Short Term Trading Member Forum

[Oddlot]

Bud: re centered MA's etc: You implied that the cycle wavelengths described by Hurst are no longer valid, and that the most recent low to low separation is what should be used. While I use that in one method, I would note that as an example the 13 week nominal cycle remained valid as an average, although the range was extreme, in 2010 and 2011. The periods were 21,7.5,13,16,13,8,and 15.5 for 7 cycles over 94 weeks averaging 13.4 weeks. One can not buy the 13th week without more brass than I have, but other methods that use the 13 weeks as a parameter are a useful start.

Using the "synchronicity theory" for a basis, then a harmonic set for any wavelength should see the CMA's in order at extremes. For example, daily 65/33/17 centered MA's at a bottom should have the 17 under the 33, which is under the 65. This method positively IDs the reference points.

Re CMA's and crossovers, yes you are supposed to see extremes at the time of the crossover but it has not been happening. However, the measurements are still working satisfactorily. Because of the time lag, I tend to use members of harmonic set to ID possible crossover points and measurments from there expecially if the extrapolated main MA hits the potential crossover with reasonable tolerance.

Charts for 2010 and 2011 shown for illustration of the periods.