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NURO sold ex-US rights to GSK for up to $26.5mn in Jan/18
Present MC = ~$20mn
Zero debt
There is now a path to profitability w/o further dilution
Can the company make it to profitability ?
( A Quell device sells for $250 )
PFSCF FDA delayed BLA + Chinese partnership was written off
FDA requested more CMC data
Equity gets a 30% wrecking on company's effort to get all bad news out of the way at once
Files a $250mn shelf for 200mn shares. Thomson family not backstopping further development. Less than a year of cash left.
CDEV is expecting to grow production to 60,000 bd BY 2020 from 19700 bd in 2017.
It has 80,000 bet acres of the most oil rich acres in the Permian
CEO is the notable Mike Papa
If one believes we nearing the end of the oil age, continued firmness of POO in a time when barriers to entry to exploration will make superior acreage very profitable
* Put on permanent watchlist
ATTO is a Brazilian CRM that has recently returned to rev. growth
4th largest CRM in the world.
Bain sold 25% of their holdings in 2017 and it still owns 2/3 outstanding shares.
TEF is a 40% customer
In Q4/2017 they lost a non-adjusted .12/share and missed estimates by .03/share.
Hopes that this share price will grow are pinned on Brazilian economic growth and customer diversification. I see the Bain holding as a giant headwind.
I would consider shorting this above 12.
ESV is worth watching for a long term investment
World oil demand is rising. India hydrocarbon use is growing like a cancer. If one defines subhumans as people who reproduce irresponsibly, Indians are a country of subhumans who continue to grow demand for hydrocarbons (and propagandize their subhuman H1-B applicants) As an aside, you should track the incidents of executives from the SUB-continent who are involved in accounting irregularities. They are significantly over-represented. How do you know when one is lying? You know the punchline.
Prem Watsa & Einhorn initiated positions in Q4, 2017.
In 2017, Industry customers rated ESV first among its peers in total satisfaction.
Ensco top 3 customers are TOT, BP & PBR.
Cash = 1.2Bn, while $308mn debt matures thru 2023.
Did they pay too much for ATW? Possibly. Doing so was a bet that offshore oil would recover by 2020. They may be early by a couple years or so.
Wall Street over-capitalizes hot areas to the point where ROI risk reward is impaired for years - decades.
* One commentor suggests buying when COT data is bullish and shale production slows.
FIXX is a recent early stage, gene therapy IPO
Lead product is a pre-Ph1 therapy for PKU
As of 12/31/17, net cash was $90mn. Gross proceeds from IPO was ~$100mn.
NVS is a partner and investor
ACTG is diversifying away from patent trolling into technology incubation.
trades at discount to tangible book value, as 3/18.
Activist investor recently became involved
First foray into technology incubation was VERI. Their 2016 investment has proven very successful.
Since then they have made 2 additional investments:
1) Miso Robotics: a developer of a robotic kitchen assistant for
commercial kitchens.
2) Bitzumi: a decentralized cryptocurrency exchange involving the
Altucher the Hideous
* Set google alert for 'Miso Robotis, IPO'
TOCA has an ongoing Ph3 genetic therapy to treat recurrent high grade glioma.
There were 127 patients in the Ph1 study. Survival was prolonged relative to historical benchmarks. Also, there were 5 complete responses.
Treatment has been designated a breakthrough therapy. As a result, no data analysis was published on the Ph2 portion of the study.
As of Q4/2017, cash = $88.7mn. Projected spending for 2018 is $50mn
If Ph3 is a success, I will consider buying the first pullback on first trading day after the read-out and making a decision to about how much to hold based on the MC, at the time.
CDTX reported positive Ph2 outcome for its antifungal during 3/18
Cash runway will not finance the two Ph3 studies it must run
will likely raise capital in 2018.
Value of equity is being impacted by the fact that all its competing treatments will be generic by the time the CDTX antifungal is ready for launch.
Equity is also being impacted by bearish sentiment for antibiotics in development. Market is uncertain about ample take-out values.
CYDY may be a take-out depending on the results of its Ph2B/3 trials.
PH2B/3 monotherapy trial will be enrolled in Q3 2018, but will have to show efficacy for 48 weeks.
This could be the biotech story of 2019.
Layman's summary of the science:
*All HIV treatments except one inhibit different steps in viral
replication
*PFE's Selzentry is the only approved HIV therapy to target the host
receptor rather than the virus
*Selzentry increases T-cell count as well as reducing viral load in
those with H-5 HIV
*CYDYs Pro 140 not only treats H-5 HIV, but may prevent it. Its longer half life has been validated by One-injection Ph1 & 2A POC
trials
*Ph3 Monotherapy study is enrolling.
