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I'm not necessarily worried about it, just posting a topic to discuss. Fact is, there's a lot of paper out there, which magnifies the need to do things right the first time, as raising $$ in the markets could be very dilutive if they don't.
I agree they need to focus on the business at hand, but I'll tell you it's strange that they aren't commmunicating with the market at all, and not attempting to help us get the stock level. Geesh, it's at $.085 today, can't go too much lower...
They've adjusted the # of O/S higher I see, to over 500M... wow, just realized that on the front page of this board.
I'm in agreement that Nasdaq talk is sort of pie-in-the-sky right now. The bigger pressing question is whether they get their financials done, they promised those a lot quicker than they've been delivered. Also, they need to complete the merger, as we all know.
As for the price of the stock, I hate to say that I agree with parts of what the other poster mentioned. A $1.00/sh stock IMO isn't in the cards very soon. That would give us a $500M Market Cap with the current share structure. Though I disagree with the comparison to Cali Pizza Kitchen - it's a different model in a lot of ways. They have full-service stores that are probably millions to build, and are few and far between. UPZS is easy duplicated and can be rolled-out many times quicker in my view.
That said it's still not worth $500M in my binoculars anytime soon, but if it gets there it gets there, a lot of us will have made quite a good chunk of money. They were massively mis-guided on the share program by FC in my opinion, and it's also my thought that FC is the one who pumped the price up last year. I also thankfully unleashed some shares on the way up, anyone who's actively invests would've. They may start buying shares back, and they'll have too, as well as they'll likely have to R/S at some point, there's a lot of paper, but it's correctable. My thought is that they wanted to keep control of the company, which is likely the reason the share structure is as such... They know they need to fix it, but why do it today, if we don't build stores and get cash-flow positive the share structure isn't a hot topic!
Good luck. the everyday decline is also starting to irritate me, buyers seem to be drying up... We used to be consistently at $.15/share, now we're at $.10, a slow chug down... Goodness I hope it doesn't go all the way back to 4 or 5 cents... My assumption is they'll begin communicating quite a bit more soon - they better after the barrage of info last year.
That'd be nice if someone would be kind enough to do that. I'm guessing it'll be interesting and that some tough questions will be asked. I'm curious if FC is involved or not. I wish someone would just post the darned # so we had a reference if we're ever available for these famous calls!
Any feedback is anxiously awaited... Good day...
If someone is able to take notes and post them on the board, that would be most helpful. I can't make the call (nor have the info anywhere on how to get on), and would definitely like to hear what was being said, if FC hosted the call, the demeanor, etc...
should be most interesting. Hopefully the stock rebounds towards the close again. Good luck
And the worms come out of the woodwork!
Perhaps you aren't a worm, but what incredible timing for you to post such a thing... I suppose he's trying to ruffle up some cheap shares.
One recommendation on this board - state specifics or just please stay off the board. i'm not against both sides of the story but your timing is convenient and you stated no facts in your posts... I invite you to state specifics or ask the board to review allowing you to post... I've met Jim multiple times and it's been a GREAT experience - he's passionate about pizza and it shows. He's got a lot of folks and close friends invested here, and he'll have to defend negativity, it's his job... I trust he'll do the right thing.
Well, time I chime in. I didn't see the video, but you can read back my posts from the last several weeks. I never trusted Fountain Capital nor Garland Harris. IMO he is a washed up, non-trustworthy person that will sell anything to make a buck, and it's dissapointing UPZS stayed with him so long. He is the reason I bought a lot of stock on the open market rather than through Fountain Capital. I've invested a long time and I DID NOT trust him. I'd love a true recap of this story to hear what exactly was said and alleged. We all know there are issues right now converting the PA stock into the public stock, so keep in mind this could just be a dopey news service making a mountain out of a mole hill - lets hope.
UPZS had better issue a press release at the close of business IF this even affects the stock. I would guess it may at the beginning due to swing traders, but if I were the company I'd have something ready but not issue unless necessary. Why create a lot of havoc if all that was created was a little confusion to a few small investors... Just IMO.
