Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Right on, Couch. The doubters will always point out something to discourage those who have not done their due diligence. Those of us who have done our DD know the only significant uncertainty is how long the Sunrise patients are surviving. That uncertainty will be removed next year. Based on Steve King's statement at the last CC both look-ins will occur during the first half or so of calendar 2016. The entire trial will be unblinded by year end 2016.
Of course, if one of our collaborators decides to take an equity stake in Peregrine before that time, we'll just have to watch the share price go up sooner.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Well said, Couch. The Sunrise trial can take the miserable PPS to a much higher level. I hope the first look-in will generate news hinting at Bavi's therapeutic affects. If we have to wait for the second look-in, it will be a long winter and spring around here. Unless, the Peregrine management can pull generate some reassuring PRs to keep us going.
I don't know about nefarious forces, but there sure are some folks here who really don't like Peregrine. I hope they will have reason to change their minds soon.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
I wonder what percentage of NSCLC patients treated with Opdivo enjoyed double the survival period of the SOC. I wonder how many more Opdivo NSCLC patients would have survived as long with Bavi in the mix.
I guess we'll just have to wait for the Sunrise trial and the new Bavi-Opdivo trials to find out.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
My question, does Peregrine act like they expect Sunrise to propel the company to the next level or not? The evidence can be interpreted both ways in my view.
For instance, Avid could be expanded to support a commercial Bavi launch or as a money maker to keep Peregrine afloat while management brings along Bavi in other indications.
Another ambiguous item. Bavi is being tested in melanoma, and new trials are coming in breast cancer. Do these items represent an attempt to broaden Bavi's clinical area or do they represent Plan Bs for a Sunrise disappointment.
My sense is Peregrine management knows enough about the Sunrise trial to predict the Bavi arm patients are living long enough to warrant FDA approval and success in the clinical market place.
Just a few more months to find out. Looking at the share price the wait will be nerve wracking.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
The share price sucks. However, there will be no reverse split, unless Bavi is a flop. Bavi will not flop. End of RS discussion.
Now seems like an odd time to make a negative assessment of Bavi and Peregrine. The Phase III trial is on track for full enrollment as scheduled. The study will produce two early look-ins and data unblinding next year.
As those who keep track know, Peregrine is moving forward on all fronts as fast as their funds allow. Doesn't smell like Bavi is a flop to me.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Trial Patients,
Paul
Not that I miss them, but have you noticed since the share price has been beaten down to a dollar, the usual chorus of negativity has dried up?
GLTA, Especially the Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
We longs do have our reasons to be optimistic. I hope Peregrine management can find some PRs material to keep us on their band wagon and to start the share price up from the current dismal level.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
cjgaddy, I can't get too excited about betabodies. If they were likely to have any real impact on Peregrine's immediate future, I'm sure management would be talking them up.
Meanwhile, Sunrise is closing in on full enrollment. If management can just keep investors interested for a few more months, great Sunrise results may finally move the share price up to a healthier place.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
CP, you raise an interesting point. SK did say he wanted as much of the US market as possible. I would interpret this to mean he would accept a partner is the US market if Peregrine could get a big enough share of the gross, perhaps with a guaranteed portion of the mabufacturing of Bavi.
We'll see. Soon would be very nice.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-Arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
As usual the focus here seems to be on everything except the FDA approval and the commercialization potential of Bavituximab vs the cost of development.
Talking about the development cost alone, i.e.dilution, is pointless unless it is in the context of the commercial potential of Bavi. If Peregrine has 400 million shares, but grosses $3 billion a year I think shareholders will be just fine. If it only grosses $1 billion a year, I'm not sure shareholders will be happy. See my point?
I want to know how soon Bavi can be approved. I want to know how many indications will be commercially significant for Bavi. Is it lung, breast and skin cancers? More? Less? How much market share might Bavi expect? How much would that gross for Peregrine?
How much might it cost Peregrine to go it alone? What does 'go it alone' mean? Are there distribution companies that would handle the entire process? What does advertising cost for a new cancer fighting drug? Is it targeted to physicians? Patients? Medicare? Insurance companies?
There are many real questions effecting the success or failure of Peregrine. Too bad we focus so much time on side issues. We all know what they are.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
itsabouttime, I certainly hope you are right. The recent news about authorized shares and Opdivo in 2nd Line NSCLC doesn't seem all that threatening to me.
