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Zero
China groups wanted to 'legitimately' move MLM cash to US accounts some how...
Even more alarming to big cannabis investors..
The harvest results show yields near 1000kg/acre.. anyone with an acre of land can be a millionaire in just one harvest at a sale price of only $1/gram.
At a sale price of just $0.20/gram.. the small cannabis producer is still amongst Canada's upper class generating over $100,000 in income per harvest.
Putting things in perspective, the average Canadian farm is over 600 acres in size with the country having over 150 million acres in total. While the average farm yields between $500 and $5,000 per acre.
Cannabis is way overvalued. The prices we see now are of an illegal product. Industry leaders are way overvalued.
Not the floor. Good luck to all.
Very true, agree. Outdoor grow operations in Canada are much more difficult than in climates where cannabis has apapted to the the ecosystem for thousands of years to the point where the plant naturally thrives without any risk of diseases.
But you are very wrong about high quality Canadian weed only being able to be grown indoors.
Major LPs just finished first outdoor harvests and results are great. Lowest costs are sub 10 cents per gram - including cost of sale, admin, etc. Reported quality is equal to that of the best cannabis grown indoors.
The manufacturing standards for medical cannabis can only be met by indoor grow operations?
No. Canadian companies are already selling outdoor medical cannabis.
The same quality cannabis/extracts can be produced outdoors in far greater quantities at a cheaper cost.
Many of the worlds medical drugs are produced from plants cultivated outdoors. Opium is a prime example - grown in the dirt and sand but processed into a drug at medically approved facilities.
Why do people think cannabis needs to be produced in airlocked facilities nurtured by hazmat suit wearing probers?
8g/day is nearly $15,000/yr at $5/g cost. More money than the average Canadian spends on housing, food, and pretty much everything else.
Cannabis is way overvalued, the industry and government are exploiting the consumer.
The Cannabis price collapse is ever so important to the country and society as a whole. Those needing to consume high volumes for medicinal properties or addiction risk potential debt and poverty at current retail prices.
Glad Veterans are covered. Thanks.
Overvauled. Will collapse further. Good luck to all.
Cultivation licensing restrictions are being lifted swiftly. Cultivation will be more accessible to the thousands.
Agree, the new commodity will be more similar to raw tobacco and not the cigarette monopoly.
For cannabis in Canada, Not everyone will be a millionaire, but apart of a reformed sustainable industry.
Canadian general crop cultivators bring in an average income of $60,000.
Just 500 cannabis plants can produce over $90,000 income at a sale price of $1/gram.
Many will still be willing to cultivate.
This Southern Ontario LP plants over 250,000 plants per year under the sun on a 100 acre plot.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/canada-s-largest-outdoor-cannabis-farm-ready-for-growth-1.4441978
Agree. Aprove domestic license applications quickly, open international markets.
For the people.
"I just got back from Oregon and I visited 22 Dispensaries. 90% of the weed in Oregon is priced around $30-$35 an 1/8th"
Good quality 1/8th in Quebec currently goes for $18-$20 LEGAL.
"The Cannabis Industry and the Beer & Wine Industries are very similar. Consumers are willing to pay $9.99 a 6-pack and beer companies are willing to sell 6-packs at $9.99"
The 6 pack costs over $8 to produce. at $9.99 that's a 20% profit margin.
Canadian cannabis companies are producing at $0.75/gram and selling into the legal market over $5.00/gram (90% gross margin).
"Mature Markets tend to find an equilibrium between what people are willing to pay for a product and what Companies are willing to supply it for"
This explains why beer margins arent as "insane" as cannabis margins. The market is mature, equilbriums have been found.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=151666873
If margins were similar.. $0.75 cannabis would sell at $1.
Cannabis companies around the world are promissing production costs as low as one cent.
"Price is determined by what people are willing to PAY - not what Companies are willing to sell at."
Price is determined by how low companies are able to produce for and how low they are willing to sell at (as a product of oversupply) - not by the greedy corporations who slap on the previous price tag of an illegal black market product.
Once wholesale prices drop below $1/gram.. Billions of dollars in potential revenue will be slashed from the industries market value.
Oversupply shouldn't be feared for not being able to sell the current production capacity but feared for it's influence on the future of collapsing wholesale prices.
Cannabis can be produced for hundreds of times less than Canadian industry leaders. Prices will continue the decline.
I see! Interesting
Canadian Cannabis Tracking System - Supply/Demand - 2019/08
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Data for the month of August 2019 regarding cannabis supply and demand is available on the governments tracking system.
https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/drugs-medication/cannabis/licensed-producers/market-data/supply-demand.html
****
In August, 12,917 kilograms of dried cannabis and 11,705 liters of cannabis oil were sold, while inventories totaled 389,059 kilograms and 155,128 liters.
