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Ruffie, If you are hearing whispers it is because your brain is slowly being eaten by beatles. Nobody follows VTSI, nobody cares about VTSI, no one has heard of VTSI, it is undiscovered. All that will be changing as revenue passes $20mil and then $50mil and $100mil and as the valuation becomes too compelling to ignore and the uplisting starts to shed some light on this little company.
The stock hasn't even moved today and you see something in that? Dollar value traded is about zero as well yet you see/hear visions and beatles. On any given day at any given moment there MIGHT be 1 or 2 people looking to add a few shares and maybe 1 or 2 looking to sell some. If the next transaction were at 5 cents or 70cents it would mean nothing, simply the price that two people agreed to exchange their shares at.
When this is trading 10million shares a day and the bid/ask is within a tenth of a cent then we will know the price is what it is. Until then this is all meaningless.
Looks to me like the seller was pretty careful to simply sell the number of shares to fill the bid and not drop the stock lower. Probably someone just lightening up a little.
Q2 report late next week!
Yes, I saw that. I was just in my Fidelity account stealing (buying) a few more shares of STRI and clicked on my VTSI position and there it was....350k at .2482. Sort of made me want to grab the 12,500 at the ask slightly above but I resisted the urge for now.
How do you think I feel?
I think you are exactly correct. That is why on a quarterly basis net income might be 1% of revenue or like the recent Q1 35% of revenue. I just think it is a really good business and a very profitable business and one that can likely have net income that is about 15% of revenue. Which is spectacular.
Bill, I agree with the point you are making. But please recall that several years ago they changed the way they recognized revenue and cost of sales and brought them into compliance with GAAP. Essentially they went to the more conservative method of recognizing revenue only when a system "has shipped."
I remember this being explained in either an earnings release or press release maybe 4 or 5 years ago.
This is one reason why net income can be very lumpy.
All that said, most every company can play some games around end of quarter numbers. Both multi-billion public companies that I worked for did it and so did a $600mil private company.
I haven't a clue about Q2 numbers but I do like to make guesses so here is mine.
Last year's Q2 was $3.109million in revenue and $239.9thousand in Net Income. This net income was 7.7% of revenue.
It is pretty much impossible to accurately estimate any one quarter for VirTra due to the vast difference in size between orders and ship dates that vary from months to years and about 17 other factors.
So, instead of calling this a guess, I will call it "what I hope for": I hope revenue is $4million and net income is $600thousand. That way the first HALF of this FY would be over $10mil and EPS would be pushing 2cents.
Perhaps the number includes the time spent filling out paperwork and answering questions whenever this sort of use of force (taser firing) happens. If so, the $ number for training is likely somewhat lower.
I would guess every time a bullet is fired, it costs a department many thousands of $.
I agree with you. The whole vibe sort of flipped. Perhaps Borg is 100% out.
Wow, this message board is way better when I don't post! Was gone fishing for a few days and just read through all the Sat/Sun/Mon posts. Some really good comments and perspectives and insight.
I really found the Modern Round review interesting since I was wondering whether the place was getting any customers. There next several locations look even better.
And great info all around joelawyer. That sort of stuff makes it easier to "keep the faith" though for me it is all about valuation relative to revenue, earnings, and balance sheet.
Many other great posts as well.
weo, I am a poor schmuck who lives 1000+ miles from AZ. I am so far from being an insider that it isn't even funny. I first heard about VTSI from a Yahoo message board mention 7 or 8 years ago. My first purchase was at about 10cents! My lowest since then was about 3.6 or 3.9 cents. Can't remember exactly and too lazy to look but I know it was sub-4cents.
I am not a fortune teller. I base my share price guesses purely on two things. The first is what I believe the company is worth (to me). For example, I would be willing to pay 60 cents per share for every outstanding share of the company today if it were possible to do so. At that price, I am confident I could get an excellent return on my investment. The second are PS,PE,EV/EBITDA relative to other companies and relative to growth rate.
I love that there are some here that do not share my views since that is what has enabled me to accumulate a large number of shares over the years at a relatively low price.
My frustration with posters like you and Twister is that I do not believe your motives are pure. In other words, why would you or anyone post on a message board of a stock that they hate or have "zero trust" in? Obviously neither you nor Twister own any shares. Obviously neither of you would buy any since you don't trust the CEO. So again, why post? Surely you must have better things to do with your time.
