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As a nation we spend way too much time and money in the last few months of someone's life ratehr then spending it on preventative care and early intervention.
Wallstar: I think modern healthcare is generally overrated ... we all eventually succumb to death, so what's the point of prolonging life by months or years? :) Why not spend that money on improving everyones quality of life in their first 40 years of life? (the only years that really matter!) Why are we expending so much energy/resources to avoid going somewhere inevitable?
You seem knowledgeable .. I would recommend that we defer to folks like you (who know a lot about money and how important it is in the big scheme of things) on setting rules around who gets healthcare, how much they should receive (depending on their age/medical condition/etc) and when we should BITE THE BULLET and turn sick grandma/grandpa away to succumb to the natural course of things (they should understand that it is for the benefit of early intervention or other sensible programs)
In 2009, the Federal Gov. expended $782 Billion on Defense, $676 Biilion on Medicare/Medicaid... If we decreased healthcare spending to $176 billion per year we could put nearly $4000 in every taxpaying American's checking account each year! We could likely get away with cutting defense budget to $100 billion a year if we focus heavily on more tactical nuclear weapons and other WMD's and show the world that we mean business by not playing so nice. (that would get us another $4000 for every taxpaying American!)
I'm sure that will go a long way towards building a more prosperous union, utopia and checking account for all Americans!
MNTA:
Is there anything I can take to make me feel better waiting for some action (on the news front) w/ MNTA?
MNTA: Getting deep into the summer, without a decision from the FDA, is not something I'm terribly excited about. FDA decision making generally slows down as we move out of June. That being said, with MNTA, anything is possible. It is extremely frustrating to witness the GOV's lack of transparent leadership in this regard.
MNTA: Can't recall seeing a biotech of this size with a lack of substantive news for such a stretch of time.
That worked out well again. love this MNTA swing trade. It is rangebound between 11.00 - 15.00
MNTA: Could these be the final convulsions/tantrums from the powers opposing generic lovenox... The fact that they are rehashing old arguments in a semi-coordinated fashion makes me suspect a last ditch (concerted/premeditated) attempt to throw a monkey-wrench in a much anticipated, potentially imminent, approval decision. bullish sign? the next ~30 days will be telling.
MNTA: I am a buyer here (once again). Will buy my next big tranche @ 11.50 (if it gets that low again). Low volume push down is getting annoying, but has made it a profitable trade.
MNTA: Any news re: the markman hearing? I haven't been paying much attention, but it appears we are 60-90 over the ETA for a ruling ( Oppenheimer or Lazard?)
GENZ Management = Irresponsible? (One board member made that assertion this afternoon)
What a big insult to a distinguished management team.
http://www.genzyme.com/corp/structure/bios_flastname.asp
In my brief research, studies that have attempted to assess the value of share buybacks have been inconclusive... that being said, calling a management team "irresponsible" for pursuing a share buyback (funded by debt) is too black and white for my taste.
Did you know GENZ made charitable contributions of ~$100 million last year? Some may call that irresponsible ... (I certainly don't)
Here is one example when a share repurchase funded by debt may have made sense:
AMGN used $650 million dollars from a 2.5 billion $ offering back in 2002 to fund a repurchase of shares. I don't know when they pulled the trigger, but the shares ranged traded as low as $34 dollars in 2002. They got as high as $84 dollars in 2005. Looks smart in retrospect. (ironically enough the 2002 Motley Fool article below captures, in essence, the same debate we are having on this message board)
http://www.fool.com/portfolios/rulebreaker/2002/rulebreaker020226.htm
MNTA: Climbing hard after being down more than 6%. Stock is behaving well after getting back to $15 (hard fight to break 200dma and 50dma). Let's see if she can set some new 52-week highs in the coming days.
Peter,
do you agree with Dew that FDA decision this year is VERY likely? To what extent, if any, do you feel there is a risk that the FDA will not decide until 2011/2012?
lol ... not sure, but I'm pretty sure Dew has to update the MNTA Readme First before Craig Wheeler gets his notice.
MNTA: Any thoughts on why MNTA has been so aggressive in attending so many healthcare conferences in such a short timespan?
Citi
Jefferies
Goldman Sach's
all in < 21 days...
On another note, the markman hearing ruling is still outstanding... shocking. :)
That may be true, but contrastingly, we could be holding dead money for many years to come...
Approval will happen, but without any guidance it seems like it could drag on into 2011/2012 ... i wish we had a PDUFA date.
