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Hi billpr, I agree with you on the need to uplist. It will bring in several more deeper pocketed investors/managers/traders and will result in a much better (higher) valuation for the company.
I did chuckle when you said maybe 5% of the investing public have heard of VirTra/VTSI. Your point is obviously correct but I would venture to say that maybe 1 in 1000 of the investing public have heard of it.
I don't know for sure but the way I read it, I don't see any sentences talking about cooperation between the two companies. I see VirTra taking advantage of their own superior capabilities in this area of training. Also, I do not believe any Taser inventor is named in the patent application.
Although none of this matters too much to me since if they are cooperating I would be happy and if they view each other as evil competitors I would be happy. I just find it all rather interesting.
The PR from VirTra earlier this week was truly impressive and ever so tangible for several reasons.
First, it again shows that VirTra is continuing to develop and improve their offering in rather impressive ways.
Second, it shows some real backbone and guts. They sort of "stick it in Taser's face" a little with both the PR and the patent filing. Taser has some pretty mature training offerings so this might make them raise their eyebrows a bit and go hhhmmmm.
Third, the patent filing is GREAT. Shows VirTra believes in what they are doing and is willing to spend the money to protect it. Many companies do not do this at all.
Fourth, it really is a great addition to their training offerings and capabilities. Tasers are standard issue - as are guns.
Fifth, simply nice to see Taser and VirTra mentioned in the same breath. It will not be the last time.
For the stock to still be sitting at 25 cents is a remarkable gift for every buyer. 2016 PE is likely 6.x and PS slightly sub 2 with EV/EBITDA below 5. Remarkable for a company profitably growing at this pace in a MARKET FOR THEIR PRODUCTS that is also growing. What a powerful combination: Growing market share in a growing market. Sellers of VTSI stock are simply stupid.
EPS of 10 cents is Net Income of $15.9million. That is a big number and needs a big revenue number behind it.
I love VirTra and VTSI and EVERYTHING about both but there is no way they can consistently repeat Q1 with respect to achieving net income that was roughly 35% of revenue. If they can consistently have a net income that is 15 - 20% of revenue that would be fantastic and drive the stock to unimaginable levels. Look around at the best companies in the world, very very few can even achieve net income that is 10% of revenue on any sort of consistent basis.
All that said, IF Modern Round hits big, then that could provide a really nice kicker to net income due to the royalties. Like has said here before, frosting on the cake.
The move from 15 cents to 25 cents has been relatively slow and steady with a few decent ups/dips along the way. There really is not a technical reason for consolidation.
Even at 55cents, the current year PE is likely well below 15. So, at 55 cents one can make a case for it being at "fair value." However, given the forward prospects, the timeliness of the product line, the profitability, the balance sheet, and the need for growth from several competitors and other related companies it seems to me this will run to about $1.50 or so over the next 12 months.
If everything on the VirTra plate works out, pretty easy to get to EPS of 7 to 10 cents in 2 to 3 years.
Nice to see the buying continue. Looks like clear sailing to 40 cents over the next week or two. That is a 50% return from here and just one small step toward the inevitable $1.00+. There is enough revenue here for the new team to generate some impressive profits. Great first step with getting on thousands of retail shelves this coming Fall and Christmas!
I always feel pretty good when I see a stock I own be painted down at the close. As you said, this means the buyers are still active and the stock is heading higher. I am surprised anyone even bothers to paint such a low volume stock like VTSI. That said, there was a ton of the same thing going on with EMMS for several months when it was much lower.
Maybe the issue I have with many posts here is that they are written as if VTSI has zoomed upward and trading volumes have skyrocketed and the share price is at some sort of high level.
Nothing like that has happened. Trading volume remains very low. Even today the volume is less than 1% of outstanding. The stock price is still about 1/2 to 1/3rd of where it should be. The trailing PE is barely above 10 and that is for a company growing at well over 20% per year. EV/EBITDA is sub-8 and sub-5 for this FY. PS is less than half of TASR. Then look at the balance sheet - pristine.
