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to be honest, if anything is looking like a "scam"
its EXEL.
I have a high degree of confidence that management over there isn't be honest whatsoever on what the "problem" is over there.
They continue to say XL184 is fine. Well, why did the CEO jump ship, after laying off 270 people, after doing a $200 million debt financing, and after BMY dumped XL184?
Looks like an Enron'esque type of management team they got there..
why do you think KERX / perifosine is a scam?
i am asking from a trading perspective
thank you surf1944 for showing a high level of intelligence
i haev been trying to say MFFAIS is incorrect and for people to stop spreading the fidelity rumor.
hopefully this will put it to rest.
You're `100% incorrect.
But you can keep thinking what you want.
Thank you for the heads-up Dew.
Again, sorry for you confusing me with someone who is trying to "pull one over" on the board.
I will tell you straight up if I'm long or short. Doesn't matter to me. Sometimes my "abrasiveness" comes across or something, but I jut don't tolerate blatant pumping (or I try and point out just plain stupidity that gets passed on as fact).
This boards a great source of info, and really gets past all the junk of political talk on the Yahoo boards (nothing worse than talking politics all day on a stock message board).
BTH
I sure did.
Thanks.
(probably due to most of my companies I follow are strictly in the oncology area).
Gramma.
Let me just reiterate this:
They are using a website which claims to have "daily" updated data from Fidelity as to their holdings. This, in itself, is hogwash. Mutual funds, hedge funds etc., do NOT update their data to ANYONE on a daily basis (except internally). They are required to file at 13D statement with the SEC every 90 days (or) unless they go over 5% of the company, in which case they need to file it within a quicker time period than 90 days.
These guys are saying Fidelity is now up to 25%(?) of Ariad holdings due to "updates" on a non-SEC website. MFFAIS collects their data through XML parsing as it scours the internet. The data they collect is over 90 days old, and, to say that Fidelity is piecing in what they do on a daily basis is an utter lie.
We will ALL see the real results of what Fidelity did in Q2 in 45 days. I HIGHLY doubt they bought anymore shares as this would push them over the 15% level, which would initiate a poison-pill (and they are not stupid...they know how much stock to buy so they don't trigger the pill). Why else do you think they stopped at 14.8% (.02% short of the 15% level) last Q? - - because they know a pill would be triggered.
It is just absurd that these guys continue to spread this information without a factual basis for it.
You are SOOOO incorrect
Look. This is really simple. FMR is Fidelity, Fidelity is FMR. It doesn't matter what they separate out on that stupid MFFAIS site.
Read the SEC filings! If you really think that there are two Fidelity entities holding more that 5% of the company (each), then both would need to file SEPARATE statements of holdings with the SEC. And, guess what? Only one did - FMR: 14.8% (see how they stopped short of 15% so they wouldn't trigger the poison pill????????)
Fidelity DOES NOT OWN more than 15% of ARIAD.
Stop the nonsense.
ITS OFFICIAL: Scangos goes to BIIB
Maybe he can drive that company into the ground for good.
Seems like he did a fantastic job with EXEL and screwing that one up bigtime.
BIIB could be one of the best biotech shorts out there now that he's there :)
He didn't get lucky (perhaps luck made the stock go down quicker than expected). The company was retardedly valued at $7 billion at one point.......
I am pretty damn bearish right now. There is nothing that looks good.
Having said that, I am wondering if the 'bearish head and shoulders' pattern is SO obvious at this point, that everyone is going to be wrong, and it might end up in a failed pattern in which a rally would really take place... Problem with this scenario is: i dont know WHAT possible news could come out that would make this market look positive.
Perhaps a lot of this Europe stuff is overblown. Which it may....but unemployment in this country is brutal and the moron running the country wants to raise taxes (when he should be cutting corporate taxes and giving cos an incentive to hire through tax breaks)
Yes. Good call on your short.
