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I have traded NTWK once or twice in the past and am now in buying mode again. Company is worth far more than current market cap.
RFP is a tremendous buy at this level. On its own merits it is worth about $12 right now. The sum of the parts is worth over $22. They have made smart moves with respect to moving into tissue and how they are going about it. Their newsprint $40/ton price increase has stuck and is not baked in to current estimates. Chart is looking strong as well. It is a top 5 holding for me.
Wow, what an ill-informed post from SirFelix. To me it sounds as if Sir's expectations or knowledge are out of tune with the real world.
I say this because VirTra's 10 year plus track record of profitable revenue growth while maintaining a stellar balance sheet is fantastic and is exactly opposite of what SirFelix describes. I defy anyone to find another company of any size in any sector that has that sort of decadeplus track record. Very few examples exist.
Look at companies like Taser, Stratasys, Concur Tech, and you will see that their stock prices literally exploded upward when revenues crossed above the $20mil range. VirTra will cross above $20mil in 2017 at the latest! Patience, VTSI will catch up and pass VirTra.
Bill, The new contract win was posted publicly after the close of the markets on Thursday, April 7th. With respect to pink sheet or OTC or Nasdaq or AMEX or Dow or whatever. It makes very little difference to many of us. When I enter an order to buy or sell I do it the same way whether it is VTSI or PEP or 3M. And not only that, the trade executes the same way since all exchanges trade using the same computerized exchanges.
Of course there are some funds and fund families and institutions that have their own internal rules about what they can buy and sell and certainly some (many?) cannot trade stocks that are not listed on a Nasdaq or DOW.
Until there is a PR or until it is discussed in a quarterly earnings PR or at an investor conference it is not real to the vast majority of the investing public. Anyone posting on IHUB or Yahoo Finance or any other online forum is not part of the mainstream investing community where the majority of investable dollars reside.
With VirTra, Insiders cannot buy or sell from the end of the quarter until 2 business days after the quarterly results are made public.
And there is tremendous value here with RFP. Big newsprint price increase has held, $40/ton. Analyst numbers moving up. Future is bright.
Fair enough...and I agree with you. Maybe the reason the article rubbed me the wrong way was there was no effort to point out how fundamentally sound VirTra really is and how they have such a great track record of profitable growth. And how so many macro factors are in their favor right now and trending in ways that will continue to benefit VirTra more and more.
Switching focus, today is interesting. Once those 200k shares got cleared out at .15 the ask is now .1599 so maybe the flipper/motivated seller is now gone. Of course, bidders aren't ramping up their limit prices quite yet. Though they should.
Anyone subscribing to the outfit that published that "article/analysis" should immediately cancel and the author should chop his fingers off.
VTSI should be purchased for the long term, not the short term. It is the absolute wrong type of stock for the short term. Volume is too small and unpredictable. Total market cap is too small. The stock may or may not react to news. An absolutely terrible article.
Everything about the company and even the stock over the last 5+ years screams longterm value, competency, profitable growth. The stock is too cheap based on fundamentals and it is crazy cheap based on 2016 numbers that will be forthcoming.
That sort of article just really drives me crazy because it is such a poor surface analysis with no research behind it. Yes, I like that he says the stock will double in a month but the reason why is insane. But like the old saying....no such thing as bad publicity. I guess if he had said, "buy now for the short term pop but keep a bunch long term for the multi-year ride that is coming" then I wouldn't have much of a problem. Tally ho!
I just added another 50k shares. The silly seller is the guy who had 185k at the ask yesterday at .155 then he lowered it to .153 late day and then to .145 today. Why doesn't he simply wait a few days until he sees a decent sized bid and then hit it? On a thinly traded stock, who can be so stupid as to chase bids lower? But I thank him for my shares.
Well billpr, I give you an 'A' for honesty and kudos for getting so old. Not many men make it that long. I have been retired for the better part of a decade and haven't yet exited my 40s. All I do is buy individual stocks, VTSI is typical.
You are just too impatient and bought VirTra way too early and got burned by the dilution of the past Duchess financing that ended several years ago.
But through it all, VirTra continues to grow profitably and over the last 3 years have made the transition from maybe overvalued to severely undervalued. Their growth and profitability are clearly accelerating. You would do better to direct your whining toward Mr. Ferris, he will listen to you. In fact, if you stop in he will likely even meet with you.
Over the years I have made several thousand trades with well over 100 different companies/stocks and I will tell you that VirTra is well run, is producing extraordinary results, and VTSI is at a price and time when it should be bought.
Forget about all your past stuff, simply look forward as that is all that matters.
Yes there are people that stupid. But with VTSI, it is almost impossible to short. Very few brokerages will let you short a pink sheet penny stock, almost impossible.
But today's trading does prove that stupid people exist and are their own worse enemy. Someone just sold a few shares at .145 (kudos to the buyer!) and someone else has 185,000 for sale at .153. Some people deserve to stay poor forever.