I hope they have dumped that Fountain Capital group and everything to do with them... Just my gut feeling on those guys... Hopefully Jim (or whomever is calling the shots) will realize this guy is just looking out for himself. And everytime I hear he's involved in franchises in TX or something (on the CC this was mentioned once if I'm correct), I say GET HIM OUT as we're better with a delayed location than to keep this virus in our company... Yes, these sound like harsh words, but if FC was in any way negatively involved with this, having them involved in any manner will hold the trust in the company down. If this is the case break all agreements with them and move on.
I look forward to hearing more details on this news deal - I couldn't download it and would love to see it. I've met this mgmt and they are all class acts and smart individuals - they'll make this company goes if they don't let others get in their way and thwart their momentum.
sorry for the long post and again it's all IMO
Thanks for the note Ordinary. I hope you continue posting with your experiences. I'd certainly like to know how the demand goes, any trends you're seeing with your stores, etc... You can become quite valuable to this board and of course valuable to us Shareholders. I think so long as we're all respectable to each other it's good conversation and learning experience.
If you go back to my first couple posts I got hit hard for the way I posted as well, but now feel that it's all good and that great debates and ideas are shared.
Stick around and keep us posted on how you do. I have family in CLT and will send them the way of your store when you're up and running.
Ordinary Guy-
Best of luck with your initiative down in NC. The next time I'm in CLT I'll most definitely be stopping by for lunch or dinner. I think this is a most exciting business, and have been investing in it for over a year now. Please keep the board posted as you progress and let us know how demand is, the response you are getting, and any other updates you feel comfortable providing.
I agree the NASCAR deal is potentially significant, and if I remember correctly they aren't spending a lot of $$$ for this sponsorship. If we get a turn of luck and have a few wins, this could really propel the visibility of UPZS.
Again, this mgmt team is good, and I think they can execute. Things sometimes take just a little longer than planned, I know from other experiences and investments. Best of luck!
Hi Z,
My personal opinion is that they're being quiet until after the merger is announced and completed. I can't believe it's taking this long anyway, but we'll see what happens.
They need to have some more "business building" press releases on new topics and new locations to get the market excited, seems that what they've released today is baked into the price... Be patient and lets hope they get the merger done without a hitch, and announce something with regards to the OTC BB soon!
Exactly... I like Jim and think he is doing a good job creating buzz, and I know from my business dealings that things definitely get delayed. We have a finite amount of time to move here with the limited cash. I'm not terribly concerned, just hope they don't end the year with only 20 stores, as that would be a dissapointment.
I also look forward to hearing what comes through from the mailing they did in MA. I agree that they have brought some good business minds in. My hope is that the shares stay in strong hands so we can see the valuation really ramp-up, that's what we're all here for in the end. I think it'll happen, but the structure needs some help.
Let's hope by the end of March there are several more concrete openings as well as fresh new committments. I love the corporate store idea as well, glad they're doing that!
Sounds about right to me. I think it's worth repeating that all of these Executive level folks at UPZS raised money from friends and family, and are seriously interested in increasing shareholder value. They can't just "throw in the cards" when it's tough and blame someone else, because they've brought so many people into this deal. Fact is, it's taking longer to execute their plans, but they also seem to have enough cash on hand to expand. The onus is on them to get more stores coming onboard, and cash flow.
If the share structure is too loose (which I think it is), they'll have to fix it at a cost. I believe Fountain Capital advised poorly on this and it'll affect the speed at which we can go up in the near future. When this gets sorted out, hopefully we can start thinking in terms of dollars on this one. That would be great. It will take some surgery as to the capital structure of the firm. Once the cash starts rolling in though, some of these concerns will go away.
In the end, it's a start-up, and exciting start-up with a promising product in a very good, but competitive, market. There is a lot for Pizza Hut and Papa Johns, Domino's and others to lose from UPZS. I hate their product and know a ton of people who do. There hasn't been a viable nationwide chain alternative until I believe now. Still, to be nationwide the expansion has to increase. This is stuff we all know, but the risks are laid out and the company is fairly valued or slightly over-valued today (IMO) based on their execution. Fidler will be pushing for a lot of stores quickly, and the market will too. I thought the merger was supposed to be done in January, but here we are in February with no news on it. I'm big on communication, and the company needs to begin communicating again.
Just some current thoughts. I'm loaded with this stock and hope like none other I'm correct. Looking forward to the company increasing its pace.
