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Trading strategies
As I have posted before, you should not be in stocks like this if you cannot afford to lose the money you have in them. It is MUCH safer to have a basket of small stocks, so that the winners will more than make up the inevitable losses you will take if one member of the basket has horrible news and goes belly-up.
As much as we all may think that NNVC has a great future, it is entirely possible that there will be some problem that prevents this company from reaching greatness. Patent problems, another company comes to market with something else before NNVC does, the lack of toxicity in mice turns out to be meaningless because it IS toxic in humans -- who knows, there is a huge list of what could go wrong.
That said, there is tremendous risk in being entirely out of the stock, because there is always the chance that an announcement could be made, after which the stock opens up 300% and never looks back. I speak from experience.
So, if you want to trade this, it is safest to have a CORE position of money you are willing to lose in its entirety if the company tanks. Then, trade ADDITIONAL shares which you buy on a downswing. Remember that you do not have to do "all or nothing" -- don't do all your buying at one level, and don't do all your selling at one level unless you are convinced that it is a top. (and still have at least a small core position, in case it's the next day that the announcement is made, and the reason it got up so high was that someone knew something in advance..... no aspersions on NNVC, it's just that so often you see this happen)
Small companies take time to ripen.
If this were not an NNVC board, and one of the posters here gets bent out of shape when other companies are mentioned, I would name some companies that I've held for several years, often at a loss, and then one morning I would see that they had news and were up 300%.
If you are expecting this to go from 80 cents to 100 dollars in a few weeks, or a few years, this is not going to suit you.
Also, as much as I think that NNVC may have something stupendous, I would never have one stock as my only position. It is always possible that something could derail this stock. I have a basket of biotechs, and some of them go up and some of them go down every day. In time, if you have a basket of biotechs with promising technology, some of them will go up enough to more than make up for the losers, and hand you very nice profits.
But patience is required.
Treating infection instead of using vaccines -- economic sense
This article talks about the billions wasted on H1N1 vaccine that is not needed. NO ONE would have to be vaccinated (well, except maybe health care professionals on the front lines of an epidemic) if there were an effective treatment.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20100126/hl_time/08599195660800;_ylt=AsrLD03v3C3QrGeQSyZSUgkUewgF;_ylu=X3oDMTM1dGo3NzNsBGFzc2V0A3RpbWUvMjAxMDAxMjYvMDg1OTkxOTU2NjA4MDAEY2NvZGUDbW9zdHBvcHVsYXIEY3BvcwM2BHBvcwM2BHNlYwN5bl90b3Bfc3RvcmllcwRzbGsDZGlkd2hvZXhhZ2dl
Which might be why big pharma could want NNVC NOT to succeed.
NNVC from 0.80 to 1.10 in a month
Really, guys, how can you expect it NOT to pull back? Yes there are a bunch of trapped longs who bought higher -- and perhaps they will want to get out again eventually when NNVC returns to their buy price -- but if you bought a month ago, isn't a 37.5% profit good enough, maybe for the whole year?
Sure, I'd love to hear the big announcement or some news that makes it zoom to 3, but if you ask me, it's already zoomed quite a bit in the last month.
Someone mentioned DNDN. I was in DNDN when it was less than 4 bucks, and when it went to 7, I took profits, breathed a sigh of relief as it sold off again.... and then one morning it gapped up hugely, without me on board..... and I've had to buy it back at much higher levels.
Just saying.....
oh yeah, here's a real basic chart:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=nnvc&sid=0&o_symb=nnvc&x=0&y=0
Does veterinary use take as long for approval? Wondering about the Ebola-cide or whatever they would call it, to use in the non-human primates. I would think news of veterinary success would zoom NNVC.
You're right, but Gates could fund Ebola research among other horrible tropical viruses.
It's not JUST the NIH and other federal agencies that might have grants NNVC is eligible for.
If Gates funds mosquito vaccines, why not NNVC to actually cure the disease? Just think what would happen if they gave the company a nice big grant for malaria research -- or Ebola, or AIDS.... hope the management is pursuing things like this.
Hey, I can dream, can't I? LOL
Gates Foundation funding new malaria vaccine approach
vaccinate the mosquito so it can't spread the disease...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20100117/hl_time/08599195417700
So Montreal has better "mechanics" than Vegas.
No kidding, I watched with fascination as a mechanic cleaned me out at Planet Hollywood. It was worth losing the money to see such a master in action.
Don't freak out if NNVC pulls back before the long weekend. It's come awfully far, awfully fast.
