Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
ramsey, agreed,
but there is a long ways between the IBM activation rate (my guess 0.1%) and what I'm calling for a DELL/Envoy activation rate (10%). That would be a 100-fold improvement. I don't consider that to be particularly scroogish. Indeed, I think 10% is very bullish were Wave to be so fortunate as to have it occur.
I think my Weitek/VESA examples are very applicable to the IT/procurement level of things as it pertains to the notion of lumping in very cheap things “just in case”. I very recently bought a new machine from a government supplier for a government position (not necessarily the US you understand). My IT essentially forced all the cheap little bells and whistles, just in case. My machine is slated for automatic 3yr replacement, they want it to work until then, they don’t care about a couple of quid here or there, some of these things are sold to secretaries, some are sold to janitors, and of course the Director has one. I suspect not all will enjoy the same rate of TPM activation, but importantly that the purchase of a $2 option means little initially (y e2005).
You folks all know I’m right on this, you just don’t want to say so.
Regards,
Dig Space.
24601, I have gathered for some time
that you place considerable burden on the voicing of opinion, indeed perhaps on even HAVING an opinion. So it goes. I vett opinion to spur counter-point. It serves me. I think it is good.
Regards,
Dig Space.
rachelelise, the “option” is a none-issue IMO,
Remember the VESA local bus, the slot was a must have (but cost next to nothing) and saw very little use or uptake
Remember the Weitek coprocessor, the slot was a must have (but the cost next to nothing) and saw very little use or uptake
A TPM would not be the first capability built into a MoBo where the IT purchasers spend the buck or two per item "just in case". I argue that those "in case" events will be very low in 2005, around 10% if Wave is lucky.
I'm not talking about 2006 or 2007. I'm talking about 2005. The point is, when the big subscriptions come along (in 2006 and 2007) I doubt Wave will be so alone.
In the end Wave is PC software (at least for now) and there is a big grave for 99% of such aspirants in a field south of Woodenville (just north of Redmond).
Regards,
Dig Space.
Last Financing and Wave bash-ability;
Wave placed the last significant financing ABOVE, read it again *ABOVE* the 20DMA, 50DMA, and 100DMA. It would have been nice to see the last two financings to be a bit less of a mauling, but this financing is far from as disappointing as those more recent.
I suspect the financier has already bagged the 50%gain arb opportunity, or at least a chunk of it. It calls into question whether both the new money and the older money Warrants all had room to play at once or not.
But fools be fools, this has been a good week for Wave Systems, moreover there are signs that maturity is filtering its way into Wave management ... refreshing to say the least.
While it’s far from appropriate to say this, but as the cowardly disingenuous basher that I am, I will state that I am now buying on weakness.
I’ve always called it how I see it, and I believe that current circumstances afford me the welcome opportunity to step away from this place for a while.
Good luck folks. It will be needed IMO, I still believe MSFT is planning on “embracing and extending” Wave which means to conquer, eliminate, and own. Again, good luck.
And don’t get silly, this is far from signing off, but definitely moving to part time (to the pleasure of most no doubt).
Regards,
Dig Space.
24601, with respect, you would have to admit that
"innumerable" is an adjective run amok, indeed a Spin all its own.
Regards,
Dig Space.
Doma, sorry if I over interpreted your content,
You said:
“at around $10 revenue per copy to Wave” [price/active seat]
“Dell only has to sell 1 million TPMs …” [total seats]
“to give Wave $10 million ..” [price/seat *total seats*X(active/total)=revs]
solve for X
X= 100%
In lay terms you said Dell sells a million TPMs, and at 10 bucks a seat, Wave bags $10 million. The ONLY way is through 100% occupancy. It’s not stuffing words in your mouth.
Unless, of course, you attended the Feeney course of finance! LOL!
(bottom line, it is what you said, get over it, most know you know better and likely understand that in *2005* Wave will be lucky to get a 10% activation rate).
Regards,
Dig Space.
24601, are you asking, you know,
like ... in what room?
now there you go again,
100% of TPM machines are NOT going to buy Wave's ETS and other products will compete for this space, and they will do it soon.
Wave simply will not book $10 million in revs on 1 million Dell TPM machines. Period.
I yield one bullish moment and you folks go completely gaga.
Definitely time for me to return to reasoned skeptic mode.
