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I agree, april or may for the short. And how far it can go up is not predictable, as manias have no limits. IMagine the naz doubled in just a couple months in 200 before the end.
Am tired of fighting the fed, will wait for the next really easy short entry point.
Anyone else see the triangle formation this past 2 weeks? Is a continuation pattern, price target 1578?
My gut says stay short, system says be flat, am flat for the weekend, but still own gold so if the crises happens, I make some money anyways, and eventually gold goes to $3000 an oz, better than keeping money in the bank!
For the record, I am pretty sure we tank on monday, but am tired of fighting the fed. BTW, watch for market to go the opposit direction of how it opens on monday most weeks.
Also remember to watch how first hour vs last hour trading goes. When we start dropping every last hour, is super bearish. Opposit seems to be the story again, down in first hour, up in last.
Am one beat up bear, not willing to lose more money until I get a solid sell. Have a pretty buy signal off the high trin all week but not willing to buy either.
Amazing that the best one is only right 2 out of 3 times, and most are wrong more than they are right.
Enjoy the weekend. BTW, sold my sds at 44.87 just now, so we tank big time on monday is my guess, as i will not make any money.
I got back in at sds 44.8, 40% of my money.
Are we nuts? Will cyprus crises not be news by next week?
A couple good earnings, and stocks are up. Several important bad earnings and stocks done drop.
Is their a message here?
Did not say get rid of corporations, just make the people running them responsible for their actions. Like the rest of us. If we commit fraud, we go to jail. If we murder people, like BP did, we go up for murder.
Less profits, more people enjoying a decent life. some people just cant work, and some like me love to work even when I dont get paid (like on here)
Sold half my sds for profit, holding onto the rest for monday. My system says sell, sell, sell, but with news events running things, and the fed printing so fast, will keep a small short for now.
I agree, trading against the trend is dumb, but I do it all the time and make some money.
Only way to make real money is be an insider, part of the old boy network. For the rest of us, buy when fear is rampant and sell when everyone agrees to buy is the best way to make money.
I try to take a longer term view, but dont express it on this board, as am mostly shor term here.
enjoy the weekend.
Problem is greed, that modern society is detached from nature, that if I set up a company and take advantage of your home town, I can leave with no worries with all the money
When corporations and the people running them are responsible for the economic misery and destruction they cause, then we would have a heaven here on earth No more wars, why would anyone need them?
I have supported myself since 1986 on my investments and trading. Not a lavish lifestyle, probably most peoples kids spend more money than I do, but I have a house that I love on a property I love and in a place I love.
So maybe trading can make money? sold my 2k of sds at 45, bought it back at 44.8. chip shots. NOt greedy, making money shorting since the new year, hooray
Am just trying to remember the old adage, while trading: Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs lose money.
The bulls still have momentum behind their sails,bears have overextended price structure to confirm their case. Also, weather the fed can actaully get the economy back on track without the help of congress (I bet they cant) is still to be seen. What is clear is slowing earnings, big time, and in the end stock prices move up and down with earnings.
If history repeats, we get a small correction followed by a broadening top pattern. Only time we got a bear without that is 1998, due to a crises, but like this time, the crises began the year before with the asian meltdown, followed by a small hedge fund going under.
Thank god some small country with less people than live within 50 miles of me could not cause a worldwide financial crises!
Thanks for the heads up on copper. The extreme readings in weekly sentiment can, like copper, not work for awhile, but eventually the fed will not be able to prop up equity prices, and in the short run, a 3 to 7% correction would set up enough fear to propel prices to new highs and suck in the last of the small investors, before the bear strikes full force.
Which is all just conjecture, but for now, am comfortable with 25% of my assets in sds, and 10% in gld, although that was not the best investment so far that I ever made.
FED ex earnings are terrible, but who cares as the fed and all central banks print and print.
I feel strongly that after any initial reaction of fed speak, we go down hard into the close today. Not betting the farm on it, but sure looks like it to me.
Thanks for the post of 1938. NOt sure what it means, but then again am not sure what anything means anymore!
BTW, if we close below where we opened today, then is a sell signal on the pattern.
This time, it could be very different, and a financial crises in Europe will start a world market meltdown.
However, in the past, market went up almost into the recesion, instead of predicting them and starting down 6 months in advance.
I am back in short again, bought sds at open. Will add some more if all fits later today, or wait for 1470 to go all in.
This time, it could be very different, and a financial crises in Europe will start a world market meltdown.