I was looking at the market cap when that stock was in the mid-50s and if you had any rationale thought you had to agree that the "news was out" and now it was going to be a "fundamental" story and how would they get the revenues now, would they get enough patients, etc etc etc. Just couldn't see it sustaining that market cap....
But mid-20s now. Wow. Talk about the wheels coming off the wagon.
The whole biotech trade is deadsville right now. I don't see a single positive chart out there.
Aschoff is a "two time loser"
1. He said it was a sell at $5
2. He said it was a buy at $40
DNDN
Unfortunately Fidelity only owns 14.8% of ARIA and the information you are spreading is 100% false.
You are getting your information from old parsed XML data from a really lame website *(MFFAIS).
If you really wanted to see what Fidelity owns, read the SEC.GOV filings. Fidelity does NOT update their holdings on a daily basis.
I wish you people would get it straight and stop this nonsense.
The NCIC endometrial study is new to me.
Don't know how I missed that one.
Says completion is due July 2010.
they get $50 million from Merck plus $19 million Merck repays to them for development costs for the first 4 months of the year = $69 million.
Ariad owes Merck no money.
ARIA
This is pretty simple. And I will spell it out for you simply. I am a lon of ARIA.I have never been short the name. I find it amusing that you would accuse me of being a short because I have vehemently argued other longs of Ariad who blatantly publish the biggest bunch of nonsense and borederline outright lies (many people who post these things continue to not have a clue what they're talking about). Yes, me pumping their BS would probably help my position but then again, no real buyer of this company would be stupid enough to believe their nonsense. Just yesterday someone posted Fidelity bought an additional 4 million shares...which is pure BS and stupid people continue to spread this wihch is an absolute lie.
As far as my points arguing their terrible mgmt in their CEO, I make no apologies. This company would be so much further ahead if they got rid of him.
As far as me arguing on their Phase 3 drug...evidence to date hasn't been entirely fabulous as evidence by their combo trials with herceptin and avastin. Pumpsters continue to say its a shoe in, and because I say BS to this....others and yourself accuse me of being short. No. Wrongggg.
I am long. Never been short. Just not a paid schill or pumping fool.
Great board btw
TIA
I am really sorry for anyone in CTIC
Honestly, that company is one of the biggest piece of diarreah i have ever witnessed.
The CEO is the biggest bumbling fool: dilutionssssss up the ying yang, constant garbage PR and pumping, screws up the FDA's SPA (that was the biggest joke of all), and then keeps coming after shareholders asking them for more shares so he can collect his giant salary some more.
it's too bad people fed his trough for so many years... but it looks like its coming to an end (sadly, for many shareholders who bought his crap)
It's a tough trade with these biotechs.
On one hand, they get crushed with the overall market. So, you want to get the fck out of them.
On the other hand, you want to stay long them if they have good data, good pipeline, and good promise.... because they could generate a news story, partnership, or takeover, any a.m., and be up 200%.
That's the problem I am grapling with now on a lot of these smaller issues.
Today,I came very close to pulling the rug out on my entire porfolio and just saying fk it.
haha...KERX
I did very well on that (sold too early at 4.60---but I was long in the pennys so i cannot complain). I was re-looking at it however, as in your assessment, i do believe the company is a 'scam'. I have been boned severely over the years with almost any company tied to big relations in Israel....you can probably name at least 3 or 4 bio scams that came out of that country or have second offices over there. What actually made me BUY the company was i truly thought they were going to pump and dump the perifosine news... which they did.
Why are you short ONTY? Not enough data to present a positive outlook...or data-set way too far off to generate any interest?
CRIS... big blowup there. I am long, and losing. Bet the wrong way. CDC-0449 looks great in BCC (cant argue with the pictures)....but the drug really sucked it up big in CRC.
regarding ARIA..
Do you follow their lead compound, ridaforolimus? If so, what are you thoughts on the SUCCEED Phase 3 trial? I say its a 50/50 crapshoot (as it seems almost every Phase 3 trial is nowadays).
