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Covered my short in qqq earlier today at 68. Amazed I made money.
5 day trin signaling a short term buy signal, my gut says we at least run back to recent high on either spx or qqq. After that, will know as it happens. But for now, this only looks like a pullback from an extremely overbought condition.
Been buying gld, as that is a pretty sure thing till the depression starts. Stocks are a big risk, even if they will run a lot higher possibly in the next couple months. Is like owning stocks in the summer of 2007, or the end of winter in 2000. You may make money, but if you are greedy, good luck paying your bills.
I have never voted for a gop canidate, even for dog catcher. Nothing more about what I think about politics.
Obama will win, and the market will love it, untill they realize the gop cares more about winning elections than about the economy, so they will block any attempt at helping the economy, assuring a nasty recession in 2013-2014.
Just my opinion, but am planning to not own any stocks by the end of the year. Even gold will not shine
Sorry, am busy with getting the house ready for winter, and the high maintenance GF (dont cry for me).
Still holding short, tried to short more qqq at 70.6, but missed by pennies again. I see at least a drop to spx 1450, and even 1420 is realistic target by early next week. Then who knows?
Bottom line: We have all the best news behind us for now, so a pullback on any negative news is likely. After that, "irrational exhuberance" will likely rule the markets into early next year, when "reality" (remember that, from historical times?) will take us into a nasty bear, maybe back to spx 900.
Last time we got the kind of options numbers we had friday, the market either dropped for a couple days, then rallied up to a new high, then sold off for months, or it just started selling off the next day.
Aapl has given as good a news as it can, so the market looks ahead, and how much better can it get? aapl is pennies from 700, then it will fall hard and fast.
Is time to short for the 5 to 7% correction that will start next week, or already has started. The fed will keep the drop from getting too big, but can not stop short term corrections.
I almost put in an order to cover my short in qqq at same price I got friday, 69.8,but will try and get out of the whole position with a small gain, if we fall below 69.7
Sometime is smart to close some of a position, if you have the guts to put more on if the trade goes against you more, otherwise what happens to me is eventually I wish I had kept the whole position, and close it when it finally makes sense to.
I got 2 solid sell signals friday, so expect at least a 2% correction this week, and could be more. Not enough euphoria to put in a major top yet, could keep going up (with at least a 5 to7% correction before november) into next year.
After 26 years of watching the stock market, this does not feel like a major top. Oh, we also got the silly new moon sell signal for friday, but it works when the trend is not too strong.
I will cover at spx 1440 for sure, as dont think we drop below that before one more run up to another new high. then I think we see the 5% correction, but is only a guess.
Am heavily short, and wish I had waited till next monday to short.
Past patterns suggest a top tuesday morning, then a 3 day decline, then another new high before the final top.
Option numbers suggest a short term top is coming soon, when is the question that makes or loses money.
I shorted at 69.6 and qqq 69.8. Double dumb. Will short more if we go up into tuesday morning, on tuesday morning.
Will try and not think about the massive losses i have so far in the trade all weekend!
Insanely, I bought gold yesterday, so far so good. Hedged it today, selling oct covered call at 170, hard to lose money that way, though limits upside/
Market closed below my short, will cover in morning on any dip. My gut says goes higher at first, then a small correction.
btw, in past, spx always drops about 2% from todays highs in the next couple trading days. But am still sure we go higher for another couple weeks.We are so overbought, on phony news
Oh, and I am pretty sure a terrible recession, with higher gas and food prices is coming soon. MY gf has stored a ton of food in my basement, and I keep buying enough for the next couple years of stuff that will not go bad, like my staples:chocolate, olive oil, canned tuna fish, etc. Store them in the fridge or in the basement. BEst investment I can make with my cash.
Have put all the data into my excel spreadsheets, and in the past, the final top did not come for weeks when we had a pattern like this.
However, look for a pullback tomorrow, not much, and then more upside next week. Shorting at the close makes sense today.
Just my opinion.
Dont fight the fed!
But even the fed can not prop up prices forever. At some point, we are overdue a correction of 5 to 8%, will not be more than that till after the end of the year.
Just my take.
Insane situation, where the normal cycle of capitalism, where the weak are weeded out in a recession, has been delayed, so when the inevitable does happen, will lead to a total breakdown in society.
As Puck says in "A midsummers night", "What fools these mortals be"
Keep shorting and making money, as covered the short from last week.
We are making a top, this big spike up on news is always a sure thing to short, but not today!
Appl is also topping, what more can they do to move the stock up?
Fed move will not work if the congress will not do real stimulus to the economy, but it will prop up stock prices for awhile, so dont expect a major decline till next year.
Lets hope i am wrong, and the fed move works, and the economy does well next year.
Dumb and dumber, shorted at qqq 69.6. Think we drift higher into next week, maybe qqq 70 will be the top, so will cover if we fall back later today, or will cover early tomorrow at a small gain.
bottom line: Market is forming a top, but will take a few more days to see the final high.