However, in the past, market went up almost into the recesion, instead of predicting them and starting down 6 months in advance.
I am back in short again, bought sds at open. Will add some more if all fits later today, or wait for 1470 to go all in.
Market might go up into the fed meeting tomorrow, but the pattern is looking more and more toppy day by day. the 21dma is still rising, so one more rally after this correction is over (after a fall to between 1450 and 1500 is my guess) is a pretty sure thing, if the drop happens by early next week. A longer drop that last more than a week could set up another major rally to new highs, like in the 1990, 2000, and 2007 tops.
Cyprus by itself has not meaning, but this is going to scare a lot of people, and set up another financial crises in Europe sooner than anyone thinks is my best guess.
On the other hand, stocks keep going up until the economy starts to turn down, and that is not happening yet.
One of the differences this drop from the last two three percent corrections the last couple months is the trin is not shooting up quickly right away. Not much fear yet, where before fear showed up as soon as prices fell a little bit.
am looking for a trin over 3 to signal an end to this decline. The vix is spiking quickly, which does happen when a serious correction begins, so is not as reliable an indicator for a buy.
On the other hand, the fed meets tomorrow, and they could say something early to calm markets. Isnt it sad the fed has to calm markets after a 1% drop? What can they do when the market falls 20%?
Nothing would surprise me about this market. Am only 25% short, in case we get a big up day (which I was expecting to end this rally), in which case I go 75% short. Am 10% long gld, not making money on that one.
BTW, those who put a percentage of their savings into the market every month are not doing so well the past 15 years, even with the market at new highs. Major bear markets, like the one that started in 2000, last 16 years normally.
1. In the long run, you will make the most money owning stocks.
2. The weekly sentiment numbers, which I have followed for over 28 years, are signaling a correction anytime now, and at current levels of enthusiasm, the market has been lower 1 to 6 monhts out EVERY TIME.
So why own stocks now? short term we are overbought, ready for a correction (but I only expect 3 to 7%, depending on how bad the news is the next week or so)
Sincere wishes for your speedy recovery.
Sending healing thoughts for your speedy recovery, and may it mirror the demise of the sp500 this week (am short of course)
When is next fed meeting, and when do they "announce" and move markets?
The best relationships for learning how to have a good relationship, are the bad ones. At least that has been the case in my life, dont learn much from the good women, learn a lot about what not to do from the difficult women. There is no such thing as a bad woman, only challenging ones that if anyone wants a phone number of some real challenges, just ask and i can provide.
Put 25% of my money long sds at 44.6. For once, I actually got the fill while out gardening! On friday, had an order at 44.35, never got filled, then changed it to 44.45 just before the close, did not get filled.
As I did get a fill this time, notice: The market is now going up enormously the next couple days, as I have been wrong so many times. However, I have made a modest living doing this for 28 years, so maybe we are about to drop again.
time will tell. Best of luck to everyone.
BTW, support for spx:
1538 - gap open on march 5 and more or less the rising 21dma
1500 - uptrend line from november, and more or less rising 50dma
I expect one to hold later this week, to propel us higher. BTW, maybe up into fed anouncement, then we correct?
SO much fun to be on sidelines, waiting, and thinking about what to do next.
I never understand why people need to put anyone else down. We all make mistakes, learn from them and become better investors and traders.
I see more downside later this week, think this rally on its last legs, although their will be another rally to new highs after the 3 to7% coming later this week and next.
Just my theory, although market so overbought, easier to go down than up.
one more about cboe:
equity options readings under .5 is bearish, over 1 is bullish.
Index options trickier, as high reading can say the pros are buying protection.
But the overall number should be under .8 for all if you want to say their is less fear, and better to have it under .6 for a big top.
I cant believe we keep going up either.
put call ratio on cboe and isee, both are at levels after a correction, not after one of the longest rallies in history.
IN march and april 2000, we got a put call ratio under .4 on the cboe. Now, I dont expect those kind of numbers ever again, but .6 would be normal right now, instead we are getting over 1 on small pullbacks of less than 1%.
The isee was over 200 (today at 100) on sept 14th of last year, the last top.
So I want to see less fear in both, or at least one of those befoer we can call a top. Yes, the vix is low, but no reason it cant go lower after this kind of 4 year bull market and low volatility recently.
We still have not filled the gap from March 5th at 1536. I suspect we drop to that level next week (from fridays high, maybe 1575?), so am buying a few sds today, and more tomorrow.
