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ny udgave af nedenstående, det blev så langt, at jeg ikke turde læse så meget korrektion pga risikoen for at miste indlægget og det var mit sidste skud i går indtil klokken 6 her til morgen
små rettelser og forbedringer, så læs dette og ikke det første
de økonomiske sammenhænge globalt set og den nuværende konjunktur situation
den globale økonomi består af mange sammenhængende elemeter, primært geografiske regioner og brancher
grundlæggende er usa inde i en recession, hvor de traditionelle konjunkturmæssige sammenhænge virker - til en vis grad
boligbyggeri og bilsalg/produktion af amerikanske biler er faldet voldsomt med en svækkelse i væksten i forbruget til følge
det er den grundlæggende konjunktursammenhæng at når bilsalg/boligbyggeri stiger, stiger forbruget hurtigere og kapacitetsudnyttelsen stiger og fører til stigende investeringer og stigende råvareforbrug og højere råvarepriser, der så fører til stigende inflation og rentestigning og til sidst vil stigningerne i råvarepriserne og renterne få bilsalget/boligbyggeriet til at falde og der har vi været siden begyndelsen af 2007 i usa
så næste trin er at investeringerne falder og råvarepriserne falder? - ja hvis usa var et lukket system uden sammenhæng med resten af verden
for globalt set er bilsalget og boligbyggeriet fortsat med at stige, endda kraftigt både i kina og resten af alle de mange forskellige slags fattige lande, hvor der primært er 3 slags lande
1. de halvfattige eller halvrige, der ikke er så fattige som man tror og som producerer forbrugsgoder til eksport, men importerer råvarer, både energi, metaller og fødevarer mm - dette er primært kina og en del lande i asien som korea, taiwan, thailand, malaysia, vietnam mm østeuropa, tyrkiet mm og eksporten stiger stadig fordi man producerer billige produkter baseret på billig arbejdskraft, der tager markedsandele i hele verden
2. de halvfattige eller halvrige, der producerer mange råvarer, både olie, andre energiformer, metaller, fødevarer mm - dette er primært alle olielandende, både i mellemøsten, afrika, rusland/CIS mm og lande som sydafrika, australien, canada (de to er ikke halvrige, men meget rige), brazilien og en del andre lande i latinamerika, rusland/CIS, mange lande i afrika, asien mm
3. de ekstremt fattige, der har svært ved at komme igang med vækst fordi de ingen infrastruktur har og netop fordi de er fattige, men de har ofte uopdagede råvarer som potentielt kan dyrkes/udvindes og de udgør den sidste bastion af lande man med fordel kan flytte produktion til fordi lønniveauet er lavere end gruppe 1. der oplever stærkt stigende lønninger
så globalt set er situationen den
at det samlede globale system stadig er i en fase hvor bilsalget og boligbyggeriet stiger endda temmelig voldsomt samtidig med at investeringerne og råvarepriserne forlængst er inde i en fase med ekstrem vækst og stigende råvarepriser og inflationen og renterne stiger også rundt omkring
hvor står vi så?
investeringerne og råvarepriserne vil fortsætte med at stige sålænge bilsalget og boligbyggeriet samt det generelle forbrug stiger i de 3 grupper af fattige lande støttet af at bilsalg og boligbyggeriet i europa og japan ikke er faldet ret meget sammenlignet med USA
hvorfor stiger forbruget incl. bilsalget og boligbyggeriet så så meget i de fattige lande?
1. faktoren kina og mange andre lande i gruppe 1 er inde i en så dynamisk udvikling med eksportstigninger til hele verden incl. alle de andre fattige lande at væksten i levestandard og lønninger gør det muligt for flere og flere at købe bil, bolig og varige forbrugsgoder
lønstigninger er et svært begreb, fordi den normale måde at måle lønstigninger på er at sammenligne lønnen for samme type arbejde med lønnen året før
men når væksten er så stærk stiger antallet af vellønnede jobs så hurtigt at der kommer flere på hvert af de højere løntrin år for år, en effekt der ikke medtages i målingen af lønningerne fordi der bare hvert år kommer et markant forøget antale mennesker på de forskellige højere løntrin, bl.a. fordi investeringerne i flere virksomheder kræver et stigende antal ledende medarbejdere
så væksten skaber en selvforstærkende vækst i købekraften, der er vanskelig at kvæle med højere renter og priser, der samtidig er med at til øge værdierne for dem der har købt hus og andre langvarige forbrugsgoder incl. biler
bilparken er stadig ret lille i forhold til befolkningen og det samme med boligbestanden af huse i en tilstrækkelig god stand så man er inde i den S-kurve, hvor bilpark og boligbestand skal stige fra et lavt til et højt niveasu, hvilket altid foregår meget hurtigt analogt usa 1913-21, japan 1960-73, europa og usa 1948-1973, korea 1987-97 hvor man når en mætning af markedet allerede efter 10-20 år og oplever en strukturel vækst modsat den mere kendte cykliske vækst man har set i 1973-2003 i de rige lande og globalt set
kina er en væsentlig faktor her, fordi de har set en vækst i bilsalget fra 2 mio i 2000 til ca 11 mio her i 2008, medens bilparken stadig kun når 60 mio i 2008 sammenlignet med 230 mio i usa så væksten vil uden tvivl fortsætte i kinas bilsalg de kommende år med høje vækstrater og stigende energi/olie forbrug
2. denne vækst har været så voldsom at råvarepriserne er steget så meget at de fleste råvareproducerende lande oplever samme dynamik, hvor stigene råvarepriser øger aktiviteten i råvaresektoren, skaffer valuta til landet og dermed gør det muligt at føre en ekspansiv finanspolitik og der investeres meget i at udvikle råvareproduktionen og infrastrukturen dertil og med stærkt stigende lønninger i de sektorer er en rentestigning ikke nok til at opveje at der er mere købekraft
3. samtidig er levestandarden i 1 og 2 steget så meget sammenlignet med tiden i halfjerserne, at man hurtigere kan få en vækst, der opsuger den stigende valutaindtjening, dynamikken i væksten er oppe på et højere niveau fordi landende ikke mere er ludfattige, men bare halvfattige ligesom gruppe 1, hvor mange olielande i 1974 befandt sig i gruppe 3, der har meget vanskeligere ved at komme igang med væksten, der mangler en 'kim' at starte ud fra
4. gruppe 3 landende oplever meget stor interesse for at investere i at udforske efter råstoffer både fra kinas side og fra andre sider
så der bliver sat en vækst igang i gruppe 3 lande fordi alle råvaregrupper er så ekstremt højt oppe i pris, at mange af gruppe 3 lande er igang med en udvikling hvor også de bidrager til den globale vækst pga råstofboomet
så konklusionen er at det globale økonomiske system netop viser på alle indikatorer, at bilsalg, boligbyggeri og forbrug stadig boomer samtidig med at boomet i investeringer og råvarepriser også fortsætter
så man kan sige at ægget denne gang kom før hønen fordi råvarepriserne og investeringerne trækker forbruget op i de lande, der producerer råvarerne og råvarer produceres jo også i usa, kina og andre lande, der ikke defineres som råvareeksporterende lande, men som råvareimporterende
men det er klart at denne udvikling fører til fortsat inflation og pres på at få flere rentestigninger
så det er usikkert hvor længe denne tilstand kan holde
men rentesænkningen i usa, brazilien og indonesien og en række andre lande i 2007 har bidraget til at man godt kan regne med 2-3 år mere med dette strukturelle boom, som jeg kalder det
og hvad der sker derefter skal man nok ikke tænke for konkret på endnu fordi den såkaldte strukturelle vækst nævnt ovenfor i de fattige lande vil fortsætte i de næste mange år, mere end 20, så det er en langvarig vækst, hvor kun råvarepriserne som man nu ser med olien kan lægge en dæmper på væksten, hvis priserne stiger så meget at både renten og inflationen kan dæmpe æksten
men jeg regner med at aktierne er ved at finde ud af ovennævnte og at det er derfor der er så meget styrke i aktiemarkedet, som jeg venter vil fortsætte i resten af 2008 og det meste af 2009, men
vel at mærke mest i infrastruktur til råvarer, maskiner, og selve råvarerne og så aktier i de fattige lande, der har gavn af den positive udvikling medens man skal holde sig fra finansaktier og boligrelaterede aktier i usa og europa og i det hele taget finansaktier globalt set indtil videre
den seneste udvikling i fredags, hvor aktierne falder kraftigt i usa fordi der kommer arbejdsløshedstal for usa, der viser den recession, som har været der i mere end 1 år allerede, men som ikke rigtigt er gået op for folk endnu
udløser den rygmarvsreaktion hver gang at man tror at en recession i usa vil føre til recession i resten af verden
og det er netop forkert, så derfor vil aktierne fortsætte stigningerne pga den stærke fundamentale udvikling globalt set, men få nervøse anfald hver gang der kommer nøgletal i usa, der ser dårlige ud, det er den globale markedspykologi, der er styret af udviklingen i usa, men ikke den fundamentale udvikling
så der kæmpes en kamp mellem markedsprykologien og den fundamentale udvikling, hvor markedspsykologien løb grassat i december/januar, medens de fundamentale kræfter har fået markedet til at vise styrke for alvor siden midten af marts
de økonomiske sammenhænge globalt set og den nuværende konjunktur situation
den globale økonomi består af mange sammenhængende elemeter, primært geografiske regioner og brancher
grundlæggende er usa inde i en recession, hvor de traditionelle konjunkturmæssige sammenhænge virker - til en vis grad
boligbyggeri og bilsalg/produktion af amerikanske biler er faldet voldsomt med en svækkelse i væksten i forbruget til følge
det er den grundlæggende konjunktursammenhæng at når bilsalg/boligbyggeri stiger, stiger forbruget hurtigere og kapacitetsudnyttelsen stiger og fører til stigende investeringer og stigende råvareforbrug og højere priser,d er så fører til rentestigning og til sidst vil stigningerne i råvarepriserne og renterne få bilsalget/boligbyggeriet til at falde og der har vi været siden begyndelsen af 2006
så næste trin er at investeringerne falder og råvarepriserne falder? - ja hvis usa var et lukket system
for globalt set er bilsalget og boligbyggeriet fortsat med at stige, endta kraftige både i kina og resten af alle de mange forskellige slags fattige lande, hvor der primært er 3 slags lande
1. de halvfattige eller halvrige, der ikke er så fattige som man tror og som producerer forbrugsgoder til eksport, men importerer råvarer, både energi, metaller, og fødevarer - dette er primært kina og en del lande i asien som korea, taiwan, thailand, malaysia og eksporten stiger stadig fordi man producerer billige produkter baseret på billig arbejdskraft
2. de halvfattige eller halvrige, der producerer mange råvarer, både olie, andre energiformer, metaller, fødevarer mm - dette er primært alle olielandende, både i mellemøsten, afrika, rusland/CIS mm og labde som sydafrika, australien, canada, brazilien og en del andre lande i latinamerika, rusland/CIS, mange lande i afrika mm
3. de ekstremt fattige, der har svært ved at komme igang med vækst fordi de ingen infrastruktur har og netop fordi de er fattige, men de har ofte uopdagede råvarer som potentielt kan dyrkes og de udgør den sidste bastion af lande man med fordel kan flytte produktion til fordi lønniveauet er lavere end gruppe 1. der pålever stærkt stigende lønninger
sp globalt set er situationen den
at det samlede system stadig er i en fase hvor bilsalget og boligbyggeriet stiger samtidig med at investeringerne og råvarepriserne forlængst er inde i en fase med ekstrem vækst og stigende råvarepriser og inflationen og renterne stiger også rundt omkring
hvor står vi så?