*Pro 140 is also in Ph2 in GVHD
*Pro 140 may also be used in West Nile Virus
VTGN hopes its ketamine-like compound will have less side effects and similar anti-depressant efficacy to Ketamine
MC < 30mn indicates that the market is not optimistic about this drug's prospects
Crux of bear thesis: If AV-101 is not as effective as ketamine as an analgesic, why would it have similar anti-depressant qualities.
SMRT suddenly seems like it could turnaround.
Earnings on 3/14/18 went from a year ago Q of (7.0mn) to a profit
of 7.3mn
Big box discounters like TJ Max and ROST are doing well in this environment. They do not rely on mall traffic. The new strategy seems to // those stores.
Until this Q, bankruptcy seemed inevitable. Now, there is the possiblity of a 10-bagger if their treasure hunt big box strategy
continues to work.
diversified to shoes with a store-in-store arrangement with DSW.
*Also learned that in today's commercial real estate environment that the Deferred Rent item in liabilities is often a slush account
that will never get paid in full.
Put on permanent watch list.
GILD is growing HIV business, but not nearly at the rate that its HCV business is declining
Cash = 36.7Bn on 12/31/17
Debt is ~33Bn
repatriating 5.5Bn in 2018 to reduce debt
will pay 0.57/share divy in 2018
spent 12.57Bn to acquire Kite and Cell Design Labs in 2017
Avoid, too many parts moving in different directions.
Sold CDLX position AH for ave 16.98
Tiny gain on decent earnings. I was hoping for more fireworks.
AEHR stabilized its business when it became a provider of semiconductor test equip. to AAPL wireless charging and
augmented reality efforts.
Earnings released on 1/14/18 revealed a new customer and significant
y/y revenue growth
TER & FORM are competitors in a similar space.
Orders from Foxconn & other top 4 customers seem to be declining over the last few months of 2017.
CTIC raised $55.8mn in 2/18 and now has a cash runway thru 2019
developing a compound for those ineligible for Ruxolitinib. CELG also has interest in the area, have recently acquired a similar compound
FDA clinical hold has been lifted by moving forward with a lower dose. During the clinical hold, FDA allowed compassionate use of
the compound
In 3Q18, MAA will decide on marketing approval.
1Q19, MAA will read out Ph3.
I added to my RTTR position this morning.
I now have a 60% position @ .299
LFIN is a RegA+ IPO from 12/13/17
MC has ballooned from $382Mn to $3.27Bn on 3/16/18
LFIN is a fintech holding company. Most of the value increase
can be attributed to the acquisition of crypto microlending company:
Ziddu
Ziddu ICOd a ziddu coin that is basically Ethereum w/o much, if any, innovation
CEO is a ridiculous millennial creep who went on Fast Money after the IPO and admitted the valuation of his company was insane.
White Diamond Research recommends selling calls.
TORC ipod 6.5mn shares on 1/26/18 @ $15
Cash is ~$140mn. Burn rate will be about $6mn / Q in 2018
Product addresses immunosenescence of naturally compromised populations. Bull case hinges on whether this is an unmet need.
Is it?
Lead program is in Ph2a. Three other programs in the clinic.
Licensed a compound from NVS for combo trial(s).
Not a 2018 story.
ZS gained 106% on its first day of trading
Cloud security firm with Rev growth of 51% for the 6 months prior
to IPO. Losses were also up 32% for the same period
After first day of trading, company trades at 15x annual billing
American exchanges are starved for new equity.
BLCM will be re-set when the BPX 501 clinical hold is resolved
BPX 501 protocol changes have already been submitted to the FDA: http://ir.bellicum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bellicum-pharmaceuticals-provides-operational-update-and-3
Curiously, no BPX 501-related encephalopathy have been reported in the European registration study.
Reported positive interim Ph2 open label data in pediatric patients with acute AML & primary immunodeficiency 3/18.
Cash runway can be stretced thru Q1,2019
I speculate that dilution will occur not long after the lifting of the clinical hold.
DBX will ipo the week of 3/19/18
grew revs ~30% in 2017
According to the Down Round strategy, it may present a trading opty in the weeks ahead:
*Down Round strategy is set up when a company goes public at
significant discount to latest private valuation.
*Recently, Cloudera & MongoDB have provided trading opties after
pricing at Down Rounds.
*At $18/below, DBX will trade at least 20% less than latest private
valuation
SPNS = chronic underperforming insurance industry software provider
Growth depends on its new Stone River product offering. They spent alotta R & D developing it.
If new product offering challenges GWRE, growth could invigorate stock price.
May be worth listening to next earnings webcast / investor presentation or watching the chart for signs of accumulation.
EVA is a utility-grade wood pellet MLP with >9% yield
World demand for wood pellets is forecast to grow at 18% CAGR thru 2021.
Organic growth can also be acheived thru productivity improvements and price escalators.
Cautions:
I do not like the chart of this stock.
Also,I believe that utility scale wood pellet production is a bad idea until world population trends are brought under control.