Regards,
Dig Space.
guvna, no doubt, the authorization to allow cobranding with the most respected name in PCs is not made by a shipping clerk. I'm digging in my heels.
Regards,
Dig Space.
mbledug, a guess:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4837675
Perhaps fumes to the end of Feb. I certainly expect another placement well before then.
Regrads,
Dig Space.
cpa,
Wave thought long ago that EDS/LTNX was going to pave the way to .gov
Now they appear to think that Envoy/Dell will pave the way to .gov
If memory serves Wave's own efforts to become a .gov supplier have hit a number of stumbling points. There are folks that do this for a living, Envoy is one of them, and Dell is clearly comfortable with Envoy distributing Dell products, and Dell is clearly comfortable with having the company founder's extremely well guarded and highly respected last name appended to the Wave ETS.
Wave has Warrants that come into the money at:
$1.15 and $1.30 (about 2 million shares if memory serves for $2.2 million),
and other warrants at $2.62 (a million shares) and likely others that have slipped my mind.
This latest rally was of sufficient volume to lock in the $2.2 million dollars at essentially twice the price of the 60 cent predictions that were being tossed about.
Given the notion that Wave will receive in Q4 (although not book) $340K from Q3, it appears Wave can reasonably expect have $2.5 million in new money by early Jan. This excludes any other revenue and expenditures during Q4. At the end of Q3 Wave had $1.7 million in cash and other assets worth $5.1 million. Wave is burning about $1.5 million a month.
Wave stands a reasonable chance of starting the New Year with something like $3 million in assets. Any de novo revenue would positively impact this number.
If news moves Wave towards $3 then at some point the $2.62 warrants might come into play. The Warrants are good till late 2006 (again if memory serves).
So it is still fumes, but the Dell branding rally was a good thing.
Regards,
Dig Space.
Some decent shelf reading:
http://www.realcorporatelawyer.com/faqs/shelf.html#B10
What is a "takedown off the shelf?"
A “takedown” is an actual offering of securities from a shelf registration statement that has already been declared effective. In other words, when an issuer registers securities for a delayed primary offering, the decision to sell a portion of those securities in the future is referred to as a "takedown off the shelf."
In a typical delayed shelf offering, a certain number of securities or dollar amount is registered through means of a "base prospectus," also referred to as a "core prospectus." This prospectus will contain only very general information about the issuer, the securities being offered and the plan of distribution. See more at
“What is a ‘base’ or ‘core’ prospectus?”
Detailed information about the offering such as the type of security, its terms and the underwriter is provided later in a prospectus supplement or post-effective amendment at the time a specific deal is planned. See more at “What is a ‘prospectus supplement’?”
What is an "at-the-market" offering?
An at-the-market offering is an offering of securities into an existing trading market for outstanding shares of the same class at other than a fixed price on, or through the facilities of, a national securities exchange or to or through a market maker otherwise than on an exchange.
An example is an offering in which common stock is sold by an underwriter by means of ordinary brokerage transactions (as opposed to a block transaction) on the NYSE. Such sales would be priced through a series of pricing periods each lasting consecutive calendar days. During each pricing period, the sales price would be determined by taking the average of the daily high and low prices for each trading day.
Typically, an underwriter does not have to be identified in the core prospectus for a shelf registration statement. However, an “at the market” offering must identify the underwriter in the registration statement. If the underwriter is not known at the time of effectiveness, a post-effective amendment—not a prospectus supplement—must be filed at the time of the takedown.
Source: Rule 415(a)(4) of Regulation C. The requirement to identify an underwriter in a pre-effective or post-effective amendment in an "at the market" offering is found in the SEC's Manual of Publicly Available Phone Interpretations under "D. Rule 415", interpretation #7.
What is an "unallocated" shelf registration statement?
An unallocated shelf registration statement only registers a dollar amount of various classes of securities in an offering without identifying whatthe specific dollar amount registered for each class of securities they are. Only issuers and their affiliates that are primarily eligible to use Form S-3 or Form F-3 may file an unallocated shelf registration statement. This is also known as a “kitchen sink” registration statement.
In unallocated shelf registration statements, all that is required to be disclosed is the types of securities that may be sold. The specific type of security and amount to be sold is disclosed at the time of a takedown in a prospectus supplement. See more at “Can a shelf registration statement be converted into an unallocated shelf registration statement?”.