The last 3% correction, the spx fell 45 points, if you add that to the high it fell from, 1530, you get 1575, which is also the high from 2007.
Expect a 3% or bigger correction from there, if everything else lines up. Still too much fear in option players. OH, expect a run up into the close friday, options expiration, although the last 15 minutes is always dicey about what happens.
It is not different this time. From Dec 8 1994 to Jan 3 1995, there were only two 3% corrections, one in July, and one in December.
The fed had tightened all year in 94, and then started to loosen considerably.
Of course, china, india, and eastern europe were starting to join the places we could sell our stuff too, and the internet companies were doing spectacular, so it was different.
But, nothing says we have to have a larger correction every 3 months.
If I have learned one thing, it is to have a plan and stick to it, unles facts no longer support the premise.
I have watched markets for so long, can feel when it wants to keep going up, and this market wants to keep going up.
However, 3% corrections happen every couple months, no matter what, and eventualy even 5 to 8% corrections happen.
Bottom line: For now, the trend is up, but bumping up against some pretty significant resistance. However, no rally ends without a 3 to 7% correction and another rally to try to make new highs. This market has not made the first top, so shorting hoping for a big gain does not make sense yet.
Major support at lower trend line, currently 1490.64, going up 1.89 daily.
First major support level: 1536, gap up on March 5th.
Have no idea how this all plays out, but if we keep going sideways into friday, expect a big up day monday and up into fed meeting. if that happens, sell the farm and short the market.
bottom line: Trend is up into april when we make the first top, which after a 7% correction or so could lead to another high later in the summer before a drop into the fall, etc, etc, etc.
Thanks for the info about the fed. Yes, then a move up into the fed makes good sense, unless we get a big up day before next tuesday, which would be the top. Market does not always go up into the fed, but it does in a bull market.
Great charts! I see a major bottom in 87, 2000, and 2013 from your charts of 13 year cycle, which is pretty good. 4 year works somewhat.
We did not top at the new moon, I think we need one more big up day to complete this pattern and start a decline.
That is my trading plan for now. Sideways up into friday, then big up day monday, then the correction. Of course, will not follow that in reality, but is fun to think about it.
last post before I turn off my computer for the day:
Not always, but normally you get a big up day before even a 3% correction. As in, up 1% sets up a top for a 3 or a 5 - 8% correction. And unless is a parabolic move up, you get a small correction and another attempt at new highs before the big selling happens, as in a correction of more than 5%. 3% corrections take a few days, like the last two.
good luck to everyone who is long or short, as I want a big more one way or the other to set up the next entry!
One more good indicator is put call ratio. Way too much fear for a small loss again today, says up big time into friday. OUch for the bears. could be down tomorrow, even down to 1538, but that would be a buy.
So much fear every small decline, says when the decline really starts, it will be fast and deep, as the fear will build quickly. Not sure when, but am sure selling before mid april makes good sense.
I have found one indicator that actually works: support and resistance.
As in, when you get higher highs and higher lows, you keep forming support, etc.
Channel lines also work.
Both of the above, can be broken and then have a sideways market instead of more movement, and sometime important support or resistance is broken, but then does not hold for more than a couple days and you get a reversal back into the primary trend, and that is when you really have to get out of the way.
Last, watch for closing tick over 1200 for a top, or below -1000 for a bottom, same for interday of 1400 positive or negative to indicate a reversal point. I remember in march 2001, negative 1500 on the day it reversed and we got a nice rally for 3 days, then another drop for 9 days, then a 22% rally for over a month.
bottom line: 90% of indicators are coin flip types, might as well flip a coin. Pattern recognition works, but takes years to figure what it all means. For now, pattern is super bullish short and longer term, no matter if I am a super bear.
if down today (likely) then up tomorrow, that was an old signal, up up down up for a top.
Does not work unless you are expecting a top. As in, if we go up big tomorrow, high tick at end, not too much fear in the options, then that was the top some of us have been expecting.
Then again, could be down again tomorrow, especially as I sold my sds for a small gain today, mostly as have been burned too many times by the market going up and up and up nonstop.
Bullish engulfing candles and hammers dont always work. If you are sure a top or bottom just happened, and one of those also happened, then is a pretty good indicator.
However, even then, if the signal fails, look out in the opposit direction of what you expect.
My work completely supports your price target for gld at 158-160 in april. expect stocks, and gold prices, to start down then.
Gold needs a longer correction to get the weak hands to give in and sell. Then it can run to 3000 and oz next year.
Keep up the great posts.