****
2019/08
Inventory: 389,059 kg / 155,128 L
Sales: 12,917 kg / 11,705 L
****
2019/07
Inventory: 349,834 kg / 160,666 L
Sales: 11,692 kg / 10,266 L
****
2019/06
Inventory: 312,251 kg / 141,181 L
Sales: 9,976 kg / 9,614 L
****
2019/05
Inventory: 262,420 kg / 127,880 L
Sales: 9,524 kg / 9,816 L
****
2019/04
Inventory: 215,327 kg / 119,883 L
Sales: 8,874 kg / 8,202 L
****
2019/03
Inventory: 174,575 kg / 98,055 L
Sales: 7,627 kg / 7,918 L
****
2019/02
Inventory: 143,858 kg / 96,311 L
Sales: 6,670 kg / 7,270 L
****
2019/01
Inventory: 137,802 kg / 83,789 L
Sales: 7,313 kg / 7,914 L
Oversupply will get much worse. Canada will soon be oversupplied by over 1,000,000kg.
Overvalued. Prices will drop much further. This is just the beginning.
No large beverage companies will partner with ACB.
A majority of mass cultivation will go into extraction. it will be cheap.
I believe we will see a new market formed for derivatives of oils; food and beverages. A new market formed by [beverage, food] industry leaders and craft producers.
Wholesale prices are dropping fast.
Quebec already sells legal for $5/gram.
it is well worth it to grow your own. Some could save thousands of dollars every year.
There isn't anything in the world that could save you more money.
Why is this?
Fundamental economic principles reveal the answer.
Simply, when there's money to made.. humanity will take opportunity.
How do you fight competition when anyone CAN produce the same exact product?
The only way.. with price.
Historically the pricing battle continues until the bare minimum.. until.. its not even worth the effort to grow your own.
That will happen to this industry. Just as it was hundreds of years ago.
The prices we see now are the prices of an illegal black market product. This industry, and even governments are severely exploiting the consumer.. just because they can.
Prices will fall under $0.50/gram severely decapitating the value of the global market.
Producers projecting billions of dollars in potential revenue would see sub hundred million.. but when this time comes, the ones projecting the billions.. will be well out of busines from commiting to extremely unsustainable busines models as a product of either stupidity or greed.. maybe a bit of both.
Sustainable future for cannabis: why Europe should prefer SmallCannabis
Global cannabis prohibition is ending, and supply of legal cannabis is increasing.
When the supply of cannabis exceeds demand, its wholesale price is predicted to collapse by at least 90% from current US wholesale prices. What will cannabis’ global supply chain look like after this global cannabis price collapse? As the Hungarian-British physicist Dennis Gabor stated, “The future cannot be predicted, but it can be invented.”
This article calls on Europeans to work with farmers in the developing nations to invent, together, a sustainable future for cannabis, by defining and implementing the standards, institutions, and businesses on which a sustainable global cannabis supply chain can be built. I have established the SmallCannabis Foundation to lead the SmallCannabis Initiative in organising this SmallCannabis global cannabis supply chain.
In the context of SmallCannabis, I define ‘cannabis’ to mean cured, legal flowers of cannabis sativa L. (and any subspecies and hybrids thereof, excluding hemp) and the extracts of said flowers. By helping farmers in the developing nations bring the proposed SmallCannabis global supply chain into existence, Europeans can empower farmers in the developing nations to increase the quality of Europe’s cannabis, reduce its cost, and improve its sustainability.
Why the developing nations?
Because the combination of cannabis’ optimal terroir and low wages is found only in the developing nations.
Optimal terroir
Cannabis originated in Asia, where for thousands of years Asia’s smallholder farmers bred the indica strains of cannabis to thrive in the hot, dry summers of the sub-tropical Himalayan foothills, and the sativa strains to thrive on the tropical mountains of Southeast Asia (notably Thailand). Both locations are on the equatorial side of 35° latitude, which facilitates a long flowering period of nearly equal length days. In this optimal terroir for (non-hemp) cannabis, hundreds of generations of smallholder farmers steadily improved their cannabis strains and production techniques to produce exquisite cannabis. Meanwhile, cannabis spread westward9 to similar terroir in Africa, the Caribbean, and the Americas.
Continental Europe is too far north to have optimal terroir for cannabis, just as it is too far north to have optimal terroir for cocoa, coffee, and vanilla. Nonetheless, one could grow these crops profitably in European greenhouses if the price were high enough.
As Adam Smith pointed out in The Wealth of Nations, “by means of glasses, hotbeds, and hotwalls, very good grapes can be raised in Scotland, and very good wine too can be made of them at about thirty times the expense for which at least equally good can be brought from foreign countries.” The same is true for cannabis.
