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I think you are wrong about the information aspect, particularly in Panama Law. However there have been a lot of people recommending it in public and in the press, I think it will ultimately be fine. If you are not comfortable, then you should not buy in at this level. It could go lower or higher in the short term. You could probably buy in at $2.50 to $3.50 per share and still make a decent return over time.
Sounds reasonable...don't forget that according to their presentation they are getting about one ounce of silver to each three ounces of gold to sweeten the pot. Also, in the large Oro de Norte concession their preliminary test showed: Chip rock samples @ 287g/t/Au, Stream Sediment @ 45.75g/t Au, Soil @ 7.8gt/t Au!!
You can figure those numbers when the plant is at full capacity of 5500 tons/day. We should know more about that deposit in another six months.
I just am unable to understand why this stock is not trading at least at a new high of $3.50 or so a share. I probably dwell upon it much more than other investments since it seems like such a 'no brainer', yet there seems to be so little demand. They have a huge concession for 60 yrs. in a stable, solid, country. I just don't get it!!
Stock not widely known= no buyers monitoring, those who own it holding for better days ahead= no sellers offering. Ergo no volume.
Stay awake Lo....Shareholders meeting....Spin-off record date coming up!
Talked to Petaquilla,"...cost of production dropping as project ramps up. Being an engineer with experience here you know it takes a little while, but everything is running normally."
I have no numbers, but with the cost of labor and the closeness of the deposits to the facility they should be very competitive. Looking at the schematics put out by the company you can see things are pretty shallow. IMHO this is a real winner.
Maybe of interest:HEAP LEACHING
Heap leaching was introduced in the 1970’s as a means to drastically reduce gold recovery costs. This process has literally made many mines by taking low grade geological resources and transforming them to the proven ore category. Ore grades as low as 0.01 oz Au per ton have been economically processed by heap leaching.
Heap leaching involves placing crushed or run of mine ore in a pile built upon an impervious liner. Cyanide solution is distributed across the top of the pile and the solution percolates down through the pile and leaches out the gold. The gold laden pregnant solution drains out from the bottom of the pile and is collected for gold recovery by either carbon adsorption or zinc precipitation. The barren solution is then recycled to the pile.
Heap leaching generally requires 60 to 90 days for processing ore that could be leached in 24 hours in a conventional agitated leach process. Gold recovery is typically 70% as compared with 90% in an agitated leach plant. Even with this inferior performance, the process has found wide favor, due to the vastly reduced processing costs compared with agitated leaching.
The cost advantage areas are largely as follows:
1. Comminution: Where as heap leaching is typically done on –3/4 inch rock, agitated leaching requires reduction to –200 mesh. This additional step is typically done with large grinding mills that consume roughly one horsepower per ton per day of capacity.
2. Solids liquid separation steps are not required for heap leaching.
3. Tailings disposal costs are quite high for a modern agitated leach plant. Large expensive liquid containment dams are required. By comparison, heap leach pads can generally be left in place after reclamation.
Disadvantages, in addition to lower recovery of heap leaching compared with agitated leaching, include:
1. The stacked ore must be porous enough to allow solution to trickle through it. There have been many recovery failures due to the inability to obtain solution flow. This is widely experienced when ores have a high clay content. This problem is often alleviated by agglomeration prior to heap stacking.
2. In areas of high rainfall, solution balance problems can arise, resulting in the need to treat and discharge process water.
3. In extremely cold areas, heap freezing can result in periods of low recovery. Operational procedure modifications such as subsurface solution application have reduced, but not eliminated, this concern.
4. Ice and snow melting can result in excessive accumulation of leach solutions. This concern can often be mitigated by use of diversion structures.
Quite frequently, mines will use agitated leaching for high grade ore and heap leaching for marginal grade ores that otherwise would be considered waste rock. A common recovery plant is often employed for both operations.
Certainly not wanting to stir the pot one way or another, but I spoke with someone who has been to the mine and production site recently. He is not an expert in any way, but he was there on the ground. Seemed to him like everything was running normally for a factory operation and at least this absolutely confirms that it does exist and is in operation. No virtual scam here. I wish they would PR an interim production number!
