alive and kicking
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Maybe not, if it is still in the hamster that is.
Thta is why we need two or more partners to be interested in rATIII and its many potential uses in acquired ATIII deficiency.
berkeley,
I think the process is correct but the area being stretched is at the lower end of the torso.
All I can say is wow. That is an interesting little article.
oldberkeley,
I managed to increase my total shares by 10% with a buy at $0.57.
<< Investing is not gambling and if you treat it as such you will end up like the millions of people who go to Vegas each year to donate their $2,000 in return for some bright lights and bad food.>>
Actually, I find there is some really great food in Las Vegas!
Rather than an either or situation, it sounds like co-administration of hirudin and rATIII could provide synergistic benefits. I do agree that this study appears to support the use of rATIII in DIC caused by sepsis.
Hob-goblin and MTB, nice job. I haven't gotten the chance to read the manuscript as I have on in progress as a co-author, but I will do so in the near future.
Cro,
That is what I am thinking as well.
Even though it was exepcted, it is still a relief to get the final patient enrolled.
Dew,
Now I would be surprised if we saw a US partnership materialize until after the final patient has been treated and the rATIII data from the HD phase III trial is completed. That would bring us to mid-year. In my view this means most likely it will occur close to the time when GTCB submits their BLA to the FDA. I won't speculate about Japan but that would be pretty nice to see something on that front.
Vinny
<<We do know, for a certainty, that the company was just diluted 10% or so. That's a fact, and not a positive one. >>
Actually, the dilution was about 6% and won't be more than 10% until the warrants are purchased. As far as it being a negative, yes, in the short term it is a negative. If it buys GTCB time and they are able to get a better partnerhsip than they would have without the new stock issue, then it will have proven a positive.
What about the CFO's role now?
I agree. It shouldn't be too long of a wait until this whole financial storm is over and GTCB provides some positive news.
I also agree that crossing fingers won't help because everyone does that. It is far more effective to cross ones toes.
Dufus,
<I wouldn't have dumped a million bucks into progenetics. Think about the associated dilution relative to this last placement 1 million dollars amounts to. I wouldn't have bought back shares from genzyme a few years ago for ten million.>
I do agree with you. The progenetics deal should have been delayed until a US partnership for ATIII was in place. I also wasn't pleased with the GENZ. These are management failures or at least management disregard for current shareholders.
Dodah2,
I feel his pain, your pain, and worst of all, my own pain. Fortunately, it is saturday and saturday is funday, as soon as I get out of work today that is.
stockdak,
I am sorry if I was a bit terse with you.
<<However, re-phrasing the question and taking it at face value: "Would I take 10% of market worth $2-3.5 billion for DIC which GTCB projected taking $1 billion of for $20 million upfront?" Right now, yes I would. $100 million per year for DIC treatment + whatever amount HD would bring would be acceptable to me.>>
It is perfectly fine if you disagree with me. I would like more than what you suggest if you are talking about a straight payment of $20 million now, then $100 million a year later. I would accept the $20 million upfront and higher milestones and a royalty for DIC as opposed to a straight $100 million a year. The reality is we almost certaintly need the phase II trials to show some positive data first.
<<Instead of throwing out a random dollar amount and a percentage and asking the question "Would I take this deal?" Because let's face it no one at GTCB is going to ask for my opinion. How about asking what I would have like to see from partnerships?>>
I am certainly willing to hear what you say, but even if I weren't you should post anyway. What I wanted to see and still want to see is some kind of partnership for HD and or other aquired deficiencies, whether for DIC from sepsis or from burns etc. News on other proteins wouldn't hurt ether. I would also like to hear from management about some numbers for sales of rATIII in Britain, projections from the rest of Europe, milestone payment information from Leo.
I need to go and have a few drinks to ease the pain of the last two days. Oh well, it is only money. GTCB isn't down the toilet just yet, but we are circling the bowl now.
stockdak,
<<Obviously I would have preferred they got the deal done with less favorable terms rather than dilute and delay. >>
Obviously, this depends on the type of deal being offered. If someone said they would give $20 million for 90% of the DIC and HD indications, would you have chosen to take that deal now or would you have waited.
jesse and joethdo,
You are both expressing the same view, and in my view an accurate assessment. GTCB had to choose between getting a bad deal now or waiting. So they chose to wait and take a small financing underless than optimal terms.
caistro,
A while ago you said you sold off. A whiel ago you said you were gone. Now you say you feel screwed implying you still onw GTCB so lost money today. So when were you lying, then or now.
GTCB has stated that the data from 30 patients demonstrates that rATIII is non-inferior to plasma derived ATIII. They came to this conclusion without the need for the final patient. Therefore, we can assume that for the historical plasmid derived ATIII trials, there must have been at least 1 patient with clincial DVT. I would still liked to know how many there were now, but especially prior to the rATIII data release because if it was only 1, then I would have been far more nervous. If it was 2 or 3, I would have been more confident knowing that rATIII was already 0 out of 14 for clinical DVT from the European trial.