investeringerne og råvarepriserne vil fortsætte med at stige sålænge bilsalget og boligbyggeriet samt det generelle forbrug stiger i de 3 grupper af fattige lande støttet af at bilsalg og boligbyggeriet i europa og japan ikke er faldet ret meget sammenlignet med USA
hvorfor stiger forbruget incl. bilsalget og boligbyggeriet så så meget i de fattige lande?
1. faktoren kina og mange andre lande i gruppe 1 er inde i en så dynamisk udvikling med eksportstigninger til heele verden incl. alle de andre fattige lande at væksten i levestandard og lønninger gør det muligt for flere og flere at købe bil, bolig og varige forbrugsgoder
lønstigninger er et svært begreb, fordi den normale måde at måle lønstigninger på er at sammenligne lønnen for samme type arbejde med lønnen året før
men når væksten er så stærk stiger antallet af vellønnede jobs så hurtigt at der kommer flere på hvert af de højere løntrin år for år, en effekt der ikke medtages i målingen af lønningerne
så væksten skaber en selvforstærkende vækst i købekraften, der er vanskelig at kvæle med højere renter og priser, der samtidig er med at til øge værdierne for dem der har købt hu s og andre langvarige forbrugsgoder incl. biler
2. denne vækst har været så voldsom at råvarepriserne er steget så meget at de fleste råvareproducerende lande oplever samme dynamik, hvor stigene råvarepriser øger aktiviteten i råvaresektoren, skaffer valuta til landet og dermed gør det muligt at føre en ekspansiv finanpolitik og man investerer meget i at udvikle råvareproduktionen og infrastrukturen dertil og med stærkt stigende lønninger i de sektorer er en rentestigning ikke nok til at opveje at der er mere købekraft
3. samtidig er levestandarden i 1 og 2 steget så meget sammenlignet med tiden i halfjerserne, at man hurtigere kan få en vækst, der opsuger den stigende valutaindtjening, dynamikken i væksten er oppe på et højere niveau fordi landende ikke mere er ludfattige, men bare halvfattige ligesom gruppe 1, hvor mange olielande i 1974 befandt sig i gruppe 3, der har meget vanskeligere ved at komme igang med væksten, der mangler en 'kim' at starte ud fra
4. gruppe 3 landende oplever meget stor interesse for at investere i at udforske efter råstoffer både fra kinas side og fra andre sider
så der bliver sat en vækst igang i gruppe 3 lande fordi alle råvaregrupper er så ekstremt højt oppe i pris, at mange af gruppe 3 lande er igang med en udvikling hvor også de bidrager til den globale vækst pga råstofboomet
så konklusionen er at det globale økonomiske system netop viser på alle indikatorer, at bilsalg, boligbyggeri og forbrug stadig boomer samtidig med at boomet i investeringer og råvarepriser også fortsætter
så man kan sige at ægget denne gang kom før hønen fordi råvarepriserne og investeringerne trækker forbruget op i de lande, der producerer råvarerne og råvarer produceres jo også i usa, kina og andre lande, der ikke defineres som råvareeksporterende lande, men som råvareimporterende
men det er klart at denne udvikling fører til fortsat inflation og pres på at få flere rentestigninger
så det er usikkert hvor længe denne tilstand kan holde
men renteasænkningen i usa, brazilien og indonesien og en række andre lande i 2007 har bidraget til at man godt kan regne med 2-3 år mere med dette strukturelle boom, som jeg kalder det
og hvad der sker derefter skal man nok ikke tænke for konkret om endnu
men jeg regner med at aktierne er ved at finde ud af ovennævnte og at det er derfor der er så meget styrke i aktiemarkedet, som jeg venter vil fortsætte i resten af 2008 og det meste af 2009, men
vel at mærke mest i infrastruktur til råvarer, maskiner, og selve råvarerne og så aktier i de fattige lande, der har gavn af den positive udvikling
JERUSALEM (Reuters) - An Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites looks "unavoidable" given the apparent failure of sanctions to deny Tehran technology with bomb-making potential, one of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's deputies said on Friday.
"If Iran continues with its program for developing nuclear weapons, we will attack it. The sanctions are ineffective," Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz told the mass-circulation Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper.
"Attacking Iran, in order to stop its nuclear plans, will be unavoidable," said the former army chief who has also been defense minister.
It was the most explicit threat yet against Iran from a member of Olmert's government, which, like the Bush administration, has preferred to hint at force as a last resort should U.N. Security Council sanctions be deemed a dead end.
Iran has defied Western pressure to abandon its uranium enrichment projects, which it says are for peaceful electricity generation rather than bomb-building. The leadership in Tehran has also threatened to retaliate against Israel -- believed to have the Middle East's only atomic arsenal -- and U.S. targets in the Gulf for any attack on Iran.
Mofaz also said in the interview that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has called for Israel to be wiped off the map, "would disappear before Israel does."
A spokesman for Prime Minister Ehud Olmert did not address Mofaz's comments directly but said that "all options must remain on the table" and said more could be done to put financial pressure on Tehran.
"Israel believes strongly that while the U.N. sanctions are positive, much more needs to be done to pressure the regime in Tehran to cease its aggressive nuclear program," spokesman Mark Regev said. Continued...
"We believe the international community should be considering further tangible steps such as embargoing refined petroleum headed for Iran, sanctions against Iranian businessmen traveling abroad, tightening the pressure on Iranian financial institutions and other such steps," he added.
Mofaz's remarks came as he and several other senior members of Olmert's Kadima Party prepare for a possible run for top office should a corruption scandal force the Israeli prime minister to step down.
Iranian-born Mofaz has been a main party rival of the Israeli prime minister, particularly following the 2006 elections when Olmert was forced to hand the defense portfolio to Labour, his main coalition partner, at Mofaz's expense.
Mofaz, who is also designated as a deputy prime minister, has remained privy to Israel's defense planning. He is a member of Olmert's security cabinet and leads regular strategic coordination talks with the U.S. State Department.
Israeli planes destroyed Iraq's nuclear reactor in 1981.
A similar Israeli sortie over Syria last September razed what the U.S. administration said was a nascent nuclear reactor built with North Korean help. Syria denied having any such facility.
Independent analysts have questioned, however, whether Israel's armed forces can take on Iran alone, as its nuclear sites are numerous, distant and well-fortified.
(Additional reporting by Ori Lewis; Editin
virker den her?, det er fragtrater for vlcc'er, det er samme princip
http://www.ssyonline.com/_datas/Tempimages/177422.png
sol og sand fra sarara
Africa's deserts could supply solar electricity to continent: experts
21 hours ago
NAIROBI (AFP) — Solar power from Africa's deserts could supply all 600 million citizens currently without electricity and even export power to Europe, a green energy conference in Nairobi heard Thursday.
The ferocious desert sun could provide the energy equivalent of 1.5 barrels of oil per square kilometre, said Gerhard Knies, project manager for Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation (TREC), at a meeting of nine African states.
"The largest source of energy is the solar radiation (and) the best place to receive solar radiation is the desert," he told reporters at the start of meeting of 20 parliamentarians in Kenya.
"Deserts get 700 times more energy per year than all human kind is using," he explained.
"It is as if a layer of 25 centimetres (10 inches) of oil is falling down in the deserts year after year."
The legislators from Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Rwanda Tanzania, Uganda and the Seychelles are at the conference to discuss energy access for the poor.
"There is great need to provide the poorest people in east Africa with electricity," said Nicholas Dunlop, founder of the "e-parliament" conference.
"But at the same time there is an urgent need to combat climate change."
Dunlop explained that the technology needed to provide solar thermal energy was simple and clean compared to extracting and processing fossil fuels.
"A combination of mirrors and pipes to concentrate the sun's heat to boil water and drive an old fashion steam turbine."
"One you have built your mirrors and pipes ... your costs are finished. The good Lord does the rest," he said.
He added that solar energy costs were steadily coming down as the industry expanded, notably in Europe, while "oil is famously going through the roof."
"Now renewable energy is considered as a supplement to fossil fuels. We have to look at fossil fuels as supplements for renewable (energy)," said Knies.
Stephen Karekezi of the Environment and Development Network for Africa said high oil prices were fueling the drive for alternative and cleaner energy sources.
"We are quite excited by this opportunity... that the high oil prices begin to turn our policy makers to actually contribute and push for renewable (energy)."
CALGARY, Alberta, June 5 (Reuters) - Production from Alberta's oil sands climbed to an average 1.32 million barrels a day last year, a 5 percent rise over 2006 and could get to 3.2 million per day by 2017, the province's energy regulator said on Thursday.
In its annual reserves and supply-demand report, Alberta's Energy Resources Conservation Board said the province's output of tar-like bitumen rose to a total 482 million barrels in 2007 and could rise above one billion barrels within nine years.
Production from Canada's oil sands region, boasting the largest oil reserves outside of the Middle East, is ramping up to meet demand from U.S. refiners, with more than C$100 billion ($98 billion) in projects under construction or on the drawing board.
The board's report said that the total amount of bitumen -- a tar-like form of heavy oil that needs upgrading to be useful -- in the province is 1.7 trillion barrels. However only 173.2 billion barrels of that total can be economically produced, an estimated 500 million barrels below the board's 2006 reserves tally because of production.
