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invest29@ The SP actually dropped some 35% at the time from around $ 22 to $ 14.
But the main reason for that - was that FDA - the very same day came out and postponed the adcom meeting from august to 14. november 2019 (14 months after release of R-I study september 2018).
And surely the extension of stockpile with some 40 million new shares did not help the Share Price at the time.
Jasbg
Question to Law People: Does any one have any possible timeline for the News Filing against Hikma ?
This has to be later than the Appeal - and as pointed out yesterday by Eight - think it was - if Appeal Win - filing is irrelevant (dropped).
To a lay-person this Is Confusing. There's got to be some Legal/or negotiation tactics to this.
ggw mentioned yesterday - JL and BB who has pointed to 'rest of patents' that would be violated by Hikma selling generic Vascepa (the overlapping patents in filing).
My brain is to small to understand all the legal stuff. Hope that some of the sharp Legal minds will get to some sort of understandable 'joint explanation' to what this all actually means - going forward for Amarin :)
Jasbg
sts@ Just to tease electric car fans a bit - have you seen this video :)
marjac@ Thanks again.
What you are saying IS' - You would not 'go near this judge again' under any legal circumstances.
And mentally I understand 100% where you are coming from - I'm sure most here does.
Jasbg
marjac@ Ok - thanks for explaining.
But dont you still think Singer would be consulted (even not on the specific case)
Company is not that big - there has to be some sort 'coordinated' Legal Strategy before filing a new case ?
Or am I in the wilderness here.
Jasbg
marjac@ Your Shock and Rage is felt all the way to Europe.
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Not being into Law (lay person) - there has to be some sort of rational explanation here.
With Singer now on the team - surely he must have accepted the new patent infringement suit - and that it was filled in Nevada - with Judge Du on the case ?
There has to be some sort of sense to this - otherwise this company is going down 'blindfolded'.
Jasbg
postes@ Fair enough - Thanks :)
zman@ What your saying makes a lot of sense. Hopefully it's not to late for Amarin to get into Gear.
Appeal is right now controlling SP - but that shouldn't block JT and Amarin from going after some of the deals you mention - trying to improve overall situation moving forward.
Jasbg
Tal10@ Put like that - is sure sounds as 'rules to steer by' - both in business and life general :)
As a lot of others 'I'm in to deep here (in money) - not to care'.
So even you and other critics of JT's and Amarins management - no one can change the past - so even mistakes have been made - It's the future that matters in the end.
Going back in my own business career - i would have been a multi millioner only having changed a couple of 'big faults' - along the way.
The latest actually here on iHub AMRN (mentioned a couple of times lately in posts).
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I would have made millions (in dollars) had I followed Leland Gershells advice (sold at 24$ - bought back at 4$ after Du's ruling).
And this 'Big Chance' - stared 'All of Us' in the Face just a few months ago - but did anyone take it I wonder.
Sometimes (very often) we all act 'like sheep' - doing what every one else does :)
Jasbg
james murp@ What are you actually saying here ?
Please explain what you think these 'rumors' mean :)
Jasbg
zman@ I'm living on the 'other side' in (CO2 obsessed - liberal Europe) - and have only followed Amarin since fall 2018 - so I'm really not qualified to value JT and the BOD at Amarin.
But I do understand what you are saying - and know your not alone in this view on' - where things are going with Amarin.
I - as everyone else here - hope for win in appeal - so Amarin FINALLY can get Rolling.
Jasbg
inv92@ Everything that can DELAY Amarin in 'hitting the market for REAL' - is pulled to the last day possible (or so it sure seems).
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September 2018 - big day of R-I release (close to 2 years ago) - everyone thought - Now we are there 'AT Last' (8 years after Vascepa 'first Approved' for high TG)
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What happens for the next 6 months: NOTHING. No one could find out if FDA would require an Adcom or not - for the new Label of Amarin. Then at long last: Adcom in August 2019.
We Waited !
Days before Adcom announced - the meting were postponed to November 2019.
We Waited !
AQdcom 16 to 0 was a victory - but what not many understood at the time - was' - that the delay of Adcom - and later final FDA approval in december ment that result og R-I approval - still not on the label of Vascepa to this day.
JT now talking about 'Patent Trial' on CNBC.
We Waited !
The chock ruling Marts 30 2020. Likely another 8 - 10 months delay' to know where Amarin and Vascepa is going.
Back to Waiting !
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Difficult not to feel that FDA (and BP) is 'paying back' for earlier Amarin trial against FDA - by simply 'eating most of' Amarins 20 years of Patent protection.
Impossible to prove that Adcom delay - was not by accident - and that Patent trial by 2 big Generics was from the start 'just ment as further delaying Amarin' (as many have pointed out - Hikma and Reddy newer expected to win).