MRNA, cautionary tale. Yesterday/today, see what happens when you come too far, too fast? So guys, relax, you do NOT want NNVC to go straight to 2 on no news, or it's going to come right back down again.
That said, MRNA's problems are of their own making. Dopey management announces great test results, people pile in (it was up aroung 80% at one point yesterday) then they choose today to announce that they've got a secondary offering selling shares at 40 cents less than yesterday's closing price. D'oh ! ! ! So now you have a whole bunch of burned, p-o'ed investors...
You think 1.12's possible every day! Kidding! EOM
YOU're not in trouble. NNVC doesn't have to disclose private negotiations, unlike what someone was seeming to imply.
There's no regulation about disclosing preliminary negotiations. eom
Article, more balanced view of XMRV controvery (Chronic Fatigue)
http://www.economist.com/sciencetechnology/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15211401
Inflammation is a known risk factor for arterial plaque development. That's why you've been seeing all those articles about how the health of your gums may determine your overall risk for heart attack and stroke -- it is thought that the constant (usually low-grade) inflammation caused from mild gum disease, is a factor which causes arterial plaque formation.
Chronic Fatigue will be proven to be viral in nature, at least for a large percentage of sufferers. There probably ARE several syndromes with similar symptoms, all lumped into CFS, just as there are many brain disorders all called "autism."
Please see my earlier post:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=45187341
It is much easier for frustrated doctors who can't help a patient, to say "the patient must be nuts" and say that a physical disorder is really a mental disorder. I have no doubt that some "chronic fatigue" sufferers are in fact extremely depressed or have some other psychiatric illness that is causing the symptoms, but there are an awful lot of people who develop this suddenly, after a viral infection, and are living with a disease that makes normal living impossible. Then, adding insult to injury, because until now there was no explanation, they have been written off as mentally ill. Truly terrible.
Thanks for Agora link, Nano (eom)
What other stocks are in the Agora list besides GERN and NNVC? Anybody know?
Thanks --
I feel honored that Google misrepresented my post.
NOT.
Bleccchhh ! ! ! !
Volume was 2 1/2 times normal, good sign
however I wonder how much of this was due to Agora and Al's writing about the stock. So don't be surprised if it goes right back down again. That often happens with penny stocks that get a big internet presence.
Chronic Fatigue virus study is for real. Great researchers, high integrity, and a major breakthrough. This is like the early days of AIDS research when the virus theory was scoffed at.
Of course I'm prejudiced a bit since I know a researcher involved in this.
The English study will be proven to be flawed, eventually. It's a terrible set-back now, though. Nano, tell your neighbor not to lose hope. The researchers are proceeding full steam ahead.
Why the XMRV study is flawed -- link
http://www.cfids.org/cfidslink/2010/010603.asp
"can this study be considered comparable to the results published by Lombardi et al., in Science? In short, no. Both studies included CFS patients defined by the 1994 case definition criteria, but this is where the comparability ends. Here are some of the ways the PLoS ONE and Science methods differ:
The blood was collected from CFS patients in different types of blood collection tubes.
The genomic DNA was extracted and purified using different techniques.
The amount of genomic DNA included in the amplification assay was different.
Different primer sequences were used that amplified different regions of the XMRV proviral DNA.
The conditions of the PCR amplification assay were different – from the numbers of cycles, to the type of polymerase used.
Should these differences affect an investigator’s ability to detect XMRV? To a microbiologist with experience handling samples and studying various infectious agents (as I am), these variances in procedure could make the difference between detecting XMRV or not.
It very well could be true that XMRV is not present in the U.K. as Erlwein, et al. suggest in their discussion, but it is also possible that the technique used in the PLoS ONE paper was suboptimal due to the different methods employed, when compared to the original experiments conducted by Lombardi, et al. "
Their research protocols are seriously flawed and they did NOT follow the procedures Dr. Mikovits used in the original study. This study was a quick hatchet job, leaping in to get exactly the kind of publicity it got. This is going to seriously damage research efforts on chronic fatigue, as this flawed study will now be used to deny research grants to follow up on the brilliant discovery of the XMRV virus's role in this disease.
Appalling. It is going to take a lot of studies now to reverse the damage these people have done.
Of course Allan reads the board. He posted the link on his website, and that's how I found this board. LOL ! ! !
NNVC Competitor?
http://www.techconnect.org/news/item.html?id=135
VICL patents HSV vaccine.