We'll see.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
If I was an orchestrated attacker, this is exactly the kind of thing I would say. LOL, indeed.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
geocappy1, I agree there is a concerted effort here to discourage ownership of PPHM shares. Frankly, I don't know that it has any effect on the share price.
I agree that we are rapidly nearing the point shere everyone will know if Bavi is the real commercial deal we think it is.
Meanwhile, Bavi continues to run through the veins of hundreds of human patients. I know we all hope it gives them some relief in their difficult battles with cancer.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Bavi and radiation, Bavi and chemo, Bavi and immuno.
Bavi and melanoma. Bavi and lung cancer. Bavi and breast cancer.
Bavi, bavi, bavi, bavi, bavi and more bavi.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Bigbro1, the important thing is we have assessed Peregrine management's progress in moving Bavi to commercialization without more dilution than necessary. We like what we see.
We have judged Peregrine's readiness to spend money on Memorial Sloan Kettering's evaluation of Bavituximab as a huge positive signal.
We have judged AstraZeneca's interest in joint testing with Bavituximab as a huge positive signal.
We have judged Peregrine's success in moving the pivotal, Phase III NSCLC trial to full enrolment on schedule for Dec. 31, 2015 as a huge positive signal.
Other people may focus on other things. I'm sure we believe we are focused on more important things.
The fact that the share price shows more fear than greed tells me very little about Peregrine's future IMO. Just a good talking point for some.
We will soon know who is right. One group will make a lot of money; the other group won't. I like our odds.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Bavi continues in the veins of hundreds of human patients. We certainly hope they are benefiting from the treatment. If they are, longs will make a lot of money. Not enough to buy a tropical island, but maybe enough to relocate there and live the rest of our lives in luxury.
Don't sell out for pennies when Peregrine is closer than ever to achieving commercial success. Just my opinion.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
horselover45, never underestimate the negative sentiment.
See how much mileage they get out of the authorization of shares. You'd think they already sold them.
Maybe Peregrine has no intention of selling them. Maybe once Bavituximab is approved, they will include a share of PPHM in each box of Bavituximab sold. You know, like baseball cards.
A little humor during a very not funny SP slide. I still see FDA approval and significant financial success for Bavi and Peregrine. The signs pointing toward such success are numerous. I don't see how share authorization offsets these positives. Potential dilution is not dilution.
GLTA, Especially the Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Some things about Peregrine are debatable. Some things are not:
1. Peregrine management has been pushing Bavituximab toward commercialization as hard as their, i.e. our, resources permit for years.
2. They managed to save the 2nd Line NSCLC trial despite the major screw up by CSM.
3. They managed to get Phase III trial approval and fast track status for Bavi from the FDA.
4. They have launched a worldwide 160 site Phase III trial. A trial "on track" to complete about 600 patient enrollment this year. Management has told us they expect early look-ins at the data mid-2016 and unblinding of the data by year end 2016.
5. Their confidence in Bavi has prompted them to have it evaluated by Memorial Sloan Kettering.
6. BMY and AstraZeneca are interested in how Bavi interacts with their immune-oncology drugs.
7. Peregrine has managed to fund this process for years. It is dilutive but at least they have managed it without entering into the death spiral pipeline financing I have seen elsewhere.
8. Their Avid arm continues to grow capacity, revenues and profits.
Does the above guarantee success? No. Does it look promising? I like it. I like that the moment of truth is coming in months. The Sunrise trial could prove Bavi's worth or lack of same by mid-2016. At any time less rigorous ongoing trials in other cancers might prompt a risk taking BP to gobble up Peregrine.
One other point of interest, in view of the very advanced development stage Bavituximab has reached, the highly negative opinion we see at this time is puzzling. Why? Don't know. Personally, I like the buy low, sell high explanation is involved.
We will soon see.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Welcome newcomer. As a shareholder since the dark ages, I can assure your Peregrine will make its shareholders rich some time between Monday and August 1, 2016.
Happy now?
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Sell now, buy back later? Might work, might not. Timing the market is considered too difficult for professional money managers. How much more difficult do you think it is to time Peregrine' shares?
What we do know is that Peregrine's Bavituximab is closer to establishing it's value than it was last year or five years ago. Whether that value is a lot or a little will be clear in days to months.