The other thing that drives me nuts is that the newer posters here with thousands of posts and hundreds of followers talk about "loading up" and "buying now" and blah blah blah but they are ALL TALK and BS if you ask me. Trading volumes are nothing. Are all those clowns 20 year olds with too much time on their hands and no money? I mean really, a person can buy 1% of the company for less than $400,000. Real money but not really when coming from several people and followers.
I'm still chuckling over your opening 4 words. You might very well be correct in what you wrote following that.
Just to play devil's advocate a bit and stick with my optimistic self. What if the recent move is simply due to the obvious factors? Strong record of profitable growth that seems to be accelerating. The trailing valuations of PE and EV/EBITDA and even PS (relative to others in sector) that make the stock obviously too cheap. And a macro environment that makes the need for VirTra's system obvious to even clueless money managers. And a CEO that is talking shareholder value and increased shareholder liquidity.
I will further add this: What if knowledge/fear over what might be proposed in the upcoming proxy is holding the stock back? Many out there might fear a reverse split. Many might not believe in the value of an uplist. If any of this is true, VTSI stock might literally explode upward when either the proxy does come out or after the reverse split (if there is one). Look at what happened to both the stock price and volume in EMMS just a couple days after their reverse split.
VTSI is not a 25 cent stock, it is worth much more.
Hey fishhunter, good call. Ha Ha or not. Anyway, EMMS has a crystal clear path to $5.20 over the next month or so. Then it will depend on a few good things happening like NY improvement, NextRadio ad signings ala Home Depot, etc.
No "Flipper" is ever going to buy a stock like VTSI in any meaningful way. The volumes are too low and the % moves are too low and slow. Think about it, buying 100,000 shares (which isn't easy) costs $25,000 and will likely have to be done in 2 or 3 separate buys. Now let's say you want to sell those shares at 2 or 3 cents higher. Again, not so easy, need multiple sells and you would only net about $2500. That is way too much work for that amount of money and a paltry 10% gain.
VTSI buying interest has been steady and relatively strong for a couple months now. Buyers are here for the long term in my opinion. This is still a potential 10 bagger over the next couple years. This type of profitable growth is tough to find in this market.
Anyone out there worried about a reverse split, look at what EMMS has done since their split a few days ago.
I'll bet VirTra is right now filming new scenarios involving officers making traffic stops and speaking to people through an open car window.
If the last 24 hours of personal/field video of senseless deaths doesn't illustrate the need for better training then nothing will.
weeble, I really hope your statement about needing the money for rent was a joke. But if not, you really do have a much larger set than I.
Even at 24 cents the TRAILING twelve month PE is below 10. Just a bit below 10.
VTSI is going to keep on marching upward well beyond its current fair value of 50 - 80 cents.
Same thing happened on 3 different occasions in 2009 prior to the run up to 2.35.
My belief is MCZ isn't going to move up until the shares are in the correct hands. I haven't a clue who has the correct hands.
Aug 15 is a Monday so that would be my guess. They have been very consistent over the last several years with Q1/2/3 coming out 45 days after the Q.
I really enjoy how we all come at this from different angles yet still arrive at the same conclusion - that VTSI is one of THE best buys in the stock market.
I come at it from the direction of its proven track record of profitable revenue growth for over a decade. From the reality that its TRAILING PE is sub-8 and it is debt free and growing cash. Its product line is very timely and that isn't going to change. One can argue some about its growth rate, I say it has proven to be a 20 - 25% per year grower whose growth is now accelerating. All while improving profitability. And now the CEO is openly and aggressively discussing shareholder value and increased liquidity for the shareholders.
Their order pipeline is beyond strong.
Modern Round could provide frosting on the cake beyond what any of us can model.
And while it is a pink sheet stock at the moment, ALWAYS REMEMBER that their customers are entities with bottomless pockets whose orders and buys and installations are in the public domain and easy to verify. This gives VTSI a huge measure of increased credibility verses any other pink sheet and/or OTC stock.
The fun is just getting started. VTSI is completely undiscovered. Crazy.
I always wonder if the person(s) selling their shares on a day like today even understand they are selling a company that is profitably growing at 25%+ per year yet is trading at a trailing PE of 8? They are literally giving away their shares.
The current fiscal year is now half over, EPS for this FY is likely to be 4 cents or so. The brilliant sellers today are bailing out at a current fy PE of 5.