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So what are AMRN retailers doing now: SURPRISE:
They are Waiting !
Jasbg
So spelling has nothing to do with IQ. A few minutes ago you called them Stupid !
It is as simple as that' - still the board took quite a journey on that remark :)
Does indicate that things are moving 'to slow' around here !
Jasbg
PS. And on second thoughts 'a BO or Settlement' would not be 'leaked' in this cryptic way.
JL@ Your +100% right . best song ever written.
For more than 10 years I heard this song more than ones every day in the car working as an IT Ingenier on the road.
I do prefer Mark and his guitar. Brothers in Arms is music from God:
Here live from Berlin 2007:
ggw@ Looking a bit closer - I'm not qualified to participate in this - even being from abroad :) ATB
ggw@ Will look at this later - it's night where I live :)
Jasbg
Durk 47@ You undermine your input by 'Fish Oil Nation' - what kind of 'hidden hatred' is that ?
Remember life before Corona - here from a Hot Night in Munich Germany years ago:
cadddad@ There is music' and there is music' you remember :)
ILT@ Very strong post.
And I sure do hope 'that reality in appeal' will reflect the logic 'as clear' as you present it here :)
Jasbg
Rose@ There are actually many things on Youtube - and some of them are very pro productions - but I believe not very many see them:
An idea might be for a board like this iHub AMRN - to make a program for 'rolling out' the best of these videos on social media in a broader sence:
This is a fine introduction with Bhatt as well (a side from the fact 'Fish Oil' is mentioned):
Searching for the New Vascepa Add - I came across this on Youtube:
If link here before - no harm done. But it is actually a very firm presentation of what tis drug can do for people with CDV risk.
George20@ Disclaimer said something like 'watch out for swing doors' - right :)
BB@ Does anyone have a link to the add (migth be in here somewhere - but I did not see it yet):
Living on the 'other side' dont have US TV channels :)
sts66@ You might be right. I also remember he had one of the competitors in EPA trials (A-something) at $7 before the trials on this were stopped.
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But take $7 (average at the time was $51) - he surely demonstrated that he 'did not believe' (like the rest of us did) that SP would go up. And as I said - every one into AMRN hated him for it. To put it another way - he was not trying to be glorified - at the time.
Fact remains - had you followed his advice (sold at $23- 24 - and bought back after Du's ruling at $4 - you would be a hell of a lot 'better of today'.
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I would have liked to 'share him' in doing nothing but getting Lucky - which in the end - is what being in the stock market is very much about - Yes :)
All the best
Jasbg
PS: I did not say that he knew what the ruling would be. Just said that Gershell would likely have calculated in the possible loss in patent case. Noting to do with conspiration !
postes@ LOL to your characteristics and pictures here :)
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And again - you are probarbly right 'in hindsight' that the succes-story could have been sold Much Better.
In Denmark we have something called 'Jante Loven' (wonder if you ever heard about that):
Hope you can translate via google - you will be amused for sure :)
'Jante Loven' rules Scandinavian (and big parts of Euro-area) mentality - and it is about as far away form US mentality you could get:
https://da.wikipedia.org/wiki/Janteloven
Main points of 'Jante Loven'
postes@ I cant say i disagree with you.
I was from the start in AMRN a fan of JT. I personally like his style - talking facts more than Boosting Hot Air.
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The patent loss was 'A chock to Amarin' - and they are still struggling how to handle it.
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In the end it most likely comes down to winning the Appeal - or not - what the future will bring.
But of course you can newer 100% rule out - that one of the really big 'Big Pharmas' decides to make a Buy Out offer that JT and BOD will accept. There is always hope :)
Jasbg
Bill B@ Maybe Raf should make a Vote:
Wait for Appeal - or - $30 BO :)
That would be interesting !
Jasbg
raf@ The answers reflects the deep disappointment stil present in many AMRN retailers.
My hopeful guess would be 'that it is positive' being announced this way !
Could be 'BIG' (explaining the radio silence from Amarin) !
BB@ I would take 'a lot less than 200$' - 50 and I'd be happy :)
couldbb@ Thanks for you input here. I think I should have had you on as co-writer - we could have made a bestseller out of this story.
There truly is so many angles to this - where I followed only the Gershell lead.
Given the amounts of debates on iHub AMRN i do find it weird - that you never ever hear from the Money People. It does indicate 'that the policies in these places' - dont enjoy the light from publicity.
Jasbg
NB. On purpose I did not go into 'possible leak' in the Judge Du process - but surely this is a possibility.
Have some thoughts I want to share with this board about why AMRN SP is locked' under $ 7.
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I have to stress that this is pure speculation - but still 'trying to learn to shape this experience' - I need logic to have some kind of idea of what's going on.
First, why this can only be speculation. One thing I've noticed here on iHub (and other boards for that matter).
