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I can give 100 reasons we go up, or down next week. System says to stay long, gut says short. gut is usually right, but too early. AM waiting for a new high before shorting.
BTW, appl chart is solid down pattern. When can you remember a market leader dying while the market marches higher? I appl a forerunner, or about to explode to upside to catch up with the market?
BTW, about 3 out of 4 days I have no idea what will happen the next trading day, why I am out of the market most of the time.
BTW, 21dma, 50dma, and 200dma all in uptrends, shorter durations (and current price) over longer trends, which is all super bullish.
Not saying correcion could not start here, but the bull is alive and well until it isnt.
Watch for large tick readings at the close to signal reliable sell signals. That is when traders are too aggressive buyers. Same for big negative tick readings. Funny, but remember super high negative tick readings at several important bottoms, interday and final.
Over plus 1200 at end, or over 1400 interday is sell, sell, sell.
Why Klic? BTW, was one of my favorite trading vehicles back in the mid 1990's, so know it well. Then the qqq came along,and stopped speculating in individual stocks, but still invest in them when it makes sense.
Does not make sense to invest in any individual stocks right now, as the big bad bear is coming.
Thanks. BTW, price action is becoming more volatile, which is a good indication this could be the last rally of the bull market from 2009. If we can run quickly up to 1550, with several big down days along the way, sell the farm and short the market.
I have been waiting since march 2009 for a top, this could be it. However, if we fall to 1450, then the final top could form like the broadening top in 1990.
Gold normally corrects 30% often in a major bull market. In stocks, over 20% is a bear market, but in commodities, 20 to 30% drops are just part of the norm.
I think gold may fall to 1200, I will sell the farm and buy gold if that happens. I personally think 1500 will hold, but we will see.
I believe the put call is saying higher prices before any correction.
weekly sentiment is flashing a top is near, but I have seen it take months for that indicator to work, and it started flashing sell 6 weeks ago.
Bottom line: Too much fear in the options players to prevent another rally to new highs soon.
ONe of the most reliable indicators for identifying a coming correction, or that a rally is for real, is to look at how the market does the first hour and last hour of the trading day. when it consistently goes up the last hour, and often down in the first hour, that is extremely bullish, as the weak hands dump in the morning, and the strong hands buy at the end.
Opposit for going up in the morning, down in the afternoon. That was the norm in sept-Nov 2008, with lots of moves inbetween.
My system says to buy, my gut says to short, so am not doing anything for now. May short friday, if we get to 1533.
Makes sense for a drop on sequester-italy, but dont fight the fed.
Last, RSI was so high last sept, and pretty high recently, they both say another new high is a sure thing before the bear strikes. So spx 1533, or even 1570 before a bear is likely.
So why not play the upside? One sure way to lose money is to play the upside at the end of a bull market, as individual stocks are hard to predict, and the top will come quickly.
Being a momentum player, with tight stops, is the way to go for now.
So, the govt was shut down Nov 14 to the 18th in 1995, and DEc 16 to jan 6.
There was a 5% correction both times, but each time the shutdown ended, the market took off fast.
So, maybe we get a 5% correction finally, down to 1450?
Sold my aapl at 447, my order to buy more at 443 did not get filled even though the price got hit.
Am undecided what to do: Go long or short.
So best to do nothing for now. May short at spx 1530, lets see if we can get there.
Going to check what the market did when the gop closed down the govt in 1996. I think the market went up anyway, but the economy was strong and growing fast then, opposit to today.
Going to dump my aapl tomorrow, think we either jump to 1550 or fall to 1450 in the next couple weeks, and since I dont know which, better to wait till one of those events happens, and then jump in.
News could sink stocks, but the fed is not going to allow a big drop for now.
Italy? Who cares! SEquester? Who cares? FEd printing money as fast as they can? Buy stocks!
Another run to 1530 or higher is my best guess into next week. After that, we go down hard and fast.
Looking to short, bought a little appl at 443, downside is 350 if all goes to hell, and it will keep paying the dividend, upside before the end of april is 500.
I am buying a little, time to short!
tHE RSI pattern is similar, as is price action, to the top in early march of last year.
I would go long a panic selling event, down 2% tomorrow, and hold for spx 1550. Know it sounds nuts, but it is likely. Of course, that so many were worried about a flash crash today, meant it would not happen.
I will for sure short next time the market gets overbought. Will take about 2 weeks of rally to set that up.