I also like Crown Royal but haven't had any for years. Back about 5 or 6 years ago it was a favorite, then I started switching to other stuff every time a bottle was emptied. I think I should go back to Crown Royal for awhile - next bottle!
And you are right that I will hopefully be smarter at 70 than I am now (closing on 50). What I don't like is that the older I get, the less risk I am willing to tolerate. When I was younger I would have sold every other stock I owned this morning and put it all into VTSI. This morning I didn't sell anything else but did move some money from cash to more VTSI. I am mad at myself for the caution.
I am not enough of an OTC or Nasdaq expert to understand all the hurdles a company must jump through to obtain a listing. I do know they are rather significant and sort of costly though. The actions outlined in the proxy to assure the proposals pass tell me that Ferris is smarter today than several years ago and much more serious about it.
This is all sort of fun because it will play out over the next 2 weeks, several months, and about 1 year. Then one of us can tell the other: "I told you so."
I will also add this: The stock had been stable at 25 cents for a decent amount of time and should have never dipped today. It dipped on several sales caused by misinformation on various message boards.
In fact, we know so much more today than even a couple days ago and it is ALL really great news. We have the CEO who owns about 9%+ of the company stating point blank they will be uplisting. We know for certain the proxy items will be approved per the CEO's wishes and the result will be a Nevada corp (like many other companies) which is step 1 on the path to uplisting. We have a well written letter from the CEO talking about where VirTra has been and where they are heading and he has the credibility to back it up.
The stock SHOULD HAVE jumped from 25cent to 30cents and I believe it would have if all the info had been presented in a well worded press release on Thursday evening. But this doesn't much matter because it will still get there and much much higher, likely in well less than 1 year. Heck, Bill will still be alive and kickin!
weeble, I doubt the stock stays here very long. It is going much higher, simply has to due to company performance.
Can you imagine what the valuation would be if the company were on either national OTC or Nasdaq? PE would be 30 and/or PS would be 6 and/or EV/EBITDA would be 15. The cool thing is, VTSI will be at least OTC and maybe even Nasdaq in far less than 1 year (my guess).
I crown myself king of the idiots if that letter was there last night when I was reading the proxy. Some times I really feel stupid. Damn.
I will say this: The one thing Ferris should have done and should still do is issue that letter in a press release.
Otherwise no one finds it or reads it. All this stock gyration could have been avoided. Though from a technical standpoint, probably good to get rid of some weak hands.
The market has not given its opinion.
The stock is thinly traded and not followed by anyone. The stock is down today because 1 to 5 people decided to sell a decent number of shares "at the market", simply dump them. A few savvy buyers bought some but most individuals like us that follow VTSI already have plenty of shares so buying is muted.
The market opinion will be given over the next couple weeks.
Well said Gregg. Today's volume is essentially zero, only about 1% of shares traded. I added more shares but most all above 20cents.
Imagine, we get to buy a proven 20%+ grower at a trailing PE of 8, current fiscal year PE of 5 or 6, a PS of 1 based on the FY starting in 5 months, and EV/EBITDA likely sub 3! Lots of upcoming catalysts. The most timely of products for this day and age in a visible industry.
Today's reaction is exactly the same as what happened when they reported Q4. The Q4 report was great yet stupid people were selling, a week later the stock is making new highs. Same thing here, last nights proxy was good news, reaction from the stupid is typical, stock goes well above 30 cents by Aug 20. Bank on it.
Twister, What IS shameful is your post. It is filled with LIES. There are no free shares awarded to management. Some temporary preferred shares with voting rights that ASSURE a quorum so the company can move forward with the uplist. It says those preferred shares WILL BE CANCELED as soon as company is domiciled in Nevada. They are a necessary TOOL and I APPLAUD Ferris for doing it. The last 4 years, there has never been a voting quorum so IMPOSSIBLE to get anything done via shareholder vote.
You say - without regard for common shareholders - What are you smoking? Look at the revenue and earnings growth and balance sheet AND SHARE PRICE growth of the last DECADE.
You must be one of those little flippers that got caught more out than in. Sad for you.
Just finished reading pretty much the whole thing. They did a nice job explaining things. I think the market will react very favorably for several reasons:
#1: This pretty much says the wheels are now in motion for some sort of uplist/move to get off the pinks and realize the proper valuation for the company. It is going to happen.
#2: It also screams to me that Q2 will be good and Q3/4 as well since good results will help ensure the changes happen and make sense.
