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I'm In ENGY...
What makes you think .02 is in the cards?
Some Thoughts on ENGY (OTCBB)...
Frankly I'm a bit out of my depth as I'm sure there are many individuals here with trading experience far greater than my own.
I'll try to conform to the board's stated rules by including a chart:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=ENGY,uu[w,a]dallyiay[dc][pd20,2!b10][vc60][iUf!La12,26,9....
I will also throw in some fundamental realities:
The company just released a Notifcation of Late Filing
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001052918%2D03%2D000284%2Etxt&FilePath....
And one other thing of significance in my opinion is that Bowers, Director, CEO and CFO resigned back in June of this year:
The resignation was reproted on an 8K filed July 18th 2003:
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001052918%2D03%2D000177%2Etxt&FilePath....
I think the perfomance of the stock is nothing short of incredible in light of the fundamental realities. One thing I'm interested in, if anyone would care to share...are are there any filings related to the selling or registering of stock...I haven't found any.
Also, as far as I'm aware there has been no IR campaign, no PRs, no webcast CEO interviews of any kind during the past 6 months...basically no promotion of any kind that I've be able to discern. Frankly, it warms this contrarian's heart. If I've missed some promotion please let me know.
Any thoughts and or comments appreciated.
Any Thoughts On ENGY...
Despite filing that earnings wouldn't be out on time the stock has gone on quite a run.
Things are awfully quiet...
But with no news, late financials, and no discernable promotion...well I guess it's somewhat understandable.
FWIW I consider technical observations to be most reliable in this type of enviornment. I know many don't think TA has a place in stocks trading this low...but frankly I don't see why.
Whether a stock is trading at 1 cent, 1 dollar or 100 dollars I view TA as a mere reflection of the trading activity...supply versus demand, weak hands versus strong, greed versus fear.
With this being OTC land I do not totally rely on TA as short interest is not reported. As I've said before (I think)...I don't think ENGY is being shorted except perhaps short term by MMs meeting liquidity demands. That imo is a neccessary evil if one wishes a stock such as ENGY to have a liquid market. If MMs weren't allowed to go short on occassion I doubt many would participate in making a market for stocks such as this.
I'm in too canuk
Hub has a board, and I've been one of just one or two who's posting as a long.
Will the Q be out on time?
Anyone familiar with ENGY's history? I believe they've had an E appended to their symbol in the past for being late. If an E is added to the symbol I might pick some more up...
The horse appears quite lively to me...
Not too many people paying attention to the old nag right now though...but if that changes I think I'll be very happy
Johnny, Find any of those shares?
They're worth a bit more than they were at the close of trading yesterday. Of course with the spread between the bid and ask being so large most of the day its debatable how much more.
According to my numbers this is the first time we've been at volume at or above the preceding 20 day average since Oct. 20th and 21st when the PPS spiked up over a penny for a couple of seconds (sic).
I know you don't believe TA to be an accurate measure with a stock trading this low. For my own part I consider it to be as good a gauge as any at this point...and in general I consider TA to be most reliable when there is an absence of news or hype.
Ideally TA divorces itself from the fundamentals of a stock and looks simply at the trading taking place in my opinion. I consider it as accurate an indicator with ENGY at .007 as at .070 cents. Of course this is the OTCBB, and I do consider TA less reliable here than on senior exchanges where short interest is reported.
That's not to say I think ENGY is being shorted...far from it. About the only shorting happening in my opinion would be from MMs selling short to meet liquidity demands, and I consider that to be short term at best.
Anyway enough rambling....
Earnings this week? link
http://cobrand.knobias.com/otcbb/story.htm?eid=3.1.fcfee81418993584f2ace67dddd5a5c80af972420fbcca3c2...
Hopefully the overall trend we've seen in the PPS since the middle of October forbodes something positive. Personally I'll reserve judgement until the market reacts.
I like the odd lot trading too...
At least as a possible inidcation for a change in direction. Someone it seems had an extra 62 shares of ENGY kicking around that they decided to get rid of. Somehow I doubt there's any buying going on in odd lot quantities.
I doubt those who would be selling odd lots fall into what I call the 'smart money' crowd.
Thanks Johnny...
I'll keep an eye on those, time is at a premium for me but I'll bookmark that post and do my DD on those. If ENGY moves the way I'm hoping I should have some $$$ to play with
Today sure started off interesting. Some pre-market activity (25K traded) when I checked earlier...then a flurry off the bell. Kind of reminds me of some girls I used to date. Lots to get me excited...then pfffft. Of course on many occasions I stuck it out with them and was rewarded with that which I was looking for.
