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The uncertainty of rates vs the certainty of time delay. What would you do if the unrealized gain were in your personal account? I know what I would do.
I think if one does a back of the envelope projection of third qtr revs & expenses being reported around second week of Nov, combined with the historical pattern of qtrly disclosure, then it is logical to push out the unrealized (and non- taxable) short gains into the new tax year. I know that is what I would do if I were sitting on such an unwound gain.... And I would want to see it stay in place as is. Their just isn't enough revenue thrust to break it right now IMO. If we see the institutional ownership continue to grow as of Sept 30 then I believe that will mean a lot in a positive way.
player....I agree. We do need to see the revenue distribution develop across a broader spectrum in 2011. I guess where we have come from is impressive, no doubt, but still much more growth and dispersion of revenue is needed and hopefully time and market development/penetration takes care of some of this.
ICBW but I believe as long as Wave's annual revenues keep growing Yr over Yr like they are......and once they reach $75mm to $100mm the inevitable will occur. JMO.
IMO, I don't think the shorts have any intention to cover in 2010. I think they will hold us flat or lower into 3rd qtr earnings and ye tax selling. Unless we get something earth shattering in 2010 of course. What will be very interesting to me is the institutional filings as of Sept 30. Hopefully we continue to see an increase in ownership. I still believe we will see growth in revenues across 2011 into 2012 and then she goes on the block at some point. Hopefully at a price that compensates fairly for all the pain throughout this long, crazy journey. Again, JMO only. Good luck to all the longs.
No irrational exuberence here for sure. Just measured evaluation and analysis of Wave's steady progress in the current unfolding global development and deployment of trust computing.
I think they are making fantastic traction in their target market. In fact, Wave is leading the pact. This market is just beginning to unfold and Wave is right in the middle of all the technology that is rolling out. It has taken a while to get to where we are....but we are in the middle of it.
Pretty good system when you have a license to print money and also control the risk. Like having the final score before you bet on the game. What a deal. Go figure!
So they get a better price than the buyer at the close yesterday. Maybe they are trying to average the price pt at 2.50. Impossible to know....
awesome week. Lots of good things developing and we appear to be in the center of a lot of it. Thanks to all who provide such great DD on this board. I am looking forward to seeing everyone in person some day.
IMO it just makes more sense to buy the common on a dip and avoid any risk with the options expiring worthless. Oh well, to each his/her own.
dig...I think your timelines are very realistic.
RTTW...you are spot on IMO.
DD...do you think they grew to top line revenue by 15% in Qtr 3?
WD...I think 4 Qtr is probably our best chance at the first earnings qtr IMO based on what we know from what has been publicly disclosed so far and looking at the past qtr expense levels. I guess it could come in 3rd, but I am playing it conservatively. If we are positive in the 3rd, it will probably be a real small number...but still great considering where we have come from. I know I am ready for the ride we have all been waiting so patiently for, but at the same time, I am tempering my outlook going into the last part of the year. Sept could give us more insight and I need that myself for sure. I don't trust these MMs at all right now. Until the revs get larger they can play a lot of games going into the holidays. I for one am looking forward to seeing what the institutions did in the 3rd Qtr when they file. If we held the levels from 2nd qtr or increased during the 3rd then that could bode well. Best of luck to you.
I think it best to stick to fundamentals. We need revenues to grow faster and larger. That is what will propel the stock price with stability IMO. Of course, anything can happen with Sept being so active. I'm not sure about the 3rd qtr revenue being materially larger than 2nd qtr, but hopefully Sept gives us more concrete insight into what is to come down the road. I think dig is correct in his approach to valuing the company at this junction in time.
Agree...way, way too early. Once we get to $100mm in annual sales then it could get interesting. But this year looks like around $30mm, so a lot to do yet.