The next couple years are going to make today's shareholders a ton of money.
weo, I own less than 5%, no filing requirement. Thank you for your concern.
Bill, I have owned shares for 6 or 7 years. Ferris has run the company extremely well during that time. He has produced results that few CEOs can rival. The stock has risen 5 fold. He has a big personal stake in the company with his ownership of shares. Since Duchess was put to rest there has not been any dilution nor will there be.
I know Ferris DOES care about me as he has replied to most every email and phone call I have ever made to him. Typically 1 per quarter. He is always professional. I own several percent of the company and added shares earlier this week as I do most weeks.
To answer your question, YES I am happy with this proxy because now I know that the person who cares the most about the company, who has run it better than anyone else on Earth, who has made me a ton of money, and who has a huge vested interest can implement his plan TO IMPROVE SHAREHOLDER VALUE and SHAREHOLDER LIQUIDITY as he has said he will do. Gregg has explained the move the domicile move to Nevada, it is step 1.
Hey there weo1998, Ask yourself, Who is the largest shareholder of VirTra? It is Ferris. What is good for him is good for us. The end. Stop trying to talk it down and steal poor Bill's shares.
bill, Please lie down and call 911 as you have obviously fallen on your head as evidenced by the cracked concrete floor near the liquor cabinet. Relax man. As far as Q2, obviously they cannot repeat Q1 with respect to $2.4mil in net income. However, if they can come in with revenue of $4 to $5 million and net income of $600k I would be very happy since we would be above $10mil and EPS of 2cents through only 6 months of the year! That alone justifies a 60 cent share price, easily. And by the way:
If they had said they were doing a 1 for 20 reverse split you would be whining about that.
If they had said they were going to buy back shares you would whine about that.
If you really believe the stock is going to tank then the ONLY rational thing for you to do is to sell your shares immediately on tomorrow's open. Please!
GreggAZ has restored my faith in the common shareholder. Thank you Gregg for your posts. Bottom line, as long as VirTra keeps performing as they have, shareholders have nothing to worry about and will get rich being buyers/holders.
If you want to know why it is important for Ferris to have voting control, read the last dozen messages on this board. The average shareholder is an idiot (as evidenced by the failure of the RS several years ago).
This proxy is good news. Why do you think Nevada? Pretty obvious they are attached at the hip to Mod Round and its "owner". Why does Ferris want to assure control? Because some major structuring (as in good for shareholders and liquidity and stock price) is coming sooner (likely late this year) rather than later.
Why are people on this board so paranoid? Ferris is the one that has grown this from nothing to a market cap of $40mil with spectacular revenue growth, earnings, and balance sheet. The company is far better in his hands than ours.
At least now the stock can go up without the worry of a RS. It will be over $1 within a year. Just not sure the ticker will be VTSI.
I am sort of surprised the trading this week has been as calm/orderly as it has been. A couple really big near term catalysts are directly ahead.....proxy info should be out tomorrow....then Q2 earnings report in two weeks.
There will always be some nervous nellies and in this market it rarely makes sense to buy ahead of news no matter what company or stock or industry.
I think no matter what the proxy plan is or is not, the stock will react favorably as long as things are well explained, hopefully via a parallel press release from the company.
That is helpful info. Sort of funny in that if we had never ever heard of the merger and Hutch was just carrying on as normal then that sort of news would have resulted in a nice price bump up for HTCH stock. My guess is TDK and NHK were selling suspensions well below their actual costs, in other words at a loss. Hutch has been paying the price for this for several years now.
Hi Snooze, Excellent post and interesting thoughts. If only we knew what was going on. This could be a great buy....or not.
Perhaps the FTC is killing the TDK buyout?
x1power, Not sure of the purpose of your post. MCZ is a company with $80+million in sales trading at 22cents and is operationally profitable. Lots of Tritton in GameStop and this upcoming holiday season they will be in over 2000 Walmarts and/or Targets with 7+ distinct SKUs. With over $7mil in cost saving due to rightsizing the org, EPS is likely to be 5 - 8cents this FY.
Feel free to sell or short, I will continue to add. We will see who wins by about Feb 10th.
Good suggestions and we did all that 2 days ago. Was a great hike. The only driving we are doing is IN on arrival and then OUT on Saturday. Probably go up to the George Wash bridge to cross the river and head back west.