The province's conventional oil output, on the decline for years as large fields age and big new discoveries become increasingly rare, fell 3.5 percent last year to 524,800 barrels a day.
Alberta producers replaced only 68 percent of their conventional oil production with new discoveries last year, pushing reserves down 3.5 percent from 2006 to 1.5 billion barrels.
In 2007, the province's combined output of bitumen, conventional oil and natural gas liquids rose 3 percent to 1.9 million barrels per day, the regulator said.
Natural gas production dropped slightly to a total 4.7 trillion cubic feet from reserves of 38 trillion cubic feet.
Alberta also has 37 billion tonnes of coal, according to the board. ($1=$1.02 Canadian) (Reporting by Scott Haggett; editing by Rob Wilson)
Brazilian Oil Finds May Cost $240 Billion to Develop (Update1)
By Joe Carroll
June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's oil discoveries, including the Western Hemisphere's largest in three decades, may cost $100 billion more to develop than the industry's most costly field.
The Tupi deposit and nearby offshore prospects probably will cost $240 billion to exploit, said Peter Wells, director of U.K. research firm Neftex Petroleum Consultants Ltd. and a former Royal Dutch Shell Plc exploration manager. The total exceeds the $136 billion estimate for Kazakhstan's Kashagan field, led by Eni SpA, and would be enough to fund the U.S. space program for 14 years.
Brazil's state-controlled Petroleo Brasileiro SA will need to enlist international producers such as Exxon Mobil Corp. to raise financing for the platforms and pipelines required to reach crude trapped beneath six miles (10 kilometers) of water and rock, Wells said in a telephone interview. The prospects may hold $6 trillion of petroleum and make Brazil one of the world's 10 largest oil producers.
``This oil is going to be difficult to get out of the ground and it will cost a lot,'' said Wells, who also was a chief negotiator for BP Plc in Azerbaijan. Petroleo Brasileiro ``will need the capital expertise only found with the world's largest, most experienced oil companies.''
Tupi, the biggest discovery in the Americas since 1976, will start pumping in April 2009, Chief Executive Officer Jose Sergio Gabrielli said in an interview last month. Gabrielli declined to estimate development costs for Tupi and adjacent fields, and a spokesman said yesterday that the company wouldn't comment on Wells's projection.
Tupi and Friends
The $240 billion estimate assumes there are four to seven similar prospects nearby and includes costs to drill wells, lay pipelines and build production platforms over a period of about 20 years, Wells said.
Tupi alone could cost $100 billion, said Wells, part of a Neftex team doing a six-year study to map all of the world's petroleum basins.
Cambridge Energy Research Associates, the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based consulting firm headed by Daniel Yergin, said the Tupi-area fields will cost $200 billion to $240 billion. Costs are rising as producers compete for labor and equipment with oil prices above $120 a barrel. Deepwater drilling rigs are renting for more than $600,000 a day in some cases.
The Brazil fields may hold as much as 50 billion barrels of crude, Wells said. That's more than the reserves of Libya.
Petrobras preferred shares rose 0.8 percent to 45.62 reais in Sao Paulo trading. The stock has gained 30 percent since Nov. 8, when the company announced the size of the Tupi find. Exxon Mobil Corp.'s shares were little changed in the same period.
Petrobras's market cap of about $269 billion makes it the world's seventh-largest company by market value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Rigs Ordered
Petrobras, as Rio de Janeiro-based Petroleo Brasileiro is known, already has leased about 80 percent of the world's deepest-drilling offshore rigs and plans to hire 14,000 engineers, geologists and drillers within the next three years, Gabrielli said.
The company announced plans last month to place orders with shipbuilders for 40 new drilling rigs and production platforms that will cost about $30 billion.
``Petrobras will probably face stiff challenges in this endeavor, as there are significant hurdles to overcome in terms of acquiring basic materials, people and rig equipment,'' said Stephen Ellis, an analyst at Morningstar Inc. in Chicago.
Petrobras will revise its $22.5 billion-a-year capital budget because it was drafted before engineers realized the size of Tupi's recoverable reserves, which may be equivalent to 8 billion barrels of oil, Gabrielli said. At $240 billion, the price tag would be more than the annual economic output of Thailand, Ireland and Malaysia.
20% Gas
The Brazilian discoveries contain about twice as much natural gas in each barrel of crude as reservoirs in the Gulf of Mexico and West Africa, increasing the complexity and expense of the projects, Wells said.
Tupi is about 80 percent crude and 20 percent gas, said Wells, a University of Exeter-trained geologist. For each barrel of oil, there's 700 to 1,000 cubic feet of gas.
``Gas is an important cost consideration because they have to decide whether to reinject it back into the reservoir or construct a rather large pipeline to take it to another destination where it can be used,'' said Candida Scott, a senior director at Cambridge Energy Research Associates.
The high wax content of Tupi's crude and the presence of carbon dioxide, which can damage pipes, also may raise costs, Wells said.
BG Group
Reading, U.K.-based BG Group Plc, which owns 25 percent stakes in Tupi and an offshore field known as Parati, and 30 percent of Carioca, hasn't provided cost projections. Carioca, which neighbors Tupi, may hold 33 billion barrels of crude, a Brazilian oil regulator said in April.
``It's really simply too early to make an estimate of costs,'' BG spokeswoman Jo Thethi said.
Irving, Texas-based Exxon Mobil plans to begin drilling its first exploratory well off Brazil's coast in the third quarter.
``It's a very large area, very difficult to image and it's going to cost a lot of money to develop,'' Chief Executive Officer Rex Tillerson told reporters after the company's May 28 shareholders meeting in Dallas.
nu får dem der tror at hele verden er styret af nedgangen i usa noget mere at bekymre sig for
og de tidligere data er revideret ned
så man er i fuld gang med at rekonstruere fortidens data så man finder ud af at der var recession allerede i 2007 og ind i 2008
det er morsomt at revideringer af fortidens data kan lave om på fortiden
det er ikke den virkelige verden, man beskriver, når man kommenterer udviklingen
kvaliteten af data er på niveau med toiletterne i kina - det rene lort på gulvet
Unemployment rate jumps to 5.5 percent in May
Friday June 6, 8:51 am ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Unemployment rate jumps to 5.5 percent in May, biggest rise since 1986; payrolls cut again
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The nation's unemployment rate jumped to 5.5 percent in May -- the biggest monthly rise since 1986 -- as nervous employers cut 49,000 jobs.
The latest snapshot of business conditions showed a deeply troubled economy, with dwindling job opportunities in a time of continuing hardship in the housing, credit and financial sectors.
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With employers worried about a sharp slowdown and their own prospects, they clamped down on hiring in May, said Friday's report from the Labor Department. The unemployment rate soared from 5 percent in April to 5.5 percent in May. That was the biggest one-month jump in the rate since February 1986. The increase left the jobless rate at its highest since October 2004.
The big jump in the unemployment rate surprised economists who were forecasting a tick-up to 5.1 percent. Payroll losses, however, weren't as deep as the 60,000 that analysts were bracing for. Still, job losses in both March and April turned out to be larger than the government previously reported. Employers now have cut payrolls for five straight months.
The 5.5 percent rate is relatively moderate judged by historical standards. Yet, there was no question that employers last month sharply cut jobs in manufacturing, construction, retailing and professional and businesses services. Those losses swamped gains elsewhere, including in the education and health fields, government and leisure and hospitality.
The government said the number of unemployed people grew by 861,000 in May -- rising to 8.5 million. The over-the-month jump in unemployment reflected more workers losing their jobs as well as an increase in those coming into the job market to look for work, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.
A year ago, the number of unemployed stood at 6.9 million and the jobless rate was 4.5 percent.
A trio of crises -- housing, credit and financial -- have rocked the economy. That's caused economic growth to slow to a crawl as businesses and consumers have tightened their belts. Spiraling energy costs are another negative force.
The country's economic problems are a top concern for voters -- and thus for President Bush, lawmakers on Capitol Hill and those vying to win the White House this fall.
So far this year, the government said, job losses have totaled 324,000.
Workers with jobs, however, saw modest gains.
Average hourly earnings for jobholders rose to $17.94 in May, up 0.3 percent from the previous month. Economists were forecasting a 0.2 percent gain. Over the last 12 months, wages have grown by 3.5 percent..
With food and energy prices marching upward, paychecks aren't stretching as far. Although tax rebates helped to energize shoppers and give major retailers better sales in May, analysts still believe that anxious consumers will be keeping a close watch on their purchases and their budgets in the months ahead.
Worried about inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has signaled that the central bank's rate-cutting campaign, which commenced last September to help bolster the economy, is probably over for now.
Fed officials and the Bush administration are hoping that the Fed's powerful doses of rate reductions and the government's $168 billion stimulus package, including tax rebates for people and tax breaks for businesses, will pull the economy out of its deep funk in the second half of this year.
Even if that happens, the unemployment rate is expected to climb to 6 percent or higher early next year. Employers won't want to ramp up hiring until they feel more sure that an economic recovery has strong legs.
jo jo, det er også derfor jeg bruger tid på at svare
men et endnu mere kvalificeret modspil ville være endnu bedre
jeg har lige opdaget at en af de aktier jeg følger i kina er faldet fra 1 til 0.3
og jeg har aldrig købt den
den laver noget med energi engineering og olie, men det er vel ikke den slags virksomheder du besøger
så har jeg opdaget at de har overtaget et skibsværft, der først lige har bygget 2 skibe i 2007
men regner med at bygge 12 skibe i 2008
og de udbygger med 4 dokke, der hver især kan bygge op til 300.000 DWT skibe
og det er klart at i en opstarts fase koster det penge at bygge et sådant værft op selvom de får rigeligt med cashflow fra deres eksisterende aktiviteter, der bl. a handler om offshore og FOS skibe er indtjeningen gået lidt tilbage
så mon ikke den ville være værd at købe fordi de snart skovler penge hjem på bygningen af alle de skibe + reparation af skibe, så jeg ville gerne høre din mening om du tror at de skibe de bygger også bare er dårlig kvalitet
jeg analyserer den grundigt og vil måske købe noget i den senere, men forløbig er jeg godt tilfreds med de maritime og energirelaterede aktier jeg har i singapore, australien og norge, UK, usa, canada og andre steder, de klarer sig rigtigt pænt
men en aktie i det segment, der er faldet fra 1 til 0.3, det er da lidt af et tilbud
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil rose by more than $2 a barrel to above $130 on Friday, bringing gains in the last two days to $8 as the U.S. dollar weakened on signals the European Central Bank may raise interest rates this year.
