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"The bad news is that we are not yet cash flow pos. Estimates are that we will be by May, if we can last that long."
Lou, if there are questions about our cash position, and whether or not we can make it untill May, why didn't BD take the deal on the table???
That's a great summary of current activities...
Likwit, what's your reason for thinking this will go to a dollar?
"We had a containment policy in the Middle East. It was called Iraq."
Yeah, what a blunder! What was Bush smoking! Now we can't get out without surrending Iraq to Iran. So we stay and bleed. Tough situation.
Yes, Israel is the wild card, and with their national survival at stake, they may well act premptively. Given their history, they are certain to take seriously Iranian talk about their being a "one bomb country." I follow the mideast situation closely. I don't think the west has the will to stop the Iranians from getting the bomb. Certainly not the U.N. or the Europeans. We are tired and exhausted from the Iraq disaster. Israel may have to take care of business on their own, but can they? Well, yes, if they are willing to stand up to the international condemnation that would follow their taking the necessary course of action. This whole thing is a just a mess. The Iranians, 70-million people, are hiers to the Persian empire. They have taken once again to take their place on the historical stage. This is not going to end well.
"Most interesting to me in the Iran situation was that the prevailing consensus, not taking precipitious military action, was to embargo their exports.
That would be a REAL shock to the oil markets.."
Yes, the miltary option is a terrible one, and the economic embargo option is a terrible one. No good options any where you look.
Oil closed at $66.46. Does anyone really think the problems in the middleast will get better anytime soon? Like while we are trying to stop Iran from getting a bomb or after we fail and Iran has a bomb? Seems the most that we can hope for --- once we extract outselves from the current foriegn policy debacle in Iraq --- is to head up a rational containment policy via the Gulf Cooperative States and try and reign Iran in. Similiar to the cold war, this type of containment policy could last for the next half century. That's how peace is going to look, one long continueing cold war with the super powers jockeying for position in competition for the world's most basic energy comidity. The "security" premium now being paid for oil is not a temporary thing. Combine that with increasing demand and decreasing supply, the fact that oil is a finite resource, and we have only begun to glimpse the future. All BD needs to do is run an honest operation and pump oil!!!
"As far as the oil production, I'm pretty sure it stated it clearly that it was the combined wells pumping 100 bbls/day."
I certainly read the PR to mean 100 barresl combined production. Didn't seem to be overstated.
Oil closed at $64 / barrel. Does anyone think we will not test last year's high again this summer? The middleast is a powder keg and whatever the resolution to the current standoff between Iran and Britan, there will always be another crises unfolding. Not an optimistic view, but a realistic one.
The stars are aligning for us, ever higher oil prices, a recognition of the fact by wallstreet --- they are not buying the oil industry line about $30 / barrel in the near future ---, geopolitics that are largely all about oil that will continue to support the price of oil, and little BD about to become a profitable oil producer in what will soon prove to be the best ever historic market for the world's basic energy commodity. This could be the real thing. Hold tight. It will be a lot more fun going up than down.
Keep the bashers off the board!!!
Kool-Aid Klub Membership:
Cameraturret (Chief Pumper)
Spunkyknight (Vulgar I)
Marsnvest (The Enabler)
Yankee07 (Vulgar II)
Derekz (Founding Pumper)
Dragonman (English Lit Major)
Reverend Jim Jones (Honorary Member)
Badrguy, I feel left out. What do I have to do to get in the Klub? How about some insults, how you must not have a life, nothing better to do than hang around here and vent over your losses. How you can't seem to move on. Hell, once I sell BD, win or lose, you can bet I'll be on to something new. In case you never noticed, life is just to short to stay pissed off about anything. On that point, you are either a paid basher or a very stupid person. If you are for real, you need a therapist, a mental health counselor. You are going to wind up a lonely old man, no friends no life.
"Drive a mile or so down the road and look for the massive location."
"... a massive location." That sounds good Localoil!!!
"positive cash flow very soon". puhleazze! what a baseless pump job. you have NO IDEA what are BDGR's expenses.
Badrguy, wake up! BD ain't spending millions of dollars on capital investment because they have a business model that yields a negative net. You don't know good news when you see it. BD is finally really doing what they need to do, become a small, growing, profitable oil company. Trust me, with the price of oil where it is and only going higher, the market will take care of everthing else. Oh, sorry, I forget, you already sold your shares. In that case, I guess good news hurts even worse than bad news or no news.
"Mar 19, 2007 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX) -- Investment bankers expect brisk deal activity in the energy sector in 2007, as high oil prices stir stiff competition for production reserves and as capital from private equity and hedge funds freely flows into the group."
