DJP can not be added to "my stocks" because no stock/ board found but you have a quote and the issue is actively traded. Please resolve the problem.
Thanks, Oddlot

$CRB index is a buy. Best alternative IMHO is DJP. Orders in 40.87 GTC vs 40.77 close.
Oddlot

$CRB index is a buy. Best alternative IMHO is DJP. Orders in for 40.87 or better, GTC vs close at 40.77.
Oddlot

SPX SPY Outlook I: the long term is slightly lower within a wide range. The 4.5 yr MA shows the combined influence of everything longer, such as 9 and 18 year cycles. With the recent high in 2007 of 1576 as an anchor, the channel boundary is approx 1425 on the high side and 750-600 on the downside. IMHO it is suicide to be bullish.

Re posting charts: I always post from a public list. Trendlines and other verbal comments in boxes always go. Good luck.
Oddlot

SPY SDS reinstated SDS with 1.5 units avg cost 15.22. Estimated target SPY 132.50-133.25, and SDS 16.80.
Oddlot

SPY prelim target 132.50-133.25; holding 1.5 units SDS avg 15.22 with est target.16.80.
Oddlot

SPY target update: now prelim 132.5-133.25. Holding 1.5 units SDS avg 15.22, est target 16.80.
Oddlot

If not a fan of trendlines, 135.20 would be well below all support levels.

SPY is at critical trendline. Closing weak from here.would say the bull game is.over.

SPY see prior posted chart for CRITICAL trendline. If broken, the bull.game is over!

SPY prelim target 134.5-135, which would open a whole new can of worms.

A good day! New shorts when they were expected, and a new blanketed black app colt which we were waiting for. Both look good....
Oddlot

Kiy: just a note. The cycle guys are all playing for major lows in early-mid June. My old comments re oil generally match in that major lows due now to slightly later on nominal 18-19 month cycle.
Good trades.
Oddlot

SPY check out the OBV channel break.

SPY check out the OBV channel break.

SDS added 15.306

SDS added at 15.306

SPY SDS holding SDS. Will add 1/2 unit SDS if SPY trades 139.27 or lower.
Oddlot

SPY SDS holding SDS. Will add 1/2 unit of SDS if SPY trades 139.27 or lower.

Holding bearish position via SDS at 15.17 with stop 14.69.

The 26 and 39 week cycles have presumably topped, and the 78 week will indicate a top if/when the trendline parallel to the MA97 is breached. Most observers would consider 136 SPY to be an important low, and a break below that would put us on the way to the June lows, and possibly beyond.

The quarterwave TLs for 26/39 week cycles have been broken and a top in those cycles has probably occurred. A close into new highs would be required to negate that. The quarterwave TL for the 78 week cycle is slightly above the recent lows near SPY 136, and a sustained break of this TL would be very negative, and would probably occur in conjunction with the copper/gold signal.

Holding bearish position via SDS at 15.17 with stop beneath lows at 14.69.

$copper: $ gold shows that recent lows in SPX coincided with the copper ratio, and a break in the trendline for copper/gold will probably signal a significant decline in equities.

ESIC remember my suggestion re this one? See post 20750 on this board, and subsequent posts. Long 4.70, agreed to be acquired and is trading 7.15 now. Closing for nice gain.
Oddlot

Short SPY via SDS this am. 15.17 with stop 14.68.

The 1/4 wave method for 13 week and 39 week cycles indicates top has been made. Violation of trendline for 7 day 1/4wave says top is in for 7 day, and various CCIs are short. May be another small loss in search of decline into early June, but time will tell.

Objectives using CMA's: picture is worth a thousand words. Crossover is halfway through the move.

Alternative to FLD method. If one is trying to ride a move from bottom to top of a cycle of assumed length, try to fit a trendline with the maximum slope of that cyclic curve to the price action. That trendline will keep the (trend+noise) price above it until the trend rolls over.

My estimate for slope is based on the slope of a MA of length 1/4 of the main cycle. Max slope should occur when the price is 3/4 of the way up, or the center of the MA is at the midpoint of the move. As the slope regresses, I do not change the TL slope. If the TL is broken, the cycle is presumed to have topped and that is not negated until we have new highs or the downtrend TL can be drawn, and broken.

A cycle of 5-7 days is often present, and many here refer to it as an 8-day cycle. Using 7 days as the length, on a 10 minute chart, the harmonic set becomes 280/140/70 and while a trendline could be based on any of these MA's if the slope has stabilized, I tend to go with the 70 unless not feasible.

SPY SDS bought SDS 15.20 premkt with stop at 14.69

Bud: re centered MA's etc: You implied that the cycle wavelengths described by Hurst are no longer valid, and that the most recent low to low separation is what should be used. While I use that in one method, I would note that as an example the 13 week nominal cycle remained valid as an average, although the range was extreme, in 2010 and 2011. The periods were 21,7.5,13,16,13,8,and 15.5 for 7 cycles over 94 weeks averaging 13.4 weeks. One can not buy the 13th week without more brass than I have, but other methods that use the 13 weeks as a parameter are a useful start.

Using the "synchronicity theory" for a basis, then a harmonic set for any wavelength should see the CMA's in order at extremes. For example, daily 65/33/17 centered MA's at a bottom should have the 17 under the 33, which is under the 65. This method positively IDs the reference points.

Re CMA's and crossovers, yes you are supposed to see extremes at the time of the crossover but it has not been happening. However, the measurements are still working satisfactorily. Because of the time lag, I tend to use members of harmonic set to ID possible crossover points and measurments from there expecially if the extrapolated main MA hits the potential crossover with reasonable tolerance.

Charts for 2010 and 2011 shown for illustration of the periods.

What is the FLD method? Perhaps I know it by another name.
Oddlot

Does anyone here have opinion on the Hurst method of determining objectives by using the crossover point of centered moving averages for full and half wave lengths? I have used it for various cycles and tend to reduce the amount added to crossover by approx 20%. Various cycles have objectives clustered SPY 140.25-143.50. Another concern is the slope of the 4.5 yr average is flat to lower, implying that the high of 2007 (143.02) should not be breached by much, if any. Any comments?
Oddlot

SPY critical trendline/cycle status.
The 13 week channel has been broken so the next longer cycle is headed down. That would be the 26 week cycle. But the key item is the trendline based on the 1/4 wave MA for the 18month cycle, ie the MA97, and this TL crossed under and is now above the recent lows. If those lows are broken, by SPY or another index or individual stocks, beware and be afraid.

SDS soldd remainder 15.08

SPY trendline

SPY status change: charts

SPY status change.
The 1min obv system is definitely long. The 5min systems are flat and long; SPY closed above the last high, while the 1dev channel has not reversed but the 3.5 day obv range did flip to long. Personally, was.unavailable latter part of day and still hold 1unit of SDS which will go sometime tomorrow. Charts later.

Oddlot

GLD DGP added to long DGP with half unit 52.30.

GLD DGP added 1/2 unit to DGP at 52.30. Holding 1 1/2 units and slightly underwater.

SDS stopped out of two units at 15.28; holding base unit.
Oddlot

SDS stopped out of two units at 15.28; holding base unit.