I appreciate that weeblewobble. Thank you. We are doing fine and having a great time. This is our first trip here and Manhattan is much better/nicer than I ever expected. Sort of like Shanghai but with much more history and more compact and better air and nicer people and safer and more variety of foods/restaurants! I never realized what a treasure Central Park is and how beautiful, the hills/rocks/water and all the entertainment and surprises like the zoo. About the only thing that really ticked me off so far was having to pay to drive through the Lincoln Tunnel to get here....and the fact that the tall buildings really mess with our minivan's GPS. Made a couple unnecessary circles on the way to the hotel.
With every job at every level at every company, everything is negotiable. Always has been always will be.
Although I participate in this sort of killing-time-chatter, I sure find it to be useless. At least late next week there will be something interesting to discuss with the proxy info being out. Also getting closer to mid-Aug and the Q2 report.
Right now I'm sitting in a hotel room between Central Park and Times Square having walked my legs off at the Met Art museum and Central Park. Manhattan can sure separate a person from his money in a big hurry but it is really fun. Also makes 100,000 or even 1million shares of VTSI look like peanuts. Next week I'm adding to my pile of shares in a big way. So I guess next week I will hope jmod continues with his art-of-accumulation!
You hit the nail directly on the head.
I've worked for 5+ years at each of 3 different world-class companies in 3 different industries. At every company at least half the employees should have been fired because they simply stunk (did not produce, were not smart, did not care, etc.) So, if Ferris does churn through some employees then I am all for it. It is close to impossible to hire perfectly no matter how good a judge one is.
I will also add that I have worked with some of the most talented engineering talent in this country and some of the best executives. While some of the greatest engineers were likeable, NONE of the executives were without serious personality/stylistic flaws. Most were disliked by more people than liked them. Just the way it is. You don't make a ton of friends by driving an organization hard and pushing people to produce to their potential.
I was a program manager type for half of my career. Generally my teams hated working for me but they loved what we accomplished and the fact that we produced products that were the best in the world. But most of all they loved the rewards (money, promos) that came from above (the execs)and the doors the successes opened. Those ABOVE me (the execs), loved me. Just the way it was/is.
bill, Companies often do evolve and change and improve over time due to both external influences and internal ones. The magnitude of these changes are typically greatest when a company is young and growing.
You have obviously been here since the beginning. You would do well to simply forget about everything that happened with the company in its first few years and instead focus on the last 10 years and more importantly, the next 2 or 3 years.
Think about how far these guys have already come....dilution is done, Duchess is gone, sales will top $20mil over the next year, profits are a better-than-healthy percentage of revenues, million dollar plus contracts/wins are common, and on and on. Then look at the macro world environment and what that is likely to do for VirTra sales and profits.
Now think about the CEO. Is he smarter today than 20 years ago? Is he more business savvy? Has he demonstrated the ability to run a big time company/organization? The answers are obviously yes to all these questions.
Is the stock a better buy today than 1 or 3 or 5 or 10 years ago? Again, it IS a better buy today both in terms of fundamentals and in terms of the return to expect over the next few years.
I have only owned shares for the last 5 or 6 or 7 years or so, I can't even remember when I bought my first few. I bought when I first heard about the company. Since then, in my opinion, Ferris has delivered (and then some) on everything he ever promised.
I agree with you jmodified that the chances of getting into any serious trouble is about 0%. I probably should not have even commented but I was surprised when I read your post. Each of us see things in different ways which is what makes the market interesting. I simply see VTSI as a multi-year buy and hold at this point and not worth flipping any along the way due to the relative illiquidity of the stock. There are simply many other stocks where flipping or swing trading or day trading makes more sense - to me.
jmodified, Really? You mess around like that? That is really silly. Avg daily volume is about 400k shares and you put 210k of your own shares at risk because you don't see any risk in being able to buy back lower if your shares get bought? Your logic is nonsensical. Furthermore, you can even get booted out of some of the brokerages (Scottrade, Ameritrade, Fidelity, BAC, many others)by playing those sort of games since it is actually not even legal per SEC rules/guidelines BECAUSE you just admitted you did it in an attempt to "manipulate" the stock. In other words, what you did is legal but only if it was not done in an attempt at manipulation.
Where in Wisconsin? I live a little west of Wausau.
Hi billpr, I agree with you on the need to uplist. It will bring in several more deeper pocketed investors/managers/traders and will result in a much better (higher) valuation for the company.
I did chuckle when you said maybe 5% of the investing public have heard of VirTra/VTSI. Your point is obviously correct but I would venture to say that maybe 1 in 1000 of the investing public have heard of it.