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Bob, Is this what you were looking for
whitelake
Hi Tom, "Gains?" I'm not sure I could recognise one, since it has been a while since the last one showed it's head over here.
Like Steve I'll be mostly IRA.
whitelake
Hey Steve, The discussion has been great! I especially like your idea of Lichello's 'swap option' and $$$$ being another possible equity. Mr. L would probably say that we are over complicating things especially with his eternal perspective.
whitelake
Bob or Matt,
Is there any problem with using the InvestersHub logo with a link on my home page?
whitelake
Hi Karel, I think you have the basic idea and have pointed out some negatives. The question is; Will the positives out weigh them?" I like missing AIM buys if the stock is headed south for a long run, and getting them all at once nearer the bottom. The "whipsaws" would happen and would have to be offset by the gain of being out when it drops big.
It is hard to look at a chart of history and say what you would have done. What was happening on the day the TA signal was given? Did you even have time to fool with it that day? Were you feeling bullish or bearish that day? I'll just try it in real life and get a truer picture of the complications involved. There is no test like real life.
whitelake
Hi Rien, You have summarized it pretty well. As to your question,I just don't see an advantage of using AIM at all if the TA is so successful. I have these thoughts.
We still need the discipline that AIM offers in a rising market. An AIM sell signal would be needed to force us to take profits when TA was saying don't sell the stock is still rising. On the way down AIM would be giving us the level of commitment for when TA said buy. The AIM set up would give us the structure to be "invested" for the longer term as opposed to just hopping from stock to stock. If ever the TA was too bothersome then, it could be turned off (assuming that you were in the stock at the time}. It would be back to auto pilot. These ideas would probably be to time consuming if you had many AIM accounts to watch, but for a guy like me with only a few it could work.
I will begin giving it a real life test now, and the maybe later on I can present the idea with more clarity. Maybe buy then I'll just want to forget about it.
whitelake
Hi Karel, The charts only showed the TA side of the idea. I am not able to meld that with AIM in chart form yet. My basic idea is that the TA works inside AIM. If we would start an AIM account at the same time with the same stock, then at any given point our software would show the accounts to look alike. My buys would be entered but not traded unless TA indicators said to be in the stock. Behind the scenes I would move cash in my shadow account to CashS. CashS would rise as the buy signals were generated till TA gave the buy confirmation then all CashS would go to the stock purchase. Later on a TA sell indication might send the stock back to CashS, and I would be out of the stock all together. All sell indications would be taken in accord with Idiot Wave recommended Cash level even if TA was saying to be in the stock. I would not pass up a chance to replenish cash and take profits. The number of shares owned would not be the same in the AIM program and the shadow account. It seems at first glance that the benefits would be more on the buy side and when a stock is oscillating back and forth in the 30% no trade zone.
Please bare in mind that these ideas are in the early stages, and like a big goose can be shot down if it flies too low.
whitelake
Hey Rien, I agree that TA is the "wild card" here and when it is played will effect the outcome greatly. It seems that the longer term trend will have a lot to do with the ease of this idea. GE in a range would be a lot different than SCH in a down trend. It seems at first guess that it would help more in a downtrend at conserving real cash than in a more bullish situation. I have only been at AIM for about a year and am slowed down at fully converting by the mess after year 2000. The hind site application of TA to those two existing accounts showed a dramatic change. It was enough of an improvement to warrant some real life tests for me. The negatives you pointed out will probably prevail, but it is worth a look deeper.
whitelake
Hey Conrad,Lichello Series(10,8,5,4,5,8,10.) must refer to Mr. L's one million dollar price move sequence refered to on p64 of his 4th edition.
whitelake
Steve, I guess my version will be LAIM Lake AIM. The Excel idea crossed my mind today also, but it might be a while on that for me. Maybe someday we can swap spread sheets. I'm interested in seeing if any of the analytical minds have any thoughts on this.
whitelake
Hey Steve, I'm in the 4th edition of Mr. L's book and it seems you are closer to him with your basket approach, but I like the individual stock approach. Your other ideas seem to very much be in the same direction that I'm heading.
whitelake
Hi ET, Yes I simulated using the TA in an ongoing AIM account. If you would look at the AIM account you wouldn't know that anything strange was going on. The triggers are; The 5 day SMA crossing over or under the 13 day at the same time Williams %R crossed the center line. And the MACD lines offering confirmation. I worked it out on 3 months charts for better definition, but it would have taken three charts to show the info instead of the one I showed.
whitelake
TAIM---Technical AIM
My Schwab AIM account is OK, but what if it could be sparked to greater life with a little TA? The idea being to maintain the AIM account in PCA exactly as it is called for, but cheat with a second set of books that AIM doesn't know about. It would be like a little side action. Well if what I show in this first trial would have proved true, then all the action would have been on the side. SCH was started in AIM on 6/5/01 and it is only down 11%, but with TAIM it would be up +14%. I'm not used to presenting ideas through this medium, but here goes.