I'm just not a big fan of single-agent mTOR therapy. '534 is my "put" on that company.
interesting. thanks.
you certainly are bearish.
I am long ARIA and may need to reconsider. I have zero use for holding the bag on that company with their CEO...although a few good compounds.
Right. They just took out a loan of a hundred million or so... youre right.
Some other names... ARIA CRIS KERX ONTY; anything worth looking at there?
I agree 100%.
It is the other people who continue to pump this information and call me a liar who need the 'xplainin!
The only read on holdings will be 45 days from tomorrow, when they all are required to file (unless as you said they go over 5%).
Mffias is a joke site and rookies shouldnt be allowed on there
wallstarb... what is your assessment of EXEL
They have a lot of cash, nearly 12 compounds either in Phase 1 (developed internally, out-licensed, or partnered), and the stock sucks. (Obviously, there are a lot of questions about XL184 and I think people really hate Scangos at this point for his failure to achieve anything whatsoever other than his usual line of "best in class" garbage)
I bought the stock based on its cash, and, because it wasn't a one or two trick poney, but something is not right there. Either they have a crook running the show, or the market is missing something.
Thoughts appreciated...
whatever happened to all the hype about "big pharma buying little biotech"?
That hasn't amounted to crap. More hype? Or just bogus non-sense from the media?
You should really go to the ARIAD (ARIA) board and explain that to those amateurs over there.
They think I am a short-seller and I am lying to them. It's unreal.
Oh really?
Then why does it say on the site "Top Purchases Today" and then right below it is the Fidelity Capital Trust note.
Fidelity did NOT purchase another 4 million shares BECAUSE THE POISON PILL WOULD HAVE BEEN TRIGGERED (WHICH IS THE REASON THEY STOPPED AT 14.8% OWNERSHIP).
I hope I have taught you something.
----------------------------
Top Purchases Today
Fidelity Capital Trust - Fidelity Stock Selector bought 4,014,254 shares of Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARIA), prior they they did not have any shares. Buying ARIA and selling these other Medical-Biomedical And Gene industry stocks: Pdl Biopharma Inc (PDLI) . Holdings History:
Hogwash.
Fidelity didn't add 4 million.
That site is a joke.
So why wasn't the poison pill triggered???????
Fidelity did NOT buy another 4 million shares.
Institutions update with the SEC four times a year...at the end of each quarter. No other times.
That MAFFAIS site is hogwash.
Reasonable List of '534 Partners
Has there been a real discussion (not a hype discussion with no explanation) as to who might partner with Ariad on '534?
1. Novartis. I do not think it would make any sense at all for Novartis to become a partner (a) because they have Tasigna which is already competing against their own drug, Gleevec - I think it would make NO sense for NVS to have (3) CML compounds in their company, all competing for business. Also, if NVS were to partner with Ariad, you could likely kiss big revenues goodbye because NVS will use Tasgina as much as it possibly could in front and second line, with '534 being the last choice, and NVS could also just shelf '534 for T315i.
2. BMY has Sprycel which is going to be competing with Tasigna for first and second line (I don't think it would make sense, again as in NVS' case) for Ariad to partner with BMY based on potential loss of revenues.
3. Pfizer has bosutinib which they are pushing hard for CML to compete for first and second line.
--------------------------------------
Think about other drug companies which either (a) have a drug which will become inferior soon and could be replaced by '534, or (b) don't have a CML drug in place, or (c) do not have overlapping drugs which would compete against each other.
-What about Glaxo Smith Kline
-What about Celgene??
-MRK doesn't have a CML drug (not that I am aware of).
Any rationale discussion?
Ariad volume at close and after-hours almost entirely due to Russell Rebalance
We will see come Monday a.m. who is correct.
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201006251735dowjonesdjonline000627&title=billions-of-shares-trade-at-nyse-nasdaq-in-russell-rebalance
Problem with JAV is they are involved in some take-over situation (having owned the company previously I am aware of the deal, but not following it).