The MMs and shorts are in control of the stock and probably will be for the rest of the year IMO. They are sitting on huge gains at the moment and I think they will push the bulk of it into 2011 due to tax implications. And things at Lee are very quite, though maybe not refective of actual progress, but certainly nothing to bring a lot of external attention and fanfare. Maybe by design due to strategic intent and confidentiality agreements. Who knows. Maybe this all changes today, but it never seems to. As long as revenue growth continues then at some point in time we finally get going up. I think this first round of buyouts are focused on some of the core software players, in effect an unseating and recalibration. But I believe other rounds will at some point materialize once the niches are carved out securely and revenues have reached much higher levels. I think maybe in next 12 to 24 months or thereabouts. JMO.
Weby....it is just incredible how they decide to pick up on Wave in the last two rediculous pieces. I take it as a contra indicator but unfortunately the average joe investor may not.
oknpv....I agree with your post. We won't hear about 3rd qtr earnings until around Nov 10 - 15. Sometime 30 to 45 days (can't remember what the timing is) after Sept 30 we get the institutional ownership updates. We have the great conferences in mid Sept, so hopefully some news comes around this time. I think after 3rd qtr earnings we will be closing in on holidays and into year end tax movements....the reason why I think the shorts aren't in a hurry and the MMs can just mint money slowly the rest of the year. I am setting my sites on confirming information in mid Sept and hopeful for a good strong earnings report with maybe a new nugget PR or two sandwiched in between Nov 1 and Dec 31. But I still think it will be 2011 through 2012 where we will see this stock start its climb...we just need more signs that revenues are escalating at a much stronger and faster pace.
Wonder who just keeps streaming these 100 share trades through all day long? Bizarre
In my opinion, we are at least 12 - 24 months away from any serious consideration of a buyout possibility. I believe once Wave has a lock on 100 millon in annual revenue with the clear vision into exponential expansion then I feel it could come. But I have a feeling we get a split in before it happens. JMO
I personally don't think they have any intentions of covering it quite yet but I could certainly be wrong.. Jmo.
1260.......good points. And I believe in line with that logic they entice a little margin in this area of $2 - 2.50 cause they can work this narrow range so easily. Until a major catalyst changes the revenue picture I expect them to yo-yo this narrow range with the swings in the dow. JMO.
Ask yourself this question.....if you were sitting on the kind of gains the shorts have from the russell rebalance.....going into the Sept/Oct time frame and into year end....what would you do from a cover and tax perspective?
Unless a major catalyst brings in lots of new buying in the stock, I am expecting it to take the rest of the year to get this situation completely cleaned up. We will know a lot more when we see the institutional activity as of 9/30. But some my wait until end of year for tax reasons. Of course it could turn around sooner but these MMs have made a mess of things for the time being. All JMO.
I for one will be glad when these bozos have sufficiently reduced their position, squeeze or no squeeze.
Sounds like about $20 - $25 range.
What will be most telling is the institutional ownership filings as of 9/30. If we see that the current ownership levels continue to grow and did not drop back off then this will tell us all a lot IMO.
IMO I think it is a 2011 transition if at all, assuming they would even be receptive to entertaining giving up a piece which to this point they haven't...but I feel management will certainly need to adapt and modify if they want to score the home run and go along for the big ride.
Everyone has to evaluate the margin decision based on their own financial situation and risk tolerance. That is why such caution is given at this time. We all know from past experience that end of the year tax related movements can again give rise to the same scenario we have recently observed. Hopefully not but the potential does exist so caution is warranted IMO.
I think sometimes margin makes sense if used in the right way and amount....but with a stock like Wave in its early phase with such a restricted float...the greed monsters can raid it easily and get their shares. I think that is what we are all trying to say that right now is very dangerous for this as we enter the next few months into year end.