I guess those of us that continue to add shares each week should be thanking these sellers, otherwise we would not have any shares to buy.
We have all learned some pretty compelling new news regarding VirTra over the last few days. Read the recent PR on the Australia win---VirTra has a PORTABLE SYSTEM!!! Go to the Modern Round website and read through the various pages---VirTra has what MR calls a customized consumer product!!!.
Why is this stuff important? First the Portable System, this means the entire $40mil pile of money is potentially available to VirTra. Also opens the door to other big wins and broadens their product portfolio. Then the systems that went in to MR. These are truly different in many ways from what goes to the military/police/Customs/etc. VirTra made major software changes to come up with these "games". Tremendous development effort.
To me all this really sheds light on the company in a very favorable way. They are not standing pat and milking the cow dry. They are innovating and developing and pursuing opportunity. They are acting with urgency and driving extremely profitable relentless growth. Shareholders are set to benefit greatly.
Good move Ardly. It isn't too late and I would argue that VTSI hasn't even moved yet. It is easy to justify a conservative value of 50 cents/share right now (based primarily on PS) and one can even justify an aggressive valuation of $1/share right now (based primarily on EPS).
"Reward Shareholders" and "Shareholder Value" and "Increased Liquidity for Shareholders".
CEO is now talking the talk and the numbers are more than justifying a big jump up in stock price. When the people notice and start buying shares VTSI could run far higher than any of us imagine. Gonna happen.
I love your post!
I will happily pay double!
I've never been in a Top Golf so that is very helpful to know. Makes me feel even better.
Top Golf has the challenge of competing with golf courses that are everywhere. MR has the challenge of competing with real guns that are everywhere.
Like for any of this stuff, location is everything.
I would be willing to bet that the MR folks have their first 15 to 20 locations pretty well defined. Think about everything that went into the first location, it is really impressive compared to just about every other "restaurant" on the planet.
This is not something that was haphazardly thrown together. It took a ton of money and planning and execution. Even the VirTra end of things with the various unique games, the menu, the arrangement of the restaurant, the fact that you can choose from a variety of guns, the computerized reservation systems, and on and on. This first site opened at a very mature level.
Someone has been willing to spend a whole bunch of money upfront and is banking on this thing (MR) paying off. It was/is a reasonable gamble for VirTra and I'm happy they have their mits on it. Though again, it is potentially more like the frosting on the cake than the actual cake.
A typical Olive Garden or Cracker Barrel or Red Lobster takes about $1.8 to $2.5million bucks to build and open from an empty lot. I bet that this first MR location cost well over $3mil and that is because they didn't have to first build the building! These MR principals are in it to win.
Yes, I like the LV location best of all. Sometimes this sort of thing is best placed where most people cant do the real thing. What I mean is, if you put a MR in the middle of Indiana, it probably isn't going to draw people because why go there to shoot fake guns when you can go out your backdoor and shoot real ones.
This is one reason why I think MR could have some very successful international locations such as in Europe and the Middle East and places like Shanghai and Hong Kong.
The next 3 Modern Round locations are Dallas, Las Vegas, and San Antonio! Maybe you guys knew this already but I stumbled across the page on the Mod Round website where they have each site listed. I think the Dallas site is next up as it says "opening soon".
Added another 50k shares today at .1896. Difficult to understand why anyone would ever sell a stock like this one. But I'm happy someone did!
Every single one of the last several presidents were terrible for the USA.
Bush 1 - Gulf War
Clinton 1 - Monica, Lies, Cause of 2007 housing crash.
Bush 2 - More War, 911, Recession at end, reason for Obama rise
Obama - Nat Healthcare debacle, USA became embarrassment, Muslim invasion, Will not enforce laws, Supreme Ct appts, the destruction of the USA.
Every single one of the previous Presidents were loyal to party first and country second.
Trump has built a great company, worth billions, he has thousands of female and male employees of every political and cultural background. He speaks plainly and means what he says and will not back down. If the only thing he would do as president is build a wall then he would be worth it. Look at his list of Sup Ct possible nominees, what other candidate has put forth a list? And look at terrorism and what the career politicians are trying to do. Insane. The problems are easily addressed with common sense solutions.