Sweet... Great info. I like the look at it on the site as well. I hear the NC store is in a superb location from friends in CLT, lets hope it has great success. I will stop there next time I'm in the area...
Well, if they're going to hit 100 stores (or whatever #), they have to get to 10 first. Looks like we'll be there by the end of February. The boys have to begin duplicating quicker though to hit their end of 07 goals! As long as there is steady expansion I'm pretty happy. Positive Cash Flow is the barometer I'm watching closely, as it's still a small company that is cash-conscious.
Good luck
I'm with Skunk. Remember folks, it's risk vs reward. You either like the strategy, product, and mgmt, or you dont. The price is languishing but that's IMO b'c of uncertainty in the mkt. They are supposed to be done with this merger, which creates uncertainty, stores are opened slower than expected, that breeds uncertainty, and there have been virtually no press releases of late.
The price will take care of itself as the business plan is executed and grows. Patience my friends.
My current thought is that they should probably discontinue the conference calls. Yes, they've been nice, informative, and have helped us in our investment decisions. But, they take up a long time and effort. It's time to drop the training wheels and let these boys run a company. They are swamped in Pittsburgh, just call the HQ, a lot of energy and a lot going on. Many of us say we are long-term investors here, and I feel we need to treat it that way. We cannot agonize over every word. It's a simple business really.
The main objectives right now for management are opening new stores, maximizing revenues on these stores, and branding - IMO. If they have to spend time appeasing us each and every week indefinitely, it will take their eye off the ball. They are very polite, but I feel we now have to allow them to expand the business, maximize the use of their cash, and push this forward. What we need is time to execute. I believe 100% in communication and I've got a heck of a lot of questions to ask as well, but I'd rather see them execute their plan with brut force. They should be issuing PR's with each important development in the company, and that should suffice.
As for Fountain Capital, I'm not concerned if I ever hear anything else about what they're up to. IMO, they've served their purpose and now are a distraction. UPZS has plenty of cash per the last CC (I read this on the board here, and have heard that from calls to the company), hence they do not need them. Plus, if they need more $$$ they can access money DIRECTLY via private placements from their shareholders, contacts, Tom D could help, etc... Why pay Fountain Cap a cut to do this from here on forward, doesn't make a lick of sense! I like JD's info and hope he continues to provide us tidbits, but one piece of advice on firms like Fountain - they tend to sometimes be more concerned about themselves. One of their reps (won't name names :) ) tried convincing me it's the norm for company's to trade over 100+ times their earnings. He hasn't read much market history. If it was up to him I would have ran the opposite direction faster than a cheetah.
Jim sold me on UPZS, not Fountain Capital. Each person probably has their own unique position on this, and opinion - this is just mine. Jim's whole world is a pizza entreprenuer. We're investing in an entreprenuerial pizza company! He has surrounded himself with mostly A players and that is a close #2 behind money in getting a start-up going. You need the cash to get the players.
Good luck and have faith and hope that you invested in a management team that can execute a gameplan - if they do I believe you'll be richly rewarded. If you want to know the requirements for the BB, go to their website and check it out, don't scrutinize every word of a pizza expert for this! The company must be audited, NOT $1!
Looking forward to seeing how they do in February, and hope they more formally start communicating to the rest of the world, and not just a few <perceived> nervous shareholders!
All IMO.
Just as I write there are no new PR's :)
This is expected, but nonetheless good news... We need one or two of these per week... They'll get there, it's a learning curve still, and we need to expect that. We just have to worry about the break-even metric the company has. How long does there cash last vs. how long it takes for the royalties to ramp-up...
I believe Skunk is correct. I don't honestly even know how to get on the CC, so I didn't hear anything. I listened to a few archived ones when they were online.
My opinion is they want all the shareholders in one place, the few stores that Jim owned on UPZS' books, etc; before submitting completed, audited financials. This is the way I'd do it. So, the merger hasn't happened, was SUPPOSED to take place in January, but didn't. They are indeed working on it, but it's slipping apparently.
I wonder if this is why we're seeing no PR's of any sort as of late... They need to get all of these legalities wrapped up and move this business forward. Time is money and everyday is expensive when you're a start-up.
