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Hi Tom.
Hi Tom.
Toof: FYI
You AIM SLW right?
I get these newsletter emails all the time and thought this one might be of interest to you.
https://order.investorplace.com/?sid=QN8478&en=4614744
It recommends dumping SLW at this time.
Along with 49 others on the list.
Again, just FYI.
So Rien;
RE: BitCoin
Are you able to convert them into real $$ like a stock or fund?
Long time no see indeed Rien!
Actually, your last post hereabouts (or anywhere on IHub) was over 9 years ago, in June, 2004.
AIMing Bitcoins? Really? Not me. Don't understand it and won't invest in anything I don't reasonably understand.
Regardless, it's good to have the third leg of our 'Holland Contingent' back.
Lot's of changes hereabouts over the last 9 years, but I'm still executing Low Down AIM to some degree of success.
I'm also a Granddad for the first time to this 6 month old little cutie...
Keep in touch!
Thanks Ken. It was a busy month!
I did just notice a small correction needed.
My Cash Reserve is 32%, not 38%.
Don't know why I typed 38%. The 32% was staring me in the face from my table!
Maybe wishful thinking.
Re: October Results for GIEW
Well we didn't beat the market in October but still had a respectable month with lots of activity, nice gains and reasonable discounts.
Even still, we did end at record high total value with a fairly high 38% of that being cash.
In addition we're still quite a way ahead of the pack so far this year and over the last 12 months. AIM has a tendency to do that over the long haul.
Here's the grid showing all of the metrics
Hi Tom.
Hi Tom.
I hear ya <smile>.
Traditions are important.
Every time our grandson Collin is over to our house and just before they leave, I sit him on my lap and we go to YouTube and watch what I think is the greatest lullabye for a little boy.
It is "Godspeed, Sweet Dreams"
I prefer the version by the Cactus Cuties:
Re: "When Fools Rush In"
Ackk! Now I have an earworm!
Ricky Nelson no less!
Hi Tom:
I know.
'The Greedy' don't show up at the loading dock very often, so when they do, I 'AIM' to satisfy their every desire. And they are even offering at least my asking price; sometimes more!
When I string together a bunch of consecutive Sells in a short timespan, I always second guess my settings.
But I never change them.
A 'bird in the hand' and all that.
Correction:
Happened to get a Sell on JAKK in the premarket this morning.
Sold 14% of Actual, 11% of the Program for a 26% LIFO Gain.
So; 4 Buys and 5 Sells this month so far.
Wow Tom.
Is that 23 Sells just this week?
GIEW has also been busy, but not that busy!
For October so far I've had 4 Sells and 4 Buys.
We're +3% Month to Date with record cash $ @30%
Tom:
One Word:
WOW!
Whoa!
Thanks Clive.
Looks like we've returned to our normal format.
Don't have the time to go through that Q&A section, but the change certainly got a reaction!
Glad to see the return though.
Yup! neko.
Wasn't like that earlier today when I posted my reply to K.
Not like that as I write this either.
Let's see when I 'Submit Post'.
Yup! Still like that.
May need to take a look at IHub's board.
Congrats K
Good to see.
Both machines were started as NoDown AIMs, then they became LowDown AIMs and now they nearly sold off completely.
Wow! Way to go!
OK Alton.
Please keep us in the loop on all of this.
Still not convinced of the 'magic' of Fibonacci sequences, but as you say, the most important thing is having some process where you feel comfortable and less wont to make emotional decisions.
For me, that comfort level is not making sequential Buys for less than a 15% discount from the last transaction. Sells require a minimum of 25% LIFO and no less than 15% higher than the last Sell if selling is sequential.
Hi Ken.
Hi again Toof.
Seems reasonable Alton.
65/35 would be exactly at the mid-point of 50/50 and 80/20.
Did Lichello's 3rd edition recommend that?
I never bought anything past the first book, but seem to recall that he moved in that direction ending at 80/20 with his 4th edition.
Thanks Tom!
All good points (as usual).
Hi Tom.
Precious Metals is probably the closest to its own "next buy" currently.
It was as of Tuesday for SLV.
Now SLV is +4 or 5% from that buy price.
I've had some GTC troll lines out there for a few weeks on a few of my programs, but bottomfishing doesn't seem to be the best approach right now. More likely to trip a Sell or 2.
GIEW's + 1% on the day!
I'm amazed at the market's resiliency given all the mudslinging in DC.
So I should probably be a little worried.
Are we pretty 'toppy' right now?
Hiya Toof!
Hi Clive.
Great observations.
Thanks Alton.