It is probably true that the wait is months. The Sunrise first or second look-ins around mid-2016 will provide huge data points.
The problem with waiting for that is a BP may decide to force the issue before definitive data comes in. No way to know how likely this is. The Bavi preclinical case for a BP buy is already established. The early clinical data of Bavi and the SOC is very promising. The early phase bavi-yervoy trial is well along. The MSK research has just started; no idea how fast that might proceed.
Conclusion, you might sell and put your money in a money market at sub 1 percent, and buy in when the you like. Or you can hold on or add assuring yourself of a seat on the plane if it should take off ahead of schedule.
Exciting times.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
pvl, when the spring comes, Peregrine may no longer exist as an independent company. A buyout could come any day.
No law I'm aware of requires potential acquiring companies to wait for the Sunrise trial to conclude or even reach the first look-in.
Perhaps the little Bavi-yervoy trial will trigger such a deal. Any of number of things could move a buyer to act before events push the sale price higher. If Abbvie liked the 2012 Peregrine to partner, why wouldn't a BP like to do a deal with the 2015 Peregrine even more?
Funny how your crystal ball never includes positive possibilities for Peregrine. Maybe you should have it polished.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Bidrite, so you are suggesting that Peregrine management has skill in shareholder relations. The enormity of that error is shocking.
As a long-term shareholder, I know beyond any doubt that Peregrine is one of the least active and least successful molders of public and shareholder opinions I have ever seen or heard of. If they had even a modicum of skill in this area, the share price would be well above the current level.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Peregrine is in a stronger position than ever. Speaking as one who has owned shares since the Techniclone days, this is obvious.
Bavituximab has potential market value in the billions. No prior Peregrine program was this valuable.
Bavituximab is more than half way though a Phase III trial in a billion dollar indication - lung cancer.
Bavituximab is in the hands of the premier cancer research institute in the world - Memorial Sloan Kettering.
AstraZeneca is drinking our brand of kool ade. Helping fund a trial of Bavi and one of their drugs.
And on and on.
The disconnect with the share price will be resolved in the next few months. What will trigger the resolution? Can't say. Several possibilities.
Hang in there longs. Our day is coming. Finally.
You know how we can be sure? The bashers are here in unprecedented numbers with endless repetitive posts.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Wook, thanks for obliterating this offering from a login which bears an uncanny similarity to mine. Conincidence? I think not.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
silattore, dilution is what finances companies like Peregrine. Your answer is less than compelling. Dilution by selling shares or dilution by selling ownership to a partner. Same same.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
I can't see why any long who knows the Bavi story would consider selling at this time, unless they need the cash for groceries or the moment of truth is just too scary.
It is scary. While Peregrine has not bet the entire company on Sunrise, we shareholders know what the share price will do if the news isn't great. Fortunately, I believe we have solid reason to be very optimistic.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Hypi, the joke may not be PPHM. It may be on the folks who keep their eyes on the rear view mirrors looking at what Peregrine was like in the past. If you look out the windshield, you can see something completely different, the Sunrise.
I know you remember Abbvie was close to partnering with Peregrine in 2012. Back then Bavi's mechanism of action as an immune-therapy was not known. The BP push into immune-oncology was barely starting. Now there is budding evidence that Bavi is an ideal partner of the "down stream" immune-therapies the BPs are rushing into. If Abbvie didn't think Peregrine had a joke in Bavi then, how much more serious is Peregrine and its Bavi viewed now by those who actually know what is happening?
While the Bavi-BP immunotherapy connection is just starting, the pivotal, Phase III Sunrise trial will finish enrollment in a few months. The survival data will be available mid-2016.
If Peregrine hits the daily double with Sunrise and with just one of the BP's new immune-oncology drugs, we longs may be laughing all the way to the bank. My kind of joke.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
JCNJ, I understand your point of view. Unfortunately, Peregrine management has never been forthcoming with details of their business plan. Annoying.
I understanding the bitching at BOD and management compensation, but if they make me a huge profit on my PPHM shares I won't mind if they overpaid themselves somewhat in the process.