Weby....very good points. New customers, closed contracts, growing revenues.....all validated in the filings and known to the investment community....will be what drives this stock on to where we all hope it goes....and will lessen the vulnerability we all face during this early stage of growth. Validation from conferences and actions by industry powerhouses certainly clear the forest in front of us and pave the road. There are hopefully more signs of validation to come as we proceed through the remainder of the year. But your advise on margin is very appropriate right now and I think especially for the remainder of this year. We still have 3rd and 4th qtr to ease through and I don't know how much new revenue will book in time for the next filing....but until more revenues are validated, our current liquidity level of shares could present another attempt by the shorts and manipulators. So margin players be very careful here. I was kind of starting to think that the MMs and shorts, in addition to drawing out the margin calls....were trying to parlay this lowball price into year end tax selling by the new funds that bought in the russell rebalance. I am not sure if that is the angle or if it will be....but I suppose when we see the institutional numbers for 9/30 we will get a better view of what the bigger players were doing in the months of July, August and Sept. If the institutional numbers continue to growth as we saw at the end of 6/30 then I believe we are seeing a new turning point. It is so hard to tell sometimes what is going on....maybe this recent attack was the last push down to allow the bigger players to get the stock they want on the cheap. I know from experience that I don't want to have something happen to me again.....several years ago I invested in LSI...I bought around $18....everything was really starting to look great for the company and then from out of nowhere...the stock starts dropping like a rock into the last few months of the year....it went down to less than $10 and I panicked and sold. Then one day a year or so later I looked in the paper and it was $60+....believe me....this ain't the feeling I want to have with Wave for sure. I am a believer in this company and I feel we are seeing more signs of validation...but a little more time is important for it all to come together in terms of revenue. Best of luck to all longs.
DD...the future will play out as it will, but I think Wave is grinding out their niche and penetrating their market in a multi-faceted way. They are in the center of this new paradigm. The market always seems to be kind of behind sometimes...meaning that a deal is possible but i think down the road some ways....I think it is possible for wave to get at least one split in before a deal takes place...but that is just my opinion and what I hope to see. Most of us have been here before and have been patient to wait it out and see it through. Just a few short weeks ago we were all on cloud 9 watching what looked like the true beginnings of the ride on up....but it appears that a little more time is needed and the market is all over the place so the MMs helped take us down along with the shorties help and russell rebalancing...all an opportunity to make some coin while drawing out the calls......and they did it perfectly. Maybe we get some interest back into this equity in the next few weeks...earnings may need a bit more time to grow to the point of drawing enough merit and attention for a move on it by someone. I would think a player would let Wave do the leg work of getting it entrenched and growing the revs up to $100mm+ before they move in. That is just my opinion only.
In my opinion a deal for Wave is inevitable but I think it is at least 12 to 24 months away and at the point they get to around the level of 100 million in annual revs. JMO.
This is about big money getting shares. Period. They will keep this equity right where they want it to be for as long as they want it to be until they get all they want to get. We are in the gap before things really take off IMO. Patience is a virtue. Know the game and play along with it to win. JMO only....to each his/her own.
We need to see this trend continue across qtrs 3 & 4. If it is true that big money accumulates 6 months in advance then we are right on course for big money to be in before year end locked and loaded in my opinion. Hope the institutional #'s continue to grow. I say let the powers that be get all they want to get at current prices. It may take them the rest of the year...who knows, but I so want this time to be the true beginning of a journey back to double digits with at least one forward slit.
same here....maybe in a range for now....but I truly believe that 2011 and beyond will be incredible..we just have to work through this period but better times are coming when we break free. A little bit more time...we have come so far...what a group of die hard investors....none comparable.
dig.....as it is to see as of now, I think your post is spot on. I kind of think that is why we see the quick sell off by the so quick and impatient uneducated crowd....however exacerbated of course by our illustrious and wonderful market makers....oh how we love them so. Not.
Wavxmaster........I just hope we see a little whisper in the winds and some positive volume on Monday and some green color. I also hope we get a filing so they can have something new to talk about on tues and wed ....something to generate some buzz with the investment community.