I like the Big Charts site with the one month basic chart that makes it easy to see the open/close and range each day. I have not been able to find a site that will give me real time trading with the volume of each trade as it occurs. It has got to be somewhere. Usually, when some really good or bad news leaks there will be some in the know that react accordingly. Seeing that an hour before it is on the street could really make a difference in a big pop either way. Volume is the key.
Where is it that you are able to tell the number of shares in a unique trade as the day progresses??
Thanks
Sorry...see post #558 I already offered my shares @ $4.00. After Q3 it will cost you more...!
I agree with everything you have said except the part about Panama needing money. This week the Panama Canal became the largest port in the world passing Shanghai and Suez. Thanks to banking, tourism, free trade, and canal revenue they are awash in money. When the new canal expansion is finished they will surpass USA in GDP per person. The developed parts of the country are already world class, skyscrapers,freeways, malls, hotels, etc.
However, since 70% is uninhabited, there will be great need for more infrastructure. Enter PQI. That is still where the best long term value lies. Martinelli is extremely pro-business, and with the US Supreme Court ruling 5-2 against Noriega yesterday, Panama will be very stable.
The rumor was that the previous government wanted and was arranging some side payment to grant the concessions and go ahead for production. Martinelli would have none of that so they cleaned house and he gave them the OK. This of course is just a rumor.
My shares are just not for sale until after the spin-off, and then I would want about $4.00/share. It is always darkest before that golden dawn!! While not around here or PTQ very long...my family came to Panama in 1541. The future looks better here than ever before. China runs the canal, USA protects the country, Germany builds the freeways, and Taiwan builds the bridges and buys the planes. You guys should look at other investments there.
I don't think it will go much below $.40. If you don't sell you don't lose if you believe in the project. If it goes below $.30 before April 15, 2006 I am going to get some more. If it goes back to $.20-$.25 it will wash out all the traders, but not the investors.
25,000oz. of gold for the third quarter could do wonders for the share price. Supposedly they are running at at least 70%. I have heard nothing to the contrary and their PR Communications guy is touting the stock, and said they were running a full capacity!
The Yahoofinance.com web page showed the numbers under the P7Z.F symbol with 810,000+ thousand shares trading yesterday when the average volume was reported as 44,000 shares per day. That would be twenty times the normal daily volume. They were showing some markets in Germany dropping 24+% in one day...so I couldn't understand what the hell was happening. Thank you..
As of this minute Yahoofinance.com is showing 12000 shares traded today and up 6.52%.
The whole bottom dropped out in Frankfurt today. Down 13+% on 819,000 shares when the average trading day is 44,000 shares. I do not know how to find out if that was the result of big blocks or not. Germany always tends to get information before we do, but I don't know why unless they have someone inside. You can verify what I am telling you on Yahoo Finance symbol P7Z.F. I am going to check the other German cities... Berlin down 10+%, Stuttgart down 24+%!!
I see nothing on the news in Panama about any problems. Only that Panama Minera is trying to joint venture on the copper mine with target opening of 2014. Anybody hear anything???
Sorry..I did not mean to offend you. I am not a trader and don't know much about 'flipping' and stuff like that. I fortunately sold stocks late in 2006 and now I am only now testing the waters. However, I do know Panama, so I have invested there over the years. If gold stays up in price, I believe PTQMF will exceed its highest price over the last few years. Once they are finally on stream they will have solid income. The Supreme Court decision on Noriega this morning projects real stability for the future of Panama.
The market with a small 'm' I was referring to is the group of people who are watching and buying this stock. There don't seem to be enough buyers to take the stock of those wanting to bail at even these low volume numbers. My average cost is in the low $.30's so I am not in the 'market' myself unless it goes into the $.20's again. I don't expect to ever sell and hope to get some dividends for income someday.
Tom Byrne is manager of corporate communications,(read propaganda), since late 2005 or early 2006. I do not believe that they are at full production since they really had to work to reach 70%. They made a lot of promises to the last administration in 2006, 2007, 2008, no of which were even close. You need to talk to someone on site who is not a corporate spokes person. I think Mr. Byrne is walking very close to an SEC inquiry with his statements.
My advice is to relax. Things move very slowly at times in Panama and there may be no cause for alarm. If it gets real cheap like last year...buy a big chunk at $.25-$.30 if you believe our future is $1,500.00/oz gold. It is not a scam...the infrastructure is there and so is the mine. The gold...well maybe....personally, I have never sold a single share of Petaquilla.