Comments from Israel's transport minister that an attack on Iranian nuclear sites looked "unavoidable" given the apparent failure of sanctions to deny Tehran technology with bomb-making potential also helped drive prices higher.
This was the most explicit threat yet against Iran from Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's government.
U.S. light crude for July delivery was up $2.46 at $130.25 a barrel by 1018 GMT.
Oil surged $6 in after-hours trading on Thursday in the U.S., erasing two days of sharp losses triggered by worries that high oil prices were starting to dent demand.
Crude hit a record high of $135 last month.
London Brent crude rose $2.18 cents to $129.72.
Analysts said the dollar's weakness in the wake of comments from the ECB sparked a rush to cover oversold positions. Continued...
North Sea could see second oil boom due to huge unexplored reserves
By Andy Bloxham
Last Updated: 1:41AM BST 05/06/2008
The rising price of oil could spark a second North Sea exploration boom to drain previously inaccessible reserves which experts estimate could run to 30 billion barrels.
The amount of fuel still left in the oilfields could be the equivalent of all that has been extracted since they were first exploited in the 1970s; enough to last another 44 years.
Experts explained that the high price of oil meant that it was now financially viable for firms to invest the vast sums required to remove it from depths and pressures that were previously too expensive.
Academics said up to 300 more fields around the British coasts could also bear fruit, as large areas of the UK's coast have never been fully examined.
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Industry giants like BP and Shell are unlikely to do the work, though, as the 'new' fields are smaller, which means they are easier for smaller firms – with lower overheads – to move in and exploit.
The claims came as First Minister Alex Salmond, of the Scottish National Party, reiterated his demands for Scotland to get a share of increased North Sea oil taxes in a letter to Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
Chancellor Alistair Darling has rejected the SNP's argument, arguing that a slowing economy meant that other sources of tax revenue, like stamp duty on house sales, could shrink.
The SNP believes the industry has covered up the extent of oil reserves to avoid greater taxation.
Professor Alex Kemp, a petroleum economics expert at Aberdeen University, said: "The remaining reserves could be 20 to 22 billion barrels equivalent and on optimistic estimates could be over 30. So there still is a substantial amount left."
Professor Peter Odell, of Erasmus University in the Netherlands, said: "It's not quite as much as we've used already but it's not far short."
Last month, an independent British firm called Dana Petroleum announced it had found a new North Sea oilfield at a place called West Rinnes.
kina er kendetegnet ved en rivende udvikling, hvor en meget stor del af produktionen er domineret/ejet/JV med store kinesiske virksomheder af store multinationale selskaber i de rige lande, korea mm og de skal nok sørge for at kvaliteten af det de producerer i kina er i orden og der er også mange kinesiske mærkevarer med en dominerende del af produktionen i deres respektive sektorer
men når væksten er så høj og det hele boomer er der altid masser af småspekulanter og små virksomheder, der udnytter boomet til at starte tvivlsomme virksomheder af tvivlsom kvalitet
men dem skal man heller ikke handle med så det er spild af tid at besøge dem og forsøge at handle med dem og det forstår jeg slet ikke at du gider at bruge din tid på, man skal kun handle med de større selskaber, der er anerkendt - det er dig der bevæger dig ned på et lav kvalitets niveau når du overhovedet besøger den slags virksomheder og du gør det vel også bare for at score en hurtig profit eller billige penge
og mht til toilet og bad er det jo klart at med en rivende vækst i levestandarden og råd ril at købe forbrugsgoder
bygger man nye boliger på livet løs
men man kan ikke forny en boligmasse, der har været grundlagdet for at kineserne kunne få tag over hovedet også for flere år siden
så derfor vil der statistisk set ikke være nok nye boliger forløbigt til alle så derfor bliver mange kinesere nødt til at blive boende hvor de har boet i mange år
og at der ikke er toilet eller bad siger ikke en skid om standarden for nygyggeri og udviklingen for de kinesere, der køber nye huse og nye biler og mange nye forbrugsgoer
men da det er et mindretal, er resten nødt til at blive i det gamle slum indtil man får fornyet dem også
og så stiger boligbyggeriet endnu mere, men det tager lang tid, selv et boligbyggeri på 18 mio boliger om året, altså mange gange byggeriet i usa kan ikke bygge mere end 200 mio boliger på 10 år og det er stadig kun boliger til en lille del af befolningen og væksten i boligbyggeriet de seneste 10 år betyder jo at gennemsnittet ikke har været mere end måske 8 mio om året de sidste 10 år alså stadig kun 80 mio boliger og derfor er der ikke plads til at man bare lige kan flytte fra gammelt slum til nybyggeri
men jeg er snart træt af den diskussion
den fører ingen vegne hen
jeg synes ikke du visr særlig god evne til at forstå udviklingen gurli margrethe
Some European Energy Companies
Look to Russia for Growth
By ELENA MURINA
June 6, 2008
MOSCOW -- Several European companies are making big bets on Russia's power sector, and hoping that a wide-ranging deregulation program will help their wagers pay off.
Fortum
Fortum's push into Russia includes this power plant in Chelyabinsk.
Hunting for growth outside of stagnating Western European markets, Italy's Enel SpA, Finland's Fortum Oyj and Germany's E.On AG and RWE AG have all invested hundreds of millions of euros in the privatization of Russia's electricity sector over the past year. Russia hopes that the sales will boost investment in new generating capacity to power Russia's rapidly growing economy.
E.On has so far invested the most, spending €4.6 billion ($7.1 billion) for 76% of wholesale generator OAO OGK-4. Fortum paid €2.1 billion for a 76% stake in regional operator OAO TGK-10, Enel acquired 60% of OAO OGK-5 for €2.6 billion, and RWE -- the most recent European player to join the fray -- agreed to buy 43% of OAO TGK-2 together with a Russian petrochemical firm for about $800 million.
In tandem with the selloff, Russia is revamping rules governing the sector, phasing out Soviet-era price controls over industrial and household sales. Despite delays in these long-awaited changes, unexpected new fees and the looming shadow of inflation, European utilities are confident the government will take the steps required for them to capitalize fully on their new assets.
"Liberalization will in many ways go further than in most European countries," said Tapio Kuula, deputy chief executive of Fortum. "That in particular makes Russia attractive for investment."
Unlike earlier privatizations in many Western European nations, Russia will retain control of only the country's power grids and hydroelectric capacity, allowing private investors to get their hands on almost all of the country's Soviet-era gas- and coal-fired power generators. The terms require the new investors to modernize the plants and increase their generating capacity.
These assets -- bought from former electricity monopoly RAO Unified Energy System, or UES, which will cease to exist July 1 -- are potentially very lucrative in light of Russia's huge need for more power.
"Demand for electricity where OGK-5 operates is rising by 6% a year -- more than twice the rate in Italy," said Carlo Tamburi, Enel's head of international operations.
UES said countrywide demand rose 5.1% in the first quarter from a year earlier, despite an unusually warm winter. The hunger for more power is largely from booming industries like mining and construction, as well as the constantly improving living standards of the country's 140 million people.
But to make a profit from their new Russian assets, the foreign utilities are relying on a major relaxation of the rules that govern power sales. The government has already pledged to liberalize prices fully by 2011, and about a quarter of electricity is already being sold at unregulated prices.
The authorities also plan to launch a so-called "capacity" market, in which generators will be able to sell existing or potential future generating capacity to large industrial customers -- similar to a wholesale power market, as such sales are called in Western countries.
This market is of particular importance to the foreign utilities because it will guarantee a long-term revenue stream as they implement the billion-dollar-plus investment programs that the former monopoly insisted on as a condition of entry into the sector.
UES has made repeated assurances that what it calls a transitional period will be launched in July, deregulating a quarter of capacity contracts until 2011, when the remainder will also be fully liberalized.
But the government missed an initial Jan. 1 deadline in getting the capacity market off the ground, a factor that has spooked potential investors in the last remaining unsold utility, OAO OGK-1, in which shares valued at about $5 billion were being offered.
That company, the country's largest wholesale generator, had initially attracted interest from the likes of Electricité de France. But the only eventual bidder was a consortium headed by Russian tycoon Viktor Vekselberg's IES-Holding, which submitted a bid that UES last week deemed too low, pushing the sale back until later this year.
"Delays in launching the capacity market seriously deter investment into the sector," said Mikhail Slobodin, the chief executive of IES-Holding, which controls four regional power-generating companies and other power-sector assets.
But that market isn't the only cause for concern. Mr. Slobodin also cites last year's introduction of fees for generators to connect to transmission grids, a relatively unexpected step that could add up to 15% to the cost of the investment programs foreign utilities have pledged to implement.
In addition, some market participants have warned that the government -- under pressure to rein in double-digit inflation -- could try to tame rising electricity tariffs should power prices increase substantially over the coming years.
David Herne, who heads investment fund Halcyon Advisors, which makes large investments in Russian power companies, said there is a risk the government will reintroduce price caps, but he thinks it's small.
"Luckily, there are very few mechanisms the government can use to limit electricity generators' profitability. Wholesale prices will be liberalized and it would be difficult to introduce caps," Mr. Herne said.
Miners and exporters are hit
as Trichet hints at rate boost
By SARAH TURNER
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL EUROPE
June 6, 2008
LONDON -- Miners lost ground Thursday and exporters were hit after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet hinted that interest rates could rise next month.
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index fell 0.1% to 316.61.
Following the ECB's decision Thursday to leave rates unchanged, Mr. Trichet said a "small" increase in interest rates is possible in July but "not certain."
Frankfurt's DAX 30 index fell 0.3% to 6941.83, and Paris's CAC 40 slipped 0.2% to 4907.06. In London, the FTSE 100 rose 0.4% to 5995.30
In Stockholm, ABB fell 2.3% while Alstom was down 2% in Paris. In London, BHP Billiton fell 1.2%, and Rio Tinto declined 0.7%.
"Interest-rate futures are indicating a 50% chance of a rate rise in Europe in October. This has slightly unnerved the market. If we see rate rises, then the market will come off, as everyone was expecting rate cuts," said Mark Priest, senior trader at TradIndex.