If everyone was of your opinion jmhollen...
Then there would be no trading in ENGY at all. Everyone would be holding what shares they have and nobody would be looking to buy. A day like Oct 20 when almost 20 million shares were bought and sold would never have happened.
Why the sudden surge in volume, coupled with a substantial run up in the PPS in terms of %? I don't think there is anything fundamenteal which can explain it...yet there it is. In technical terms it may be what is called a terminal move. That is to say a change in the prevailing direction of the PPS....time will tell.
NT had a significant jump in volume back in the summer of 2002 at around $1.00 per share...afterwards it sank back to about 50 cents before making significant gains.
Here's an interesting Charts...
Notice the spikes in volume and the price moves that ensued over the past 5 years. Will more recent volume spikes result in similar moves?
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ENGY.OB&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=5y&l=on&z=l&a...
Are you still invested here john?
You pay awfully close attention to this board for someone not holding shares. If you're back in is it because of something you'd care to share?
Gord
I think you meant discourse John,
As opposed to intercourse...You seem like a decent enough egg, but my name is Gord and my sexual orientation precludes me from engaging in intercourse with a member of the same sex.
"from our current intercourse"
As to my height, at just 1/4 inch shy of 6' I have no worries there either.
I like to speculate and have been successful recently with DTMG and IDNW employing this same method. Will it work here? I don't know...it hasn't yet with NCTI either.
No worries jmhollen...
Disagreement is what makes the market tick. We can't all buy and then sell at exactly the same time. For me the most challenging aspect to the OTCBB is the lack of short interest reporting.
Any discussion re short interest on any OTCBB stock is purely moot.
The problem with Fundamentals in my opinion...
As I see it, when they are comparatively at their best the share price tends to be at or near it's high...when they're at their worst the share price tends to be closer to it's low.
That's why I tend to shy away from fundamentals, except as a contrarian indicator. Frankly I consider fundamentals to be of least value on the OTCBB, that's my opinion.
That's not to say fundamentals don't play a role...Investors wishing to buy when a stock is trading at or near its lows need shareholders willing to sell at or near the lows. Because so many investors put so much weight on fundamentals, many will be willing to sell at or near the lows based on the fundamental picture in my opinion.
The same principle holds true for selling at the high, just in reverse. Shareholders wanting to sell at or near the highs need investors willing to buy at or near the highs. And again if the fundamentals are strong many investors are willing to buy high.
So, given my opinion of fundamentals as an unreliable indication, what is one to do? That's where, for me...technical indications in general and price volume moves specifically come into play.
Its a risky way to invest...and I don't reccomend it to anyone, but it is my MO.
I'm Assuming You Had Access to that information...
And given your history it would appear it was not a reliable gauge in terms of deciding when to buy. Hollen, you fired the 1st shot suggesting this was a case of the blind leading the blind by horning in on dialogue between myself and another poster.
Based on the information you mentioned you were bullish earlier this year. How did using that infomation pan out for you in terms of the movmement of the stock? I prefer TA, if you don't that's fine.
???? jmhollen ???
Are you feeling okay? Granted I understand your rationale for deciding to bail, fair enough. I'm sure nobody ridiculed you when you were bullish and paying substantially more per share than what buyers are paying now. In hindsight it would be far easier to ridicule you for being bullish when you were, than it is to ridicule those who are bullish now.
You lost $$$ here...that happens, now get over it.
I still may add more...
I'm going to wait to see if earnings are filed on time, if they're late...or have an E appended to the symbol I might get a better PPS.
Is anyone still watching here?
If you're into TA check out the MACD, moving averages are looking good in my opinion. Haven't seen a PR in ages, but in my books that's quite often a good thing.
Heading back to .01 on lighter volume?
I hope so...and with less volume I think there's a better chance of it holding if we get there.
All Investing is speculating jmhollen...
When you go long in a stock you're 'speculating' that its value will increase. Whether your opinions as to what will cause that increase are technically or fundamentally based...either way its speculating.
Likewise with a short position, except then you're speculating that the PPS will drop.
I have no problem refering to my investment style as 'speuclative'...and given the recent volumes in ENGY I don't think I'm the only speculator out there.
so watching engy is like watching teletubbies???
You don't come across as that shallow...