Yes, I do want Trump to be president. When he first entered the race I didn't like him and wanted him out. But the more he talked, the more I liked him and still like him. (Originally I was a Rubio fan.)
Listen carefully to Trump, he truly cares about the USA and I believe he will take several specific actions that will help the country (build a wall, cut down on immigration from terrorist regions, shut off the USA from middleeast debacle, make sure the Chinese deal with N. Korea, Make sure our European "friends" pay for all the protection they get from the USA,etc.) Trump is also the ONLY candidate who treats EVERYONE the same, race, color, sex, religion, wealth, etc. mean nothing to him. Everyone is equal in his eyes.
Listen carefully to all the career politicians. They put party above country. They put people in buckets based on skin color, sex, religion, etc. They try to divide to further their own causes. And worst of all, they are doing nothing to get 100million Americans back to work.
My biggest fear is that Hillary gets indicted. She belongs in jail, but then some lovable admitted plagiarist like Biden might get pulled in.
I don't mean to argue, but will a bit. Tax returns mean nothing in terms of providing info into one's wealth. They are actually called "Income Tax Returns" for a reason. For example, my income is low (sub-$50k) but my net worth is high (quite a few millions). This is not uncommon if you own a bunch of property.
Ok on the blind trust but in the case of Trump I am sure one of the kids will run it so maybe officially blind....but not really. Most blind trusts are not truly blind.
Ferris has over 10 consecutive years of growing the top line and the bottom line. There was only 1 year where revenue dipped very slightly and 2 years (I think) where net income was flat to slightly down. You may say that sucks, I say it puts him in the top 2% of all CEOs.
He has grown a company from nothing to maybe $18 or $20mil in revenue this year with a current market cap of $30mil. Again, pretty spectacular in my eyes.
Wow, and I thought I was cynical!
#1....Gun laws cannot change. Look what happened in Senate yesterday.
#2....The principals of MR have many millions and Trump has many billions.
#3....Trump too old to mess around as you alledge. And there is no law requiring a blind trust.
#4....Trump cares about the USA and Trump. The repubs care about the repubs and not about the country (same as dems). Trump is a populist and will easily win.
#5....If VTSI goes private, my guess is Ferris ends up in control with a hand full of partners and you and I pocket 25 - 40cents per share.
#6....I don't know enough to comment although that rarely stops me.
You should just sell your shares and move on if you don't believe the stock will go higher. And why so down on Ferris? He does not control the stock price. He does have great influence on and has demonstrated a great ability to profitably grow revenue while maintaining a top shelf balance sheet. Very few CEOs have his track record of revenue and profit growth over the last decade.
Bill, With all due respect, I sorta think you have a couple things backward. First, if Shrillary and the dems win, that will continue to do wonders for the sale of guns. Ruger and S&W and all the shops will continue to do extraordinarily well. Nothing drives sales more than fear.
Second, this first Mod Round location will generate revenue (for Mod Round) in the range of $4 to $6mil per year. If it doesn't, then game over for Mod Round. It is worth the small gamble for VirTra since the payoff could be really big if Mod Round succeeds. For Mod Round, all that matters is location. The right location and it will do fine. Nobody is buying VTSI because of Mod Round, nor should they. Mod Round and its principal owners have plenty of money to open another couple locations this year.
Remember VTSI is a 60 cent stock trading at 18 cents simply because no one knows about it and current owners are too impatient to hold their shares.
Ok, here's an even crazier (probably stupid) idea....What if the move of the annual meeting from early May to mid-Sept was to make sure the first Mod Round was open....that way a reverse merger into Mod Round or buyout by Mod Round would be viewed more positively and likely to be approved? The S&W guy apparently always wanted VirTra and now he has a vehicle to get it and then IPO it.
This is what happens when one has too much time and is bored. Entertaining though.
Sure could. The more eyes that see VirTra's product the more likely it is that the right eye sees VTSI. That is how people like you and I stumble into stocks all the time. We see something that makes us go "hhhmmm" or "interesting" or "neat"....and then people wired like us take the next step and ask "wonder who makes that?". Then we go online to see if the company is publicly traded, then check valuation, then make a decision to buy or not. I did it years ago with Concur, with Build-A-Bear, with Kohls, with Ruger, etc.