What's going on here? The board is finally getting intelligent about the price of oil, the interest of investors, and the need for consolidation among small producers. (Hear that localoil --- the need for consolidation among small producers to drive efficiency and the bottom line.) Good to see these posts.
"CT (or any of the genuine posters on this board), what was your take on the PR today?"
On the assumption that I count as a genuine poster, this is great news. There are serveral things to look at. One, BD is clearly investing capital dollars to increase production. Just basic business, you spend money to make money. So, there is no PR hype in the fact that they have the confidence to invest their funds to drive production and the bottom line. Second, I thought the PR was balanced, most of the wells came through, a couple missed and they will re targeted. Has the feel of the truth about it. Yes, the initial flow will slow down, but that is to be expected. You get the sense that the focus on production is now king. I just wish we had more info.
The oil market is up going into Monday, trading at $62.50. Got to say --- it makes me feel better --- that I really did nail where oil is going. I don't think we will ever see cheap oil again or the CERA projection of 30 / barrel, inflation adjusted, for the next 10-years. No, we are much more likely to see $70. Let's hope that BD can actually perform on all the leases they have and not lose any. They will in time be worth more and more. Now, if we just had a maneagement team with BD's best interest at heart.
I rather believe some type of sale / merger is in BD's future. If you begin with the assumption that there is value here, and that BD for a variety of reasons can't deliver on that value, then it makes sense that they would look for someone that could.
A lincensed CPA with SEC experience, well, that is the kind of credibility this company needs. We will all be looking forward to an official PR by the company.
Lou, do we know if the new CPA --- and former SEC employee --- is an officer of the corporation? Will BD be making a public announcement soon?
Yes, the sentiment on this board is getting nasty. If March winds down to a close this week with no audit, no deal, and by all apperances Lanza back running things, don't expect it to get any better.
Localoil, here's to your analyis:
1 . Very formidable mechanical challenges?
What is your point, Local, that BD has taken on greater mechanical challenges than other producers in the area? Is the whole industry just overcome with mechanical challenges? Not likely.
2. Creditors/vendors long overdue on being paid?
How do you know? Does BD owe you money? My guess is that everyone is slow paying in the oil business. Just like the construction business that I'm in. Besides, if BD was that bad, everyone would just be on a cash basis with them. So, if they owe everyone money, it is because they maybe pay late, not because they don't pay.
3. Spills with uncertain costs associated to clean up?
Litigation?
We've been over this. BD is not responsible. Are you an attorney too?
4. Absurdly low net revenue leases?
Unless you are privy to the leases, how do you know? I've negotiated no end of leases in my life, and they are all different, with changing percentages at various threshold etc. Unless you have the leases in hand, what do you really know?
5. Litigation
What litigation? What do you really know about it? Let me tell you, most companies face litigation. Unless you are privy to the merits of the case, what can you really say on this front? Again, are you an attorney that has read the pleadings, depositions, etc? What the hell do you know?
6. Assume 2000 BBL/mo of production = 66.66 BOPD X $20K/BOPD = $1,333,333 dollars at 75% average Net Revenue Interest. Reduce that by 1/3 to account for 50% NRI and you get $879K. Now divide that by shares outstanding.
Why don't you assume 9,000 / month. That will help your calculations some.
There, I've adressed your analysis. I'm not impressed. Now to the point about needing more real info, I certainly agree with that.
"I have set forth, as clearly as I can, the caveats I have. I get about $0.013 per share by my calculations. Can anybody, hopefully, refute that with any sort of cogent analysis?"
"I get about $0.013 per share by my calculations." Localoil, you are so full of it! What calculations? What analysis? You tell us you have no inside information, but yet you arrive at such an exact number!!! You are a paid basher and a not very good one. You have so overplayed your technical expert stuff. Why don't you go stompe around out in the field and drill some oil. Leave the business analysis to the at least half educated.
"Have they applied any EOR technology?
Have they even talked to any vendors?
Have they even talked to any collaborators in their area?
For sure it isn't showing up on the bottom line."
Localoil, I think we agree on something, that it is possible to enhance stipper well production though modern technology. Of course, you have to really want to do it, to have the best interest of BD at heart. So, get rid of the current BD management and there is hope. If we don't do that, well, we are cooked!!!
"Are you trying to keep the stock down.I know you don't own any but you seem to have inside information that is always negative."
No, why would I want to do that? I've made it clear for several months now that I have a significant number of shares in this company, and well above the current price. I don't have any information except what I pick up from around here. I'm trying my very best to help this company! What's your point Yankee, that Lanza is good for the company?