I suspect another down day tomorrow, which if we hold 1470 is a buy signal.
Super high trin twice in a week, buy signal. Not saying a new bull rally, just a rally back to new highs to scare all the weak hand bears to cover, and the bulls to jump back in, setting up the real correction.
predicted we would fall 2 to 3% then rally to new highs. Of course, I did not follow that advice myself.
Likely we rally up now, with more volatility.
If we rally quickly, then could be a new high. If slowly, then probably we dont make a new high before it is time to short.
Nothing is certian, everything is possible.
gaP ON jan 17th at spx 1475. That could be first target in morning. However, so many computers looking at how we have broken recent support, if they all go SELL, look out below.
Insane financial system, based on computer trading rules by large firms who have no interest in the long term investment realities.
Am looking to buy appl if we see major minus ticks in morning. Better to buy qld if you are a short term trader, appl if you prefer to invest for the last rally.
Just my ideas.
Possible flash crash tomorrow, but think fed will not allow it.
We closed under major support, very scary.
We got a major selling climax, big negative tick, trin up 34%!~, almost 4 times as many down as up stocks, and trin almost 3.
Sell any rally in the morning tomorrow, unless some kind of good news is sparing another rally.
bottom line: Major concern as 21dma has turned down on spx, and the 21dma for vix is rising, both negatives. But another rally to new highs before the end of april is still the most likely outcome.
if 1490 does not hold, we could see a flash crash tomorrow, especially if we get bad news.
This is not a good buy op for the buy the dips people.
We are not oversold enough for a good buy op, but oversold enough if the bulls are still in control to rally.
I was right about us topping, but did not make money. Again, best for me to re-group and wait for the next op. The worst thing to do as a trader when you make a mistake is to try and make it back quickly. Will bite you every time.
Now is when I should be super bearish, and of course my order to double up my short, buing qid at 27 missed by pennies.
Sold my qid for 27.8, not sure what is next, though the pattern is as bearish as you can get short term. Will check numbers later, but expect 1490 to hold, although possible we drop to 1450 is GOP refuses to go along with anything, and if bad news from italy or spain, look for another flash crash with the optimism so high.
Dont let the trading drive you crazy. Better to stand aside Like I am if you lose confidence and are not trading well, like me!
put 25% of my money into qid at close, 27.6
Will cover if we drop monday. I still think we go sideways and then up again. But if we go down big time monday, then the correction has begun.
Will also short more, buying more qid, if we have a big up day monday.
Bottom line: Fundamentals going south, but markets ignore that while fed pumps and pumps.
good point, am trying to buy qid at a bit better price before the close today. But am not going all in, like I did with sds and uvxy. BTW, stay away from uvxy,unless your time frame is a day or less
Just talked to my uncle. He says the weekly LEI, which has been very good at predicting market moves within a couple weeks, has turned down sharply, concurent economic indicators have turned down, housing looks dreadful, and his wife who is a leading expert on politics (my uncle was one of the economist on the team looking at why the crash of 1987 happened, and he said the govt was the one who bought large numbers of futures tuesday morning, which prevented the nyse from shutting down), she says the gop will allow the sequester, and likely will stop congress from not letting it go into effect that end of march.
I should be selling the farm and shorting, but am waiting for a big up day monday, then I short all of my money buying the qid.
the end is nearer than I thought, but I would not count out a rally to 1570 before the big bad bear bites by the fall.
I do not think gold or silver bottomed today. I also see another day of downside, but it will not be big, mayber 1490 to scare enough people to set up a rally back to 1530, at which point the selling will intensify.
Just my thoughts, and what my trading plan is.
A classic sellling climax, at the end of a big decline, is:
twice as many declining issues as advancing on nyse.
trin over 2
cboe put call ratio over 1.3, and equity over 1.
We got two of them yesterday, but sometimes when you get a selling climax at beginning of decline, says a bigger decline is coming.
I need to stop trading for awhile, which is the best idea when I seem to not be making smart moves.
BTW, the high tick on tuesday's close was a great sell signal.
Isee was down to .8 yesterday, cboe is at 1.1 right now.
If we continue down today, that is 2 straight days of climax selling, which will lead to a small rally, if not a bottom.'
High trin has persisted for months, reading of 3 yesterday says big rally (2%) coming by early next week.
Oh, full moon madness, is on monday next week.