That being said, I am going to somehow try and be at the Milwaukee store opening if I can get there the day it opens, whenever they finalize a date. I believe it's in the next 3-4 weeks. So if they give us enough notice, I may be able to get up there although like someone else said it's a big effort for a pizza, but you need to see the business!
Good luck, and I hope we hear something soon.
Jim has stated numerous times that they get paid $20K from each franchisee for each location, and they have a minimum of 5 to committ to. This is what I mean by the $$ from the franchisees keeps coming in, they have a lot of committments. They do have to get the stores coming in and start collecting the residuals though, without a doubt. And yes, Jim has mentioned that Mr. Fidler would help finance stores around the country, he is working on some deals currently if I recall correctly.
Overall, it's a patience game. If you're looking for the quick buck (or quick run up) this may be the wrong spot for you. They need to duplicate a successful model as many times as possible - and this is where the company will make a killing, and thus its shareholders. IMO
Thanks. I think your summary is good as well. The Bob Fidler addition can't get enough mention. The significance of having him on the Board, and his financial resources (#1 reason business fail is running out of cash) is huge. Also, he is partnering on the corporate-owned stores. I think that this is a big deal. I believe corporate-owned stores are a good part of this strategy to get the word out.
Management has been pretty honest, and the fact that they face their investors each week in a CC has been important. I for one hope they discontinue this sooner or later, as it does eat up time, and if you're invested, youre invested. Jim can better spend his time building the business. If you can't afford to lose some $$$, you shouldn't be in speculative stocks! This being said, they are generous with their time, and I feel they have the shareholders interests aligned quite well with their own, which is very rare.
People like a good story, especially investors. Make sure your friends are trying the food, and looking at the company as a potential investment. Send them to this board, the company website, and the CC's for info's and opinions. It's really a grass-roots efforts, and I have faith the little entrepreneur can beat these monster companies. Look at Croc's, Jimmy John's (i love this place for a sandwich), Google, JetBlue, etc... anyway, you get the picture.
Most food company's are only worried about the bottom-line, and thus the quality of the experience goes down, as well as the quality of the food. This always opens the door to good competition. Again, I use the very simple principle that there are basically no chain pizza shops that I order from anymore, and just a couple independents that are really good. We'd love to have a Unique in our neighborhood!
Good luck, and keep the ideas floating.
For what it's worth, I'll put my current thoughts and opinions down.
The stock is definitely dead money until the audited financials and merger are completed. It is my opinion that is why they have been so quiet, they are waiting to complete this.
The committments and $$$ from franchisees keeps on coming in, which tells me that they realistically could get to 75+ stores in 2007. That is very significant and would put them in the top 25 of all pizza chains, growing up the list quickly. I'd love to hear on a CC how the current stores revenue are doing...
I have to imagine that there is a significant amount of stock coming into the mkt once the merger is done, but with that said, I do believe there are a lot of strong hands in the stock. I know for one that I am most definitely not looking to sell for a few years. The way I look at it is we'll make a very good amount of $$ if we're right, or we'll lose our investment and the risk side of the equation will come home to roost.
We have some very powerful external dynamics that could work in our favor though, in my opinion. It is MY opinion that the economy is going to get shakey rather soon (probably in 07), and that means that more $$$ will be spent on eating out in the non-Chili's, Applebees, chains. People's habit is to eat out, but they'll be more apt to eat at Papa Johns, Unique Pizza, Subway, Jimmy Johns, etc... I doubt that lifestyles will change all that much, but if consumers have less to spend they'll go where they get more for their money. Pizza is generally a fairly recession-proof business.
An even more outlying idea is that the race car we're sponsoring actually starts winning, and gets upgraded to the Busch series or even the Nextel Cup. It's a long-shot, but the publicity could be perfect timing with a slew of stores opening. I'm not betting on this, but like the possibility of it happening someday.
Lastly, I think the stock market could be in for a fall soon, or at least people will be less-optimistic. Why would this help us?? It gives mgmt a little more time to get the model built well, and when the market decides to rally big again, hopefully we can really jump on the PR and get significant institutional interest in the stock. This again is just my speculation, but it wouldn't necessarily be terrible for us.
