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RAF
I agree it is a fun thing for the board and thank you for it ... it certainly entertained me in covid lockdown ...but it is also thought provoking — we each undertake our own form of considerations of events ahead facing Amarin
Hell there is no exact science in this and so often the so called professional analysts are way off the mark in any event ...but we are all entitled to reach our own conclusions
Alm
RAF - apologies my thoughtless mistake !
So in effect the board view collectively is a hope for a 25 dollar buy out before end of 2021
To achieve anything close to that that imo the SP has to move up in 10-15 range over the next 6 /9 months through reaction to positives events for the company - eu ?China?covid ?us market not as impacted?change of institutional view of co? -list no doubt includes more
If we get to 15 on these we will be doing well
The less optimistic view of BO price -say 15- maybe easier to contemplate .... but would the board sell for 15?
They might for 20/25 but I suspect 15 would not satisfy them
You have created an interesting exercise for us all to think through this year ahead and realistically consider what might develop
I predicted a 22 BO -I confess on reflection an overly ambitious aspiration
I for one would be delighted to see it at 15 by the year end - BO or not - sure needs many things to go our way
Thank you for your efforts on the board
Alm
RAF
If the lowest 5 and highest 5 are adjusted out what do you arrive at for average and median ? Alm
BO at 22 dollars
Alm
Tasty is back
Much missed - with or without your balls
Alm
Rose.... no ... your kidding me !!
Hope we have fun with this !! We need something to smile about
Alm
Invest
You will be at the back of a very long cue....
It’s very rare that anyone has been able to predict with any degree of precision when a volcano will erupt ....we have to admire FFS ... in this inexact science he is at least is brave enough to try and entertains us all in the process
May 2021 prove him Devine !!
Why not a Christmas survey .??? .... predicting the exact date of buyout ( volcanic eruption) in 2021
I will start ...
- 1st April 2021
Happy Christmas and a great New Year to all - I will have to settle for a longer delay to see my daughter and grandchildren in Florida and be content to ride out the new mutation of covid here in the UK...the world has seemingly decided that we can no longer travel the world ! ... the British Empire is but a shadow of its former self
Alm
Mez.... are feely goods better than feely bads?
8 is a great asset to this board as is Ffs - as are you ... room for many different viewpoints ... we need more on topic contributions and a great deal less angst between posters ... direct that where it’s due ...at Hikma / Du / the appalling USA patent system Et al ... there are plenty of really justifiable targets Alm
FFS/8
we need both of you to continue to contribute - each has their own view and each of us can assess the value to attribute to such views
FFS - very noble of you to make the peace
8 will I am sure appreciate it
Hell we all have the same aspirations here - we need all stick together -United we conquer divided we fall
Alm
JL- great to see your posting ...and we all hope for many many more ....looks like everything you predicted about V MOA will be proved true
We just need the medical world out there to have your wisdom and see this drugs true value for patients
ALM
Folk are just beginning to realise ....
This ain’t fish oil
This ain’t mineral oil
This is a multi usage wonder drug
That USA market ain’t lost
That Europe and Row is opening up as a market
That this drug will sell for a great many years to come
That this drug can be sold in billions of annual revenue
That this company will be bought out
Could be why it’s going up -and maybe just why it will keep going up
Alm
8 - I am sure all on this board - all -greatly appreciate your valuable insight and informed view ... the board is a broad church - we are all adults that read it and all need take sometimes a large pinch of salt to assess the value we place on certain postings ... sometimes the posting drift way off topic
It is best is not to let things wash over sometimes ?? Alm
8 - I am sure all on this board - all -greatly appreciate your valuable insight and informed view ... the board is a broad church - we are all adults that read it and all need take sometimes a large pinch of salt to assess the value we place on certain postings ... sometimes the posting drift way off topic
It is best is not to let things wash over sometimes ?? Alm
Louie...... your constantly displayed wonderful good humour is a delight for us all to enjoy .... and if anyone on this board deserves spectacular it is undoubtedly you
But we all won’t mind sharing spectacular with you ......
I have no inside information or indeed overly informed view but I see an Amarin spectacular in 2021 .....
Alm
Jasberg
We have to recognise that there are any number of BP out there who can assess the potential - same as we do - as to V- and it is a racing certainty that for the right price ( ie dirt cheap) the company could be sold tomorrow
Amarin -stating the obvious - has a value to every BP -let’s just say Pfizer offered JT a figure tomorrow for what equates to 8 dollars a share ....
Do we think Pfizer would pay 8 dollars tomorrow - you bet they would .... but would The board accept that ? Would we shareholders be happy ?
But if Pfizer offered 20 dollars per share ?? What would happen then ??
You can bet there will have been discussions ....
You can bet there will be more discussions
We can all play around with what BP values Amarin at .. I am sure as shareholders we see this company as worth way more than 5 dollars if it were bought out
It will happen ...