"Consensus in the field is that although a buyout is rumored to be in the works that its going to take a BK sale to clean up/clear out all of the self dealing overrides and whatnot."
localoil, I may not know the oil business, but I been around, and I can assure you that people out in the field don't stand around talking about buy-outs, bankrupcy, and lease override percentages. Ha Ha Ha, you are so full of it... Sorry, I don't mean to insult you, since you just post here for my benefit. Like I said, ha, ha, ha, you are so full of it.
Whatever, I thought you were going to post the names of those New York investors that want to buy my shares??? I'm still waiting.
"The company’s strategy is to generate stable cash flow and production by acquiring mature oil and gas well fields, while generating growth through high-impact enhancement of production rates."
Localoil itis my understadning --- and I'm not an oil person --- that it is possible to increase production from old stripper wells.
There you go Yankee, calling me names. Why don't you post the name of the New York investor that wants to buy all my shares. Put up or shut up!!!
"I am buying a penny a share with the hope oil goes to a hundred any sellers."
With Lanza out and oil at 100 / barrel, we would all make lots of money, but wit Lanza in, it ain't going to make any difference. What part of that don't you get?
The oil market has been beter than every industry / professional source said it would be a year ago, six months ago, and still we go down. Lanza is the problem.
"Just sell your shares the group from New York will buy all you got."
Well, I figured you would never back up you claim about the group from New York? Some secret reason why you can't post it?
"Just sell your shares the group from New York will buy all you got."
Here's betting Yankee that you will not list on the board who the group from New York is, how many shares they own, or anything else that could be verified.
I don't believe for a minute that Lanza can get it over on the New York guys. Now, it he were to leave, I could see some possibilities.
"Localoil, how does Lanza management add value to the individual pieces? Wouldn't it be better to just buy the wells, and pass on Management? It's not like BDGR has some magic formula for coaxing oil outta the ground..."
I don't think there is anyone on this board that would argue that BD management adds value. It clearly detracts from value. The reason we are up from .11 cents is on the rumored buy-out which now does not appear to be happening. With Lanza back in the saddle we are cooked.
"I still think the break up value of the company is .22. So the buyout price would have to be far greater than that."
With Lanza out, the company has value and promiss. With Lanza around around we are going down, not up!
Pay attention to the volumn tomorrow. If it looks something like today, well, that would at least mean the rumored buy-out still has play, still people around that believe it might happen. If we get a big sell off on high volumn, well, that means this thing is dead and over with. If the insiders start selling, we are cooked.
"Could be the calm before the big surge in covers and buy ins, or the last pause before the death spiral."
With Barry no where in sight and Lanza back issueing press releases, well, there may be a deal in the works, but I got to confess it is looking less like it. We got a nice pop at the close today. Might not get any better than this.
"Oil prices spiked above $62 a barrel Friday and gasoline futures continued to surge as unrest in the Middle East and Nigeria helped vault front-month crude prices to their highest level since December."
Well, I was certainly right about where oil prices are going. If only I had found the right little company to invest in!!!
"Because I exposed BDGR as a corrupt organization run by liars, fraudsters and convicted felons, who are in violation of RICO and Sarbanes-Oxley.
Because I exposed BDGR as a corrupt organization run by liars, fraudsters and convicted felons, who are in violation of RICO and Sarbanes-Oxley."
One thing for sure, as long as Lanza continues to run BD, this endless trashing will never end. Because of his conviction, Lanza is not even suposed to be involved with public companies. You can bet as Lanza drives shareholder value to 0, this will only continue.
"I don't think anybody would buy BD without an audit. Definitely, IMO, noone in their area. A Sheriff's Sale might clean it up but not too sure about the extent it would wipe out the ORRI's that are biting into net revenue."
If BD is seriously looking for a buy-out, my guess is that an '06 audit may in fact be done. Because you are right, just can't sell the company without one.
"Barry is not gone yet..."
Lou, here's hoping Lanza doesn't drive Barry off. Absent new ownership there is no hope here. Not much time left. Seems to me the case for securities fraud against Lanza is just overwhelming. I know, the law is a tricky thing, but its not that tricky. This whole thing is just over the top. And Lanza has a prior conviction. Terrible thing to go to jail when you are his age!!!
Yes, that's true, you can't use a prior conviction as evidence, but it can sure be used to determine the length of the prison sentance!!!
"If one is an investor, that would be the best scenario. But very few cases are ever won on securities fraud."
Yes, but Lanza has a prior securities conviction, and I don't think this would be to hard a case to prove...
"Either there is a buyout or there is not. Life at BDGR cannot continue with the current regime and production numbers."
Well said. My hope is that even Lanza can see the truth of this.