Source: SEC Release No. 33-6964 (October 29, 1992) adopted the unallocated shelf procedure.
looks like someone just dumped a qtr million shares. eom
DELL/IBM and .gov
Is it not the case that the .gov PCs are now essentially from DELL instead of IBM but that the services are still largely from IBM?
That, at least, is the information that I have. So, e.g., Fed employees use Notes and have their email come off IBM servers, get their virus protection from Symantec, and have trouble shooting outsourced to IBM even though the three-year PC cycle has migrated to DELL PCs. At least, that is my impression of how it works at some of the big .gov agencies.
It will be interesting to see what happens as TPMs being to deploy in the gov space and whether the IT folks use DELL’s recommendation, or whether IBM puts together a services solution for the .gov (which may or may not include Wave).
The last pin to fall IMO is IBM throwing in the towel on their TSS efforts and migrating to a Wave-CSP-enabled vendor TSS or NTRU+Wave.
Its not over till its over.
Regards,
Dig Space.
O.K. I've thought really hard,
I simply cannot find one iota of "something negative" about this latest development. Its quite striking.
Regards,
Dig Space.
Snackman, you are in error,
I am NOT inclined to think the lawsuits have much merit, I am more inclined to suspect the SEC investigation MAY have some merit, unlike many I am NOT inclined to think an SEC finding against Wave would *necessarily* substantiate the lawsuits.
I still think having half a dozen beat reporters write stories about Wave and TC and point out these affairs is a public drubbing.
If you don't think so, I'm fine with that. I suspect PLENTY of people would regard the affair as a public drubbing. I hope Wave senior management is among those that consider it so.
None of this means much today, but the contrast to the INTC/IBM PR onslaught is noticable, and I believe I sensibly commented on that.
Regards,
Dig Space.
Snackman, I consider a dozen lawsuits and an ongoing SEC investigation AND its being appended to many trade news stories a public drubbing for a penny stock. You don't.
So it goes.
Regards,
Dig Space.
(and Snacks, mine was a positive post suggesting that perhaps the folks at Lee have improved in their handling of Wave affairs).
bertha, my hunch is Dell wants a full-blown governement supplier chain as the product is to be sold seperately.
Have the boys at Wave finally grown up?
A very important development released only as a 8-K. I, for one, feel remarkably refreshed by the lack of hype. This rally might actually hold.
Only time will tell, but perhaps the dozen lawsuits and the SEC was the sort of public drubbing these folks needed to clean up their act.
It certainly makes it loook like Dell's TPM offering will be seen soon, and that Dell appears to have picked the box with Wave on it off the shelf. The number of Dell machines sold to the .gov perhaps explains why Envoy is in the middle of this relationship.
Regards,
Dig Space.
OT Snack,
just the opposite, wandered in for 12 seconds of ill-advised distraction. Now its back to doctors, schools, brokers, lenders, lawyers, insurers, kids, moms and auto-frikin-mechanics.
Pleeeennttttyy of time.
Ciao
cmf, I seriously believe Wave senior management and board to be in deep and (again) serious deliberations right now. Seriously. And I believe the items on the agenda are:
1. performance bonuses
2. non-performance bonuses
3. 2005 salaries.
Funding the company will likely wait until after the important things are covered.
Regards,
Dig Space.
wavxmaster, there are many here that get a serious bee in their bonnet if you say what you said:
"Wave and NTRU seem like the glue that offers TPM interoperability"
My suggestion of same caused a firestorm (you know the standard stuff "liar" "YSMF" etc).
The loyal long consensus is that Wave (and only Wave) is the glue that offers TPM interoperability, that NTRU is much more a "molehill than a mountain", that "anybody's TSS will work with any TPM" etc (with one dissenter saying that NTRU's TSS provided a TDDL and TDDLi goodies that contributed to interoperability, did involve work, and does have mareket value ... although the TCG spec apparently asigns the TDDL etc to the TPM supplier, NTRU has apparently provided such in their TSS, or something to that effect).
Regards,
Dig Space.
Wave is looking pretty pithy on rather low volume.
Whatever was going on seems to have abated.
Very Wave-like.
barge your migration to the notion that
Trustzone is now the determinant of Wave success is very very SKSish (SkiSS usually being the first to abandon last quarters holy grail). I see it as an admission by you of what I have been saying for moons, that Wave will play a small important role in the TCG space. Again, small, but important. In order for pie in the sky 7 splits in 7 years to happen, anybody really paying attention realizes that Wave fantasy of 20 bucks per TPM PC is just a dream, so in good Wave fashion you've jumped on the next new bandwagon.