I know the Sunrise news is about six months away. I hope the other irons in the fire can generate some share price action well before that time. If so, the authorized shares and BOD compensation fussing will die down.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Additional share authorizing? I can see a limited number of reasons for management wanting this authority:
1. They expect a large ramp up in company size to commercialize Bavituximab. Could they actually plan to build their own distribution system? Don't know. If they do plan this expansion, I like to think the cost benefit analysis is telling them shareholders would benefit.
2. They expect a partnering deal will involve the partner acquiring a big chunk of PPHM shares. Don't know how likely this is. However, I like this kind of dilution if the deal is a good one.
3. Last and worst. Planning for a Sunrise flop. If this occurs, I will be the first one trying to liquidate my investment. I like to think this is very improbable. If I were on the BOD, I would want this option to fund Peregrine until they could get Plan C or is it Plan D(could be Plan E) going.
So, in any event I don't see how this dilution would be a problem for me.
GLTA, Especially Those Long Lived Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
PVL, as Ronald Reagan used to say, "There you go again." I do not agree this year is dead.
As I noted many times before in this forum, "If Abbvie was ready to partner in 2012 before the Phase II NSCLC trial results came out, how much more attractive a partner is Peregrine now. See the following:
1. The Phase III trial is well past the half way point. Steve King suggests mid 2016 for the second Sunrise look-in. At that point we are no longer looking at enrollment data or safety, we should see efficacy data.
2. Research has since established the MOA of Bavituximab in numerous studies, some of them published in bio journals.
3. AstraZeneca is jointly researching Bavi with its immune drugs.
4. A Bavi-Yervoy trial running.
5. A Bavi-opdivo trial launching soon.
6. A Bavi trial in HER-2 negative breast cancer launching soon.
ETC.
We could see a lucrative partnership PR Monday. This year may yet have a lot of life left in it.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
mmignot, I wonder what the forum's Sunrise Simulators made of King's guidance on the first and second look-ins.
Did it give them any inkling how the survival times will shake out between the Bavi and non-Bavi arms?
I guess we'll see next year.
GLTA, Especially the Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
IFU, tell us how you really feel about Peregrine. Don't sugar coat it. LOL indeed.
You are a wonderful debater. Kudos to you.
However, I like the odds as I assess them that my substantial investment in Peregrine will yield a rich profit. That profit will come if Peregrine's revolutionary Bavituximab makes the grade in the Sunrise trial.
That result will not be debatable.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
pvl, if you like the company, why not just buy at the disgustingly low share prices?
Of course, if you don't like the company, why do you care about the share price?
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
IFU, you make Peregrine sound like a pyramid scheme. If so, why do they need all those lab studies and clinical trials?
Everyone who know anything about the drug development business knows it is a lengthy and expensive proposition. Everyone knows many, if not most, drug development programs come to nothing.
At this point Peregrine has no debt, 60 million in the bank, a profitable little business in Avid, and Bavituximab.
In case you missed it, Bavituximab is approximately 2/3 through Phase III trials.
Oh, and maybe you missed the research collaborations announced recently with the world famous Memorial Sloan Kettering institute.
Or perhaps, you missed the Astrozeneca-Peregrine joint trial featuring Bavituximab.
Complaining about the dilution that has financed the process that has brought us to this point seems odd.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Relax longs. We are almost there. If we have been right about Bavi, we will finally start making real money. Might happen any day. If it's next year, that's OK too.
It is the traders we should feel sorry for. They have been riding poor PPHM up and down making nice little profits for years. Their time will soon be over.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Let me reply. Dilution finances progress. If you want progress, you pay for it. Simple, isn't it? Next.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
vanessapu, Bavi can make this company billions. If it does, the share price surge will make us plenty of money. Enough to make many of us rich. If the people who produced our wealth earn a nice paycheck in the process, that works for me.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Couch, you are so right. The story lines some push to explain the lousy share price are amazing. You explain it perfectly:
vanessapu, employee salaries and BOD compensation have no relationship with Bavi success, unless they're too low. Just not relevant.
As seen elsewhere, NEXT.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul
Peregrine is finally closing in on FDA approval of a product that could treat thousands or is it millions of cancer patients
So, on the one hand we have potentially huge financial success, and on the other hand we have:
"The BOD makes too much money".
"The company sells to many share ATM."
The Sunrise patients are living too long turning our investment into "dead money" until next year maybe.
I like the long side of this argument.
GLTA, Especially Bavi-arm Sunrise Patients,
Paul