Thanks for clarifying jmhollen...
Given all those fundamental realities it sure makes the surge in volume and resultant increase in the PPS look intriguing.
Any Thoughts on Today's News?
Seems to me Artera's reach is expanding to the four corners...hopefully it will translate into some decent revenue nubmers.
I think jmhollen is right wrz...
I think the wildcard is funding, if ENGY secures it...look out. If not...ah well, the volumes sure were intriguing. Hopefully the recent up tick in volume portends something, but at the end of the day its speculating for me.
Any thoughts on today's activity?
The past couple of days have been very interesting. Are there any other current shareholders posting here? Or am I the only one participating who isn't a former shareholder?
jmhollen I know you started this board...
As a matter of fact I've read a good many of your earlier posts and that's the reason why I have an appreciation of your fundamental knowledge of both ENGY in particular and the business in general.
I won't appologize for being bullish on this as a speculative investment, or the fact that my opinions tend more toward the technical.
Preaching to the Choir jmhollen???
Heck, you aren't even in the church. You seemingly just stand outside the doors saying, 'I think there's a better denomination down the road a ways'.
This stock comports significant risk, I know that. If you're not comfortable with the risk that's fine. I do appreciate your understanding of the company and its technology, their current state not withstanding.
How is ENGY being manipulated???
If anything selling would seem to be in order based on the fundamental picture...but if one wants to buy low there must be others willing to sell low.
This is after all the OTCBB which many regard as a highly manipulated exchange. If that worries some then the OTCBB is not the place to be investing probably. Personally I like the OTC in many respects.
I'm holding strong...
Moves like this rarely happen for no reason in my opinion.
Well the market is talking to me right now...
And based on the trading I like what it says...granted ENGY probably isn't on too many radar screens right now given the lack of news or promotion. But another couple days like this coupled with some of the aforementioned news or exposure could in my opinion prove very profitable.
JMH...Any Thoughts?
Is something driving this sudded volume surge?
Looking interesting today...
Any thoughts?
Another Bit If You're Interested...
It doesn't appear to this investor that NCT Group is doing much of anything to attract investors. The CEO did give an interview back in May (paid for I assume), however I don't ever recall seeing any promotion of the interview.
http://www.wallstreetreporter.com/linked/NCTGroupINC.html
It seems to me that if some effort was applied to attracting investor interest via analyst coverage, promotion or an organized IR campaign, that NCT Group could conceivably lift its PPS quite substantially. The Avaya relationship alone could have done wonders in my opinion had it been better publicized than through just an 8K announding 'Other Events':
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/030505/ncti.ob8-k.html
In reading their filings the fundamental picture does not appear rosy with dillution being the biggest concern in my opinion. However it appears as though the majority of shares are held by BO's and insiders in my opinion, but please verify.
Anyway I-Hub appears a decent place to discuss things as RB's board has about 30 'basher' IDs and RB seems to have zero interest in enforcing their Terms of Service.
Here are my thoughts jmhollen:
The Bowers resignation to which you refer was reported on or about July 18th via an 8K:
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001052918%2D03%2D000177%2Etxt&FilePath...
In reading the appended letter of resignation, the reasons listed appeared quite grave in my opinion. The market's reaction however seemed almost 'ho hum'.
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ENGY.OB&d=c&t=6m&l=on&z=b&q=l
The letter of resignation is dated June 5, 2003. Early in July ENGY went on a bit of a run on volume above the preceding 20 day average. Quite strange considering the resignation of key player don't you think?
Anyway I do appreciate reading your thoughts as you appear to have an excellent understanding of the technology and its place in the market. Here's hoping they can get their house in order. If they don't...c'est la vie, I went in with my eyes wide open.
They Didn't Make alot of Noise about it...
But back in May they announced an agreement with Avaya (AV on the NYSE).
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/030505/ncti.ob8-k.html
As I say, not alot of Noise about it, but their previous name was Noise Cancelation after all I never saw any other dissemenination of the news except via the above linked 8K announcing 'Other Events'.
Appreicate your thoughs jmhollen...
As I said on RB when I got in, if they turn this around then I'm within a penny of the bottom. I'm comfortable with the risk...I didn't expect a stock trading at these levels to seemingly have outstanding prospects.
Ledrog from RB here...
Based strictly on technical considerations vis a vis the price volume movement I'm somewhat optimistic. I like the fact that as near as I can tell there is zero hype, news or promotion. We'll see what comes of it...