CLF is no longer just an iron ore focused miner
By 2020, it will be transformed to a pure play
critical supply chain component for north american steel plants
It will likely have 3 EBITDA positive streams:
* North American Iron Ore Mining
* Toledo HBI making feed stock for Electric Arc Furnaces
* DR-pellet feedstock operation for Toledo HBI
Trump tariff is downside protection rather than a significant boost
In any market crash scenario, this would be one to stalk.
IQ = NFLX of China
May be Chinese IPO of 2018
BIDU owns 80.5% and will still control company after IPO
Be sure and watch BIDU chart when IPO date becomes more clear
People all over the world are being propagandized by shitty entertainment. Just look at Netflix spEW like "Winter on Fire". There's no way globalist filth will fail to make IQ a HUGE success.
I bought 1/4 position UGAZ @ 59.12 I'm willing to make it a full position.
I have taken 1/3 position in RTTR @.301
I'm willing to increase position to 1/2.
I believe there will be a big pump after the reverse split.
RTTR will reverse split by the end of 3/18
given new life by Baker Bros., who have arranged new capitalization and (supposedly) human capital to create/implement a new study design.
lead program treats lactose intolerance.
severe lactose intolerance may in some cases be confused with irritable bowel syndrome.
IMRN reported positive Ph2 POC NASH study 3/18.
This is a novel NASH treatment that reduces a bacterial endotoxin with zero adverse events.
There is reason to be cautious about this treatment until other endpoints are improved.
Company generates >900K /yr from a travelers diarrhea treatment, that is GRAS in the USA.
Increased CDLX to 1/3 position. I will hold thru earnings on Monday 3/19.
WLDN reported exceptionally good results on 3/8/18
Q/Q rev growth = 11.7%
Y/Y rev growth = 30.8% Y/Y bottom line growth = 46.2%
Raised full year guidance from 10% to 7-15%
Company recently changed focus to "Local Capacity Requirements" consulting" for California renewable energy programs.
Highly dependent on California greener infrastructure scheme referred to as 179D. The renewal of this program means 0.10/share
to the company.
I don't care for guidance or govt welfare stocks, especially because
California is disaster waiting to happen.
HK divested far flung assets to focus on Delaware Basin (near Permian) as part of their bankruptcy re-org.
Their purchase price for this land package is significantly less than its replacement value.
Building out infrastructure to increase the value of hydrocarbons in the ground.
Shale HCs will likely remain in glut conditions for the rest of 2018.
SNSS has a molecule in the same class as Ibrutinib, but recently delayed Ph1/2 study.
So,other pharmas have drugs in this class, including: LOXO, BGNE & ARQL
Will probably need cash by the end of 2018.
HLTH P/E = 5 x 3/8/18 Earnings
Operates Surgical Centers & Medical Clinincs in Houston & Arizona
Focus on patients with out of network private pay insurance
Avoids Medicare/Medicaid
Historically zero receivable write-offs
Made accretive acquisition Q4,2017.
Plans to diversify into sleep centers.
WUBA
Craigslist of China
Strategy = sacrifice today's margins for tomorrow's market share
Business Model:
* Merchants pay re-occurring fees fro preferential
listings/storefront
* Real-time bidding and priority listing fees
Natural winner takes all industry confirmed by Tencent minority investment
With increasing market dominance will gain ability to increase margins from ~20% to 50%
Ancillary Business:
* Chinese Task Rabbit
* Online Used Auto Trader
* Chinese Air BnB
Mitochondrial Peptides and CWBR:
PRTK has PDUFA for its IV-Oral Antibiotic 10/2/18.
Indications are CABP & Skin Infection.
The hook for this treatment is that hospital patients can be started on IV and moved to oral when they are dismissed. This versatility will be a competitive economic advantage allowing patients to be dismissed in as little as 3 days.
PRTK's compound is broader sprectrum , covering some Gram negs that now require two antibiotics in hospital (that do not have an oral option) and therefore a longer time in hosptial (5-7 days)
The cheapest competing molecule is the generic zyvox (linezolid) Unfortunately, it is associated with Serotonin Syndrome in patients taking SSRIs.
RGNX
has Two Ph1/2 readouts in late 2018:
*Wet AMD
*Homozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia (HOFH)
Cash runway extends thru 2020.
Out-licensed its NAV technology for 20 different potential therapeutics.
*put on permanent watchlist
EGRX is at earliest a H-2 2018 story.
8/18 Fulvestrant Ph3 study will be read out. This is Eagle's largest pipeline opty. It's administration benefits may make it
an attractive target for Sanofi. By the time it could be approved
in 2019, generics will have eroded SNY revenues for this compound.
12/18 Ryanodex Ph3 exertional heat stroke data will be read out, unless there is another stampede at hajj.
8/18 If there is another stampede at hajj, this trial is screwed. As for myself, I will be praying to the gods of population control, holding my breath and crossing my toes for another stampede.