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I doubt that China will do any human trials before toxicity tests are completed. And if they do get completed NNVC may as well do the human trials in Australia.
You keep bring up one implausible scenario after another.
But it is irrelevant. It would be relevant if NNVC had a product to sell today, which they would have had they met their first announced time table for Flucide (or their second), but they don't.
The idea that a flu outbreak will suddenly make investors think about flu cures so snap up shares of NNVC is silly. Everybody with more than $500 to invest is well aware that outbreaks of serious strains of flu pop up on pretty much an annual basis. There is no disagreement among investors that a real cure for the flu would be desirable to have and probably very profitable for its inventor. There is plenty of skepticism that NNVC will ever deliver such a cure.
There will be no flu remedy available for sale from NNVC, oral or injectible, for at least two years. So, no, current flu outbreaks are not relevant to NNVC or its stock price.
NNVC is now, and for the next two years, in the antiviral development business. Not the antiviral selling business. An outbreak of flu this year or next is of no relevance to NNVC because NNVC will have no antiviral to sell this year or next.
Really, it is strange how few people here get that simple fact. An outbreak of flu in China right now is simply of no relevance to NNVC. China could come begging for a cure and NNVC won't have one to sell.
The US government will sit back and wait to see evidence that Flucide actually works in people. Seriously, I don't understand why anybody things that a current flu outbreak has any relevance to NNVC.
Unless Drs Diwan or Seymour made big contributions to Obama's campaign they can not expect Uncle Sam to swoop in and prop up the company.
No trials are going to take place anywhere until the toxicity testing is finished and the manufacturing facility is complete. So any ongoing flu outbreak is utterly irrelevant to NNVC or its stock price.
I have little faith in magical chart technical indicators but so far NNVC's stock price is staying in the range between 0.60 and the low 0.70s. It might get into the 0.50s again but then again, it might not. I'll be happy if it just stays in the current trading range until tox studies are done. Which I don't expect to see until the end of this year or the first quarter of next year.
That 1.10 looks like a misprint. This sort of thing happens quite often.
A PK/PD trial on only 40 patients would be cheap, and if it provided sufficiently unambiguous results to get Breakthrough Technology approval by the FDA that would be ideal. I assume that is NNVC's Plan A. But decisions like this have a high degree of capriciousness, it is a crap shoot. I and other investors must assume we will be stuck with Plan B, which would include full phase II testing followed by phase III testing. Now here is where I can agree with Puffer -- the cost of the phase III trials isn't really relevant, since phase III trials won't be done unless the phase II trials show clear signs of efficacy, and if they do, NNVC should have little trouble finding a partner to fund the phase III trials.
I am surprised by the cost of the Tamiflu trials. Of course we expect that Flucide will be unambiguously better than Tamiflu. It had better be, because obviously NNVC can't afford to do the kind of data mining that Roche did.
No difference between $100 million and $13 million? I hope you're not an accountant. The best way I can think of to estimate the costs would be to look at the costs for the clinical trials on Tamiflu. It's not a vaccine, and neither is Flucide. Do you know what that cost? I haven't been able to find any numbers.
I know Diwan bought the building and NNVC is leasing it. But who is paying for the construction? I had assumed NNVC is doing that. After all, NNVC is the one hiring all the consultants for the project.
That is not true and you know it. My highest estimate was $13,000,000.
In all fairness, the impression I get is that Seymour and Diwan tried hard to find a company that could manufacture nanoviricides, and couldn't find one. So only after exhausting all other possibilities did they decide to undertake the costly step of building their own manufacturing facility.
WorstLuck made the only stock price prediction for NNVC I can rely on.
Nice how you take things out of context. I had a number of $26,000 per person as an average cost of phase III trials for drugs of all types and *halved* it to get an estimate for the flu trials. I simply made an off hand remark that some drugs cost much more than $26,000, namely, $47,000, as was shown for several drugs in the Manhattan Institute paper. You magically transformed this into me saying that Flucide phase III trials would cost "hundreds of millions of dollars". You lied.
I never used $47,000 as the per patient cost of influenza phase III trials. I did say, as an off hand remark, that *some* drugs cost $47,000 per patient in the phase III trials, based upon a paper by the Manhattan Institute. I stand by that. The paper I referenced may be wrong, but that's what the paper said. So who is doing the B.S.ing here?
And while I never claimed that Flucide phase III trials would cost $47,000,000, even if I had, that's still a lot less than "hundreds of millions".
Is there such a paper or not? Does someone have a little nanomachine poking holes into peptidoglycan layers or not? And if there is, why can't you provide a reference?
That is simply an article that explains that penicillin works by attacking the peptidoglycan layer in bacteria. But again, it is pure speculation that we'll have a manufactured nanomicelle that does the same thing. It's not as though NNVC has it all working in a petri dish somewhere. And if we had it it might only be temporarily useful, as bacteria might evolve resistance to it just as they have to penicillin.