MNTA: Interesting that approval is still in the air and that the judge has yet to rule on the markman hearing. very slow.
I've been accumulating MNTA on every dip under 12.5 ... thing of beauty.
That worked out well... shall we go for another roller coaster ride?
Shocking ... what a bizarre thing to do for such an accomplished individual.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-02/former-sequenom-official-lied-to-investors-u-s-says-update3-.html
Background on Elizabeth Dragon:
Elizabeth Dragon, Betty,Ph.D served as Senior Vice President of Research and Development of Sequenom Inc. from May 15, 2006 to September 2009. Dr. Dragon has over 25 years of diagnostics R&D, management, and leadership experience, including significant product development and commercialization planning and execution achievements during her tenure at Roche Molecular Systems from 1990 to 2006. At Roche, Dr. Dragon held many leadership roles of increasing responsibility, most recently as Senior Vice President of Global Standardization and Vice President of Diagnostics Development. She pioneered the development and commercialization of PCR-based diagnostic tests and ultimately led the global commercialization of numerous FDA-approved diagnostic products. Her successes include the development and commercialization of the AMPLICOR(R), COBAS AMPLICOR(TM), COBAS AmpliPrep(TM), and COBAS TaqMAN(R) reagent product lines and their integration with system configurations for those reagents. Dr. Dragon earned her Ph.D. in Virology and Cell Biology from Albert Einstein College of Medicine of Yeshiva University, is an author of numerous publications, and has received numerous awards, fellowships, and grants.
Past (Former) Sequenom Exec Charged with Lying by SEC
By Adam Feuerstein 06/02/10 - 04:25 PM EDTAdd Comment
Stock quotes in this article: SQNM
SAN DIEGO (TheStreet) -- Sequenom's(SQNM) former head of research and development has been charged with making false claims to investors about the company's experimental genetic test for Down's syndrome, according to a complaint filed by the Securities and Exchange Commission Wednesday.
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Market ActivitySequenom Incorporated| SQNM
UP
The SEC alleges that Dragon, Sequenom's former vice president for research and development, lied on at least three separate occasions when she told investors and analysts that the company's fetal gene test for Down's was almost 100 percent accurate. In fact, the SEC alleges, Dragon knew Sequenom's test was more seriously flawed.
In April 2009, Sequenom admitted that data generated for its Down's test had been "mishandled" and was no longer reliable. The shocking disclosure sent Sequenom shares plunging and ultimately forced the company's board of directors to fire CEO Harry Styli and Dragon.
"Elizabeth Dragon knew the truth about Sequenom's Down syndrome test, yet she told the public it was a near-perfect success," said Rosalind Tyson, director of the SEC's Los Angeles office, in a statement released by the agency. "Her actions misled investors with exaggerated information about a significant new product that never materialized."
In the SEC's complaint, Dragon, a former executive with Roche, is alleged to have provided Sequenom scientists working on the experimental Down's test with outcomes of patient samples which allowed the company to manipulate the data in order to produce more accurate results.
"Dragon falsified the number of samples allegedly tested by Sequenom and she lied about how well the test worked, claiming that it produced unambiguous results. In reality, the test results were often difficult to interpret, which is why she needed to 'unblind' the known outcomes to her scientists," the SEC complaint alleges.
Without admitting or denying the SEC's charges, Dragon has consented to a judgment which will permanently bar her from serving as an officer or director of a public company. A court will decide at a later time the financial penalties to be paid by Dragon, according to the SEC.
Sequenom is currently trying to develop a new genetic test for Down's syndrome.
-- Reported by Adam Feuerstein in Boston.
MNTA: i have to admit, the call was suspiciously different. Rick Shea was different in his approach, far more confident and positive about the FDA's process. Company is thinking hard about post mL objectives.
MNTA: Any meaningful updates since the CC? Any thoughts on why the delay with the markman hearing ruling? Possibility of a summary judgment in favor of MNTA?
Buying more MNTA on the way down (AGAIN). Will go out on a limb (AGAIN) and recommend board members pick up some cheap shares here. Expect it to be back in the low 14's in the near term. (BTW, MNTA was trading in the high 11's when this was posted)
I'm having a hard time substantiating your correlation. I looked at several years of charts going back to 1995, many show the ^BTK higher in September-October than in May. Many biotech stocks are not even tied to oncology and are waiting for binary events that are likely to occur in the summer.