I am still celebrating the Giants victory over the Patriots last night, Now comes the great news from GTCB. If ONXX shows good news in their earnings tomorrow, I will have hit the trifecta. If GTCB announces a parthenship soon, it will be the pick four. All I need is for PGNX to announce FDA approval of their drug MNTX and I will have hit the pick 5. Ooh baby!!!
<<From what I have read so far, cultivating transgenic herd to produce theraupetic proteins takes long time. >>
It takes along time compared to what? If you compared it to building a new facility to make proteins by cell mammalian culture, then no, it doesn't take a long time. if you are comparing it to buying a steak at the supermarket, then yes, it does take a long time.
cro,
You seem to jump around and change your opinion about GTCB a great deal. Don't take this as an insult, but that isn't how academic scientists behave, or at least those in biological sciences behave. Maybe physicists have a different style.
lake11,
<<So, it looks like another long weekend of biting nails.>>
Why don't you just get a manicure?
You are right a few pennies here and there doesn't matter to GTCB in the long run. It is just that it feels so damn good to watch GTCB rise those few pennies after the long run of a few pennies down, day after day.
Did said fodder first get raised at Camp Grenada?
Dodah,
Agreed. I would really doubt that it is GTCB.
I like the sound of that!
Hmm,
I like the fact that this makes 3 days with a close over $1. Seven more and there is a good chance the delisting notice is rescinded.
I liked the smiling PIG better.
Flo,
Great picture!!!. I am still laughing. To be host with GTCB hitting $1, my expression is a lot like that pig!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The stress of living with an indecisive husband could have accelerated the visible signs of aging! :)
jesse,
I like the way you think. I was also considering that in the paper, they infused ATIII to much higher levels than normal. I am not an expert in the coagulation casacade so allow me to speculate freely. What if forcing ATIII to such high levels could trigger unintended consequences? For example, will the body react by upregulating some or all of the proteins which trigger the clotting cascade? If any of these are downstream of ATIII action, then it would bypass the effect of having the hyper levels of ATIII.
Mouton,
I should have read your post before making my last post as I was wrong about some comments. You are right that LEO will be infusing for only 5 days as opposed to 4 days in the study, which surprises me that they wouldn't be monitoring and redosing later in an effort to maintain ATIII at more physiological levels. Second, there is no mention of prescreening for ATIII levels prior to administration. However, the paper in question tried to use extremely high doses of ATIII so it is unlikely that LEO will do the same. Still, I think these are points which should be clarified by someone calling IR of GTCB.
Nice work,
Vinnys
One of the points I was making was that they were trying to drive ATIIII to very high levels for 4 days then analzying the effects on clotting a very short time afterwards. That is quite different from what GTCB/LEO are trying, to bring ATIII to normal levels in patients where ATIII had dropped to very low levels, maintaining ATIII at this more physiological levels during the entire interval of care. GTCB/Leo will then monitor survival (and presumably DIC) at multiple intervals, which I believe begins at the 28 day survival.
I just scanned the article. This section from the discussion explains some of the limitations inherent in this study, including a short duration of ATIII treatment and analysis of treatment effects, unscreened population with regard to ATIII levels etc. All in all, it isn't really anything relevant to rATIII usages in the sepsis trials.
<<the treatment with AT for four days did not reduce the overall 28-day mortality rates compared with placebo in a large phase III study [11]. Besides other factors [12], an insufficient dosage and duration of AT therapy could have been responsible for the negative results. In a recent study, prolonged duration of AT therapy guided by the actual activity, instead of a predefined dose, resulted in an effective modulation of coagulatory activation [13]. The effects of AT were thereby not evident until one week of therapy. Additionally, the selection of septic patients who may profit from AT therapy seems to be important. Patients with AT activity below 70% or patients undergoing continuous renal replacement therapies may profit most [20]. Our data seem to confirm these findings, as we did not find alterations of coagulation parameters during the four day treatment with high doses of AT in a population of septic patients not selected by AT activity or a need for renal replacement therapy.>>
<<Stocks that hit new lows, usually go on to hit more new lows. >>
Another pearl of wisdom that is obviously wrong. That would mean that once a stock started down or up, it would keep moving in that direction.
Thanks for the meaningless comment saying in the long term were all dead. That statement seems to have the same relevance to GTCB's prospects as your other statements. I like to buy stocks when they are being driven down, as long as I feel the decline is unwarranted or an over-reaction.
I didn't want to take the chance that GTCB might not drop to $0.74 again so just added 7% more shares at $0.79.
Vinny
P.S. I still have my other limit order open at $0.74.
keitern,
Yes, you need to your emotions in check. Good luck to us both.
Vinny
Right, GTCB is dropping. If you think GTCB is worthless and has no potential in the near term or long term then by all means short or sell. I happen to think GTCB has great potential, in both the near future and long term so put in to buy more today. I love it when people are short sighted and trade based on fear. Yes we will see.