Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I would say other than buying in oversold rallies, your strategy makes perfect sense. Buy on 5 to 7% dips in a strong uptrend also works.
Watch for vix 45, next time it happens sometimes in the next couple years, you can buy with impunity for the 3 to 6 month time frame.
It is true, that the worst case scenario never works out, as in he end, capitilism works. Long term investing is about buy and hold, but dont buy now and hold. If you bought every time the vix hits 45 you would be rich, even if you lost some money in the crash of 87 and the last drop in 2008-2009,
So that is a no brainer, buy and hold at vix 45.
One more from Barrons, Sept 1 (sorry, but the articles were from the end of august, just before the worst 2 months in the history of the market), was the lead interview said buy bank stocks, as the worst of the news was already priced into the stock price, and the whole financial mess was not as bad as being reported.
Remember, the stock barrons liked the most in March 2000, right at the top of the market, saying it was the ultimate tech stock, was Enron. It was down a bit in the last couple weeks, and was a solid buy!
Not saying Barrons is not a great newspaper, and has good advice, just when everyone agrees something is true, it aint.
I remember the front cover of barrons in july 1990, with bears on the run, article made fun of bearish advisors.
1490 is the most important level for the spx to not close below for more than a day or two. If it does, then a 5 to 7%& has begun. MY gut is that is not going to happen, 1490 will hold. But the next run to a new high might be the top we have been waiting for.
Just my thoughts, would not trade on those, as I have been so wrong lately. but the charts support those numbers.
ARe you in central america now? I have spent 14 years traveling around the globe, mostly in developing countries.Was in a tent most of the time, in remote wilderness. Never made it to panama or costa rica. My ex wife and her current husband want to move there, is it a good plan?
I like to visit the 3rd world and live in America for now.
As long as we close over 1514, the rally will continue. Hate being short, losing my shirt *actually only down 2% of my money this month, not the end of the world.
I pulled out my Barrons from July 14th and August 31, 2008. The front cover in July was about how Housing was bottoming, and credit markets were recovering, and it was a sure bet to buy a house.
Other articles mentioned how bad the credit market had been, but that there was solid evidence that they were recovering, and that there was no chance of a serious crises. this was in both papers, as it was obvious that no financial problem was going to happen just becuase a few sub prime mortgage companies had gone under. The fed had saved the day.
The spx was at 1290 the end of july, which another article mentioned was a bargain, as it had fallen 18% since the top 10 months before, and had been down the required 20% earlier in July, so the bear had been avoided.
I kid you not.
Of course, gold is down enormously today, I would recomend waiting for gld to hit 150 before buying.
Wow, you covered the spy short and sold gold? I am still holding mine, but feel pretty stupid, as have had several ops to get out at much higher prices for sds, but did not.
No reason we can not keep climbing, but eventually will see below 1500 in next couple weeks, but when?
Am in the middle of the worst trade in 3 years, so not feeling good about anything in my life right now.
I did cover a little of my sds at the open, and bought some uvxy at 9.7 just now, spx 1522.65
I expect a 2% correction next week, and I will cover my short then. If it really happens and I time it right, will actually make money, but then again, if no 2% drop, I am up the wrong creek without a paddle.
top of channel today is 1530, to really squeeze all the shorts?
This is the worst trade I have made in 3 years.
Indicators and pattern recognition do not work in a strong trend.
Was going to cover all my shorts at the open yesterday, as was sure we would hit 1522 today, but when I have done that in the past, was just before the market fell hard and fast the next day.
congrats to all who have predicted 1522 for the past month.
Like any indicator, never works all the time. We should have a drop soon, but this market does not fall when the news is bad, and ever goes up big when the news is bad.
eventually every trend ends, the way to make money is to not follow any trend all the way until it ends, as the beginning of a new trend is always sharpt and sudden.
Am feeling like an idiot for not buying and holding when I figured out inn 2009 it was likely we would run back to 1550. Hindsight is always better than foresight at precicting what happens.
learned withing months of investing, that following advisors or analysts was a sure way to lose money. Anyone remember how nflx did recently, after being pronounced dead by almost everyone?
The pattern suggests, and I do trade using pattern recognition, that we get one big down day and then up and away again. If we hold 1500, then we for sure run up higher than anyone on this board thinks in the next couple months, and if 1450 is breached, then the bull is over.
bottom line: Am kicking myself for being so heavily short, but still holding another couple days. Will cover some at 1500, my breakeven point is 1495, love to see lower than that, but not expecting it.
We are all right sometimes.
