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Kyrie-my last post says what I am doing-that's a mortal lock,
If there was ever any doubt in my mind, now there is none.
Unless there is some indication that they have the votes, I sure as heck am not going to gamble and tender(even though I think the deal will go through this time around) and will sell every last share by the deadline even if it means taking a few cents less.
On the other hand, perhaps I should consider what Bogus says with his 600 billion dollar conservative valuation of the company in short order-after all Father, I mean Booger, knows best.
ps Obviously I agree with you 100% on what you said.
This was just posted at the other site and contains the gist of a conversation between him and Ted Myles.
Draw your own conclusions if any-I agree with him and Kirk for sure on this.
Hi All,
Just had a thirty minute call with Ted. He called me back! Basically said Ocata will be a $2.00 stock if Astellas walks away and we all need to tender. I have to run I'm late for a meeting but here is his phone #508-837-5277 Feel free to call him. Togra
ps I agree with him.
As a poster for ten years and now a moderator, imo one has a right to speculate and offer an opinion about anything they wish to re: this stock as long as they stay witin the rules.
The other side of the coin is that others reserve the right to point out with documentation how speculation has worked out histrically citing both the speculation in question and the ultimate outcome of such event.
I can cite numerous instances where speculation and gossip turned out to be 100% false whereas there were very few where the prediction/speculation came to pass.
Many people come to this forum looking for information.
Thus if an opinion and/or speculation is offered about the company, imo it is well within the rights of someone else to point out the historical track records of previous speculation and predictions.
Thats all well and good, but again you are missing the entire point here-it was alleged here a while back that GE's building a plant in Boston area near Ocata implied that a merger was likely because of the proximity.
Kirk said it then and will I say it now and especially since the stem cell dept.is going to Toronto-it was/is just unfounded speculation and nonsense with no basis, and it has been borne out by the move to Toronto unless GE and Ocata can be teleported next to one another somehow and ther one in a zillion chance happens that they do merge.lol
We have seen this kind of wild speculation and gossip too many times to count over the last few years with this different matters with this company, none of which has ever come true, and this is just the latest example.
lol
Let's not forget also that Mario is a very successful investor as we all know.
He got there by making good sound investment decisions.
If he had gambled on too many speculative and unproven companies over the years like Ocata, let's just say that he would failed badly and would most likely would be referred to as Mario Ga"Belliup." lol
And if one letter wasn't enough to Mario, Bogus the Booger from the other forum has sent a second letter to him.
If I was Mario, I would think this guy is desperate and a wacko and especially since he has written similar letters to every BP and governmnent on the face of the earth IMPLORING them to buy Ocata with ZERO positive responses otherwise you would have heard about it-some folks just don't get it and don't know when to quit!:
2nd Open Letter to Mario Gabelli
Mr. Gabelli,
I hope my earlier letter reached your desk as Ocata Therapeutics IMO has become a very interesting play for you and your team.
What may have begun as a simple arbitrage play has IMO turned into you sitting in the driver's seat.
What I am referring to is I don't believe Astellas had you on their radar screen when they began the tender offer. They thought Ocata was just a bunch of retail investors that would quietly roll over with this tender offer.
They most likely thought this deal would have closed after the first tender period and could announce their incredible acquisition at the Jan 12 health conference yesterday where they featured Ocata on 3 of their 16 slides and they don't even own it yet!
Now the two parties (Astellas vs Retail) sit nearly tied in the share count 36% each with you, Gary Aronson and a slew of your institutional friends sitting with 5-30% of the outstanding shares.
So here is the power play. 62K would be your return if you are in it as an arbitrage play but if you, Gary and the institutions sit tight, acquire and control 1-4M more shares then IMO you get to tell Astellas your tender price which I'm sure will be north of 8.50. This truly could be the easiest $12m-24M in 60 days work you will every make as IMO Astellas isn't going to walk after featuring Ocata in their industry presentation.
Yes, the gamble is you demand say another $4-6 share to the current tender offer and Astellas walks then you let the price float back down and begin to scoop up as many shares as you can until you have controlling interest of the company when combined with what retail holds.
Now you can insert your own board and in 4-5 years once the RPE therapy is approved you can almost name your price and sell it to BP and along the way sell off or partner Ocata's MSC or blood science if you wish.
Remember that AMD/SMD currently has 30M people afflicted just in the US and Europe and there is no real treatment or cure. The data from the Lancet suggests that the therapy is safe after 3-4 years and that the majority of patients treated saw at least 3 lines of visual acuity improvement which is HUGE and life changing to someone going blind.
