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What makes you so sure that CM won’t switch to AUC again? Eg, right before data release ….
Not sure of the confusion.
I’m happy with $15 over the next few months. What’s the contradiction with that?
Buyout is a long shot — and yes, if it happens, it would only be 2-3x of the then-stable price.
Only the most delusional are expecting it to go over $20 in less than 6 months. I’m only dreaming of $15-16 in a few months!
RSBQ-AUC was such a huge SCAM! Unfortunately, I had bought into his rationale. Look at his audacity — claiming that endpoints were changed before data unlock, as per FDA’s guidance!! The fact that he never revealed RSBQ-delta was always a big red-flag to me (Sumit R asked him once, and he blurted out something but never formally released).
He loves changing endpoints. Likely, he’ll do it again for EXCELLENCE—-that would surely be the death knell for this company and CEO.
I don’t think today’s action was bad — just some bad correction. The stock may retrace back to 10-10.5 area, but that may be a buying opportunity (from a technical standpoint).
Which investment bank would have their clients buy into a company run by a misleader/liar/procrastinator? No bank wants to touch a company that takes 6-12 months after study completion to PR data!
No, it takes them 6 months to get the raw data and another few months to compute endpoints.
Rather than trashing CM endlessly (yes, I am also guilty of that), better is to — accept the reality. He is the way he is. We can’t change him, or influence the board to replace him.
Key Q is: Given all the facts, what is the company worth now? Is it worth buying or holding? My take is:
1. AD’s trail as a P2 trial was a success.
2. Rett approval is a serious possibility.
3. Puts company worth $1-2B now, and potential to greatness over next 5 years (with a successful AD P3, which is certainly plausible).
Market seems to like AVXL in this price range — my reading of the recent action. No doubt about it. WHY? Market is certainly the smarter one here.
CM’s ineptness is very frustrating—but perhaps, is a blessing in disguise .. in that, it presents an opportunity?
I personally am slowly reducing my position until the CEO’s ways changes (too disturbing to handle otherwise, for my taste)..
And, LPC is working for free?
Haha. My takes from CM’s CC.
1. AD full data. In 2023? Not sure — could be 2024, 2025. But, I assure you asap.
2. Excellence trial endpoint. RIGHT NOW, our plan is delta-RSBQ, but you know us — can’t promise what it will be in 2 months, or when we see the data.
3. PDD OLD. Oops, are you guys still waiting for it?! Give us 6-12 more months. We need a few more months to compute an average of 400 values.
4. AD discussion with FDA. After we get our “hands” on full data (see #1 above), then we’ll talk **aggressively** with the agencies. Just 1-2 more years wait.
5. Other trials: All our previous trials have failed — so we are being extra cautious that these new ones succeed. So, that’s the reason for delay.
6. PDD trial full data: Forget about it!
He decided to leave AVXL and be on sidelines. I don't think his reasons for leaving have changed == so, he'll likely remain on sidelines, imo.
Down from $80?!
CEO is not all that matters about a company’s fortunes. However terrible CM may be wrt communications, AVXL can still go anywhere depending on the science results.
Haha. Fools are easily fooled. It takes 2+ months to calculate basic measures??!! No — it’s a few hours job, at most!
BUT, I don't trust CM anymore. He is a liar/truth-hider. So will sell 50% of my position over the short term, and keep the rest as a lottery ticket (anything is still possible with AVXL -- except the time frame can be as long as 5-7 years).
IMO, the stock is worth $12-24, even if the P2b/3 is a NON-pivotal trial. Each CC/event only makes the stock move forward (confirmation of what is to come -- Rett P3 results, full AD results, etc. etc).
That's my thinking and rationale to the stock's movement.
I’ll be “ok” (accepting the fate) if they all just fail. But very furious if CM puts out a new-endpoint and spins it. Why furious? Well, difficult to pin point …
What if all fail? Well, ORs then!
So, the AUC was used in AVATAR for “statistical need” reasons as opposed to being the better endpoint or guided by FDA? Wow! What a surprise!!
In the last CC (AFTER the start of excellence trial), he had said that the endpoint will be AUC. Now he says delta.
Did he then just change the endpoints again after trial start??
Don’t be so easily fooled. His game is to change the endpoints!!
Using far reaches of your imagination, can you possibly rationalize the following:
1. No data updates for 2 months on AD.
2. Not revealing the ORs and its thresholds as outcome measures in his many presentations before Dec 22.
3. Not revealing delta RSBQ in Avatar.
4. Not revealing delta ADL in AD trial.
I think the only answers are the obvious ones — he is hiding the harsh truths, and playing a show-half-and-hide-half game.
That said — the stock action is still robust. Why so? Is the above expected of all pre-revenue biotech companies? Perhaps.
What happened to AUC BS?
If you consider endpoints to be ORs, what’s the controversy? None
Perhaps. However, the SAP is not public. Also, "meeting" doesn't say much about p-values (and whether they are 1-tailed or 2-tailed, or whether they follow FDA guidelines).
“Meeting the endpoints” could’ve very subjective and hence may not be disputable in a court of law.
Which endpoints?
Meeting the endpoints is largely independent of p-values, ITT, etc.
So, company can get away with half-truths. But, nevertheless, a class action from the shareholders is called for. But at this point, I don’t see a case ..
Who does these calculations and measures? The company (avxl) or the CRO (third party)? Is there a clear separation between what the third-party and what the company does, in general?
Thanks.
And, you are confident because you have seen the full data? Lol
That basically means the results are not worthy of approval, only for publication — Ie only indicative of benefit so why do a PR.
Wonderful learning:
Technically, AVXL's looks very good. I think this is headed towards $12-13.
In spite of all our disappointments with AD data and half-truths, AVXL may still be worth $1-2B based on Rett approval potential, and AD's drug with a strong indication (and potential of success in P3).
A buyout for $1.5-2B is always a possibility.
Either way --- I don't like the current state of management's way to communicating with the market/investors. Hope to reduce my position drastically till that changes.
Don’t try to understand Blackrock’s strategy or play here. They could be owning AVXL for 100s of different reason than us — and, AVXL is certainly not worthless (by any measure it is worth $9-11 at this point). Neither is its future known predictable.
We also can’t blindly follow what Blackrock buys/owns — since we don’t know its strategy or plan.
We can only look at ours. What exactly are we owning it for? For a bust or lottery in 10 years? Fine then — then keep it fir 10 years untouched.
I hope you understand the point.
Or, would he use thresholds over AUC?
6 weeks later, CM has nothing to say to defend his blotched data release and presentation.
At least his defense — we need more time — sounds very foolish!!
Very strange. Was it there initially, and now removed? That will be shocking.
If it was never put up there -- then it's fine. Note that the presentation was given by SMcF -- who doesn't really work for Anavex.... so maybe thats why.
Do you have any hope of that (complete data package) happening?
Slowness is not terrible. But, hopelessly incorrigible is a disaster.
Who knows maybe CM has a plan.
Irrespective, what is almost indisputable is that he is playing a GAME —- of hide-some-tell-some. Undoubtedly.
Likely. The key question is what is in the SAP.
The problem is with this:
But the following combo is meaningful:
1. OR with 2-tailed p-value
2. Mean-change positive (without a low p-value).