Sure, any stock can go anywhere. All it depends on is the seller and buyer. That said, I like how VTSI has gotten to this point, the earlier run to 18 cents, some pullback/consolidation forming a higher foundation, now a nice steady move to 15.5 cents. There haven't been any gaps up or gaps down. Seems to me that anyone holding from 18 cents down to 11cents would never ever sell now at this level when every indication is the company is hitting on all cylinders and the stock is starting to catch up.
With VTSI, it certainly can jump around simply because volume is so low and there are not always sellers and buyers waiting or bidding/asking. For example, if I wanted to dump all my shares right now within the next hour, I guarantee the stock drops a ton. Likewise, if I wanted to double my share count today, the stock skyrockets. That is why it important to take a bit of care with buying and selling VTSI or any other micro-cap thinly traded stock. Buy shares when they are sitting there to be stolen. Use limits when you buy/sell.
3 years ago, 5 years ago, 10 years ago, etc. it was easy to make a case for the stock being overvalued. Today, it is not possible to make a valid case for being overvalued and is easy to make a strong case for being undervalued. Think about where annual revenue and earnings are likely to be this year 2016, next year 2017, and then in 2018. Pretty easy to see 18mil/25mil/30mil and EPS of 1.5cents/2.5cents/3cents. Also brutally easy to justify a PS of 2.5 and/or PE of 20 and/or EV/EBITDA of 12.....those sorts of numbers get VTSI to 60 cents very conservatively. Then throw in the many things that can happen to drive these numbers far higher such as Mod Round being a success, a share buyback to take down the count a bit, new orders, buyout by bigger fish, etc. Only a fool sells VTSI at this current valuation.
1st phase seems to be 45 systems....which would seem to be $10 - $15million. Hopefully more phases follow. Not sure of delivery timeframes or pace.
I think you may have taken something the wrong way. I consider everyone on this ihub forum to be among the "informed" including obviously you.
You are correct in that I only recently joined IHUB.
I bought my first VTSI shares in 2009 at 10 cents and have added more many times since then and have never sold even a single share. I own more than 1% of the company and less than 5%. I bought about 100k shares today.
Your use of the word unbelievable is very true. It is an unbelievably good opportunity to those who are informed.
The stock has not moved much because this still isn't real to the investing public. All the info says on the FedBiz website is the contract is worth $3,000 MIN and $40,000,000 MAX and there hasn't been any formal PR from the company yet. So, the important details (dollar value and timeframe) are still unknown in the eyes of the uninformed (and to some extent the informed) public.
Friday volume plus today is still way less than 2% of outstanding shares. I view it as the smart people stealing shares from the ill-informed and impatient. So take advantage.
EMMS is worth far more than current enterprise value. EV/EBITDA is now about 6 or 7. NextRadio is on the radar and will ramp up later this year. Bright times ahead.
Exactly right. There is a delay because the company finds out about the win at the same time the rest of us do....by checking the gov website.
Once they know they have, someone needs to draft the PR. Then it needs to be blessed by the execs (and maybe the gov) and finally released. Easy to see how it could take up to a week.
Gives us little guy investors a rare advantage.
It is on the FedBizOpps website and was posted after the close on April 7th. Just run a google query and you will find it.
Even without this contract, 15cents is a joke of a stock price and we all need to take advantage. With this contract, all risk has been removed from the stock in my opinion.
The day VirTra issues a PR on this, the stock will take a big step up.
I put the current value of the company at about $80million not including net cash, this puts my valuation at about 53 cents.
It is going to be difficult to withstrain oneself from buying every share available tomorrow. Or maybe it would be more accurate to say it would be stupid not to buy every share available tomorrow. This thing is going to go up and up and up.
Stock is about 1/3rd the price of what it should be. And it will get there.
No one even heard about this yet. I suspect VirTra issues a PR on Monday or Tuesday morning. In hindsight, sort of nice that the stock got rid of a few weak hands right after earnings.
They do not spend much of anything on IR/PR. Sure, when they had the contract with Miller they had to pay him some money but he did do more than just straight IR.
The current outfit they deal with is more of an ala carte thing, I doubt if VirTra spends even $25,000 per year with them.
And anyway, as a shareholder I really do want them to crank up the IR efforts and make some targeted presentations at investor conferences and that sort of thing.
It is stupid that a 40 cent company trades for 13 or 14 cents.
Today looks to me like someone simply wanted to buy a few shares. Smart since it is still on sale for peanuts.
It would pass with flying colors at 1 for 20 as long as they laid it out for everyone in an easy to understand way.
They would need to do it along with a promise to uplist the stock to one of the Nasdaq categories.
They would need to point out the benefits TO THE BUSINESS of having a $2.50 stock price (rather than $0.125). Simply opens more doors and keeps doors open.