Also as I'm sure you know, even if only 1/2 percent of the market is treated annually and Ocata's revenue piece of the treatment cost is around 20K with an estimated 60-70% gross margin, you can see the interesting EDIT and multiple on this opportunity and this is only one therapy!
So again three plays here:
Good - An Arbitrage play and you walk with around 62K
Better - You force a higher bid from Astellas and walk with millions after 60 days
Great - You believe in Dr. Lanza's science and Ocata is extremely undervalued and take a controlling position in the company and package the company in 4-5 years to BP for billions.
By the way I'm sure you saw where GE is now moving to Boston where their USA Life Science headquarters are also located and they are looking to partner and help develop a regenerative medicine cell manufacturing center in Canada so clearly this technology is on the move as GE has great vision.
Cells are the future "widgets" of the world where thousands will be injected into a single patient for treatment and he who controls these "new widgets" stands to make a lot of money down the road. And of course we know Ocata today controls nearly 150 patents and pending patents which control deriving almost all cell types from a blastomere and IPSC.
I will say it again, at 72 you have done many incredible things and with Ocata you are sitting in the driver's seat with a good, better or great opportunity before you and I can assure you that thousands of retail investors are hoping and cheering you choose great!
A legacy where you are known as one of the all time best value investors in pretty good but being known as the man who helped bring about a game changing science that helped billions would be priceless!
I thank you and your team for recognizing Ocata and hope you will go "all in" and go for Great as you only live once and there is no greater gift than helping your fellow man.
Kind Regards,
BF
Alas-GE takes its stem cell act to Toronto:
http://www.genengnews.com/gen-news-highlights/ge-healthcare-joins-canadian-partners-in-building-cell-technologies-center/81252234/
All I can say is that with the "haircut" the general market has taken so far, that $8.50 bid has really provided a nice cushion, softened the blow and should give plenty of firing power for those who sell their shares into the open market and hopefully for those who tender.
I am sorry the general market is down of course, but imo it comes at a great time with resepect to this juncture with ocata(assuming that one can pick the bottom of the general market of course. lol).
Conversely it can be questioned that with the uplisting why no one else really entered the fray other than Astellas over that time frame.
Thank you and to The Cracker-that helps a lot.
Thanks-I agree with you and especially the last paragraph.
Kudos on moving your money elsewhere -it has drawn my attention thats for sure.
Congratulations to all on a big day here!
Question-I will have a ton of freed up money when I sell my remaining shares of another stock next week into the open market, which is going to be taken over soon.
I am going to do some dd on this stock, but for anyone who follows this stock closely, in your opinion, would it be wise to just nibble now and/or wait for a pullback?
Just curious what you folks think?
Thanks
I agree with all of this, and that the collapse of the market for the reasons you stated makes it a lot more likely that they will sell or tender no matter what they say on a message board.
If the total collapse of the market continues and for some reason this tender doesn't go through, Astellas walks away and no else immediately emerges to offer another bid, good luck to anyone still holding because imo they are going to need it; there will be a panic leading to a collapse of the stock price and God knows when and if ever, it will recover.
Could Joe Biden be the next rumored person at the other site to buy Ocata if the present deal falls through and/or they are wrong about Mario's true motives? lol
To play Devils Advocate, couldn't that possibly tie up one's investment in Ocata in the court for many months until a decison is rendered, meaning that there could be a lot of lost opportunity with other possible investments?
No thanks as far as I am concerned if I understand this correctly.
Seriously with the overall market getting clobbered today, how can anyone make anything out of ANY stock being down?
No offense but to do so is just plain wishful thinking.
Here is something which was posted earlier today at the other forum-draw your own conclusions as to what it is worth:
Gary Aronson asked me to post this for him.
We contacted over 50 potential bidders. We received over 20 outright NO’s. The rest are indeterminate. If we hear from any and can let you know, I will. We were treated courteously and professionally by almost every single potential bidder that we approached.
One problem that we encountered is that Big Pharma companies virtually always deal with eager Managements, not dissident shareholders. Another was our lack of any confidential data of any sort.
In my experience, Big Pharma investors are actually quite risk-averse. They would much rather pay billions for a company with compelling advanced clinical data, than hundreds of millions for an earlier-stage company. (Wasn’t this exactly why Ocata raised the $30 Million?) Its safer for their own jobs.
The timing close to the Holidays was also a problem, because many at most bidders don't work then (except maybe to finish up an old deal). Any responders likely would have contacted Ocata’s Management, to an uncertain response. We may never know if there were additional bidders or not.
