Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
definitely looks like one to watch. Once in gulf the more north the more attention it will get.
Well, seems the dynamic duo has teamed up once again. Lets see how their words hold up when the big canes come
dramatic weather patterns coming? hurricanetrack.com thinks so
It has been very quiet over the last several days and this has been mainly due to fairly dry, stable conditions and strong upper level winds prevailing in the tropical Atlantic. With the exception of TD #2 which came on the heels of hurricane Alex, July has been nice and quiet, especially in the Atlantic Ocean. I do see signs though that things are about to change. Nothing drastic, as this is a slow process, but the changes are certainly there.
To start off, the Saharan Air Layer is beginning to loosen its grip over the extreme eastern Atlantic as the pressures begin to fall across the region. A very strong Azores High was in control for much of the month to date, now it is starting to fade some, allowing for less of a burst of winds coming off the dry, dusty continent of Africa. This will eventually allow the tropical waves to gain more moisture as they work westward, but as I mentioned, it will take time.
We can also see that the strong upper level trough which has been dominant over the Atlantic and Caribbean is starting to lift north and weaken. This will reduce the amount of shearing winds that tear the tops off of developing tropical cyclones. But this will be a slow process, not something that goes away in a day or two. The point is, this time of the season is typically very inactive. We are moving closer towards the climatological ramping up of the tropics and this season, it will likely be quite dramatic. We still have record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean. The Gulf of Mexico has cooled some but is obviously warm enough to support hurricane development. I think we have perhaps another week of quiet conditions before we begin to see the changes take hold and the tropics become more active. For now, enjoy the lull, it should stick around for a little while longer.
dramatic weather patterns coming? hurricanetrack.com thinks so
It has been very quiet over the last several days and this has been mainly due to fairly dry, stable conditions and strong upper level winds prevailing in the tropical Atlantic. With the exception of TD #2 which came on the heels of hurricane Alex, July has been nice and quiet, especially in the Atlantic Ocean. I do see signs though that things are about to change. Nothing drastic, as this is a slow process, but the changes are certainly there.
To start off, the Saharan Air Layer is beginning to loosen its grip over the extreme eastern Atlantic as the pressures begin to fall across the region. A very strong Azores High was in control for much of the month to date, now it is starting to fade some, allowing for less of a burst of winds coming off the dry, dusty continent of Africa. This will eventually allow the tropical waves to gain more moisture as they work westward, but as I mentioned, it will take time.
We can also see that the strong upper level trough which has been dominant over the Atlantic and Caribbean is starting to lift north and weaken. This will reduce the amount of shearing winds that tear the tops off of developing tropical cyclones. But this will be a slow process, not something that goes away in a day or two. The point is, this time of the season is typically very inactive. We are moving closer towards the climatological ramping up of the tropics and this season, it will likely be quite dramatic. We still have record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean. The Gulf of Mexico has cooled some but is obviously warm enough to support hurricane development. I think we have perhaps another week of quiet conditions before we begin to see the changes take hold and the tropics become more active. For now, enjoy the lull, it should stick around for a little while longer.
i told you volume would pick up!!
You say same sameo every year - going on 5 yrs now.
yea. but we are still early. look at the chart that shows hurricane activity and peaks and see date of july 10. Shows activity does not really pick up until later july and august could be insane. Of course thats a historical chart but a cat 3-5 could come anytime as it has in past and hit mainland
bill,
Looks like bid was at .08 or around there for most of day. Should come back up if buy stays where it is or higher. Some MM's keep the gap greater others smaller.
not really. last year it avg between .01 and .014 for jul and aug and there was no storms - what are you talking about. Yeah, we are below that but also last year there was more players - many are chasing the oil plays this year and are not doing nuch better. Canes have not even come yet except for one in la la land.