The neat thing with a tiny company like VTSI is that it doesn't take many "eyes" to boost the stock significantly. 1% of the company only costs a hair over $300k.
I think Modern Round will never have the appeal of the golfing chain but if they pick their sites carefully they could likely end up with 20 or 30 great locations around the USA. It also seems like the sort of thing that many "companies" or "groups/departments" within companies would choose to take their employees for a special fun corporate afternoon or evening or team building sort of thing.
I will bet each Modern Round location will generate about $6million per year in revenue for Modern Round so 10 locations would have a market value of $70 - $90million depending on profitability. VirTra's ownership % of Mod Round could be a very significant thing within 2 or 3 years (not to mention the payouts to VirTra).
billpr, I appreciate the kind words and I enjoy your posts and views as well. I admit that sometimes my emotions get the best of me and I get chippy or even a little mean. I keep trying to work on that.
Yea, I was thinking about things more after I posted. If I'm Ferris and I want a bigger piece of the company, what do I do? Can't really buy enough shares in the open market without skyrocketing the stock. Also, really couldn't take it private a year or two ago IF I needed to borrow money to do so. I have no idea if Ferris is wealthy or well-off or poor, no clue. My guess is he has a few bucks but is not wealthy to the tune of 10s of millions that are liquid in cash since he never took much of a salary as CEO.
So Ferris maybe needed to wait until the picture was crystal clear for whatever bank and/or lender and/or partner are with him on this. So by moving the meeting from May to Sept, that allowed the release of Q4 and Q1 before the plan is made public via proxy. Those numbers would have to make it easier to get buy-in from the money guys. The $40mil contract win would also make any lender feel much more secure and confident.
I just reread the above and I realize I am sounding like some crazy looney toon conspiracy theorist. I'm not. I own and love VTSI for what they have done and are doing, aggressively growing in a very profitable way by maintaining a stellar balance sheet. All this other junk/speculation is simply fun entertainment and crazy guesses.
If only we all knew that ahead of time. Should be out in late July but I don't think they have given a date.
My guesses, in order of most likely to least likely in my warped brain:
1. 1 for 10 reverse split, uplist to OTC.
2. Effort by Ferris and co. to take company private at 40cents.
3. Vote on cash+stock buyout by Taser or someone else at 50cents.
4. Significant open market stock buyback/retirement of shares to take sharecount down by 25%. Perhaps done via a tender offer of 25cents or so.
5. Some combination of the above.
I wouldn't be so optimistic except for Ferris' use of the word increased "liquidity" on 2 different occasions. Shareholder value has also been mentioned a couple times in the last 6 or 9 months. And why did they move the meeting from early May to mid-Sept?
While #2 or #3 would feel good short term, I really am hoping for either #1 and/or #4 (even if it means taking on some debt). They generate enough cash to retire any debt rather quickly.
With little company stocks, people can open/close them about where-ever they want. I simply look at where the bulk of the shares traded during the day to determine the real "current price."
The decent sized order a little above .18 may or may not fill. Isn't that a brilliant statement. By the same token, if he/she put the bid price for 500k shares at 20 cents I would say the same thing, not sure it would fill there either.
Obviously the company is worth 50 cents today. How it gets there will be interesting but it will get there. I would guess a big jump up will come as soon as the proxy info is out. But who knows.
It had been at .195 for a day and a half. But maybe it isn't the same buyer? I personally think the bidder is being stubborn and saving a few dollars might cost him many thousands. No one buys a penny stock or microcap stock in the hopes it goes up 10%, one buys with the expectation of a 500% to 1000+% move.
Nice to see EMMS continue to rise. Looking at the company's operational improvements and potential of presidential race and NEXT radio and stock price relative to recent history and this thing should easily trade back to $2.50 over the next year. So a 3 or 4 bagger from here!
Extremely unlikely. Furthermore, when a company does buy back shares they cannot play any games with bid/ask or on again off again orders.
Congratulations! Nothing better or sweeter than a little baby. Sort of puts everything in perspective.