Do I think this deal is underpriced? YES! Ocata Management’s previous presentations evidenced how valuable the Company was, but now, in the form of their recommendations and the much lower Ocata Projections of its 14D-9, a completely different valuation is being proffered. Do I think this stinks? Yes, I think it stinks to high heaven.
Do I think the Astellas deal should be stopped or other shareholders should refuse to tender? I have not sued to stop the deal and I am NOT willing to recommend anything to anybody else on this. The stock market seems to me to be collapsing, with weakness in EU, Japan and China and Janet Yellen raising interest rates. I think a Worldwide Crash is imminent and investors might reasonably take whatever cash they can get now, especially if they need it to survive. I do not know if the Gabelli Fund purchases are particularly meaningful, as, based on their public information, these funds might be looking to get just the difference between e.g., $8.43 and $8.50 in a short time.
At this point, I have not decided whether I will tender and/or take legal action. I am looking into this further. In any event, I cannot claim to anyone else that I have any other bidders at this time nor do I have any reasonable expectation that new bidders will step forward within the next 8 days. I encourage each person to think for himself or herself, check with his or her own advisors and act as seems best for his or her own interest.
Thank you for your support and good luck!
Best wishes,
Gary Aronson
Lets just say that if you used what you just stated and line of reasoning alone in any objectively and fairly judged debate to show that one could make an inference from it, that it meant that a merger or jv with Ocata was imminent, imo you wouldn't do very well, and thats being kind.
If Mario is a MULTI billionaire, then I guess by inference then a regular old billionaire must have less than a billion dollars:
http://www.forbes.com/profile/mario-gabelli/
Also, apparently Mario didn't hide under his school desk during air raid drills because he figured it wouldn't do any good-smart thinking on his part.
It is sort of the same thing with the preflight ritual of fastening your seat belt and how to use oxygen masks in case your plane goes down, like it is going to make a difference in whether you live or not-its called common sense, the same kind of common sense which unfortunately is not used in assessing the real value of Ocata as it stands today and not using some delusionary, fantasy projections as Bogey does that the company is or shortly going to be worth 600 billion dollars.
You missed the entire point-what you posted has ZERO to do with what I said.
The entire point as it pertains to Ocata and GE is that ZERO inference can be made re:any kind of merger or takeover by proximty only.
My analogy about a renowned person coming to one's town to speak would be something akin to this:
Joe says to Frank(both of whom are from Lee, a small town in the boondocks Western Mass.)-"Did you hear that David Ortiz is going to speak at a charity event next week in Lee?"
Frank says-"Wow-he is coming all the way out here to speak?
Why would he come all the way out here if he was not going to move here in the near future after he retires? I am excited!"
Get the picture as it applies to GE and Ocata being neighbors and thus meaning a certain takeover and merger? lol
The point has nothing to do with whether GE is into stem cells or not.
It is that some are trying to draw a wild and unfounded conclusion from above that it is all related to Ocata.
If a noteworthy person makes a speaking engagement in one's city, should we conclude that this person only made the speaking engagement because he or she was thinking of moving to that city and wanted to spend a day or two there to see what life was like there?
Lets just say using past failed results as the criterion, I sure as heck wouldn't want any attorney representing me in any matter using the same flawed, faulty illogical, irrelevant and specious reasoning of some folks with Ocata to draw conclusions and to try to plead/rest my case to a judge and jury.
Obviously imo Captain Kirk is spot on here in what he says also in this regard.
I can't remember the details but waasn't there some gossip a while back that GE was going to join forces with Ocata because there was a rumor that GE was going to set up an office within 10 miles of Ocata Headquarters or that PW and some VIP happened to both be seen in Boston on the same day or something along those lines? lol
One would be an even richer guy if one invested a dime for each time the failed logic, reasoning and failed optimistic predictions abut the compnay and stock price stated over the last ten years didn't come true-it cuts both ways.
There are a lot of ifs and assumptions in your logic, such as whether the Phase Two tests will be successful and meet what I am sure are very strict requirements set by the FDA for a variety of reasons, some of which imo include pressure by other BP Companies to make it difficult for Ocata.
Along the same lines who is to say that Ocata has even enough money to get far enough long to continue what I am sure will be a time consuming and expensive venture?
Also you say it is about risk reward ratio from the investor's point of view.
From my point of view what matters is how BP and not the shareholder perceives the risk reward ratio, and judging by the fact that Astella has offered the only legitimate after many months of this company being shipped around, I would conclude that BP in the US has deemed this ratio not all that good or to be more precise, that the odds are not in favor of their getting involved at least at $8.50.