Is always good to have a plan, but for now the bull is alive and kicking the butt of the shorts, and that is me.
My uncle, who was professor of economics at UC irvine for 40 years, says the economy is going to do well into the fall now. He was predicting a fall by the summer, but is saying all is well for now. He does believe Europe is a mess, and is going to "blow up" by the fall, and that is the key to the market collapsing along with the economy.
Remeber, the sub prime lenders were going bankrupt in the summer of 2007, and the market kept making new highs.
FYI, all the articles about the end of volatility, implies it is about to explode upward.
I remember all too many times the experts claiming the end of something, only for it to come back with a vengence soon after.
Bottom line: Still no typical signal of a major top, so if you are foolhardy like me and keep shorting, dont hold for long! When i do see the bear has started (and when the fed stops pumping, the end will be near), will hold shorts for longer time periods.
bought 2 k of uvxy afterhours at 10.45
holding sds, underwater for now
canceled my buy in uvxy, bought more sds at 47.5. Expecting a 2% correction next week down to 1490, to scare the nervous longs enough to set up another rally. will buy qld if that happens.
New moon monday, usually a good sell, but with a strong trending market, nothing works until the trend finally ends for some reason nobody expects. Meteor hits New York? Market could fall 50% in a day if that happens, when it finally reopens.
Notice they keep saying no danger it will hit the earth, just like they told us dont worry about the subprime mortgage problem! I knew they were nuts about the mortgage problem, but assume the meteor will not hit the earth, but how about taking out a few important satelites!
The most bullish thing markets can do is go up.
Still expecting that 2% correction before another big leg up, will cover my shorts (possibly at a loss) when that happens.
Am looking to buy uvxy if we rally into the close, like it below 10.4. Tried to sell my sds at 48,75 yesterday, and the market makers saw that and held it below that level.
bottom line: Like so many rallies, probably better to just bite the bullet and buy stocks, and not worry about the corrections along the way. Bad news does not seem to hurt this market.
of possible interest:
Volatility on a real basis, as in the daily actual variation between the high and low, just hit the lowest level on a 21dma basis that is has ever been at. IN the past, when it fell to this level, volatility rose, but prices also rose for another couple months.
So instead of shorting, but uvxy, as you will win as long as volatility increases?
I am heavily short, not sure when and if, but still see a drop to rising 21dma soon, and not sure after that.
support for spx"
1496
1490
1475
1450
I would be a strong buyer at 1450, maybe even at 1475, will probably cover by 1490, if not sooner.
Go bears!
buy and hold will make you the most money, if you time the market right. I can time it, but can not buy and hold yet. After 25 years you would think I know better, after buying csco in 93 and selling it (too early) in 2000, for the only big money I ever made in the market.
I would not listen to any of my advice is my advice. Island reversal, cant get much more bearish yesterday, and then look at today.
I was around in april 1987, and the market had a nice correction after a massive move up, setting up the last rally. We are close to that, but when?
Not seeing any clear sell signal, so probably best to stay long.
I of course just shorted, buying more sds at 47.75, will still try to get out of my short by selling my sds on any drop.
Not sure if being long is so smart short term, but into april it is the right side of the trade.
We would be making a massive tripple top, thanks for commenting.
1. I noticed in early 2007 a similarity to Jan 1973, when the last big bear resumed after the first top in 1966.
2. We are experiencing what is known as a broadening top. Look at 1966 to 1982. We would be at 1980, just before the last big dip of the long term bear market. The last bear, from 1929 to 1946, also last about 16 years. that would put this bear dropping into 2016. I bet we bottom next year.
Those how ignore history repeat it. Hubris brings down every powerful organization or nation.
May only be an hour long rally. Shorting it will be the right move, and i will add to my short at some point tomorrow. But am not looking for more than a 3 to 4% correction before another move to new highs. It looks like we go to 1570 before this rally is done.
BTW, I predicted 1570 in 2010, but did i buy and hold? Of course not! I am my own worst enemy.
In 2007 I warned several investment friends who manage rich peoples money about the coming housing crash. They all agreed that we would see a 10% correction, not more, as housing in Sonoma county was such a great deal. I predicted 30%, and they thought I was crazy.
It fell 50% across the board. I predict we only lose 20% next time, so real prices after inflation will be much lower, but the dollar price will not fall as far as it was last year at the bottom.
Stagflation coming, after a nasty recession. The $ will be the only asset that does well.
Uvxy moves big time, a good one for a small bet that could yield big results. Otherwise, the qid is better than the sds, as it moves more. I made the mistake this time of playing the sds.