You you the first to jump OFF the Zaptronix wagon??
Curious how one-by-one the loyal longs come to my point of view. LOL
Your Friend,
Dig Space.
precisely! (for once)
My bet is a significant supporting role, worth around 4-5 bucks a share.
Wave simply lacks the management to do more IMO.
But 4-5 bucks is a long ways from here, and will serve the high risk portion assets well.
Regards,
Dig Space.
group hug!! /e
Time for new revenue predicitons,
so:
Q2 6k
Q3 44k
Q4 ?
Q1'05 ??
Seriously, enough with the visibility of a Berger on the Mountain ... who's up to sticking their neck out on revs.
Everybody has e-shute's chart, we all know about the $340k in booked deals - deferred rev.
Also, what are the bullish bearish break points on Q4 revs?
How 'bout $90k revs and another deferred statement around $580k?
Regards,
Dig Space.
I'm with RWK on this,
the massive afternoon surge in volume in green made the call just plain bad, FWIW.
more importantly, why does the trend line
project a lower share price of -26cents.
Clearly the modeling is operating well outside of its area of utility.
I've never bought a stock for negative money, never sold one for negative money, and any "chart" that spits out negative money number need be spit out IMO.
The chart fails to reasonably incorporate the asymptotic nature of ZERO as it pertains to equity values, and were it not for the selective use of the INTC pump, would just be a long term chart starting at 80 cents and going back to 80 cents. Yawn.
But I could be wrong, maybe it will hit -26 cents a share, …. one heck of an arb opportunity as nobody would expect it!
Todays close .89 on softening volume. Oh well. eom
huh, is Wave in the TSS business?
"This is probably an advantage to Wave as I doubt they would continue long term to build their own software stack but chose to buy vs build. (SKS)"
(is not Wave's niche providing interoperability across a diversity of TPMs/TSSs, is it not to Wave's advantage that such diversity PERSISTS ... even though we all know it will not)
Regards,
Dig Space.
zen, you appear to subscribe
to the notion that the truth is a large grey area. You should perhaps take note of the fact that western civ is being lead precipitiously towards a much more black-and-white and less forgiving interpretation of truth than that to which you refer.
Regards,
Dig Space
Referring to things that FAILED to come to market as being the first of anything requires considerable doses of assumption.
(Just) another in the Journal of Negative Results.
Regards,
Dig Space
barge, I'm getting confused …
Does you and awk circularly (re)posting dated cut-and-pastes of your own previous cut-and-pastes constitute DD, or is it just prohibited repetition?
Regards,
Dig Space.
cpa, could you email me your email address (a fait acompli) at
btk0077@yahoo.com
Regards,
Dig Space ... and old guard skeptic.
sure, I agree with you, the Ihubbies are easily good for 900 thousand shares of Wavx above the average volume ... or ... I could be smokin what you are smokin.
Regards,
Dig Space.
yaya/hawkshaw
It is my understanding (hearsay) that Wave would have to file SEC docs to just plain sell into the market. It is my understanding that this is not the general purpose of a shelf. It is my understanding that to use the shelf that way would normally involve a secondary public offering with subscription etc in a manner rather similar to an IPO. It is my understanding that a shelf such as what Wave has filed is really just a balnket for what they hope to be one or more PPs or strategic buy-ins or equity swaps. It is my understanding one miught think of it as being pre-qualified for a loan, you can simply act more or less immediately in capital markets/exchanges.
That is my understanding. I suspect 24601 could weigh in on this and that cpa could be usefull, but cpa is really rabidly cynical about all things Wave and I believe it blurs his professional judgement.
Heck,I'm cynical, but one in the end has to try to control one's emotions (IMO).
Regards,
Dig Space.
PS guvna: "no posting in a couple of days?" Contrary to the SPIN of so many loyal longs around here ... most have a life, and DO take holidays and actually spend time with family. Reviewing posts seems to indicate to me, that those who bash the skeptics most are the ones posting 24/7 through America’s finest holiday. Fancy that. Lamb? No, ‘Twas Turkey on my table. How about yours?
good post, eom
Will you be crossing the skeptical-long picket line?
doma, great!!! for some, an absolute
mega-yawn for others.
To each their own.
regards,
Dig Space.