Doug.
Yes, I used the next day open price for any buy/sell orders
Thanks.
I was surprised that the variance in overall return between daily, weekly and monthly was so small. My experience seems to be quite different.
I wonder if it would follow the same way for an individual equity vs an ETF.
Might you try the following just for fun...
SNDK, MU, YHOO
The same 12/22/98 - 7/31/13 timeframe would be fine I think.
Although I didn't start any of them until much later.
Keep in mind there are splits involved with these
Alton:
Wanted to mention that on Tuesday, I was able to pick up more SLV at $20.00, 15 cents lower than my 'Next Buy Price'.
Added 29% to Actual shares, 10% to the program.
6% discount from my last transaction; a Buy.
Trading today near $21.00, +5% from that Buy 2 days ago.
Must have been 'The Shutdown' that triggered the swoon on Tuesday.
Hi Doug.
Very interesting analysis!
And presented quite well too!
I do have one question regarding how the back test executed trades.
What price was used for each trade?
Were the Buys and Sells done at the opening price the next market day (IE: 1st market day of the month, week, next day if monthly, weekly, daily review respectively)?
Thanks
Thanks Ken.
How'd the month turn out for you?
I know you were mostly cash, but did you put any at risk last month?
I agree Adam.
At first I thought it was 'spam' as happens out here from time to time.
Look at the other posts this person has put out there.
If he doesn't respond with some type of reasonable explanation, I can delete it.
Hi Adam.
Levi Strauss, who found he could make more money selling pants to miners than mining for gold
We actually have a few folks in our AIM community who have leveraged similarly (albeit not to the extent that Mr. Strauss did)...
Bob Norman with Newport
Mark Hing with Automatic Investor
Bill McKinley & Doug Newberry with Investing Systems which they have grown into a huge business, well beyond AIM (PCA for them).
Conrad Winkelman with Vortex.
Undertrader's Stock Advisor By SBP Software Solutions, Inc.
And of course all due to Robert Lichello writing his AIM book and (for me) hosting his infomercial about AIM way back when.
Preliminary September Results
Well GIEW would have ended slightly higher if not for today's selloff, but still a resepctable showing for the month!
8 Sells; 7 Buys
Value Metrics:
- Month to Month = +6.1%
- Year to Date = +33.5%
- Rolling 12 months = +42.9%
- From Start = +112.5%
- From Low = +410.2%
- From High = 0% (Record high Total $ Value.)
- Cash Reserve = 30% (Record high Total $ Cash.)
RE: Fibonacci $
Hi Adam.
Is that money made selling the Fibonacci number methods or from using the Fibonaccis?
From selling the methods.
Hi Toof and thanks.
Grab that money where you can!
That's what I think too.
Hi K
Yeah, 'friendly'. a good way to put it.
See my reply to Alton.
If you Google the term 'fibonacci investing', you will get thousands of links.
There's a whole lot of Money being made selling variations of this approach in the TA world.
I was surprised to see the folks at The Elliot Wave touting it too. For some reason I had thought they were on the up & up.
No matter though. I didn't spend much time going deeper than that becasue it all seems like so much 'Snake Oil' to me.
The logic has to sit up straight in my head before I commit $ to anything.
Hi Alton.
Back in 2007 I ran out of cash on the way down.
I certainly know what that's like!
Really, one could use any percentage point desired for purchases on the way down. I just picked Fibonacci cause I'm not smart enough to determine anything better:)
It looks like K uses increments of 5 to help determine transaction points. It's a personal thing!!!
Thanks for the response and I agree it is a personal thing.
One needs to react/adjust to previous results and circumstances so as to remain comfortable with their system.
That is how/why I decided to go with LD-AIM! All a response to the 2002 debacle that was GIEW at the time. Old story, oft repeated out here, but a good example nonetheless.
Too often, people with 'their system' experience failure and give up. Many of those folks out there. Some of whom were present here and have since dropped out.
Then there are folks like us. Stubborn to the end!
Alton & K:
I'm not the math wizard you two guys are, so I'm not sure how to relate fibonacci series with investment systems.
I do know that each succeeding # in the series is the sum of the 2 preceding it. But how they optimize or otherwise create a comfort level within an AIM-like system, I'm not sure.
I am interested in your approach however.
Can either of you enlighten the rest of us on why you decided to use them and then how they are used within your 'systems'?
Thanks!
Gotta love those GTC Sell orders.
Mine for BX tripped at 25.60 just before the afternoon market slide.
BX closed at 24.95, almost 3% lower.
Bird in the Hand...