The spike up into the high seventies last time (September 2012) was also due to fundamental news -- the announcement of the efficacy of oral flucide. That didn't stop the stock price from then sliding down for many months, getting into the low .40s before some market manipulator spiked it down to a low of 0.32 for a few minutes. When it had that September spike I said words to the effect that people needn't rush in to buy now, they could wait until the price got into the mid 0.50s again. I remember how the usual bulls dumped on me for that one -- how dare I suggest that the rally was not permanent! As it was, I was too optimistic.
We had a rapid spike up into the high seventies, again due to fundamental news. There's no guarantee that history will repeat itself but it might. Frankly, there's no particular reason for the stock to be at any particular price right now. There won't be *real* fundamental reasons for the stock price to stay up until at least the initial clinical trials have been carried out, and faith is replaced by knowledge. The true believers have already bought.
What paper are you referring to?
Apparently so. But human trials will require both. And if the work on the construction goes without a hitch and completes on time but the tox testing starts late and requires 6 months, it could be the tox testing that is the limiting factor on when NNVC can start human trials.
Me, I expect the usual delays on both ends so my seat of the pants guess is that the construction will be the limiting factor.
We've covered this ground before. Suppose you get your nanobacteriacide to attach to a bacterium. Now what? Does the bacterium die, slough it off, or just treat it as another substrate to live on? Remember, unlike viruses, bacteria are not designed to attach themselves to a cell and then disgorge their content into that cell. There are mechanisms by which it may be possible to design nano-attacks on bacteria, but there is no reason to believe they'll be as simple as nanoviricides. This is like people investing in the first start up to produce steam engines and then speculating about how the technology will be adapted to space flight.
nanopatent is right, the plague is caused by a bacteria. So the reporter who wrote about "antibiotic forms of the virus" didn't know what he was talking about. (Antibiotics aren't even used against viruses.)
At this point it is pure speculation that some form of nanobacteriacide will ever be effective against bacteria.
If all goes well the plant will be completed by the end of this year. Well after the toxicity testing should begin. When someone tells you something will be done by "June +/- 2-3 months", the most prudent thing to assume is "September".
So my timeline is: Toxicity testing begins in September, or, if we're real lucky, August. Depending on the sort of tests they have to do, toxicity testing will take 3 - 7 months.
The manufacturing facility is completed in December, if there are no serious hitches.
Go ahead, assume something more optimistic if you want. Nothing in the history of NNVC and its timetables warrants such optimism.
Two meows. But I'm pretty sure they were about getting the cheese macaroni dish to lick, not a projection of NNVC's future stock price.
My cat says that it wants to be fed. It refuses to offer an opinion on the price of NNVC.
CEOs can "control" the price by executing their plans for the company properly. So yes, by next year Seymour could have the price well above $1 by completing tox tests and having phase I trials begin. But he can't control the price between now and the next major step (the start of tox testing) which is many months away. And CEOs can't control market sentiment, as many discovered in 2008. So there really isn't any reason why the stock price couldn't get back into the 0.50s again. I'm not predicting that it will, I'm just saying nobody here should be a bit surprised if it does.
I am happy to hear that Dr. Seymour is frugal, but unless he's willing to come in and buy in large size every time the price nears 0.69 he has no more power to maintain that price as the floor than my cat does.
CEO's and presidents of start up companies tend by nature to be optimistic about their company's prospects. After all, objectively the vast majority of new businesses fail, so if the company founders saw things objectively few businesses would ever be started. So it wouldn't surprise me if Seymour and Diwan estimate higher probabilities of success than I do.
Congratulations on a successful trade. I myself am no good at trading. I've tried, but I just can't judge when a stock is near a bottom or near a top. For me this is a long term speculation.
Today was a down day, but frankly, of no real consequence. Stocks bounce up and stocks bounce down. I don't know whether the recent rally will continue, and we'll see prices above $1 again, or whether it will peter out in the high .70s/ low .80s like it did last time and drift down again. With Seaside no longer selling I wouldn't expect any downtrend to be as severe as last time. But until real news that matters happens there's no particular reason for this stock to keep climbing higher either. So, I'm mainly just waiting to see if toxicity testing actually starts this summer, or at the latest, early fall. If it does, I will raise my own personal probability of success for this stock, but it still won't be in the "near sure thing" category.
It seems that a lot of people here are in a similar position as me -- average prices above 0.50 but below 0.90. And we're still waiting to find out if we will be the family hero or the family goat.
Well lucky you. Good thing you didn't load up two years ago. You'd be down at least 50%.
Probably very, very few of us here got a double. How many of you got in at an average price below 0.40? Probably not many. My position is slightly positive now but far from a double.
I too am under the impression than NNVC is at present only licensed to use Theracour's technology for antivirals. Dr. Feelgood, please correct us if we're wrong.