This shell game has been going on since Reagan let the banks go wild. This crises could be the one to finally end the game, but my gut says all that will happen is a nasty recession and then calm again. Watch out for the next bubble, when it breaks, then the financial system collapses.
You heard it first here.
This rally is now up 13% (average rally last 25 years without a correction of at least 5% is 12%), and is now 68 trading days long. IN past 25 years, less than 12 rallies lasted longer than that.
Just saying we are overdue for a correction, and sept is the cruelest month.
At first glance, looks like this rally might still have some legs.
However, my rule is in this kind of formation, to short with downside target the gap up yesterday, or spx 1419 (1422 will probably hold if this rally has legs)
Just my little scalp.
Sorry I dont post all my trades, but am short qqq by being long the qid. I covered the one from last week last week.
Been busy with my much younger GF. Do not fall in love with a beautiful younger woman, she takes up all my time. Poor me!
Anyway, am still short from yesterday, but am not sure about this short yet, so may cover.
However, isee put call numbers and cboe numbers say top is near, when is the magic question.
Almost pulled the trigger and shorted today, but am being patient. Pattern looks a lot like the last top in the spring, which means we start down soon.
fed is pumping and markets like that. Economy not in as bad a shape as some believe, and worse than we all would like, so slow and steady.
As in, not expecting a major decline, but a 7% correction would put enough fear into markets to set up the final leg of the bull into early next year, is my best guess, but that is a guess.
bottom line: Indicators still pointing up, but looking super toppy right now, and is time of year to start thinking of at least cutting back to have cash to invest at the next buy signal.
Looks like 1450 is doable if good news next couple days. will sell the farm and short if that happens.
Watching and waiting, had order to buy qid but did not get filled by pennies, so what else is new?
My gut says short now, system says to wait a bit longer. Looks like new high, then short. Next big up day that we get super high tick numbers, will short. Of course, that means the short is today, and no more big up days.
bottom lineL IN the past when I shorted on days like this, the market then went up a few more days and i did not make much money. Will try something different, and wait for a clear short.
1988 - Bottom end of august, then top day of election, drop into end of the month.
1992- top in end of august, drop into early october, then up and away
1996 - Top in my, drop into mid july, then up and away.
2000 - Top end of august, drop into oct, then election was stolen and market did terrible into the end of Dec.
2004 - Market bottomed in early august and then up and away.
so no clear patterns, but we did top twice the end of august.
Have not been online much, but am thinking seriously of shorting heavily at qqq 68.8 up to 69.4 as possible top.
Time frame works, as is last week of august. Problem in predicting a top is always, and that is always, it looks like another more much higher is likely when we top.
Will post more when I get the numbers all sorted out.
one more thought: My system says down for a couple days, but not much, maybe spx 1400. But am not playing the counter trend for now.
It makes the most sense, but when does the market make any sense, for sideways down for a couple days, then one las 4 or 5 day rally to top out big time.
I plan to be short more of sept, if we dont have a big correction before that. Again, anything is possible, nothing is certian.
My basic rule for not losing money, which I hate to do, is never invest when the market is not acting normally, like now.
In the end, price action is the only indicator that really works. And this price action just keeps going up and up.
At some point, reality bites, but my gut says we go up into end of this week, and more likely into end of next week.
BTW, shorting on aug 31 works a lot of the time, and the big top in 1987 was on August 25th.
Kept shorting qqq up to near its high today, after getting in first last thursday (dumb), but in the end covered below 68 for a small profit.
Will keep shorting rallies, but I see qqq 69 or higher by end of next week, or later this week before final top.
We are on breakout, will probably back and fill into tomorrow, but risk for more upside is pretty high now. 1440 is my short entry point.
Good luck trading, am still holding my gld with a hedge, that I almost covered a dozen times the last week, but instead took the safe road and left it on.
This is what I love about this board, we can see what others can not. Wedge in most averages. QQQ is staying above recent channel, same for spx, both of which is bullish.
Question is does earnings support this move? will earnings be better or worse 3 months from now?
Anything is possible, but for now, europe is time bomb, and fed is not able to make the economy run better, just keeping it from collapsing for now.
bottom line: Apple could run to 800 and the spx up to 1570, but at some point, the game is over. Not saying short like i did yesterday (and added more qqq today at 68.22), but buying without tight stops could be fatal to your portfolio.
Did not see sure fire short yet, will probably not see it anyway.
New moon tonight, but what do you mean the short term cycle cracked?
btw, most bullish thing a market can do is keep going up slow and steady even when overbought. Eventually, we fall back to current levels around 1420 even if we rally to 1500 first, but that could be next year.
I am still super bearish on world economies, but could keep limping along ok for another 6 months.