They would need to point out the benefits to the stock holders. Likely a far better valuation will result. Funds can buy, institutions can buy. When EPS goes from 20 cents/share to 30 cents/share it will be noticed and embraced. Today when it will go from 1 cent/share in 2015 to 1.5 cent/share in 2016 it is viewed as irrelevant and simply noise or a random move.
I also think they should package this with a small limited buyback/retirement of shares ....dedicate maybe $100k per quarter to doing so.
So many reasons to do it. There are just fantastic business and shareholder reasons to do it...so they should.
They have a long track record of profitable growth, well over a decade. Given the macro environment, no reason to think they will not continue to grow. Many reasons to believe it is accelerating.
The big contract was not this year (2016), was not last year (2015), but was in late 2014. I don't even think all of it has shipped until just a week ago as I think the last went out in Q12016.
Also, I would guess that as soon as they got that big contract, they were less aggressive in quoting some other jobs. Ferris does a good job managing to ensure consistent profitable controlled growth.
VTSI at 11.x cents is a steal. Look at the 5 year chart, crystal clear what is coming.
For the most part, people on this ihub board and investors in general are missing the picture with VTSI and it is a costly opportunity to miss.
Look how far the company has come and how it continues to profitably grow. It has gone from overvalued based on trailing performance to undervalued based on trailing performance. It has done so by relentless consistent profitable growth over the last decade.
Trailing PE is 12. PE for this current FY is likely less than 6!
Company is growing at easy/steady 20%/year.
Trailing PS is about 1.35. Current year PS is about 1.
Enterprise value is likely less than this year's revenue.
No debt. $3.3mil or over 2 cents per share in cash.
Too many on these ihub boards are silly short term flippers and by doing so they miss out on all the big gains. Sad.
Think about it, company has 158million outstanding shares. About 1 million or $100k worth traded yesterday. Insignificant and meaningless.....which makes me happy since I was able to buy some of them.
I'll check back in a couple years...or maybe hours.
You know as well as I do that annualizing results from any one quarter for any one company is stupid.
Stock is down because some short term flippers didn't see it go up so they lose patience and sell. When there are few buyers it goes down. VTSI is thinly traded.
If you are waiting for a boom then you should sell because that will never happen with VTSI or most any other stock.
I buy stocks based on what I perceive as value. PS, EV/EBITDA, PE, Bal sheet, Growth, Profitability, consistency, blah blah blah. Another I love is NAII.
Even today, far less than 1% of VTSI shares have traded. That is about nothing and is meaningless. I take it as an opportunity to add shares from the impatient.
Bobwins, The opinion you just expressed was moronic and ill-informed and likely intentionally misleading.
Company is growing steadily (and has for many consecutive years)both revenue and earnings at about 20%/year. Trailing EPS is 1 cent. No debt and strong cash generation.
Current year PS is about 1. Trailing PE is 12. Current year PE is about 6 based on EPS of 2cents this year.
Worse case, VTSI should be trading at 2X current price. It is worth 3 - 4X current price if Taser or a competitor decides to harvest it.
This sure makes it easy to hold the stock. Super good numbers all around. Over the $10mil hurdle and looks like $20mil will fall in 2017. Trailing EPS is now 1 cent! 2016 EPS likely to be 2 cents. 2016 PS likely slightly above 1 and company deserves PE of 20.
In my opinion, if Ferris wanted to sell this thing for $70million he could do it tomorrow. That would be 44cents per share.
I added 60k shares this am.
Earnings tomorrow AM! Only 1 more day to wait.....then only 7 weeks to May 15 and the Q1 report.
4 significant job openings on the VirTra website = Growth!
Right now my belief is that the company could not be purchased for less than 40 cents per share.
It is rather impressive how VTSI has grown into it's market cap and made the crossover from overvalued to undervalued through the relentless profitable revenue growth.
2014 revenue was about $9.9mil. My guess for 2015 revenue is about $13.5mil and I am expecting $18mil for this year, 2016.
At a share price of 13cents and 158mil shares, market cap is $20.5mil and enterprise value is likely about $18mil since they have excess cash. So 3 or 4 years ago when the stock was close to this level the PS was 3+ and now for this current year it is about 1. So we made the flip from a little overvalued to way undervalued!
At some point the market will take notice and we will again be valued at a PS of 3 or 4 because that is what this company deserves and even that is still a low valuation compared to TASR....and VTSI is better in every category. I also think when revenue crosses above $20mil next year it will get far more attention.
Good post joelawyer. I agree with your observations. Very few companies have this sort of consistent profitable growth. The world's and US macro environment is also strongly helpful to VirTra's efforts and that isn't going to change. Q4 will be announced next week and Q1 in mid-May. I think 13 cents will be a distant memory by late May and we will all wonder why we didn't buy more.