We are getting some of the early signals of a major top, with a 20% or more correction, but not until april or may is my best guess.
short an inside day tomorrow is my best guess. rising 21dma almost at 1490, lets see if we close under 1490 setting up a sell.
Da fed is pumping fast and hard, and the money is going into stocks for now.
Just covered half my 4k position in sds at 48.95, now my break even on the entire 4k is 49.2 for the other 2k of them. Will put an order in at 49.3 for tomorrow.
If the vix stays over 14 tomorrow, then the 21dma for the vix just turned up.
My gut says this decline stops at 3%, or at 1475. I would think about buying, cautiously, if other indictors line up at that price, but only for a run back to 1513 or so.
Have not been right often the past couple weeks, so best to ignore any and all advice from me for now!
once again, support for spx:
1496- recent lows
1485- rising 21dma
1475 - gap from jan 17
Still expecting a 5 to 7% correction in feb, but would not bet the farm on that one.
It is called an island reversal formation, leaving an island at the top. Very bearish, but this market does not want to go down, so nothing seems bearish anymore.
However, if we go down big again tomorrow, then the first major top is in.
Am still short, of course almost sold all my sds yesterday, but why do that when it was for sure going down on Friday?
Laughing all the way to the poor house.
Expect at least a 2% drop next week, as nobody expecting that, and I get out of my short until we make a clear top, and I expect that may not happen until april.
bottom line: Da fed is pumping, the trend is solid up, better to play the long side on dips, am finally not going to short when we drop a bit next week. I really dont see any major top signals, even if I want to see them.
Kudos to all the longs on the board.
Support for the spx:
1496- recent lows
1490- lows from last week
1480-2% correction and rising 21dma
1450- gap from Jan 1.
My gut says 1450 sometime in february, then enough fear to propel us to new highs. Then sell the farm and short by the end of april.
The world is ending! I have been watching this economic system closely for almost 30 years. Crises after crises. Will the banking system fail at some point, you betcha! Will it pull back from the brink, leaving the middle class screwed again, but the rich without having to pay for their mistake? You betcha!
The fed is fool of what male cows produce in copious amounts when they say they care about employment, but what politician is able to be honest and get elected?
Staying short for now, but not for long.
1. The 21dma on the vix is falling rapidly, but will turn up on friday if we get back over 14. Bullish for now, but says we are reaching some kind of short term sell signal.
2. The 21dma for the spx is super bullish, but we are overextended and due for a 2% correction soon. When is the question.
3. The rsi is at extreme levels, which means at least one more rally to new highs will follow any correction, so buy with assurance when we botton at some point after a 5 to 7% correction in feb or march.
Bottom line: Wish I had never heard of the sds
What is wrong with putting the foxes who ate all the chickens in the coup in charge of getting more chickens?
My uncle says the problem is Obama believes the system was not the problem, and all we needed was minor tweeks to get it working right again, instead of nationalizing B of A and Citi when they were bankrupt, and making a "real" Bank of the United States, which could have instead of giving the money to the banks, refinanced everybodies mortgage, giving all us poor folks more money to spend, goosing the economy, and if we didnt pay, at least the gove owned the properties with eventually they would make money off.
etc, etc. When the next bubble bursts, may god have mercy on our souls. BE prepared to have cash or gold in physical form, get as much of your money out of accounts, etc. I pray will not happen anytime soon.
Interesting fact: Current rally since nov 16th is now 54 trading days long. since jan 1991, there have only been 11 rallies longer without a 5% or greater correction (we only got 3% last month)
RSI has only been higher 4 times in the past 12 years, and 1520 next week would take it up to the highest level, only reached 3 other times in past 12 years.
Parabolic runs up fall even faster.
Feeling better about my short position after reading your post.
I see at least a 3% sell off, and earnings are not that fantastic, but all the market cares about is the fed pumping. If they say anything the market does not like, we go down hard and fast.
Not adding to short for now, might if we run up into close.
Now I get your btfd, funny.
Support levels, which will hold when first touched:
1475 and 1450
21dma at 1460 and going up fast.
50dma at 1429 and going up fast.
We need a 3 to 5% correction, or even bigger, before the final rally. Watch for a volatile last rally, like in March 2000 or Oct 2007 for the final sell signal.
Energizer bunny market: Never stops running. Intc, appl, and now msft all disapoint, and the market keeps going up.
We will see spx 1450 in the next couple weeks, am sure about that. After who knows? Could we run to 1520 first? Why not? BTW, when it looks like it can only go up, it goes down.
Holding the biggest short position of the past 2 years, not too far underwater, ouch.