The telecommunications sector was buzzing with merger-and-acquisition news. Vodafone Group rose 3.8% in London after Verizon Wireless, Vodafone's joint venture with Verizon Communications, agreed to buy Alltel, creating the U.S.'s cellphone-market leader in terms of subscribers.
Shares of TeliaSonera jumped 6.5% in Stockholm after the telecom operator rejected a cash-and-share approach from France Télécom. France Télécom's shares fell 5.1% in Paris.
Several banks gained ground, with U.K. lender Royal Bank of Scotland Group up 3.8% and Swiss banking group UBS up 4.2% as sentiment improved a bit towards the battered sector. Citigroup analysts upgraded RBS to "buy" from "hold." HBOS rose 5.1% in London, while Barclays was up 3.1%.
For devout followers of technical analysis, the latest round of meltdown in Indian equities, which started around May 20, is much more damaging than the crash in January this year. For, if the weakness in January could have been attributed to a bull market correction, the downswing in the last few trading sessions increasingly hints at a fullfledged bear market. A thorough analysis using moving averages — the most important trend indicator — validates this view.
In technical terms, the 20, 50 and the 200 day moving average (DMA) are generally seen as the short-, medium- and the long-term trend indicators . Life above a moving average is viewed as bullish and while that below the moving average shows signs of an impending fall. The current leg of the down move has once again pushed the Nifty below all three of these important indicators.
In fact, at close on Wednesday, all NSE indices except the CNX IT are trading below each of their respective 20, 50 and 200 DMAs. A closer look makes things even scarier for bulls. Of the 50 stocks that make up the Nifty, 33 are trading below their respective 20, 50 and 200 DMAs and hence, can be concluded to be in a bear market. While 15 stocks are stuck in no man’s zone — trading above one or two but definitely below at least one of these important indicators — only two stocks, Infosys and Ranbaxy, are trading above all of their respective 20, 50 and 200 DMAs and so, still continue to be in a bull market.
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If you thought the ratio of 33 to 2 looks frightening, a closer look at the ratio of the weightage that these laggards have in the Nifty to that of the weightage of the 2 leaders is even more spine chilling. With heavyweights like Reliance Industries, ONGC and NTPC, which together make up a quarter of the Nifty, well below each of their respective 20, 50 and 200 DMAs, 71.95% of the Nifty can be labelled as being in a bear market, with only a measly 4.57% still in a bull market. And so, the journey of the Nifty back over its 200 DMA, which at close on Wednesday is at around 5,220, looks a tall order, at least in the near term.
That even the big daddy of benchmark indices — the Dow Jones Industrial Average — and most other major global indices like the FTSE 100, the Hang Seng and the Shanghai are all trading below their respective 200, 50 and 20 DMAs only further highlights the global nature of the ongoing bear hug. Back home, what is worrying bulls even more is the southward journey of Reliance Industries. Often considered as the pulse of Indian equities, RIL along with the Nifty is now trading well below its 50 WMA (weekly moving average).
In fact, if you exclude a solitary week in March, this is the first occasion since the beginning of 2005 that RIL is trading below this major support. Even for the Nifty, the situation is exactly the same as this is the first time since the beginning of 2005, except for March and April, that the Nifty is trading below its 50 WMA. Just how important a support this is, can be gauged from the fact that although during the crash of May 2006, March 2007 and August 2007, the Nifty had gone below its 50 WMA on a few occasions, it had always managed to bounce back above it by the end of the week.
ja det undrer mig også, heldig vis har jeg aldrig købt den
men kunne m¨ske overveje det nu
de laver en emission på 4 p og jeg syntes de skrev 10 til 1, så betyder det 10 nye aktier for hver gsmmel til 4 p
så er der jo tale om en gevaldig dilution, og man kan måske så bedre forstå det
men normalt plejer man da kun f. ex. at udstede 1 aktie for hver 10, når kursen er så lav på nye aktier og om det er en trykfejl er svært at forestille sig
aktierne stiger næsten 2% og olien stiger 5 dollar
så er det næsten sikkert at mine infrastrukturaktier i asien stiger stærkt i nat
det var jo det jeg sagde at aktierne ikke stod foran en nedtur dengang de brød den kile donlupo havde tegnet
det er alt for kortsigtet at tegne kiler
markedet har bare konsolideret efter stigningerne i marts-maj
og fortsætter nu videre op i resten af året og i 2009
så vi skal til at tjene penge, flere penge og vi bliver meget rige siger pippen og ser glad ud
lille pip synes også aktier er ved at blive spændende igen
og hun ser meget grådig ud
gumsen slog en put af bare benovelse, men hun er ked af at hun ikke fik en kvindelig præsident
iøvrigt kan man da godt se på fru clinton at man bruger mange penge på tøj i usa
hun har aldrig det samme på, men er hver gang hun 'optræder' iklædt et nyt farvestrålende fuglefjers kostyme
det må være dyrt med sådan en garderobe, hvor man kun bruger tøjet en enkelt gang
gumsen kom til at sige at tøjet ikke kan skjule at hun har en bred røv
ja i princippet er det rigtigt, men han er alt for forsigtig
at forbruget i kina og indien tilsammen kun er 1/4 af forbruget i usa
er det rene vrøvl
tilsammen er det faktisk større end i usa
om man køber en grillkylling eller en skjorte eller et par bukser i kina eller i usa er det samme selvom de ikke koster det samme
der er simpelthen ikke nogen, der fatter den størrelsesorden kina og til en hvis grad indien har nået
i og med at der er tale om hhv 1.4 mia og 1.1 milliarder mennesker er det klart at forbruget pr indbygger er en del lavere end i usa, men det samlede forbrug er netop allerede større end i usa, bare sammensat på en anden måde
relativt flere fødevarer og tekstiler samt billige forbrugsgoder (af lav kvalitet?!) og så mange flere huse og omtrent lige så mange biler og så ikke så mange finansselskaber og diverse hospitaler, skoler, børnehaver mm
så gurli margrete du er nødt til at forstå, at du ikke kan finde fornuftige argumenter hos alle de akademikere du citerer og samtidig siger du at man skal have været derude
det er for langt ude, jeg ved alt om kina og indien og mener det er spild af tid at tage derud og selv kigge efter for du ved jo slet ikke hvad du skal kigge efter, men jeg har de forskellige data, de er meget vigtigere og så er jeg intelligent, men det er rigtigt at det er jo kvinders svage punkt, bare se fru clinton, der tabte til den intelligente obama, selvom han har en anden farve
men han har en sød kone, bare hun nu også kan tænke, det kan kvinder jo ikke, men hun tjener mere end manden, sådan er det i dag, man kan tjene penge på at se godt ud, og McCain lever jo højt på sin kones formue og forretningstalet ligesom premierministeren i ukraine, hun har også gjort det godt så de er mindre fattige end de var før og de køber masser af biler i ukraine, 700.000 om året, det er ved at nærme sig vestlige standarder
gas - Thanks to the Warner-Lieberman bill's ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets and the lack of low-carbon energy sources in the short term, the U.S. can anticipate a massive switch from coal to natural gas by the power industry. Senate debate on the bill started Monday, and calls for 2005-level carbon emissions starting in 2012.
Switching from coal to natural gas will drive up both the demand and the price of natural gas (the only low-carbon alternative) to unprecedented levels, which will in turn further erode the number of U.S. manufacturing jobs.
Limited natural gas supply capacity will pit power-sector purchases in direct competition with demand from the residential, commercial, farm and manufacturing sectors. There is nothing in the bill that will stop a potential national crisis, one that is already underway in anticipation of these carbon constraints.
Simply setting a cap on carbon emissions does nothing to remove the barriers to greater natural gas supply. The lack of low-carbon energy alternatives for power generation (at least until new nuclear and coal-fired power plants with carbon capture to reduce emissions become more commonplace) means that natural gas is the default low-carbon energy option. In fact, none of the potential low-carbon energy alternatives will be available by 2012 except natural gas, the year the bill first imposes these stringent limits.
Energy efficiency, conservation and renewable energy will be helpful, but those options will not prevent the crisis that will ensue when companies are forced to decrease their emissions.
Because natural-gas-fired power generation is setting the marginal price for electricity in a growing portion of the country, as natural gas prices go up, so will the price of electricity. Homeowners, farmers and manufacturers could pay exorbitant prices, multiples higher than government forecasts.
It will make little difference, though, to most electric utilities if the price of natural gas goes up. Most state public-service commissions readily approve an automatic pass-through for energy costs to the rate payer. That means utility companies won't be adversely affected--but residential, commercial and industrial consumers will.
Most U.S. manufacturers compete on a global basis, and will thus be acutely affected by further increases in natural gas prices. Natural gas prices are about 50% higher than a year ago. These elevated prices have already contributed to the loss of 3.3 million manufacturing jobs; that's 19.2% of all manufacturing jobs since 2000.
The bill actually provides financial incentives for an electric utility to switch from coal to natural gas. If a power generator does make the switch, it could avoid having to purchase carbon allowances, or it could make a profit by selling the carbon reduction to other companies.
These perverse incentives will significantly increase electric power production from existing natural gas power plants that are currently only being used for peaking power.
None of this would be a problem if we had plenty of natural gas production capacity, but U.S. production of the commodity is fragile, despite record well completions. According to Energy Information Administration data, U.S. dry production from 2000 to 2007 is flat, while total demand rose 9.8%. It's surprising but true: Today's domestic natural gas production isn't much different now than it was in the 1970s.
The lack of globally competitive natural gas prices is already causing our country to import larger quantities of our products and displace domestic production. Products like chemicals, plastics, fertilizer, steel, aluminum and paper can be made here--and open up well-paid jobs to workers in those industries--or we can continue to increase our import dependency on other countries. Imports from 2003 to 2007 rose a staggering 78.3%, according to an analysis of 16 U.S. Census Bureau industry product categories.
In the end, the Warner-Lieberman bill could mark the final demise of the energy-intensive manufacturing industries that rely upon globally competitive energy to survive.
That is unfortunate, because these are the same industries that provide the enabling product solutions our country will need to meet the climate challenge in the long term: fiberglass insulation, lightweight materials for vehicles, plastic composites for wind turbines, silica for solar panels, fertilizer to expand crop supply and double-pane windows. Demand for these products will continue to increase; it's only a question of whether they will be produced domestically or imported.
