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Good W@G Ray
$2.00 will be psycological resistance and therefore selling at that price or slightly below makes sense for individuals that do not wish to hold through the FDA decision. While product(s), profits, technical analysis of charts all enter into the price of a stock, psycological factors also play a big role in the market.
W@G2 07/23/12 for a 07/27/12 close
64.12 Kookiekook
Just as likely it will be 8-13 pre-market.
Also, the company does have 3 days to make any public announcement (I do not remember a company ever doing this, but it legally can). On the otherhand, the FDA usually post approvals on its web-site but the post are delayed by a day.
W@G1 07/23/12 for a 07/25/12 close
65.22 Kookiekook
63.45 ... TFO
62.50 rayrohn
W@G1 07/23/12 for a 07/25/12 close
65.22 Kookiekook
63.45 ... TFO
Thank you Ray
Thank you Ray and Paul
Will history repeat itself.
The EMA(10) and MA(15) are very close to converging. The last time this occurred, they track themselves for a couple days and then the price of TLON took off. When these two indicators converge about month ago TLON was selling in the low $0.80's and quickly rose in price to over $1.40 in about two weeks time.
Here to hoping for a repeat.
W@G2 07/18/12 for a 07/20/12 close
64.13 Kookiekook
W@G1 07/16/12 for a 07/18/12 close
63.89 Kookiekook
W@G2 07/11/12 for a 07/13/12 close
63.98 Kookiekook
W@G1 07/09/12 for a 07/11/12 close
66.50 rayrohn
64.53 Kookiekook
Good W@G Farooq
W@G2 07/05/12 for a 07/06/12 close
64.33 Kookiekook
Good W@G Ray
A 2 Day WAG .......
W@G1 07/02/12 for a 07/03/12 close
64.36 Kookiekook
Good W@G Paul
W@G2 06/27/12 for a 06/29/12 close
62.13 Kookiekook
W@G1 06/25/12 for a 06/27/12 close
63.87 Kookiekook
61.50 rayrohn
W@G1 06/18/12 for a 06/20/12 close
62.89 Kookiekook
62.00 rayrohn
While you may be correct that some people have position themselves in a manner they believe will minimize the affect of the elections in Greece, I do believe a large part of the market is psychological. As such the election will have a temporary affect on the market which may be severe. A lot depends on the results and the talking heads interpretation of the meaning.
In my case, I have chosen to stay primarily in cash, occassionally taking a position to scalp but not holding anything long term. I will be changing that approach later this month or in July as I re-evaluate my opinion of where the market is headed.
Good W@G Farooq
Thank you Ray and Paul
W@G2 06/13/12 for a 06/15/12 close
62.63 Kookiekook
60.98 rayrohn
W@G1 06/11/12 for a 06/13/12 close
62.48 Kookiekook
Good W@G Paul
If you look at the NASDAQ composite chart, the DJIA chart and other broad market charts, the action on PGNX was the result of a market event not solely related to PGNX. Probably as a result to Bernarke's and the FEDS comments concerning the economy and events in Europe.
Good W@G Paul
W@G2 06/06/12 for a 06/08/12 close
61.23 Kookiekook
W@G1 06/04/12 for a 06/06/12 close
60.13 Kookiekook
59.50 rayrohn
Thank you Ray
Thank you Paul
Good W@G Farooq
W@G2 05/30/12 for a 06/01/12 close
61.26 Kookiekook
It is a 2 day W@G !!!
W@G1 05/29/12 for a 05/30/12 close
61.86 Kookiekook
Rgen -
While you are correct that the two most probable senarios are a CRL requiring another phase III study, or a CRL requiring months of investigation and paperwork and resubmittal, there are actually 5 possible senarios.
First is approval, very unlikely and less than 1% probable, we are dealing with the Federal Government and stranger things have happen.
Second minor but fatal flaws that caused the probable CRL. These flaws are being adressed by RGEN but will require resubmittal of the PDUFA. Maybe a 10% probability.
The third and fourth are as you state.
The fifth senario is that the entire PDUFA is based on erroneous data and not acceptable. This could well be a death sentence, but again would only have a 1% probability of occurring.
The inpact on RGEN of all 5 senarios would of course be different.
Senario one would see a doubling in price.
Senario two would see a slight increase in price. Senario 2 is possible given my belief that the FDA got ovewhelmed with work due to providing information and negotiating with the Drug industry over the newly passed Senate bill. Work associated with this bill, is the reason for the greater than normal extensions issued by the FDA so far this year.
The third senario, requiring reevaluation of all data has about a 44% chance of occurring. If this occurrs, I would expect no affect on the price as it is the expected resulted.
The 4th senario requiring a new phase III study has about a 55% chance of happening. This would result in a price loss of about 20-30%. But RGEN obviously knows if a new phase III will be required and have or are designing that study currently. Depending on the information needed and the study requirements this may require only a year to 18 months to resubmittal.
The fifth senario is very unlikely probably less than 1%. This would result in 60% loss in RGEN stock price.
I believe RGEN is working with the FDA to adress any all concerns of SecreFlo. In addition, the anticipated CRL if recieved is already 80-90% priced into the current stock price.
Currently, I do not own any RGEN but have and will continue to flip this stock as the oppurtunity presents itself.
RGEN - While the company expects a CRL from the FDA, as far as I can determine the PDUFA decision date of late June is still in affect. This might be a surprise (but I doubt it) and see approval. But even the anticipated CRL would hopefully provide some guidance as to the future of SecreFlo and this company. So a less than death CRL maybe result in a boost for the stock. Of course, you still have the possiblility of a price increase going into the PDUFA Date based on buying from the un-informed (ie particularly those that fail to do even the minimal DD before investing (we all know they exist)).
My broker and I-Hub both showed trades at 4:00:00 ET of 62.01. Even though I-Hub now shows the close at 62.07, so maybe it was a misprint on the ticker
Excellent W@G Ray. Best I can tell you were off by a penny.