Options numbers suggest we are topping short term,
today is options expiration, so expect not much movement, and also up into close is the norm, then expect reverse of last couple minutes on monday.
NOt a good pattern to be shorting!
I also shorted the qqq at 67.75, underwater for now, have orders to short more at 68.4.
Think we go sideways up today, then if new moon cycle is right, we top out today, or early monday.
Not expecting a big drop, small one then retest of the first high, whatever that number is.
thanks for your posts.
Funny, am going to short near the open tomorrow, and look who else is shorting? Have been waiting for this op for months. My gut says we drop 3 to 5%, then rally one more time into end of august, then bottom falls out. But that is the normal pattern, so who knows what will really happen? End of august has proven to be an excellent time to sell (like in 2000 and 2008, had you sold then, even with the losses in the bear before that, you would have avoided the worst of the losses)
Not selling the farm and shorting yet, waiting a few weeks to do that. good luck to all.
WE just had one of the lowest 5 day trin values in years, and normally that leads to a quick small correction, 3 or 4% at the most.
Most of the trend following indicators are all short term bullish, so a run to either 1425 or even 1450 is likely before the big 10% or more correction into oct starts. I should probably be shorting right now, but am not having a good precictive ability lately, so better to wait till I predict correctly for awhile before I actually trade.
bottom line: Market needs on more retest of june 4 low before a rally into the end of the year, or we could just keep rallying a couple more weeks, and then the bull dies. Not sure which, so just waiting for now.
All systems go, except the pattern since the bottom in june suggests we once again have a 3 day decline, back down to 1359 or so.
Bottom line: This is not the start of a new bull move to new highs, but am confused as to when we once again test the june 4th low this year, but sometime in the next 2 months is a good guess, though some declines last into early november. Depends on too many variable to predict, but am holding till we have another restest to jump in too heavily long.
Am still long gold and tbt, but hedged on both. Nice way to make a little money in a sideways market. No qe3?
Market is unpredictable. Bad news, but it goes up. I was going to heavily short at spx 1400, but did not. So far, smart move.
Will post more numbers after the close, need to update my excel files going back 25 years. I have been only watching near the close every other day, busy with my life instead, until the market makes any sense.
A last thought: IN a strong trend, nothing works but to keep with the trend. Otherwise, often shorting near the end of the month or early in the next month makes money. I still think (not sure, just a thought) that we go up another couple days before we role over, but 1220 to 1300 makes sense for the next low, depending on how bad we panic.
I like qqq, iwm, tbt, and gld for the final rally of the bull market into the end of the year. NOt playing individual stocks, as learned a lont time ago, that near the end of a bull not all stocks will go up. Plus, if you want to play the hot small caps and big techs, then buy the qqq and iwm, as the hot stocks will dominate the move up, and the losers will not hurt the average as much.
Thanks for the reply, and I do remember your post about the 33 and 65 day cycles. Before computers, I would trade watching those cycles, and did ok in a market that was not trending strongly.
Possible the central banks give the markets what they want, and flood the world with money, leading to $3000 gold and higher equity prices, based on easy money.
if not, look out below in short term, but the fed will not let the market collapse before the election, so buy major decline.
21dma and 50dma, and even more important 200dma all rising on spx.
Very bullish.
21dma on vix about to start up, bearish, but can be wrong for weeks.
AD numbers positive, but overbought.
Bottom line: We are topping out, when not if. Time to sell rallies, not buy dips.
Did we already top out, or do we have one more quick rally to near 1400? I have no opinion short term, but see spx 1300 by sept, and maybe a lot sooner. We need a retest of june 4th bottom before we can punch to new highs.
Still long gld, hedged sept 155 call, so making money.
I see on your chart expectation of low next april. My system and experience says we make a bottom before Oct, then rally into January, but then all bets are off, as political game could surprise. More likely, market has terrible 2013 and economy falls off the turnip truck, along with all the other bozos.
I will go fully invested at vix 45, and will start buying at vix 35 if everything else looks right.
"I'm just sitting here watching the wheels go round and round"
Wow, you are good at this game, congratulations on a brilliant call.
I think 1400 will be a great short entry point. Market going up on central bank hopes, not economic reality. Earnings not doing better than expected.
Still have gld, hedged with sept 155 calls. Made good money with the july 155 calls, and still own the gold.
bottom line: this rally is suspect, with these blow off tops and gap opens, along with choppy sideways actions since early june. I would be looking to sell instead of buy. However, looks like the fed will keep a floor under the market into the election, so buy on next major selling climax, between 1220 and 1300 is best guess right now, will have better idea when the drop happens.
Pattern is very bearish short term, but am not shorting, as this market continues to confound me.
Love to see another week of down moves into the full moon,then will buy on a panic selling climax.
If only it was that easy a set up for a buy signal. Gold is doing well so far on this drop, better when all financial assets go poorly (other than safe havens) to predict a solid bottom.