Workng with govt to market their products for oil spill
manchild
low grade hurricane striking no man's land
strong Africa waves next week? hurricane track thinks so
The remainder of the Atlantic and east Pacific are quiet for now. I do think we'll see some development between Africa and the Lesser Antilles next week. The waves of low pressure coming off of Africa are strong for this time of year and sea surface temps are running well above normal. Computer models do suggest a busy July which is to be expected considering how the season as a whole is foreacast to be.
hurricane status sometime tues
well spoken as a seasoned veteran. You can see from past charts that after 9/1 its a slippery slope mostly downhill. It is better to be out with your profits and if a good play does along after that you can jump in and out for a profit but i recommend that for seasoned players GLTY and GO NSMG.
sounds like good advice NYPD - thank you for your input. We know you moderated this sight for a time so that adds some weight to your words
Rhino - a must watch video on latest on Alex. Accuweather does not rule out possible northern turn and hit texas/lousiana. wait till commercial finishes
http://www.accuweather.com/video/90659509001/alex-will-re-intensifiy-again.asp
Rhino - a must watch video on latest on Alex. Accuweather does not rule out possible northern turn and hit texas/lousiana. wait till commercial finishes
http://www.accuweather.com/video/90659509001/alex-will-re-intensifiy-again.asp
NHC Alex track update - cat 2 possible bebore landfall
click here for track map http://www.hurricanetrack.com/Java2/westatl.html
Rhino, there were other weather experts that thought just like you about Alex possibly going north based on GFS and other models (see below). Good call, but now all models are in agreement that is not going to happen
NHC issued a great discussion tonight concerning Alex. There has been some buzz on the Internet about the GFS and other models showing Alex moving more north than originally thought. I believe from what I have read, including info from the NHC discussion tonight, that this is simply not going to happen. Alex is moving along generally as foreacst. Top winds are coming down now as it interacts with land. Once past the Yucatan in a day or so, the storm should regain its strength and in fact become a hurricane. Folks in Mexico along the western Gulf need to be ready for this. Alex is a huge storm with massive feeder bands pulling in warm, moist air from a vast expanse of water. A lot of rain has and will continue to fall since the storm is not moving that fast. And again, there is no indication at all that Alex will affect the oil disaster in the northern Gulf of Mexico, so please do not worry about that. I will have more here on Sunday by around Noon ET.
NHC Alex track update - cat 2 possible bebore landfall
click here for track map http://www.hurricanetrack.com/Java2/westatl.html
Rhino, there were other weather experts that thought just like you about Alex possibly going north based on GFS and other models (see below). Good call, but now all models are in agreement that is not going to happen
NHC issued a great discussion tonight concerning Alex. There has been some buzz on the Internet about the GFS and other models showing Alex moving more north than originally thought. I believe from what I have read, including info from the NHC discussion tonight, that this is simply not going to happen. Alex is moving along generally as foreacst. Top winds are coming down now as it interacts with land. Once past the Yucatan in a day or so, the storm should regain its strength and in fact become a hurricane. Folks in Mexico along the western Gulf need to be ready for this. Alex is a huge storm with massive feeder bands pulling in warm, moist air from a vast expanse of water. A lot of rain has and will continue to fall since the storm is not moving that fast. And again, there is no indication at all that Alex will affect the oil disaster in the northern Gulf of Mexico, so please do not worry about that. I will have more here on Sunday by around Noon ET.
NYPD - will you stop with this spot right on BS. ConceNtrate on your own stocks. The last one you got in and told me about my last check still at the same price you got in at a while back. Remember your posts on fannie may - i do - that this one was really going to take off - it did but the wrong way. Sorry to put some chinks in your armor - but you can take it.
Oh yea. Look at chart in ibox that shows cane intensity by month, we are just at the bottom of the hill being its still June. July is steeper and August will be insane.