I think you have to look 2 years out on this, and watching each tick is going to cause you much nervousness. It is thinly traded, needs to get to the OTC quickly, and there are dynamics that could scare shareholders in the near term (audit, merger, etc). We should be a $200M company in 18-24 months if I were to guess, and that is a quadruple from here, I'd take that to start. In 5 years, you never do know, but if things go as planned (IF!), it could be a $500M-$700M company. Don't be so dissapointed with how quickly market cap grows today, look at the model, look at the way the local stores are doing financially, look at the # of committments to open new stores, and consider the acquisitions they could make a couple years down the road when things get moving... It's an investment, and there are a lot of long-term investors here that trust the mgmt and have put good $$ behind it.
Good luck. All IMO.
There was sure a lot of volume today, and obvious buying at the end of the day. We should hear something about something soon IMO. From the CC's, seems like a lot is going on, but no releases... maybe the merger of the DE/PA companies will be announced or something...
Thanks for the great update. If the $4000 per day is accurate, that really is darned good. I wonder how much that has to do with location? But, either way, if the food wasn't good they wouldn't come back.
As for CLT, that's a great sign, 3 weeks isn't too far away really. All of the Nascar has a lot of people coming there. What if the UPZS race car really took off, Ken would have a boon of business I'm sure! That is just another wild card in this exciting race : Phelps Motorsports... It's a branding opportunity, and if I remember they didn't pay for much of this at all.
Thanks again, if you hear anything else or visit the store please do advise...
Thanks for the update. Is there anyway that we can get the info for the live calls? If I'm in town I'd love to take the time to sit in on one live and ask questions... If there is a better place to find this info, please direct me if you could...
I'm surprised, not a single share traded today! No one selling, no one buying!
I don't understand where you think that I am over-estimating the potential of this! I stated a couple of days back why we WOULDN'T trade in the dollars with this share structure. I'm not stating in the least bit that we are comparable to papa johns, but utilizing it as a benchmark.
I understand the institutional side of the business quite well, and I'm not expecting slews of analysts to promote this anytime soon. Typically it's $5 / share before they can promote it. We aren't even to audited financials yet... I'm not certain why the post was geared towards me hyping this at all, I simply explained to Wyatt wy I didn't think it would go to $4 per share this year, that plain and simple will not happen IMO, no way no how.
A $68M market cap (or whatever it is) today is high for a start-up company. I do believe it has lots of potential, but I think the analysis I've shared on this board is not hyping at all, but rather objective of the situation... You confuse me a little my friend!
Good luck all...
Correct. I intend to choose a 25% bonus in my shares... I'm certain statistically that some folks will opt to just take their shares, and perhaps take the large % increase they've made and diversify. Most bought in between $.05 and $.10/share...
We're all guessing, but out of 300 shareholders I'm sure a few will float their stock, how material it'll be I'm not too sure though...
We'll see soon enough! I 'm really looking forward to combing the audited financials when they're released as well. This is what the institutions will look at when deciphering whether it's a good investment or not...
I agree. There will likely be an immediate increase in the float. These shares will no longer be restricted (at least not all of them), so in essence I think they'd then float. It may bring increased liquidity and trading to the company though... I'm crossing my fingers that the market doesn't bring the stock down on the merger news... I'm sure they've articulated everything well.
Hi Wyatt,
I appreciate your insight, and I also agree there is an equal chance of them just buying back stock, but they also may choose to use their cash flow to open more company stores. Jim mentioned that they were looking at company stores in either the CC or the Investor meeting, can't remember. I'm not so sure it's a good idea to buy back too much stock before the model is fully deployed across the US - but I definitely would like to see less shares o/s. From the CC, seems like I'm not the only one looking at this...
No matter which way they decide to utilize the cash they have on hand, by getting to $4, the following would be true as it stands today:
1) They have around 500M shares outstanding. This would make their market cap around $2B. Let's put that into perspective. Domino's has a current market cap of about $1.7B, Papa Johns has a current market cap of about $915M. California Pizza Kitchen has market cap of about $640M. I am very excited as well, and I don't think you need to apologize for being excited!! But, that being said, MY OPINION, is that they could be a $100-$150M Market Cap company by year end. With the current amount of shares applied to this, you're looking at a price of $.30-$.40/share. Just my opinion. That's a potential great %-age move.