The TA using Williams %R, MACD, and two SMA's(5 an 13 day). These would be my three triggers, and with them I would go completely to cash at times. The cash would be in a hidden "Cash S" that would not effect the orders from AIM. If AIM said to buy and TA said no then I would show the trade in AIM without any stock transaction. Money would flow from cash to "Cash S". Cash S would grow bigger for when TA said to be in the stock. The actual account had 8 trades since 6/5/01. With TAIM it would have been 5 trades. My one actual Sell on 1/04/02 of 5% would have been against TA indications, but that seems needed to make it work as AIM was designed to work.
Below are annotated charts from StockCharts showing only the TA part of the equation. It is unknown if in practice these turning points could be captured without to much effort. I realize that the stock world has always sought the perfect timing device, and that this is probably a mirage. Maybe some comments will help me learn. SCH was at 19.01 when the AIM account was started on 6/5 and it was at 14.35 when I finished this study today. I also ran my nearly one year old GE account through the drill and it would have gone form -22% to -4%.
whitelake
test
whitelake
Hey Bruce, Sounds like you and me have a few things in common. Did you see this post over on the Q&A board?
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=290677
It speaks to your question, and I needed to reread it myself.
whitelake
Hey RMK, In regard to your comment on OT posts,
"Relatedly, there are many comments re the traffic on the board and for awhile multiple messages re radios, engine blocks, weather, recipes, vacations, etc. were really cluttering things up."
MHO is that a little humanity creeping in is good, and to know that people here are real folks makes it more interesting for me. If the OT doesn't interest me then I fast forward.
whitelake
Hey Steve, I found this interesting on Williams %R.
http://stockcharts.com/education/What/IndicatorAnalysis/indic_williamsR.html
I have been looking at it on some daily charts and the 28 day seems for me to be better than the 14. I really like the TA school at StockCharts.com. My goal is to be 100% AIM invested, but like you I feel knowledge on TA is good.
whitelake
TEST
whitelake
TEST
whitelake
TEST
TEST
Tom,Thanks for the weather update. I had forgotten why I like the Gulf Coast.
whitelake
et, Take a look at these tutorials by Jon Gilson.
http://www.bfree.on.ca/HTML/index.htm
I'm on Lesson 9 and so is my daughter who has four kids. It doesn't take long to get the basics.
whitelake
et, My ISP gives 10Meg to put your own page on, and I have learned enough html in the last few days to make a rough web page. That image and a couple of others are stored there on their ftp server. IHUB inspired me to do it when I saw others posting images and I couldn't. Knowledge envy!
whitelake
et, You are doing a great job bringing over the Q&A Board. Anybody that hasn't checked it out should.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=992
whitelake
TEST
TEST
Tom, Thanks for bringing the PIC list over here and keeping it alive.
whitelake
Hey Toofuzzy, As they say "been there done that". I can relate to your references to MI. It makes me want some Peptodismal (the pink stuff) due to the flashbacks I'm having to September, 2000. For me it was Maniacal Investing. AIM is like "lying down by still waters".
Whitelake
Hey Tom, Funny you should mention the PIC list, as I was just thinking about it. I hope it is going to survive the transition to IHUB. As you may remember I started AIMing SCH because it fit your Value Line formula and was also on the PIC list. Today my GTC for 12.34 tripped at the open for 12.25 and used the last of the cash. Then it was up and away to close at 13.35.
whitelake
This is a good board to follow. I have it marked as a favorite, and it is where Bob posts his changes to the site. I like to watch the features as they develop.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=283293
whitelake
LemonHead, I like the Value Line angel even if I don't get to go. The probability of going would increase if it was within a 600 mile radius of SW Louisiana, that is unless we strike oil between now and then. I benefited from last year even though I didn't go thanks to the video and the posts on SI. The case Tom made for using Value Line for selection has me convinced.
whitelake
Hey Larry, I am sure you have probably seen this from StockCharts on ZZ. http://stockcharts.com/education/What/IndicatorAnalysis/indic_ZigZag.html
whitelake
Hi et, I have four brokerage and two First USA Visa cards on One Step Update. It help me catch the fact that somebody had my wife's Visa number. If we would have had to wait for the statement the crook might have made more than that one hit.
whitelake
Anybody interested in Program Trading and the effect it has on the market might find this site interesting. http://www.programtrading.com/buysell.htm I found it when reading a CBS Warketwatch article on the prospects for the market at the opening. It gave HL Camp& Company as their source of where the futures were pointing and Fair Value. Camp is aiming at Day Traders for sure but they have a lot of information on Program Trading which is used by the big players in the market. This probably doesn't relate to AIM, and falls into the "general education" category for the market.
whitelake
Hey LH, I gather that the image or chart has to come form a web page and not just a file on my computer.
John
Lou, I found a Test board with some instructions. Thanks to Keith I finally made it work http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=279014
whitelake