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gloe and Nocona, what I'm concerned about today is that, like yesterday, the price may grind higher as the CCI-144 continues to fall. When this happens, I'm sure you've sometimes had to make a hard decision whether to remove your position and wait. As I read prior posts, I haven't seen any criteria for making that decision. Please take a minute and let me know if there are any. Thanks. Two
Nocona, I finally went long at 10 a.m. when the CCI-144 rose above 100 and the 3/8 confirmation held. The long position was short-lived, of course, and I changed to a short position at 10:20 when CCI-144 once again broke below 100 with a 3/8 confirm. Forgive me for reciting all this. Doing it in real-time is a new experience. I'll get used to it. Two
I'm paper-trading (NDX) for the first time using a brokerage house's live simulated trading program this morning. It's nerve-wracking the first time. Was a little slow reacting to the price jump at 9:55 a.m. Eastern. What held me back from going long was that the CCI-144 didn't rise above 100 until 10 a.m., even though there had been a 3/8 cross five minutes earlier. Did anyone else see this? Thanks. Two
Gleno, my guess is that Bernanke didn't say anything particularly negative. His language was soft re. inflation and possible rate hikes. It looks like we'll retest the highs tomorrow and then start down slowly on Thursday with the big downside to just above 44 at Friday's close. We'll see. Two
Thanks for clarifying, be. Two
fishbait, as I recall from be's lessons on how to read the tick/trin, when both are below zero that's a clear sign that a selloff is imminent. Am I correct? Thanks. Two
Nocona, as I recall, you went short when the CCI-144 fell below 200. I thought you might have decided to play the 125 line when the CCI-144 rose above that level at 1:35 Eastern (at 44.54)? There was a nice mini-rally to 44.69 that ended at 2:20. This makes me wonder if playing the 25-lines is worthwhile during days such as today? Just thinking out loud. Two
gloe, not that it seems to mean anything during this wildly bullish day, but the CCI-144 just dropped below 100 on the 5-min chart (QQQQ). Two
Perhaps this has been asked many times, so forgive me for being repetitive. But when placing stops on NERS' trades, do most here use a 10-cent stop on the QQQQs? Or perhaps less? Two
I like that line ("The trigger you ignore will cost you.") and will make it one of my investment rules. Thanks. 2X
Nocona, I saw the drop below 200, along with the 3/8 confirmation at 11:55. Looks like the CCI-144 is now heading toward the 150 level. It's dicey to go short on a day like this, especially with such bullishness, but I guess you have to take your chances when the opportunity arises. 2X
OK, sorry. Two
gloe, am I correct in assuming that the QQQQ price is weakening as the CCI-144 (5-min) continues to drop? The 3/8 almost crossed at 10:50 a.m., but the price then rallied as the CCI-144 continued to drop. This almost seemed counter-intuitive? Two
Thanks, gloe. What's interesting to watch now is this extremely high CCI-144 level, which currently stands at 476.39. I suppose it can go higher, but I can't recall seeing it at this level? And my short experience watching the 5-min CCI-144 chart (QQQQs) leads me to think that the price might be topping at this or perhaps a slightly higher level. Can you shed some light on what you've seen when levels this high are reached? Two
That's what I thought. It's now obvious that taking a short position at 9:40 a.m. was inappropriate. Those crossovers are critical. Thanks. Two
Nocona, although there wasn't a 3/8 crossover, the CCI-144 dropped below 300 at 9:40 Eastern. Was that not a legitimate point to go short the QQQQs? Thanks. Two
I agree with that rule, gloe. Thanks. By the way, I ordered and read "Futures & Options For Dummies," and am investigating several possible trading houses for trading Nasdaq e-minis using futures on margin. Two
Nocona, the difference was that I had NDX on my prophet chart, not the QQQQs (which registered more than 100). This taught me that I should refer back to the QQQQ chart when there's a "close call" decision to be made. Thanks. Two
Excellent answer, gloe, and exactly what I thought. The uptrend was weak, couldn't quite penetrate the 100 line, and fell back. I paper-traded short and it turned out to be the correct move. It seems to me that there are times when the 50-trigger lines work best, too. I guess the bottom line is that judgment and luck go hand in hand on some, if not all, occasions. Two
ballyhoo, two of Ben's regional Fed officials (Fisher in Dallas was one) last week suggested a tougher stance on inflation and possible future rate hikes. I can't imagine Ben going against his minions' statements, although he might soften them a bit. Somehow, I don't think the market is going to like what Ben says tomorrow. Can't put my finger on why, but today's rally seems very contrived to me. Perhaps it's a bull trap? Two
Another dumb question for gloe and Nocona. At 1:05 Eastern the CCI-144 hit 99.69 and the price turned down. This was obviously a good place to go short after the 3/8 confirmation at 1:10 p.m. But I was hesitant to go short because the CCI-144 had not broken the 100 level before it fell. I assume there's a little "flexibility" permitted as far as playing the trigger lines? Two
A very large amount of Fed money has been pumped into the economy on Monday and today. As I recall, yesterday's total came to $61 billion ($9.5 billion was accepted), and today looks like a $54 billion amount ($8.75 billion accepted). Yet, the indexes aren't responding with too much vigor. In fact, my charts seem to think we may have a down day on the NDX tomorrow. A bad reaction to Bernanke's messages? Two
gloe, I agree, trading less and avoiding whips are prime goals. You brought up an interesting subject re. one's computer "freezing" and not providing quotes. I have this problem at least once daily, which is very frustrating. Thanks for your responses. Two
gloe, it appeared that there were excellent opportunities yesterday to go short as well, particularly during the first 45 minutes. With the 34-ema heading down all day yesterday, I'm curious why you didn't take a few short positions? Two
gloe and Nocona, I found yesterday to be particularly challenging to trade using the NERS method on the NDX. The CCI-144 rose during most of the day (it finally broke through -150 at 10:15 Eastern), while the EMA 3/8 whipsawed repeatedly during the late morning through the close. There were opportunities to trade long/short, but they were short-lived and resulted in many trades. May I ask how you fared yesterday? And what advice would you offer a novice NERS trader when the price action is choppy all day? Thanks. Two
Dan and be, they're shaking out the weak bulls and emboldening the bears this morning. My prediction: green at day's end. Two
sat, I paper-traded a good portion of yesterday using CCI-144/5-min and had the same experience. I couldn't seem to enter or exit positions as fast as the price changed. It appeared that only the 3/8 was indicating the proper time to enter/exit. But after awhile I realized that I was paper-trading excessively and it was time to simply pull out of my hypothetical position and watch. I'm sure gloe and Nocona have seen many choppy days such as yesterday during the past year? (By the way, I used to post as 2X-Be-Me but had to change my handle to Two-timer due to "cookie problems.") Two
Good morning, Foot and everyone. Due to "cookie problems," I had to re-register and change my handle from 2X-Be-Me to Two-timer. Has anyone else experienced having to re-register on Investors Hub? In any event, I see today as being a net-positive day for all the indexes. It will just be slow in coming. Rates will remain unchanged. The key to a positive day will be in Bernanke's words, which may come out sounding positive about future business growth without too much or any inflation. Something like that. We'll see. Two