I agree with all of this, and that the collapse of the market for the reasons you stated makes it a lot more likely that they will sell or tender no matter what they say on a message board. If the total collapse of the market continues and for some reason this tender doesn't go through, Astellas walks away and no else immediately emerges to offer another bid, good luck to anyone still holding because imo they are going to need it; there will be a panic leading to a collapse of the stock price and God knows when and if ever, it will recover.
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