I think it is also important to recognize that the macro-economic circumstances surrounding the market are highly volatile and are likely to influence the BTK more than any perceived seasonal pattern. Stocks could easily jump 15% or drop 15% over the next few weeks, with all the craziness out there,.
Caffeine restores my alzheimers every morning, and I'm 29 years old. :)
What is the basis of your belief that there will be no FDA decision anytime soon? Is it based on tangible information, or a gut feel?
I did not intend to give the impression that Sanofi expects a mL approval no earlier than 2013. My implication is that Sanofi is actively expecting that by 2013, they will have full fledged generic competition for Lovenox. (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE60Q0RE20100127)
Analysis:
More recently,the CEO of Sanofi when pressed on timing, would not dismiss the possibility of mL approval this year by the FDA ... He even went as far as to provide "qualified" guidance for 2010: "2010 business earnings per share to
grow 2-5 percent at constant exchange rates, excluding the
possible launch of a generic to its bloodthinner Lovenox" (http://www.bestgrowthstock.com/stock-market-news/2010/04/29/update-2-sanofi-keeps-forecast-after-q1-beats-consensus/)
and please see ("Sanofi CEO uncomfortable discussing the expected timing of generic competition to Lovenox (enoxaparin sodium) during a Feb. 10, 2010 earnings call.".... http://www.europharmatoday.com/2010/02/unknown-timing-of-lovenox-generics-complicates-sanofiaventis-outlook-.html
We should be cognizant that in 2009, the CEO of Sanofi was more pessimistic that generic lovenox would be approved that year, explicitly stating: lovenox approval in 2009 was a "low probability" (http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/04/17/afx6304279.html)
Conclusion
The CEO of Sanofi has been steadily changing his tune on the possibility of a generic launch of Lovenox: from "low-probability" of generic approval in 2009 to "possible" in 2010 (where he explicitly qualifies Sanofi's financial guidance for that year with a "possible" generic lovenox launch by competitors)
All this is very bullish for MNTA in my eyes.....
Writing the MNTA OTM calls has paid off big in the last 5 years, congratulations if you have taken that approach. I would be careful here with taking any sort of short position in the stock. Notwithstanding the fact that the Russell 2000 is likely to sell-off big if there any correction in the markets: (1) management's tone is exceptionally assertive that a decision is expected soon, (2) the FDA has signaled it feels it has been provided significant deference in this area, (3) competitors (Amphastar) are getting nervous, (4) Sanofi has come out and said that they expect generic lovenox competition in their 2012-2013 #'s....
Had the heparin scare not taken place and the immunogenecity concerns reared their ugly head, MNTA mL would have likely already been approved. We are in the 5th year of the FDA sitting on this ANDA, I think the odds of a decision are extremely high.
MNTA longs: Hang tight. The FDA letter to TEVA was very detailed, the agency appears confident that it has the flexibility and deference to move on these ANDA's ... hopefully we see a mL approval soon (May/June/July) for MNTA
Total speculation.... we cannot read into Janet W's letter to TEVA and the heparin crisis in any meaningful manner. That being said, it appears that the agency is leaning towards a lot more activity now that healthcare legislation has passed. I suspect we get a decision very soon from the FDA on m-Enox.
Leerink is usually pretty good .. i was surprised that the analyst made such a arbitrary and ridiculous assertion.
There is renewed speculation that there may be an attempt by NVS to move in on MNTA.
Why do you think that the risk premiums will expand again? Please provide more color.
Biotech Market: Is it safe to say that the risk premiums that expanded significantly last week have contracted back to the pre-panic levels?
made a couple bucks on the recommendation (http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=49872818). Hope you all had a chance (and the cajones) to pick up some cheap shares.
SQNM raises 51 million $ through a direct private placement @ $4.15 per share.
MNTA: Best of luck to us.
MNTA longs:
How are you holding up? :)
Russell 2000 down ~9% last week ... explains the huge downward move in stocks like MNTA on no material news. This is a great buying opportunity. If MNTA looked like a good risk/reward @ 15$, it is a screaming buy @ 11. In light of Wheeler's reiteration that they expect a FDA decision in the near term (i take that to mean in the next few months), i think the Jan 2011 call options are a great value here. Imagine waking up to see MNTA trade at 40$ or higher. Would be great!
MNTA: Will go out on a limb and recommend board members to bite on MNTA here. It is trading in the low 12's. Once some bids start to hit the stock, i expect it will head back to the low 14's.