Lets just say then that if Astellas was an American company for reasons stated, that imo they may every well have not offered $8.50 just as no other American BP company did.
I don't claim to have all of the answers as to all of the reasons this deal took place besides the stated ones.
All I now is that in the manner in which I think and playing Devils Advocate, is that if PW really is the self serving, greedy jerk we think he is woth total disdain for shareholders, it just seems to me that he wouldn't have advised the BOD to take the $8.50 if in fact he thought all things considered that he could get more in the near future.
This is why I believe that anything he has hidden from shareholders is negative rather than positive, that the $8.50 was the best choice for HIM and thus even though it was not a consideration of his, was also the best for shareholders.
Did you ever consider that perhaps the testing criterion, rigamorole and overall expenses are much less in Japan than in US and that is why Astellas made the bid whereas other US companies shied away?
I despised PW shortly after he took office for lots of reasons most of which was because of what I deemed to be his self serving modus operandi and stated so in this Forum while most praised the man.
That said, imo a lot of what is being tossed around now claiming to know for sure the actual reasons and circumstances why he advised the BOD to sell the company to Astellas is hearsay/speculation/gossip only and/or would be regarded as circumstanial evidence at best in any court of law.
I happen to think that a lot of what he didn't disclose about the company's chances was negative rather than positive as many believe-obviously this is speculation only but just as valid as any other opinions of the matter.
For me all that matters is whether the tender offer goes through at all.
I will worry about the SA Article and any other noise only if it does not, although most likely I will sell all of my remaining shares into the open market by the deadline date if there is no increased bid by that time.
I will also put in a gtc to buy some stock at around $4 when I sell the stock in case there is an immediate selloff if the tender fails amd Astellas walks away.
What can I say-facts and the truth combined with some great humor to boot.
I would love to read but as usual don't expect to see any posts which can counter what you have stated.
I wonder if Mario has amassed the money he has over the years by investing in companies which by their own admission will not have a marketable product to offer for a number of years, and as stated in the SEC filings, maybe NEVER and which face all kind of huge financial and other obstacles in front of them to even get there in that position. lol
Imo if left to fend on its own, Ocata will see $3.40 a share long before it sees if ever $34 a share.
Even if there were those so called angry shareholders, I regard all of them as a bunch of spoiled/whiny cry babies who can't accept the realities of the investing world and/or who refuse to accept that every investment they make isn't going to be successful.
Perhaps these folks should put their money in a savings bank or just stuff it in their mattresses if they cannot accept risks involved with their investments.
The stock has been all over the place during the time I owned it and the reverse split must be considered.
What I stated is accurate, and I feel very fortunate to come out of this with a profit rather than a hefty loss if no offer had been made.
Hopefully you are right.
Imo the time to trade and accumulate this stock was when it was in the 3's and 4's rather than now.
That is how I brought my average down to a little over $6.
While I happen to believe that Wotton's motives in this company have always been self serving and stated so early on, at this juncture imo that is immaterial.
What does matter now is the fact that he and the BOD signed off on the present deal.
If my premise is correct that he is self serving and/or to go further, if he and/or the BOD are "evil," then it makes even less sense that they would end things now if they really felt that the odds were in their favor to go at this alone moving forward or to wait for a jv or another suitor.
Don't forget early in 2015 PW postponed his promise of having a jv for six months because he didn't have one by the time he has promised one earlier.
The big problem here and as I have said before is that those who are reducing what he and the BOD to selling out is that these folks do not know what PW and the BOD re: the problems and probabilities of overcoming them moving forward, and are thus looking at the matter from a different perspective without all of the relevant facts needed to see how PW and company are viewing it.
Thus the way I see it and the manner in which Ocata sees it is that $8.50 is the best they could do and that it would be wise to take it rather than subject themselves to the real risks, dangers and vagaries of the market moving forward.
Yes I can understand why some investors consider all of this to be unfair and in many cases because they have either lost money and/or been invested for a long time.
However, as much as all of us would like our investments to turn out to be profitable and/or have a Hollywod Ending, sadly that is not how the market and for that matter how life operates.
If folks shareholders believe that they are in a better position than Wotton and the BOD to evaluate the company's's worth, then fine, they have the right not to tender their shares and take their chances;obviously I am not of that mindset for reasons stated.
$100 a share for Ocata is coming soon to a portfolio near you, folks because the White Knight MARIO has arrived-be a part of this game changing event and invest every last cent you have and margin to the max to buy this stock at the current steal price of a lifetime!!! lol