"...announced today the issuance of U.S. Patent No. 7,628,993 covering DNA vaccines for herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2). HSV-2 is a sexually transmitted virus which is the leading cause of genital herpes. Vical is collaborating under a previously disclosed grant on the preclinical development of an HSV-2 vaccine which will be designed for use in people already infected with HSV-2, with the goal of reducing or eliminating periodic viral flare-ups and the associated viral shedding and transmission. The vaccine will be evaluated with Vical's Vaxfectin adjuvant."
This is from a news streamer so I don't have a link
HDVY did nothing for years, tripled in weeks.
Maybe NNVC will be like that. That's what I keep telling myself, anyway. I held HDVY for a long time, but it was worth it. Sold some at the top, then re-bought it around this region. Will hold for another few years if it takes that long to re-test that top tick again. I look at these biocraps as being options that never expire, unless they go bankrupt. And that is why I have a basket of biocraps, not just NNVC.
Patience, grasshopper. (eom)
Herpes viruses represent a huge opportunity for NNVC. It will be great if NNVC can develop a drug shown to be effective on it.
My point is this: there are many theories for what causes Alzheimer's. It is actually a cluster of several diseases which probably have different mechanisms causing it, but because the symptoms are similar, it is lumped under a generic catch-phrase. Research on Alzheimer's is years away from knowing what causes the various forms -- there is controversy even on something as basic as whether the characteristic amyloid tangles in the brain are the CAUSE, or a SYMPTOM. (There are people in their 90's who have significant amyloid tangles, and NO symptoms of dementia.)
So why discredit NNVC by making claims for something that cannot be proven to work on a disease that takes years to develop, and whose cause is not even known, when there are things like AIDS, cervical cancer, herpes, etc., which CAN be shown to be affected by a nano-cide?
Chronic fatigue is caused by a virus. Cervical cancer in some cases is caused by a virus. There are plenty of diseases that are demonstrably caused by viruses, and therefore are potential targets for NNVC. Alzheimer's is NOT proven to be caused by the herpes simplex virus, and until such proof exists, making claims that NNVC may have a treatment for Alzheimer's reduces credibility. Snake oil has been sold by too many companies -- if NNVC eventually has a product that works against cold sores, and if some of the forms of Alzheimer's can be proven to be caused by HSV, then NNVC's drug can be investigated in that realm. Until such time (and frankly I'm dubious, on the basis of more recent studies, that that time will come), why not focus instead on selling the company's story by talking about diseases that NNVC ought to be able to cure?
HSV is NOT proven to be Alzheimer's cause. It is one theory, but only one among many. The term Alzheimer's is being used as a catch-all for many types of dementias, and, just as autism has over 100 different syndromes all lumped together under the label "autism spectrum disorder," there are many types of dementias, often called Alzheimer's. There seem to be different mechanisms which may trigger dementia. In fact, a new drug (Axona) targets mitochondrial dysfunction as a cause -- the theory is that brain cell death is caused by a progressive failure of mitochondria to be able to get energy from carbohydrates, but brain cells have an alternate mechanism that allows them to get energy from medium chain triglycerides, known to athletes as MCT oil. MCTs are also found in abundance in coconut oil.
If anyone here is on a low-fat diet, they might want to do some research. 20% of the cholesterol in your body is found in the brain, and it is needed for healthy brain function. Also, extreme low fat diets can cause serious muscle problems. The "good" fats like olive oil, monounsaturated fats, and the MCTs, are needed for health.
Not everything is going to be cured by NNVC.
If anyone here has a loved one with dementia, it is worth trying giving them MCT oil and coconut oil. There is a great deal of information about this on the internet.
By the way, what causes the annoying underlined links for some words? Blech.
I sent that link to Stock Gumshoe, telling him that one of the 6 was NNVC, and that I'd like to know what the other 5 are. If he investigates and writes an article about NNVC and the others, there will be a pop in the stock. I've gotten a couple of great ideas from him, notably HTGC, biotech venture capital firm which has more than doubled since he profiled it.
Allan has been relentlessly pushing NNVC. This is nothing new.
(Not that I'm complaining about publicity :) )
Reverse split would get share price up above a buck, needed for NASDAQ listing. Or, maybe a 10-to-1 reverse split to get share price above 5, so that mutual funds can buy stock? (and AMEX listing?)
However, remember that stocks that do reverse splits usually go down following the split. Look at OXBT for a "nice" example. (price after reverse split a bit above 6, closed today at 5.47.)
It doesn't seem reasonable to assume that they are confident that stock price will get to 1 and stay above it on its own, by January. Not sure how much notice they have to give if they're planning a reverse split.
For Thanksgiving, we need gravy, gravitas can happen later....