2) I agree completely that they have a lot at stake, and that they are quite focused. They most definitely have a concern for their shareholders, most are family and friends, which makes it more personal.
I have been invested in this company since the end of 05, so I have a vested interest to see this go, but I also have made many investments and am calling this the way that I see it. The way I see it is very good, but I think $4 is probably after a reverse split (or a massive buyback & retiring of shares, I suppose). Just IMO. Sure it's exciting and I think they truly are going to revolutionize the business of pizza, and raise the bar. Debating the issues is positive for all of us, and we're all free to have our own opinions in the end, as well as make our own decisions on whether to invest, divest, or hold.
I appreciate the response with your thoughts, and look forward to continue speaking about their prospects... I'm as excited today as I've been for a year, and they in my opinion have done an admirable job in achieving what they've promised. The uplisting to the OTC will be great for the company, as I would imagine there are institutions/brokers that would like to promote this to their clients.
Good luck!
Listened to the CC from 1/3... Some thoughts...
1)No increase in the authorized shares or shares outstanding as a result of the merger. That's very good news in my opinion.
2) The company didn't completely dismiss the idea of a potential reverse split somewhere in the future to help them get on Nasdaq. Not needed for OTC. Maybe my analysis and opinions weren't that far out there. No one said it was necessarily a bad thing.
3) 4-6 new stores open by end of January. That's positive. I look forward to feedback from those within the new markets on the response to the new store.
4) The CLT location seems to be moving along, with some admitted hurdles, so I don't know that there is any funny business going on, as someone posted could be a potential earlier.
All in all, they did a decent job of devulging info, and I look forward to reading the 8-page document regarding the merger.
Any others have any opinions on the call?
Meant postings, my apologies.
Where can we find old conference call audio links? I'd definitely like to hear some of the recent ones.
Another day where the stock went down most of the day, and then miraculously recovered with decent volume at the end, it's very strange. Does anyone have any other insight on that?
I hope to hear from the company very shortly with some sort of update on store openings...
Great feedback, thanks a bunch Roger! Was the store busy when you were there? What were the feedbacks on the quality of food from the other folks that went with you? I too like the creativity they use for their choices of pizza, just hope they don't get copied by the big boys.
The call center is definitely a plus, and yes the calls are all routed through their Pittsburgh call center, where the folks are trained to cross-sell and make it a good ordering experience. How many times have you called one of the other chains only to be put on hold, with loud clitter-clatter in the background. Plus, the workers rarely try to cross-sell because they are so busy and unfocused on the phone call.
Hopefully UPZS makes as good of a first impression for a lot of others that it made with you!
As for the comparisons to bigger chains, one must have a reference point to refer to while in investing. I have looked a a ton of different pizza company's, their marketcap, sales, growth, # of locations, etc. I don't have a problem comparing to the first days of PAPA Johns, and I think that someday we will be a formidable rival to them. It's too early to declare victory, but the momentum seems decent and if the food is good (which I think it is), they will come and tell their friends about it. Their leveraging of technology should only inhance the business and make it even more productive and profitable. Sounds like they have a very sharp management. Lots of folks are rooting for UPZS's success in this venture, and most are financially in the game as well! I have very high hopes.
Good luck.
All IMO
I agree with both points, for what it's worth. Firstly, we are investing in start-up company. It is definitely a lot less risky than a year ago when I first invested in UPZS. If you look at the developments, there are a whole lot of people investing real $$$ in franchise fees and they are attracting credible folks to open and promote the franchises (i.e. the group in the NE, Robert Fidler, great management team). Keeping in mind the risks of a tiny company such as this is very important. I like the story, the product, and the industry that UPZS is entering into. Once they get their foundation (which they are building now), it is a very high cash-flow business for them, and it is quite easy to duplicate.
On the other hand, I agree that it is disconcerting if the company is not getting back to shareholders in a reasonable time, with any sort of info. If there are privacy concerns, they should let us know. I look forward to hearing what the company tells you about the CLT franchise. There has to be some communication, and I'd encourage you to continue seeking info on it... I appreciate holding them to communication, no matter how large or small an investor you are. SOME TYPE of explanation is expected by me as well. The link shared regarding the openings in CLT does make me feel fairly decent about the situation though...