Alm
Retired....
unless the company is bought the crucial price mover over time is sales/profit of V ... if this is a GIA company there will always be a hold back until we see delivery and growth as to sales and profit
But .......Someone else might buy that opportunity on the basis they believe they can grow sales and profit substantially above those being attained by Amarin
The big events - label from FDA and patent loss have come and gone - nothing much else lies ahead which will move the needle - unless usage of V opens into new areas
The fight in USA is to keep and grow sales and profit despite patent loss ... sales /profit will develop in Europe and Row over time
It’s a tough call for a small company which has been repeatedly knocked backwards to keep momentum - whether management could have done better historically is now moot .... whether we like JT and the team or not the reality is they are running the show and nothing but a BO will change that
Too many shares being issued to management .... but they run the show ...
So it’s a slow step by step increase in sales and profit that will drive it back up - 3 to 5 years of GIA being well run world wide and growing profits may see 15 - 20 dollars -
On a turnover / profit / company strength / weakness analysis - that’s how the market will value Amarin
15 - 20 in a buyout in 1 to 2 years is the quickest route we can hope for .... big pharma has all the resources to make things happen quicker bigger and cheaper than Amarin can ever muster
The likelihood of a BO however increases significantly if V can be expanded into multiple usage.... BP has resisted thus far ....... but will the opening of new possibilities as to sales of V become irresistible ???- the next several months will see whether this drug operates significantly in other arenas
We need patience .... and a good headwind behind us
Alm
8- I hear what you say ....but the underlying issue here is that from Amarins perspective the company is being significantly and increasingly adversely affected by the continued erosion of its market by Hikma -
The quid pro quo for agreeing such a delay would be for Hikma to have agreed during the agreed period of delay not to continue to market GV or most certainly to not expand its marketing
Whilst Hikma could have made application to dismiss such would of course be resisted and such resistance could have been coupled with an injunction application pending trial
Lawyer common courtesy has to be put aside when the economic heart is being ripped out of the company
I would suggest there must be something more to Amarins agreement to delay
Alm
marjac ... I know the team will do an incredible job - your titanic efforts will fill us with both gratitude and admiration
Let Du see the truth ... if she recognises the truth -you create legal history
You can do it ....
Alm
Marjac... amarin will be well advised to let some weeks run of downward scripts to show that the extent of switching to gv goes way beyond the high trig prescriptions lost to gv in the Du trial - such will demonstrate significant financial loss projections to Amarin and justify an injunction
Conversely as to a bond if injunction granted Hikma can only ever assert a loss equating to in effect profit on 10 percent of V sales - the only market they can sell into -without infringing - such would be small beer compared with the huge benefit of an injunction which could run for years until the trial - the injunctive proceedings can rely on the present state of the law- the Gsk v Teva case is current law
Amarin needs play this very cleverly -many legal ways to skin cats - and in Fish and singer they have very capable strategist lawyers
But I hope you press on with the proceedings in Nevada also - it will raise the whole profile of the injustice caused in Du court - and it may succeed - when financial assistance is required I and many many others will support this action - it may yet be the case that Amarin will themselves pursue this route ... what’s to be lost that isn’t already lost ??
Alm
Marjac....got to be done ...delighted to contribute some cash to support the effort .. and if you want an outside the team lawyer to read through anything delighted you assist
Alm
Biobill...they did ...but did so because the en banc is not a forum (they can say)for a fraud allegation or a fraud on the D.C. court
Alm
HK - suggest you decide ... 8 ... is great ....but not running any litigation here .. nor am I .... but if patent infringement is to be litigated the issue will be that generics don’t want to sell for trigs over 500 they want to sell for cardiovascular market .... and anything that points the court into demonstrating that is their intent will help compel....effectively generics have shot denial of this argument in the foot by part of their own case in the Du hearing
Alm
Covid .... heart conditions .... heart health and inflammatory reductions are becoming a huge issue
Alm
Biobill... if whole court hears this en banc we won’t need the amicus (not that it does not tell it exactly as it is ) the whole court in an end banc would find it impossible not to follow the Graham 4 route and make it clear that the prima facile route is plain wrong - because it reverses burden and devalues secondaries - the FC would have to go this way because if they don’t the Supreme Court would be hearing this on appeal and they would uphold their own Graham precedent
The risk here is there is no en banc because the FC judges will see that as a way out of avoiding dealing with this patent shambles - just as the 3 FC judges did in the Du Dc appeal - they did not want to get into it .... didn’t even read the material and just ducked under dick Dyke who was quite prepared to mouth off and throw his FC weight about just after he had been reversed on his DC decision for which he “did more wrong than he did right” as to his decision
En banc would be a miracle come true ... but it got more likely as a possibility with the GsK / TEVA case where Newman had a chance to dig her teeth into sorting part at least of the patent shambles that is the USA - and every day that passes hope will rise for En banc
Alm
Biobill thanks for pointing this out ... great start .... what about a whole bunch more... not just to a study but to hospitals treating covid patients ...maybe the Bod could personally fund such for publicities sake - what a good news story that would be .... Alm
Biobill-maybe we do it the other way round .... we wait and see what Amarin does if generic launch .... if shareholders think the company is not going about matters in such a way as to protect our interests we take whatever steps (proceedings) we consider necessary - no harm letting BoD know that there is an action group of shareholders who will take such steps and indeed what those steps maybe
Perhaps a formalised shareholder group with common interest should be formed to achieve such
Alm
We need this growth week on week for many weeks months ahead
The key is selling the stuff ... as well as fighting for patent protection....