Alex track update based on NHC
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/Java2/westatl.html
Alex track update based on NHC
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/Java2/westatl.html
weather underground says a blend of the models is probably right - not to left not to right after passing the Yucatan
The initial motion is rather uncertain but the best estimate is
300/09. A mid-level ridge is forecast to persist over the Gulf of
Mexico for the next 48 to 72 hours...therefore a general
west-northwestward motion is expected during that time...which
should bring the cyclone across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the
southern Gulf of Mexico. After 72 hours the track model guidance
diverges...with one group...including the HWRF and GFDL...taking
the system on a more northerly or northeasterly track. A second
group of guidance...including the GFS...ECMWF and NOGAPS keeps the
system on a more westerly track over the southern Gulf of Mexico.
The official forecast is a blend of these two.
weather underground says a blend of the models is probably right - not to left not to right after passing the Yucatan
The initial motion is rather uncertain but the best estimate is
300/09. A mid-level ridge is forecast to persist over the Gulf of
Mexico for the next 48 to 72 hours...therefore a general
west-northwestward motion is expected during that time...which
should bring the cyclone across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the
southern Gulf of Mexico. After 72 hours the track model guidance
diverges...with one group...including the HWRF and GFDL...taking
the system on a more northerly or northeasterly track. A second
group of guidance...including the GFS...ECMWF and NOGAPS keeps the
system on a more westerly track over the southern Gulf of Mexico.
The official forecast is a blend of these two.
yep. just watching fox news on the gulf oil situation and theior already telling the boats they may have to stay out of the area involved in oil cleanup area due to up coming weather and havoc it could play. they just do not want to take chances with peoples lives and make a bad situation worse.
yea - you are absolutely right. You have to separate the chaff from the wheat or as one says chew the meat and spit out the bones. But as moderator I say GO NSMG - one of the best hurricane plays today. And if anyone does not like that - tough. They can go elsewhere. And if they don't we just have to tolerate them like all the other boards do and abide the best we can with ADMIN rules. Not a perfect world (yet) but in the meantime lets make some money if we can
very wise words as always Rhino
yesterday 10%
chaaa-ching
Where you been man. i try to like everyone else but sometimes you have to expose his past to show his present and future agenda and person. Its sad some people are just that way. But hey - good advice. Hope you join us for while and invest wisely.
3 saints is so silly. just for laughs guy (and gals). i remember 3 saints saying over and over 1 year this is going down to .0001 and it went up to .05.
we all want the oil leak plugged. hurricanes or storms will definitely not help but if investors profit off it and want to help others they can support the oil cleanup effort, red cross, etc. through a donation from their profit.
totally agreed
and make money we will
3 saints does this every year, 5 years that i know off. Admin just says i have the option to put him on IGNORE and i hope everyone else is.
hurricanetrack on board with 93l
A large area of light winds aloft is setting in across the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the next several days and this could allow for the system, labeled 93L, to get going. The track suggests a movement across the Caribbean Sea and possibly towards the Yucatan peninsula. From there, the global models that recognize the potential for development turn the system northward in to the Gulf of Mexico. This is certainly going to cause a stir once news begins to spread of this potential. In fact, the very latest ECMWF model, linked here suggests we really need to keep an eye on the evolution of this feature. I am not going to sugar coat the reality here- there is potential for a significant storm or even a hurricane somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico over the next week. This is not a season to pretend the hurricanes away and worry about being sensational. Water temps are well above normal, ocean heat content is already very high and to see this kind of activity originating from an African tropical wave in June is very serious.
hurricanetrack on board with 93l
A large area of light winds aloft is setting in across the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the next several days and this could allow for the system, labeled 93L, to get going. The track suggests a movement across the Caribbean Sea and possibly towards the Yucatan peninsula. From there, the global models that recognize the potential for development turn the system northward in to the Gulf of Mexico. This is certainly going to cause a stir once news begins to spread of this potential. In fact, the very latest ECMWF model, linked here suggests we really need to keep an eye on the evolution of this feature. I am not going to sugar coat the reality here- there is potential for a significant storm or even a hurricane somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico over the next week. This is not a season to pretend the hurricanes away and worry about being sensational. Water temps are well above normal, ocean heat content is already very high and to see this kind of activity originating from an African tropical wave in June is very serious.