As we begin into 2007, I must say I'm pretty excited about the prospects of the company here. Most of us won't have the guts or the chance to be entrepreneurs on our own to make a ton of money, so in my opinion this is the second-best way to be involved in your own business, through investing in a proven vision with a solid model, and letting them proceed accordingly. If we are correct in our assessments and this turns out to be a top-20 franchise in the pizza world, our investment will pay off extremely handsomely.
Good luck, and continue the great conversations.
IMO
Robert Fidler
http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2006/Nov/09/br/br0327896415.html
I really think this guy is going to be significant... It says here he has opened over 500 fast-food restaurants. Out of all of the company's he could choose to work with today, why UPZS? Someone did a great job of selling him on our value... I have been thinking a lot this holiday season about the affect he could have on UPZS in 2007, and as I think many of you agree, it is quite significant...
I think it's time to be excited, and to evaluate where your investment is in this company, and what type of investment do you want in 2008 or 2009 in this company? One more year of development of this proven business model should really awaken the street, but of course, not while they're on the pink sheets...
As for the CLT franchise, I'm not sure at all. They wouldn't and can't release the info if it isn't accurate, it could be a privacy issue, one never knows. I am interested if you hear anything from the company on it though, nonetheless. They should at least explain at minimum why they can or cannot release the info... Agreed on that. Each investment has a risk spectrum, and this is definitely in the more risky segment. No risk, no reward though. How many more times will you see such great potential at such an early time in a company, at such a low price? The answer can only be answered individually, but I haven't seen too many better opportunities...
Good luck and Happy New Year. Cheers to much success in UPZS - me thinks it's going to be a great entreprenuerial success!
All IMO!
JD-
I graduated with a Finance Major. My affiliation with the company is solely as an investor. I have been on a couple conference calls in the last year. I'm not sure who Financial Tree or Geharris is though, to be honest. I am certainly not an insider, but rather I'm an avid investor that researches quite a lot.
When I look at very small companies such as this, I like to examine the industry they are in (I wouldn't consider myself a food service industry expert, though I have spent a lot of time studying the industry). As for this company, I have a nice investment (for me) into it, believe in their strategy, and want to see them succeed. I don't invest flippantly, and develop potential scenarios and the effect on each of them on the share price. The scenario that I developed I communicated in my first post. As I mentioned, I am speculating on most of this, but aren't we all speculating on UPZS as an investment at this point? I really have no clue why that other guy is so concerned about my thoughts, I suppose I'm not privy to the "rules of posting" as I don't do it much. I figured we could all converse and learn each others rationales and hopefully learn some new perspectives. I rarely use boards, but last night I googled UPZS to see what the buzz was, and found this board and read it for over an hour... Pretty simple...
I'm just hoping that they get the DE/PA merger done, as that has been an issue since the beginning of the shares going public, and that is not a secret...
Yes, the share structure bugs me a little, but I have concluded that there are ways to correct it in the longer term. Heck, we won't have to worry too much about it (IMO) until the stock is many multiples of where it is today, in which we'll all have been hansomely rewarded. If I'm wrong than we keep all of these shares outstanding, and even if we get as big as Papa Johns, the shares will be priced at $2 since PZZA is around a $1B company. (not a bad return either)... It just depends which way you analyze the scenario.
In the end, I'm a very active investor in a few industry's, and UPZS is just a great story and I've spent more than the usual time figuring out potential scenarios. I like that they attracted good talent, and I like the beginning marketing ideas, and most importantly the product is a hit. The stores in PA for the last decade were very successful and in fact I believe they were a big threat to competing chains. If they enhance the experience, they will enhance their business.
If my opinions are a problem moving forward, I will certainly cease writing on this board. I figured you may enjoy some company and some different perspectives. My postings are now done for today as i'm limited as a new member to 3!
Good luck, and hopefully we can post ideas and thoughts and dissect UPZS as an investment more. I always invest at my own risk, and recommend everyone do the same.
All IMO!!!
Regards
Most definitely IMO.
I thought I made that clear by stating that it's through investigation and I had no inside information. The investigations I speak of are of small companies that buy a shell to go public, and how they grow. With this share structure, it is my opinion that we'll see a reverse split around $.85 to $1.25/share. Who would know ANYTHING for certain! It is from experience that I speculate this.