Because the emission-reduction timetable of the bill does not coincide with alternative low-carbon options for the power sector, natural gas and electricity prices will rise substantially above government forecasts and emission-reduction targets may be achieved at the expense of manufacturers who will send their jobs offshore--along with their carbon emissions--to be another country's problem.
jo, men hvorfor skulle det være et problem?
det er derfor at råvarepriserne og investeringerne boomer
og der kan man tjene penge uden at købe kinesiske aktier
du må alliere dig med robert fra langt fra las vega
han skulle teste 250 slags lokumspapir for at finde
en der ikke gav heremoider i numsen
og jeg tror det var een af silkepair fra kina, der vandt
her er et mere af mine 'fattige' lande, der trækker verdensøkonomien og selvom de ikke er fattige er deres dynamik den samme som de andre udviklingslande
fattig behøver ikke at betyde fattig, men bare at man er igang med en stærk vækst og udvikling af et land, der har været fattig
Abu Dhabi to get AED 1 trillion worth investments in 5 years
Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry in its latest report on the emirates said that Abu Dhabi has attracted nearly AED 300 billion in cumulative investments over the past 5 years and the capital is projected to triple to more than AED 1 trillion in the next 5 years.
Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry said that the total value of projects to be carried out in the emirate could exceed AED 1.3 trillion in the next few years and more than half of them would be in the construction sector.
In a 50 page report on Abu Dhabi's economy, Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce & Industry said that the emirate's gross domestic product soared by at least 18% in 2007 and is projected to swell by more than 14% in 2008. The GDP of the UAE also surged by more than 16% in 2007 and the report forecast growth this year at more than 14%.
Between 2001 and 2007, cumulative investments in Abu Dhabi totaled nearly AED 300 billion, including about AED 55 billion in the oil and gas sector, AED 130 billion in construction and real estate, AED 56 billion in manufacturing, AED 30 billion in tourism and about AED 29 billion in water and electricity.
The report said such projects would give a strong boost to the country's economy, which is already galloping at double digit growth rates because of strong oil prices, high public spending and a sharp increase in private investments.
The figures showed both the oil and non oil sectors in Abu Dhabi and the whole UAE were recording high growth rates as the country is stepping up a drive to attract investment and diversify its economy away from volatile oil sales.
et af de fattige lande med høj vækst og det gælder i endnu højere grad naboerne omkring det caspiske hav og ukraine mm i det gamle sovjetunionen
Russian GDP to increase by 7.8% in 2008-IMF
RIA Novosti quoted International Monetary Fund that Russia's GDP will grow by around 7.8% this year boosted by high oil prices and that inflation is likely to exceed the government target.
Mr Paul Tomsen IMF Mission leader said "We expect demand to remain brisk and GDP to grow 7.75% in 2008. He said that high world oil prices, a large inflow of capital and an increase in crediting had provided dynamic growth in investment, productivity, incomes and consumption in Russia.
He added that inflationary pressure on the Russian economy is expected to remain and consumer prices could rise by 14% in 2008. The Russian government's inflation target for 2008 is 10.5%.
Russia's GDP grew 8.1% in 2007 and expanded at an annualized rate of around 8% in the first four months of the year compared to the government's forecast of 7.6%.
machine tool akierne i japan steg ret brat dem sidste time i handelen i tolyo
jeg kan ikke umiddelbart finde en årsag
men det er nok fordi man har fundet ud af at kvaliteten på de kinesiske produkter er for dårlig, så det kan komme de japanske til gode
BHUBANESWAR: India's second largest producer of aluminium National Aluminium Co Ltd (Nalco) on Wednesday announced that it would invest around Rs.400 billion ($9.5 billion) in the next five years in its various expansion projects.
The projects include smelter and power Projects in Indonesia, South Africa and Iran. Besides, Nalco is planning brownfield and greenfield growth projects within the country, the company said here.
Earlier this year, Nalco signed a deal with Indonesia to set up a 500,000-tonne smelter and a 1,250 mw captive power plant in that country. Nalco plans to invest around Rs.140 billion in this greenfield project, it said.
Nalco is also exploring the possibilities of setting up a smelter and power plant in South Africa at an investment of around Rs.160 billion. In Iran, a 310,000-tonne smelter has been planned.
The company added that it has also plans to set up new projects in the country. A mines and refinery complex is being planned in Andhra Pradesh. A draft memorandum of understanding (MoU) is under negotiation with the Andhra Pradesh government for implementing the Rs.70 billion project.
In Orissa, a smelter and power complex has been planned in Jharsuguda district at an investment of Rs.85 billion. Nalco also plans to set up an aluminium park in Angul, as a joint venture with Orissa Industrial Infrastructure Development Corp (IDCO).
Bharat Earth Movers Ltd (BEML) and Nalco have reached an agreement to collaborate for the production of aluminium rail wagons, the company added.
As per the agreement, the products would be jointly developed by these two leading PSUs and Nalco would supply the aluminium extrusions after conversion from its billets and ingots through a third party.
The company added that it would develop a cement unit at Angul power plant. The project will involve an investment of Rs.3 billion.
The company officials have said Nalco now enjoys more managerial powers and commercial autonomy to chart its own course in the world market after it was accorded Navratna status by the central government recently.
nu hvor prisen på steam kul på verdensmarkedet er ved at bevæge sig over 150 dol
er det lidt svært at fatte at mange amerikanske kul selskabe som f.ex. international coal
ikke kan komme ud af de langtidskontrakter, hvor de sælger 95% af deres kul i både 2008 og 2009 for 45 dollar pr ton
og stadig har en stor del contracted for 2010
det kan da ikke væe rigtigt at de ikke bare kan sælge det til spotprisen til andre kunder
BALI: Indian cement maker Ultratech bought a parcel of South African coal ex-stocks at an Indian port for $170 a tonne CIF and is seeking more, the seller, an Indian trader, said.
Ultratech and other Indian cement companies currently in the market for South African coal are being offered at $200.00 a tonne CIF, the Indian trader said.
"If they want the coal, they have no choice. That is the market price," he said.
Other Indian traders also offering South African coal ex-stocks to the cement and sponge iron industries said they expected to get at least $170.00 a tonne CIF, probably more.
Demand has been steady from end-users during the past few months despite an absence of fresh buying of South African cargoes by Indian traders.
MUMBAI: Cement sales have grown 7.9% as an increased focus on infrastructure projects has pushed up demand for the building material in the world’s second-largest cement market after China.
According to the Cement Manufacturers’ Association, industry sales grew to 167.67 million tonne, from 155.26 mt in the previous year. The growth has come from all players including large and small.
Cement sales of Aditya Birla group, the largest cement player in the country, rose 0.8% in May to 2.66 mt while its production grew 2.5% to 2.70 mt in May. The Birlas’ cement production comes from flagship Grasim Industries and UltraTech Cement, with a combined capacity of more than 31 mt.
The other large firm, ACC, which is owned 41% by Swiss cement major Holcim, said its January-March sales rose 7.1% to 5.29 mt. The company which has a strong presence in the large markets of northern and eastern India, said its April production totalled 1.77 mt while sales in the same month was 1.74 mt.
ACC has the capacity to make 22.4 mt of cement a year. According to AL Kapur, managing director of Ambuja Cements, “The industry has added 25 mt of new capacity leading to the increase in sales.
This also indicates that cement demand is increasing on the back of housing and infrastructure growth.” Shree Cements, a mid-sized cement company, said its May sales grew 20.3% at 5.56 lakh tonne.
jo gurli margrete
du er ved at lære det
usa har haft en alvorlig nedtur i nu snart 1½ år
alligevel fortsætter kina med at øge eksporten med 25% om året
det viser at der er andre markeder og at kina tager markedesandele i usa, så de alligevel også kan øge eksporten en smule til usa trods en nedgang
og europa har jo ikke nogen nedgang, der kan sammenlignes med den i usa, bare en periode med lavere vækst
April Construction Advances 9 Percent
..............................................................................................................
Bedford, MA - May 22, 2008 - The value of new construction starts in April climbed 9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $553.5 billion, according to McGraw-Hill Construction, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies. Much of the increase came as the result of a strong performance by nonbuilding construction, which is comprised of public works and electric utilities. Nonresidential building showed moderate improvement in April, while residential building stayed unchanged from its March pace. For the first four months of 2008, total construction on an unadjusted basis came in at $170.4 billion, down 17% from the same period a year ago. Excluding residential building, new construction starts in the first four months of 2008 rose 3%. Table for Monthly Summary of Construction Value.
April's data produced a reading of 117 for the Dodge Index (2000=100), up from a revised 108 for March, and equal to the average for January and February. "While housing is still in the process of reaching bottom, and tighter lending standards are raising concern about the prospects for commercial building, publicly-financed construction is expected to hold up relatively well during 2008," stated Robert A. Murray, vice president of economic affairs for McGraw-Hill Construction. "The strength shown by the public works categories in April, along with the elevated activity for several institutional structure types, supports this belief."
Nonbuilding construction in April jumped 28% to $162.4 billion (annual rate), reflecting gains for both public works (up 24%) and electric utilities (up 41%). Of the public works categories, the largest increase was reported for water supply systems, up 167%. The boost to the water supply category was provided by the start of a massive $1.3 billion water treatment plant in Westchester County, New York, as well as by $115 million for reconstruction of a water treatment plant in Phoenix AZ. The water resources category also witnessed substantial growth, rising 74% with the push coming from $200 million for a reservoir project in West Palm Beach FL and $57 million for harbor dredging in Boston MA. After a very strong March, sewer construction in April edged up an additional 2%, helped by the start of a $278 million water pollution control project in Brooklyn NY. April also saw a 21% rebound for bridge construction, while "miscellaneous" public works rose 20%, lifted by the start of a $378 million light rail project in Denver CO and a $100 million oil pipeline in Minnesota. Running counter to April's broad upward trend for public works was highway construction, which slipped 8%. The boost provided to the April nonbuilding total by electric utilities came mostly from the start of one project - a $2.9 billion coal-fired power plant in Illinois.
Nonresidential building in April grew 5% to $210.6 billion (annual rate), after dropping 25% in March. Healthcare facilities had a particularly strong April, jumping 41%, as five large hospitals reached groundbreaking in these states - New York ($195 million), Tennessee ($188 million), Indiana ($185 million), Maryland ($150 million), and Washington ($142 million). Substantial gains were also registered by two of the smaller institutional structure types. The amusement category soared 82%, aided by the start of a $400 million convention center expansion in Philadelphia PA, plus the start of several large theater and performing arts facilities in California, Florida, and Washington DC. Transportation terminal work climbed 52%, led by a $126 million terminal renovation at Miami International Airport and a $90 million terminal expansion at Washington Dulles International Airport. Church construction also helped out, climbing 10% in April. On the negative side, the public buildings category (detention facilities and courthouses) fell 25% after an exceptional March. And, educational buildings (the largest nonresidential category by dollar volume) settled back 10% in April after heightened contracting in March.