they need be like dogs with sticks ... xx
LM
Generics motive is clear from this ... and it will be used if needs be against them in future litigation
Alm
HK Why didn’t Amarin just donate a whole bunch of Vascepa to just see if it helped / worked in covid ... it is a harmless drug so no danger to patients
Any positive RWE in covid environment would massively boost demand for V
Alm
HK. Send to singer ... but it would be helpful if the specific “evidence” in the trial could also be quoted .. it will assist focus on any patent infringement litigation
Alm
Teva en banc - they may ask for an en banc ... but will they get one ? Everyone is at pains to point out how hard it is to get an end banc hearing - what actually makes it so certain that Teva will succeed in this
They and all the generics may be stuck with this decision...
That would be just fine !!
Alm
Dan/Marjac
Presumably there would be the issue of establishing when the fraud became apparent which might affect any time limits ?? Alm
Marjac - and do count me In as a contributor - anyway I can
Alm
Marjac - great spirit - stay resolute ... many ways can cats be skinned ... we just need try as many ways as possible ... right is might
Alm
Latest Amicus.... this sets out precisely why the FC should have an en banc ... because patent law is now unclear and uncertain - is it all four Graham factors or is it prima facile then consider the fourth factor to rebut obviousness and that shifts the burden and allows hindsight ?
Patent developers need certainty cost of invention is huge risk must be predictable as to patent protection
It is a shambles that DC and FC cases do not operate under one method of consideration but under two - no one knows which way the wind will blow
This is a very compelling and persuasive Amicus to an en banc hearing .. but also opens up a route if needs be to Scotus - the FC if they fail to address this conflict in effect invite the SC to resolve the mess the F C have allowed to develop
Alm
The
Kiwi
Many thanks reply and appreciate your views as ever ...the amicus was a huge huge long shot the en banc less so .. but still a huge long shot - very unlikely to succeed further ...
there are other litigation routes which will be taken ..which will delay
my gut is that generics will back peddle on this one because of the Teva risk /underdeveloped market/ split 4 ways ..plus Vascepa the 5th way /and possibly generic version from Amarin
USA market will still be there .. but Amarin need to be very smart about how they operate / and make profit asap ASAP — iEurope ROW still very significant future markets
It’s not the dream we had but it’s still worth more than 5 bucks
Each will decide which way to play this or not as case may be ... we wish We had left this behind at 25 !! but it is what it is ..
Good luck and we will keep in touch I am sure
Alm
Kiwi...the possibility of the Marjac Amicus taking hold with CAFC was only a little over zero- and basing investment decision on its rejection/acceptance is rather questionable -the en banc is probably a little higher as to prospect but no one should hold their breath on that ... there remain other opportunities to litigate and Amarin will take them .... delay and litigate delay and litigate ...the generics are in a difficult place following Teva case- it’s no slam dunk that they can rush into ... they may just decide it ain’t worth The risk Europe is a big and long lasting market ahead.... ROW also -there maybe interest in time to come to acquire the company from those better placed to obtain best value
I agree Amarin is not a sexy quick fire option - there are no doubt other more attractive ones ... but for those in it and in no rush 5 dollars sp will be significantly bettered over time
Amarin has worked through some very tough territory previously - the company must work super hard to improve its performance and communication - I guess they have been a little punch drunk but I remain optimistic they will keep this fight going and battle through
Why ? This drug is simply one of the best ground breaking developments in medicine -we must never loose sight of that ...it’s benefits are yet to be fully utilised and fully appreciated
Alm
HK
Seeking alpha published the article
But I consider written in a different way ... this is a story of public appeal. ....
Alm
HK
Can you get this published ? One of our poster did an article about Amarin which was published .... we need to get this fiasco into the public domain
This is a news worthy story to be told
It needs to be kept very simple to gain maximum traction ...
Alm
Marjac and team ... motion denied does not deny us all the immense satisfaction that you guys gave us by saying what was right to be said ...
And motion denied does not mean that what was right to be revealed will not in the fullness of time play its full part in setting aside this monstrosity of an injustice
Alm