Go back and read post #483...remember $.50 you were hoping for...well...I think we may touch $0.40 before 4/15/2010. I can find nothing alarming with the situation in Panama. My guess is that the market does not think it is economically viable with a gold price that may drop below $850.00/oz. They might just shut it down for a while if gold retreats instead of losing money. With gold price of $1,200.00/oz it is a winner....at $800.00-$900.00 not so sure.
You would think that they would have said something. By now they should have produced twice as much as Q2, and operations running normally to meet their published production goals. I am surprised they would sit there and let their market cap go down 30+%. With no comment this could go down to test last years lows.
Contacted PTQ corporate in Panama this morning. They are still trying to work out the details for the spin-off and have no idea when the record date will be set, only that it will be "at a later date". My guess is that it will be way after the 2/25/2010 meeting.
Didn't ask, but I assume that the record date posted in Canada for February 21, 2010 probably just related to ability to vote at the special meeting called for February 25, 2010.
PTQ stock dropped about 10% or $0.20 over the course of the fall of 2006. Nothing rapid or quick and probably not related to the spin off at all. The question of the day is: What will the PQI shares be worth that coming spin off day and a year from now?
PTQ is obviously manipulated constantly,(view the dump every day at open), over the long term it looks like a pretty sound investment...sort of a little engine that can...just buy it...put it away for a couple of years...and don't get an ulcer. Should return at least 16% compounded for the next several years. If you watch it every day and try to game it you will get a stomach ache. Deep pockets are pushing it around.
January 8th they declared commercial production which means by December 8th, (start of third quarter), they were at 70% already.
Carrot of PTQI shares should help hold up SP through Feb. 21st the record date. Company presentation showed that PTQI has a lot of irons in the fire. Panamanian Government definitely committed to making this deal work, and PTQI could get some fat contracts. The SP could drift lower, but long term the investment is sound.
Sorry, the only thing I know about geology is there are rocks in the mountains. Being conservative I just do fundamental analysis on what I am pretty sure is there. Reaching the point where there is at least 100% upside near term potential I quit extrapolating. Perhaps more gold is there...they built a big facility in a remote location for only seven years...but then again labor is dirt cheap in Panama and they can move it.
Frankly, the spin off puzzles me, but I am all for it in a contrarian way...gets rid of the gold mine!! I will buy more if the price goes down just to get more infrastructure stock. I believe long term that will be the big company and it is way undervalued in this split.
Roger, over and out. Just had to regurgitate some more about the tree-huggers to get it out of my system!!!
Saw what I assumed was your post on Yahoo. If you want to research ANCON go to www.ancon.org; you can scroll down and click on 'Metals & Minerals' and see a pretty picture of PTQMF's little hole in the hill. Then you can read about all the terrible things caused by mining gold even on this relatively small scale.
You can even buy a T-shirt and stand on the corner with a 55 gal. drum to collect newspapers for recycling to save more trees!! Don't forget the mine is way, way back in the mountains over PTQ's road and a long way to march.
Don't forget all those little people, that benefited from the new all weather highway instead of a 'trail', may just throw some stones at you when you march by...come to think of it, they may let the kids out of the new schools that were built with mine money to help throw stones at you.
ANCON IS NOT A PLAYER IN THIS GAME!!! End of story.
See my post #471...ANCON wants you to live in a mud hut with leaves overhead so you can be at one with nature. Loud but no power and small minority following. Executive Branch very strong in Panama. Martinelli even more so...has 54 seats in National Assembly out of 70; has ability to appoint strong pro-business majority to Supreme Court. Was elected in July 2009 by 60% vs. 33% for socialist. Has approval ratings now above 85%. Education: secondary at Stanton Military Academy, BBA University of Arkansas, MBA from INCAE. Self-made multi-millionaire. Extremely pro-business. In ten years Panama will surpass USA in per-capita GDP. PTQ etc. safer investment in Panama than if it were in USA.
Perhaps my choice of words was poor. You could also say no reason to sell until Q3 reports are in. However, I believe things are right on track and normal for start-ups. I believe that my fundamental analysis based on proven reserves put the value of PTQ at about $1.89/share. That is still a very good number, but if you recall I said that perhaps the real value of this whole deal might be in PTQI.