The commercial structure types generally showed modest weakening in April. Office construction eased back 1%, although April did include the start of four sizeable projects, located in Washington DC ($210 million and $101 million), Atlanta GA ($175 million), and New York NY ($100 million). Hotel construction in April dropped 5%, sliding for the second month in a row after the robust volume reported at the outset of 2008. Store construction in April fell 8%, and Murray noted that "the store category in particular is vulnerable this year, as retailers pull back on expansion in the face of tighter credit conditions and weaker consumer spending." Warehouse construction in April edged up 1%, yet its pace so far in 2008 lags behind last year. Manufacturing plant construction in April climbed 63% after a very weak March, as two large ethanol plants reached groundbreaking, located in North Carolina ($100 million) and Indiana ($80 million).
Residential building, at $180.5 billion (annual rate) in April, was essentially unchanged from March. Single family housing continued to lose momentum, slipping 1%. Although the decline was relatively small, it did extend the downward trend that has been underway for over two years now. By major region, single family housing in April showed further reductions in the South Atlantic, down 6%; the West, down 2%; and the South Central, down 1%; while modest improvement was reported in the Northeast, up 3%; and the Midwest, up 4%. Multifamily housing in April increased 3%, helped by the start of four large projects located in Chicago IL ($132 million), Washington DC ($107 million), Port Washington NY ($101 million), and Atlanta GA ($100 million). Murray stated, "There is still the occasional month that includes large multifamily projects, like April, but the number of such projects reaching groundbreaking has become considerably less than a year ago, given the unraveling of the condo boom."
The 17% decline for total construction in the first four months of 2008 relative to last year was due to this pattern by sector - residential building, down 39%; nonresidential building, up 1%; and nonbuilding construction, up 5%. By geography, four of the five major regions experienced diminished contracting in the January-April period - a 25% reduction in the South Atlantic and 19% declines in the West, Midwest, and South Central. The Northeast was the only major region able to register a year-to-date gain for total construction, climbing 12%.
Hyundai Motor Begins Work on US$400MLN Russian Factory
ST. PETERSBURG, Russia, June 5 Asia Pulse - The Hyundai Motor Co., (KSE:011760) South Korea's largest automaker, began building a US$400 million factory in Russia on Thursday, in a bid to win sales in the country's fast-growing automobile market.
Hyundai plans to complete the factory, which will eventually have a production capacity of 100,000 vehicles a year, by 2010 in the Kamenka industrial zone in St. Petersburg, home of Russia's political and economic elite.
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"The Russia plant will be poised to serve as a strategic center for Hyundai Motor's sales in Eastern Europe," Hyundai Motor Vice Chairman Seo Byung-ki told reporters at a groundbreaking ceremony.
"With high-quality products, Hyundai Motor aims to become the No. 1 brand in Russia," Seo said.
The plant, which will be Hyundai's sixth overseas plant, would hire 1,700 people, the South Korean company said.
Hyundai, the world's sixth-largest carmaker, with its affiliate Kia Motors Corp., is aggressively pushing to build overseas plants to shield itself from currency fluctuations and to avoid labor strikes at home.
By 2010, Hyundai plans to cut the ratio of domestic output to 50 per cent from the current 70 per cent.
This year, Hyundai said it was on course to overtake General Motors Corp. of the U.S. as the largest overseas brand in Russia.
Last year, GM, the struggling U.S. auto giant, took the top spot in Russia, while Hyundai came in second.
In the first four months of this year, Hyundai and GM were in a neck-and-neck competition for the No. 1 spot in Russia, according to the South Korean company.
Hyundai targets sales of 216,700 passenger vehicles, trucks and buses in Russia this year, up 35.3 per cent from last year, according to the statement.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oilfield services company stocks look like the "sweetest investing spot" in the energy industry, even with a likely pullback in crude oil prices, fund manager John Olson said on Wednesday.
"With this run-up in crude prices and natural gas prices ... the revenue base in this industry has grown exponentially just in the last four or five months," Olson, who manages $150 million at Houston Energy Partners, told the Reuters Global Energy Summit in Houston.
Crude oil prices have shed more than $12 from their record high above $135 a barrel earlier this month, and natural gas reached new long-time highs above $12 per million British thermal units this week.
And even with a continued drop in those prices, this year's rally will send revenue for oil and gas producers skyrocketing to about $478 billion this year, Olson predicted, nearly $200 billion more than last year.
The U.S. industry typically spends about 35 to 40 percent of its revenue on incremental drilling -- money that flows largely to the oilfield service companies that help pull the oil and gas out of the ground.
"That is probably the sweetest investing spot in the entire energy industry right now," he said.
Among his favorites are Key Energy Services Inc (KEG.N: Quote, Profile, Research), which is expanding its business in Mexico; and Unit Corp (UNT.N: Quote, Profile, Research), an onshore driller and exploration and production company. Both stocks are trading at attractive valuations and have room to grow, Olson said.
For example, Unit is trading at about 11 times 2008 earnings when it should be trading at 14 times 2008 earnings, he said.
Houston Energy Partners is also looking for a slight rebound in refining margins in the second half of the year and has been adding shares of Marathon Oil Corp (MRO.N: Quote, Profile, Research) to its portfolio. Continued...
gas er nu i 12.40, så de canadiske d.... må snart stige, hvis de ikke driller igen
The first storm of the Atlantic hurricane season emboldened natural gas bulls on Monday and pushed the commodity to its highest level since December 2005.
The front-month natural gas contract is up 0.444, or 3.6%, to $12.146 per million British thermal units at 10:52 a.m. EDT. The all-time high in natural gas is $15.780.
Citigroup natural gas analyst Tim Evans said the rally is a "habitual, seasonal and emotional reaction" to the start of the Atlantic storm season. Tropical storm Arthur was the first named storm of the season. It was downgraded to a tropical depression on Monday.
Evans said technical factors were also playing a part in the rally. Natural gas sold off last Thursday and fell to a low of 11.430 but opened higher on Friday.
"Some of this rally is being technically driven. The market seems to have held where it had to hold," Evans said.
Natural gas is up 62% year-to-date and Evans said that the market's psychology is very bullish, despite limited changes in market fundamentals. He said the Atlantic hurricane season is now fully priced in and the market is well supplied.
Evans said little has changed since mid-March despite a more than $3 rally.
"Is there a fundamental cause for this? Not really," he said. "What you come away with is basically the idea that it's a casino."
............
CALGARY, Alberta (Reuters) - Canadian natural gas production should rebound to previous volumes after the current slump as producers, prompted by high prices, pump money into deep and unconventional prospects, the head of the industry's main lobby group said on Tuesday.
The question is: how long will that take?
"There is no question that it's going to be unconventional, it's going to be further away and more expensive gas," CAPP President Pierre Alvarez told the Reuters Global Energy Summit.
"But if you look at the potential, especially on the unconventional side, we have barely, barely scratched the surface."
Last week, the National Energy Board said gas output in Canada -- the key supplier to the U.S. market -- is expected to be down by as much as 1 billion cubic feet a day this year versus 2007. It blamed the drop on a slowdown in drilling due to weak prices and uncertainty stemming from Alberta's royalty review.
Alvarez said drilling has already increased amid resurgent gas prices and industry buzz over such unconventional prospects as tight gas and shale gas in northeastern British Columbia.
Alberta spot natural gas jumped to C$10.08 a gigajoule on Tuesday for the first time since December 2005. It fetched C$6.53 12 months ago.
Gas futures climbed 2 percent on Tuesday to $12.221 per million British thermal units, up 55 percent from a year ago. Continued...
Despite surging prices, producers have yet to announce major increases to gas spending budgets. Alvarez attributed that to questions that remain over the impact of Alberta's new royalty regime on conventional mid-depth wells.
Earlier this year, the province announced royalty breaks for deep drilling, prompting some analysts to predict that firms with such prospects will put those wells back on the front-burner.
Canada's drilling industry last month increased its forecast for wells completed in 2008 by nearly a third to more than 18,000, citing renewed optimism over gas and oil prices.
It is not known how long it will take to boost production from early-stage shale and tight gas prospects, such as Horn River and Montney plants in British Columbia that have captured industry attention, Alvarez said.
"They are very remote, they're short of infrastructure, and so it's going to take awhile to get that back up. That being said, I think the royalty rules do have some attractive features with regards, especially, to shallow and unconventional gas in parts of Alberta," he said.
"So we are going to be down this year, but I think when you look beyond that, especially if prices stay north of $10, you will see a continued expansion of the focus on the gas story."
China, India set for slower growth as inflation looms: OECD
China and India are set for slower but robust economic growth this year although sharply higher inflation looms as a key threat amid soaring global food and oil prices, the OECD said Wednesday.
China will grow 10 percent against 11.9 percent in 2007 as exports slip amid a world slowdown and anaemic US expansion, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecast in its biannual Economic Outlook.
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India's expansion will fall to 7.8 percent in 2008 from 8.7 percent the previous year, partly due to higher interest rates, said the report from the grouping of 30 industrialised nations, which does not include the two Asian giants.
den er nok faldet fordi de kinesiske batterier har en dårligere kvalitet end de japanske
og kun har en levetid på 3 timer inden de skal skrottes
Brazil April Industrial Output Rises to 6-Month High (Update1)
By Andre Soliani and Joshua Goodman
June 3 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's industrial output in April expanded at the fastest pace in six months, giving the central bank room to raise interest rates more than expected when policy makers meet tomorrow.
Industrial production jumped 10.1 percent in April, up from a revised 1.5 percent increase in March, the government said today. The expansion was faster than the median forecast of 9.6 percent in a Bloomberg survey of 28 economists.
The strong output number may prompt the central bank to raise rates by three quarters of a percentage point, said Win Thin, a senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York. At the bank's last meeting in April, policy makers raised interest rates for the first time in almost three years after inflation quickened to the fastest pace since 2006.
``The bank needs to tap the brakes a little more,'' said Thin, adding that the pace of industrial output was more evidence Latin America's No. 1 economy continues to grow at a robust pace.