Reverse splits can be good or bad, but firstly worry whether the business model is sound and the cash flow is attractive - it will be if they execute as promised... If the business is going well, a reverse split won't be viewed too negatively, but it adds some risk factor, sure... Perception is reality, and perception is everything in the market.
I am an investor in the company and want to try to add compelling thought topics. Since I'm new to Investors Hub I only get 3 posts per day, and the response to this puts me at #2!
Good luck, and don't watch this all too closely, it's a good long-term investment, and one would think that institutions that are hot on fast-food would love to buy stock in the company, but can't given its low price and share structure. I look forward to compelling thought on how else to solve the interesting share structure. I also look forward to any other perspectives overall on the company that will better educate all of us. I like the Peter Lynch principles, "buy what you understand" and I completely understand the model this company has, and the product is also quite good.
All of the above IMO!
Regards.
Newcomer to board, UPZS thoughts!
Hello,
I am new to the board, but am also long-and-strong UPZS, and have been for most of 2006. I have several comments to make after exploring this board and reading the messages from the last 3-4 months. I don't have any inside info unfortunately, but have been on some conference calls and investigated other matters on my own.
First of all, I am VERY bullish on UPZS moving forward. They truly are uniquely positioned to make a huge move into the fast-food pizza business. There hasn't been any really new players in a while that have tried to combat Domino's or Pizza Hut directly, UPZS indeed is. Firstly, should the economy slow, fundamentally speaking, folks are going to still eat fast food in the US - this lifestyle is currently baked in to their normal day. Will they go to high end restaurants if money gets somewhat tighter?? Probably not. Will they opt for Applebees/Chili's? Maybe, but they will most likely go for where they get a lot of bang for their buck. UPZS offers this.
Secondly, from a pragmatic standpoint, how many of you have thought about ordering in a pizza, and the thought comes to your head "what should we get this time?" It's almost as if you're locked into Domino's or Pizza Hut, even though honestly their pizza lacks taste and the ingredients are different depending on where you get the pizza and which date you order it (b/c their business is now ALL about the #'s). I love pizza but dread ordering in, and would love an alternative. I've had UPZS food and it is awesome, and great bang for your buck!
Now for the stock... Folks, there is no reason you should be watching every tick on this. Most of the shares are in very strong hands, of friends and family of the company. They are going to wait for execution of the business plan before even considering selling. Yes, the execution has been slower than we wish, but most new companies tend to become over-exuberant in the beginning. This company had many growing pains getting started, but the telltale sign of their success is the # of committed franchises. Remember, each of these stores can cost upwards of $200k, a big investment that smart people are NOT going to partake in without some high degree of confidence. Why not build a Quizno's or something more proven?? This to me is wildly bullish!
There will most definitely be a merger of the PA and DE company, likely in January if I were to guess, and I do think they'll produce some audited #'s soon thereafter as well. Persoanlly if I were to speculate I would say the company is being quiet in leiu of getting the merger done. Why release too much before that is done? One piece of advice, do NOT let the merger shake you up at all, it's been planned for a year!
The share structure is one sticking point with me. I have voiced my opinion in many different ways to the company on this. My speculation after being involved in the market for over a decade is that they are aware that to get the institutions buying, they need a tighter share structure, and need to be up-listed. My opinion is they will get uplisted onto the OTC BB sometime in Q2/Q3 of 2007. This will significantly help the stock price. Back to the share structure, there are around 68M (don't quote me) shares floating, with 486M outstanding. Far too many. Just to get to the market cap of PAPA Johns, the stock would hit $2. Folks, there WILL be a reverse split of some sort. Why worry though? They would NEVER do it below $.85-$1.00. If the did a reverse split at $1 at 1-5, that would put the stock price at $5/share. To get listed on a major exchange you must be at that price level. Once the cash-flow runs positive the company will begin buying back shares...
All in all, I think the company is a compelling story. I think they have enough cash to build the business now, and 07 will be a true execution year. They have a few major milestones to hit, and we'll be well on our way... Up until now it's been start-up mode, once the merger is done than I think you'll see a lot more news about store openings.
Good luck!