Remember, Panama is first world in Panama City, but 70% of the country is uninhabited. Once you are away from the city and canal, from the mountains with trout streams in the west to the unconquered jungle in the east, it is more like the Louisiana Purchase back in 1803. Panama has tons of money and Martinelli wants to build infrastructure. They are very happy with PTQI work.
Ten years from now PTQ may just be a fond memory and PTQI a major infrastructure player. They are specifically involved in things Panama has had to outsource before. You think they are proactive in all the local development because they are altruistic? Just looking ahead to future roads, hydro-projects, transmission grids, hotels, ports etc. etc.
I think your %0.50 is more realistic over the next few days. Start looking for that money you said you would find then!! No reason to buy until Q3 is about to be released in April. Until then nothing makes news and it's drift...drift...drift....$2.00 by 7/15/10 and you can write that down. Hasta luego....
Nothing unusual in start-ups. Obviously problems have been eliminated for declaration of commercial production requiring 30 days @70% continuous achieved January 8, 2010. Q3 will show actual reasonable expectancy for normalized production. Traders will run, but investors will stay and accumulate shares on drop of prices. A drop to $0.21 would just be another giant opportunity. The heavy lifting is over.
I took numbers from Panama newspaper articles, corporate presentation, last quarterly report from company,corporate web site on projects, discussions in Panama during month long DD trip 6/09. (Not just for this project.)
To me a 16% return from this point in time looks pretty sound, but I wonder if I am missing something. My average cost is $0.39/share, but, 16% looks very good to me after this past year and gold is gold. If it ever goes above $2.00/share, I'll be very nervous.
The best of all worlds would be more proven recoverable discoveries, that would extend life for assets in place, and/or an economically feasible way to leach out the low content ore. The company is exploring that but they say economies are not there yet.
twenty seven cents/share based on expected production at 100,000 oz/yr, gold @ $1000.00/oz taking out taxes, royalties, local commitments, costs of production @ 50%, and life of seven years. twenty seven cents/year x seven years of life.
ANCON like Sierra Club, Nature Conservancy, PETA, ELF, (As they say in Texas big hat, no cattle) ANCON still mad because we converted from horses to autos!
Entry shows February 25 as date for 'special' meeting, therefore the associated record date of February 21 probably relates to spin off. I could not find anywhere a company commitment to January 14th for Q2 reporting. If gold production was great it would have probably been included in commercial production PR. Q3 may give data on expected flat quarterly returns to be expected during life. With seven years there is not much inducement to expand production unless other deposits nearby are actually there.
800mm x76%(less royalty & tax)=608mm/7yrs = 86mm/2 (related production costs @50%)= 43mm (expected return)/160mm OS =.27/sh x 7 = $1.89/sh not discounted for future inflation. Potential return is 16%/yr (1/7) based on SP of .89 with earning stream not discounted to present value. Anyone see anything wrong with this analysis?
Whether you dig it fast or slow 608mm is all there is. Could be PTQI will be best long term part of deal.
Royalty is top line oriented at 4% of gross revenue. Income tax is different animal coming after EBITA wherein expenses, depreciation, wages, etc. come into play. National Assembly is in the middle of debating changing entire tax code and going with a Forbes like flat tax.
Not very computer literate...Statements are out from MICI,ANAM,ANCON, including quotes from Trade Minister Roberto Henriquez and Javiar Arias. Full details of new deal openly discussed and disclosed in Panama. Escucha el radio o TV no mas.
All over news in Panama. Source: Rafael E. Berrocal for La Prensa
Announcement ten minutes ago in Panama confirming green light to PTQ with 2% increase in royalties to Gov. & two year tax deferment.
There is demand out there to absorb this volume without a collapse.
Production numbers must be on the street.
See commercial production PR mine runs 24/7. No 20 workdays/month.
Thank you Mr. lojiko for your response. As to DD OK?? I have been to Panama four times this year altogether about 45 days. I have done DD in Chepo, Las Tablas, Colon, and Panama City at the Chamber of Commerce across from the Cuban Embassy, and several other places. I am an engineer and first worked in Panama in 1956. My family came there in 1541. I was hoping to have some intelligent thoughtful conversations when I happed to find this board.
Please excuse my intrusions and ill considered questions. I will not intrude into your space again. Perhaps I'll see you at the meeting, perhaps not. In any case good luck and best wishes.