Policy makers tomorrow are expected to raise the overnight rate by a half-point to 12.25 percent, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 37 economists. Ten economists forecast a three-quarter point increase to 12.50 percent.
The central bank will announce its rate decision tomorrow after 5 p.m. New York time.
Rebound
Bankers increased the so-called Selic target rate on April 16 by a greater-than-expected half-point as accelerating economic growth has pushed inflation over the mid-point of the bank's annual inflation target of 4.5 percent.
Consumer prices rose 5.25 percent in the 12 months through mid-May from 3 percent in the same year-ago period. Inflation has remained above bank's target since January.
Brazil's economy grew 6.2 percent in the last quarter of 2007, more than twice the pace of the last decade.
``Economic activity is re-accelerating in the second quarter of 2008, after slowing in the first quarter,'' Flavia Cattan-Naslausky, an interest rate and currency strategist at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Greenwich, said in an e-mail interview. ``This will complicate the central bank's life.''
Brazil's real gained 0.6 percent to 1.6219 per dollar at 10:43 a.m. New York time, compared with 1.6315 yesterday.
To contact the reporter on this story: Andre Soliani in Brasilia at asoliani@bloomberg.net; Joshua Goodman in Rio de Janeiro at jgoodman19@bloomberg.net.
endnu engang for langsom, japanske batteriaktier stiger ca 2-300% på få dage
fordi mann spekulerer i batterier til biler
men jeg går da ud fra at sailor er med på vognen
hanne synes sikkert at det er for dårlig kvalitet de leverer
Shares of Japanese car battery makers shot up this week as investors expected growing concerns over global warming and persistently high oil prices to boost demand for electric cars.
Japan's largest car battery maker GS Yuasa Corp (6674.T: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 6.9 percent on Wednesday, adding to a 16 percent gain in the previous two sessions. Furukawa Battery (6937.T: Quote, Profile, Research) soared more than 40 percent this week.
The rally started on Monday on news that Japan's postal services system is looking to switch its entire fleet of about 21,000 short-distance delivery vehicles to zero-emission electric cars starting this business year. [ID:nT252637]
GS Yuasa has set up a joint venture with Mitsubishi Corp (8058.T: Quote, Profile, Research) and Mitsubishi Motors Corp (7211.T: Quote, Profile, Research) to produce lithium-ion batteries, a type of batteries used for electric cars. The joint venture plans to start selling them in the year starting April 2009.
"We plan to sell (the batteries) to other carmakers, and automakers both in Japan and overseas have shown interest in them," said Masanori Kitamura, GS Yuasa spokesman.
Market participants said battery makers have joined the growing list of environment-related stocks, an increasingly popular category that includes makers of non-fossile burning power plants such as nuclear reactors. "Battery (shares) are quite strong, basically because hybrids and electric cars are going to be big from now," said Koichi Ogawa, chief portfolio manager at Daiwa SB Investments.
"Oil prices may fall, but they'll still stay at a pretty high level, and people are feeling the need to reduce carbon."
Oil has retreated from record highs, but stayed far above $100 a barrel.
But some battery makers were puzzled by the steep rise in their share price, saying there were no fundamental factors to back up the move. Continued...
Officials of FDK Corp (6955.T: Quote, Profile, Research) said they were surprised to see their firm's share price double in just three days.
"We are not working on lithium-ion batteries for electric cars. We don't have any car battery business," said Shigeaki Niida, spokesman of FDA, a maker of dry cell batteries.
"We were happy on the first day (of the rise) since our shares had been moving in a low range. But we are confounded to see it keeps rising on day two and three." (Reporting by Taiga Uranaka; additional reporting by Elaine Lies; editing by Sophie Hardach)
bombardier stiger stadig, en aktie jeg har og doblede op i for et par måneder siden, nu oppe med 35% siden dengang
Bombardier Announces Strong Financial Results for the First Quarter Ended April 30, 2008
Wednesday June 4, 6:00 am ET
Pierre Beaudoin Becomes President and CEO
Consolidated revenues of $4.8 billion, compared to $4 billion last fiscal year
EBITDA of $461 million, compared to $314 million last fiscal year
EBIT of $321 million, compared to $183 million last fiscal year
Net income of $226 million, or $0.12 earnings per share, compared to $79 million, or $0.04 earnings per share last fiscal year
Free cash flow of $560 million, compared to a usage of $154 million last fiscal year
Strong cash position at $4.3 billion
Backlog of $55.5 billion
Reinstatement of a quarterly dividend of $0.025 Cdn per common share
MONTREAL, QUEBEC--(MARKET WIRE)--Jun 4, 2008 -- (All amounts in this press release are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated.)
Bombardier (Toronto:BBD-A.TO - News)(Toronto:BBD-B.TO - News) today released strong financial results for the first quarter ended April 30, 2008. Revenues increased by 21% to reach $4.8 billion. Earnings before financing income, financing expense and income taxes (EBIT) totalled $321 million, compared to $183 million last fiscal year ($252 million last fiscal year before an excess-over-average production cost (EOAPC) charge of $69 million). EBIT margin at 6.7% compares to last year's 4.6%, or 6.4% before EOAPC.
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Net income reached $226 million, an improvement of $147 million compared to the same period last year. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased to $0.12, compared to $0.04 last fiscal year. The overall backlog climbed to $55.5 billion, compared to $53.6 billion as at January 31, 2008.
Free cash flow (cash flows from operating activities less net additions to property, plant and equipment) improved by $714 million to reach $560 million. The cash position stands strong at $4.3 billion as at April 30, 2008 compared to $3.6 billion on January 31, 2008.
"Our first quarter results have shown marked improvement in all areas. The delivery on our large order intake of the past few years is fuelling the increase in revenues, and this, together with our rigorous discipline in reducing costs, has translated into a strong $0.12 earnings per share compared to $0.04 last year. Combined with our continued focus on cash generation, we have a solid foundation upon which to build for the coming year. Therefore, we are pleased to announce the reinstatement of a $0.025 quarterly dividend per common share," said Laurent Beaudoin, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, Bombardier Inc.
"At Bombardier Aerospace, both business and commercial aircraft enjoyed good demand as demonstrated by the level of net orders and deliveries. Bombardier Transportation received a steady flow of new orders for a book-to-bill ratio of 1, which is strong in a context of a 41% increase in revenues. With an overall backlog of $55.5 billion, both groups are well positioned to deliver continued profitable growth," added Mr. Beaudoin.
As previously announced on November 28, 2007, Pierre Beaudoin assumes today the position of President and Chief Executive Officer of Bombardier Inc. Laurent Beaudoin remains as Chairman of the Board.
Bombardier Aerospace
At Bombardier Aerospace, revenues increased by 5% totalling $2.4 billion, while EBIT improved by $94 million to reach $206 million. This translates into an EBIT margin of 8.7% for the first quarter ended April 30, 2008. Free cash flow improved by $224 million totalling $290 million. Bombardier Aerospace posted a 6% increase in its backlog, which reached another record level at $24.1 billion.
In the business aircraft market, the latest General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) report confirms that Bombardier Aerospace continues to be the industry leader in terms of revenues. The group recorded 58 deliveries and 60 net orders for the quarter. Subsequent to the first quarter, Bombardier Aerospace received a significant order from VistaJet of Switzerland for 35 business jets with options for 25 additional aircraft, bringing the total value, including options, to approximately $1.2 billion. The order intake of the past months is another illustration of the strength of our state-of-the art business jet product offering.
The book-to-bill ratio for commercial aircraft orders came in strong at 2.1 for the quarter, including an order from Scandinavian Airlines Systems (SAS) and its affiliates for 27 regional jets and turboprops. Deliveries remained stable across all our product offering. As a further reflection of the unabated popularity of our regional jet family of aircraft, the CRJ Series attained a major milestone with the delivery of the 1500th aircraft during the quarter.
Bombardier Transportation
Bombardier Transportation revenues rose to $2.4 billion, an increase of $702 million over the same period last fiscal year. EBIT reached $115 million, compared to $71 million for last fiscal year for an EBIT margin of 4.8% versus 4.2%. Meanwhile, free cash flow generation improved by $426 million to reach $258 million. The order backlog stood at $31.4 billion as at April 30, 2008.
Bombardier Transportation reported new orders worth $2.4 billion, leading to a book-to-bill ratio of 1. Orders came from various regions of the world including Europe, North America as well as India. The Brussels transport company (STIB) ordered FLEXITY Outlook trams valued at $285 million, while the New Jersey Transit Corporation (NJ Transit) awarded a contract for 27 locomotives worth $229 million. The Delhi Metro Rail Corporation ordered 84 additional MOVIA metro cars, for a value of $137 million, bringing its total order to 424 metro cars.
To continue its development in the very high speed train segment, Bombardier Transportation signed an agreement with AnsaldoBreda, a subsidiary of Finmeccanica. Subsequent to the quarter, Bombardier signed an agreement with Transmashholding, the leading Russian train manufacturer, to establish a third joint venture, which will develop a new family and a new generation of locomotives. These locomotives will be primarily destined for the Russian and other Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) markets. The agreement secures Bombardier Transportation's position in this strategic market and highlights its intention to expand long-term partnerships within the Russian industry.
Lehman on the block?
Lehman Brothers (LEH) may not be independent for long. The Wall Street Journal reports the investment bank may be forced by its balance sheet woes and the recent plunge of its stock to sell part of even all of itself to another financial firm. Lehman shares sold off Tuesday after the Journal reported Lehman was considering a $4 billion sale of stock. But the newspaper says the selloff in Lehman shares, which knocked 10% off the company’s market value Tuesday, might make a plain stock sale more difficult for shareholders to stomach. And the company may need the cash to forestall another ratings downgrade that could force it to post more collateral on derivatives positions.
Lehman shares were down as much as 15% in trading Tuesday afternoon before the firm publicly denied it had been forced to borrow from the Federal Reserve. The Journal reports Lehman engineered part of its Tuesday afternoon relief rally by buying back its own shares - an unusual move given the worries about the firm’s financial health and the company’s recent efforts to bring down its leverage ratios. Though the buyback could be taken as a sign of management’s confidence that Lehman can weather the storm, others see it as smacking of desperation. Wednesday’s action may go a ways toward determining whether Lehman is able to stay the course or whether it ends up doing a deal with the likes of Citadel or Blackstone (BX).