually go in a delete all of my charts and set back up only with 3 or 4 that I'm interested in watching. That keeps me from being too distracted.