Almost all groups of professionals - be they doctors - lawyers - all kinds of biorelate jobs - openly try to hand out to others the 'pro look' in cases.
Only one group of people is completely absent (and I mean 100% absent) is 'Big Money' that controls the Stock Price market setting.
You have never seen (or heard) a GS broker - come out and brag about the millions / billions they earn daily - Ditto people from Oppenheimer - Citi - Hedgefunds. Seems that there is a 'secret code' in these places - that you don't speak 'at all' outside the company walls.
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Above as an intro - and I just now need the screen shot I brought here a number of times - from the day after the Du decision. At the time, this curve - locked to $ 4 - looked suspicious. But think I've figured out how to connect the dots in this game.
And what actually triggered me from these speculations is - that ever since the FDA approval in December 2019 - one thing has haunted me:
How could this Leland Gershell guy from Oppenheimer predict the future development of AMRN - so completely accurate?
His take at the time was $ 7 - and sell. Every retailer in AMRN (absolutely including me) hated this man back then - and he was named "every bad character" in the book - for "not understanding" - that Amarin and Vascepa - were on the way to the Stars.
To put it simply - had I taken this man's advice seriously - I could have sold $ 23 (which LG recommended right from the start - against any other analyst out there) - and I could have bought back at $ 4.
Had I followed Leland Gershell's advice, I would have been insanely much better off today (no matter what happens from now on). And, personally, I want to give this guy an official apology - 'should have taken his advice seriously' - instead of just letting emotions rule.
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The question of Gershell is facts. We all followed what happened to AMRN - he was spot on from the start.
Now the key question is - how could LG know 'the road of AMRN's downfall in advance - and here we come to the speculative guess on my part.
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Going back to the figure above from Yahoo on March 31, 2020 - I think I have a qualified guess - why it seemed pre-planned to buy the falling stock with a floor of $ 4 (113 million shares the first day after the verdict):
The overall explanation for what is happening is' the persistently large number of trials running all the time - generics trying to move early (e.g. killing patents) as in the case against AMRN.
The explanation of why 'the market just sat there' Ready with a smile '- exploiting the panic among retailers - is quite simple. THEY DO THIS ALL THE TIME - so every time a decision in patents (or other disputes in matters concerning the market) - they have a plan to buy up 'Shares at a steel price' - In case the stock falls like a stone as ANRN surely did.
Back to Gershell '- I would imagine that e.g. the 3 big money tanks - GS - Oppenhimer - City have a shared group of experts who are closely watching these ever rolling lawsuits. Sharks 'ready to' produce billons in a few days - as they certainly did with AMRN.
Probarbly this group - will have close ties to BP - who "suggest" - what price they would like AMRN 'not to go over' before Appeal.
Leland Gershell must have known about this game - noted the political winds - and then taken the approach that Amarin could just as well lose the patent lawsuit. And see what happened SP locked in at $ 7.
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Emphasizing again - part about how big money - is organized and handling stock buybacks is speculation. The hope is that it can provoke someone with insight to explain some facts - in this billion dollar big money game.
Jasbg
raf@ Would be a rich man have i bought 'oranges' - instead I 'until now' have had my biggest loss EVER on this haunted company.
Will it ever turn I wonder :)
Handman@ Agree completely.
This is so unfair - and is actually 'aloud steel of of intellectual property'- inside USA - exactly what China 'rightly' is accused of doing every where possible.
Learning all the time here. And a major thing is' - that I had no idea the size of these generic company's.
And next thing you learn - these companies 'are build' around these legal cases - fighting Brand names who paid for research and development of the drugs.
Truth 2020 are - we are talking about 'blod hounds' in the Bio Business that are 'Very - Very succesful - in what they do'.
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Look at the Size of Hikma and Reddy (eg. number of employees) these are big companies - we are up against (data from 2018):
JL@ Agree completely :)
sts@ So stil possible to save old covid-19 patients with conditions - giving HCQ - zink - antibiotic - Early as possible - Of Label. Hope doctors in US and Brazil stil 'does that' - saving lives.
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Remdesivir won't save anyone'- just move recovery a few days for those who would not die anyway.
I 100% agree with the article here:
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/493732-big-pharma-pandemic-covid
Jasbg
OT: This might explain the rise in infections with covid-19:
https://www.hospimedica.com/covid-19/articles/294783255/mutated-coronavirus-in-us-and-europe-10-times-more-contagious-than-original-strain.html
https://www.propublica.org/article/a-spike-in-people-dying-at-home-suggests-coronavirus-deaths-in-houston-may-be-higher-than-reported
My personal guess is' - that had these patients been given the 'HCQ - zink - Z-pack' combination EARLY - most would survive - but that (very cheap) treatment is now banned by FDA in US.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/87066