Again, dont listen to me, I just losst 1.5% of my money shorting.
Am still holding my gld, think we run up big into the summer, not sure after that.
Too much money being printed, eventually will flow into gold and silver.
You could be very right, so not a time to be buying, but I think the markets are not worried about the govt response, but feel that eventually there will be a compromise of some sort worked out.
major support between 1485 and 1495 for spx. Fed still pumping, economic news still positive, my gut is we dont drop more than 3%, then another rally up to new highs, and that is the top.
check the top in March of last year for a price pattern like that, where the first drop held at previous lows, then another big rally.
Of course, this time could be different, and we have a 5% correction first, like the pattern in the top for feb 2011.
I covered my short in sds just now at 48.4.
I lost 1% of my trading money in the last 2 weeks on this trade.
Am feeling like my trading has been poor lately, as if I had held the uvxy until today, would have made 2% on my trading moneyif I sold it right now, instead of yesterday.
Bottom line: We got a 2% correction, the first small rally failed, so me still have the possibility of dropping to 1450, but my gut is we first rally up back to 1530 before a correction of more than 3%.
will send another message after I run all the numbers and can say more.
ooops, meant support at 1508, not 1598. I expect a rally in the morning, followed by another drop to 1508, or 1496, not sure which.
Got out of my uvxy postition, never buying that again, as it is a loser unless you time it exactly right.
dumped my uvxy at 10.2, lost $10. Could have held on a bit longer and made a bit of money. Never buying it again, would have done much better buying sds.
Well, looks like we finally got a sell signal, off the high tick yesterday.
spx support this week:
1522
1514
1598
1495
If we break 1495, then this is an important top. Otherwise, all we are experiencing is a pause in the up move.
tick +1020 yesterday was a good sell signal, at least short term. My gut is we fall into tomorrow morning, not much beyond that, which is not good as am still heavily short.
Gold will hold at recent lows for awhile, but 1200 is possible later this year, when the recession hits hard. I see 3000 in a few years, but not anytime real soon.
Feeling dumb holding onto my gld, have made as much on the hedges the past couple months as i have lost on buying it, avg price 156.
Bottom line: Looks like a blow out in gold, time to buy soon for a run up for a couple days, then wait for the next dip to buy for at least a decent 10% run before the final drop into the financial panic later this year.
Closing tick of plus 1220, highest I have seen in a year. Normally is a sell signal, but dont fight the fed!
I should know better, as was hurt badly in 1995 by just the same kind of market, with the fed printing money, but then the economy was booming too.
Lesson to be learned: take small losses, as they can turn into really big losses if you are wrong.
Bonds still worried about the economy, and the fed is keeping rates down for now.
Inflation is coming, but when? The fed printed massive amounts of money in 1980, kept rates low for the time but in 2 years rates doubled.
Problem is the economy is so weak, that all the money being printed will just find its way into rich hands, and the poor will not be helped at all.
I would not be shorting bonds yet, but when we get the next big bear, then is time to short bonds.
Will keep covering everytime we have high trin on the day, as night follows day, the markets are up the next day. Ouch.
This is the first time I have ever seen the market go up for this long without at least a 2% correction at some point. So is this a new paradigm, with the fed printing so much money the market can only go up?
I feel so stupid still holding my short. Had so many ops the past couple weeks to take a small loss and just wait for a clear sell.
Once again we are major overbought, but that has not worked as a sell in months, so why would it now?
If you are not short, dont do it. Wait for a clear signal from the options, which is not happening. The weekly sentiment is flashing major decline soon, but:
When normal signals dont work, beware.
I agree that when the market tanks, gold tanks too.
Of course, the one long position I have is in gold.
The above proves that doing the "safe" thing, which investing in gold a few months ago looked like, is always the wrong thing to do.
Eventually, gold will rally again, but 150 or even 120 on GLD is likely, and it could be soon. Remember, gold tanked in 2008 when the market tanked.
weekly sentiment as reported by Barrons is about as extremely bullish as at any time in the past. IN the past (and of course history never repeats itself) this has led to bear markets, or at the very least, a correction within 3 months which drops the markets below where they were when the extreme readings happen.
So buying now, unless you are a short term trader makes no sense. Obviously, price action says higher highs ahead, and I am sure we get at least one more rally to new highs after the next 5 to7% correction, but long term investors should be selling, not buying now.