Continental Europe has vast terroir for hemp, but no optimal terroir for medical cannabis. Therefore, Europe should import medical cannabis – produced to European standards – from the developing nations that have low wages and medical cannabis’ optimal terroir (Source: The Richard Rose Report. Used with permission).
Modern “glasses, hotbeds, and hotwalls” for cannabis are remarkably expensive to build and operate. In Canada, Aurora Cannabis’ Aurora Sky greenhouse cost €100 million and Aphria’s Aphria One greenhouse cost €125 million. Operating them requires simulating cannabis’ optimal terroir: blocking excessive sunlight during too-long summer days, powering electric lights during too-short winter days, and controlling temperature and humidity year round.
On the other hand, in optimal terroir, cannabis’ light source is the sun, its ideal temperature and humidity are the local climate, and its greenhouse is the sky. The cost to ‘build and operate’ the sun, climate, and sky is zero, making it much less expensive to farm cannabis in its optimal terroir than elsewhere (all else being equal).
Low wages
Another important cost-driver is labour. Europe’s wages are among the highest in the world, with seven of the top ten national minimum wages being European (with the other three being Australia, New Zealand, and Canada). These high wages are ill suited to industries that rely primarily on hand labour, such as growing high quality flowers. That’s why much of the world’s cut-flower industry has moved to developing nations such as Colombia, Ecuador, and Kenya, where wages are lower and terroir is optimal for cut flowers.
As price competition among cannabis companies increases, they are likely to seek to reduce their cost of production by expanding their global supply chains into nations that offer optimal terroir for cannabis, low wages, and cannabis legalisation. Indeed, that is already happening, with North American cannabis companies expanding production in Colombia, Jamaica, and Lesotho.
Nations that offer this combination of optimal terroir for cannabis, low wages, and cannabis legalisation are, potentially, ‘SmallCannabis-producing nations.’ The combination of optimal terroir and low wages can dramatically reduce the cost – and hence the price – of cannabis.
To quote Kyle Detwiler, CEO of Northern Swan Holdings, by growing cannabis in a SmallCannabis-producing nation, “We can cut our price 90% and still make money.”
Conclusion: SmallCannabis will be less expensive.
Quality
When cannabis prohibition began, cannabis enthusiasts in ‘the West’ (notably North America, Europe, and Australia) tried to grow the legendary sativa strains that they were prohibited from importing. However, these tropical sativa strains required longer summers than the West’s temperate climates provided. Hybridisation with faster maturing indica strains produced new strains that could mature outdoors in the temperate zone, albeit with a loss of quality.
Since then, Western breeders have produced a dizzying range of cannabis strains, some of which have arguably overcome the loss of quality that resulted from their production focused hybridisations.
Now that cannabis has been relegalised in nations with optimal terroir, the superior old strains should become available again, in all their diversity. We should also expect to enjoy new strains that have been bred from provenance assured old strains solely for quality, rather than being bred to mature in a sub optimal climate or in a police evading basement.
Learning from similar efforts with other crops, the SmallCannabis Initiative can help sustain the diversity of cannabis strains (perhaps by using a model similar to the Cocoa of Excellence Programme) and bring cannabis to the European market efficiently (perhaps by using a model similar to CaféDirect’s). This can give new hope to the communities in the developing nations whose ancestors created the pure old strains from which all modern Western strains were derived. On optimal terroir, earning a living income, farmers in the developing nations can afford to invest the hand labour that is required to produce the highest-quality cannabis.
Conclusion: SmallCannabis will be higher quality.
Sustainability
Although we can reasonably assume that today’s cannabis companies have the best of intentions, we should also be aware that global agricultural supply chains have been implicated in some terrible outcomes, such as:
Cocoa: “Farmers may fall into the debt trap and sell a family member as a slave.”
Coffee: “Nestlé admits slave labour risk on Brazil coffee plantations.”
Vanilla: In Madagascar, the top vanilla exporter, “Nearly one in two children are stunted, meaning they are likely to grow up either physically or mentally disadvantaged.”
These terrible outcomes arose from the interaction of many historical, commercial, and local factors, including ‘boom and bust’ cycles that make famers’ income unpredictable and poverty-induced coping strategies such as deforestation, child and forced labour, and excessive debt.
Cannabis has two unique advantages in avoiding these terrible outcomes. Firstly, legal cannabis is the first entirely new global agricultural supply chain to be built after:
Technological innovations such as the Internet, the smartphone, cloud computing, QR codes, RFID tags, blockchain, and the Sustainable Rice Platform;
Commercial innovations such as Fair Trade, CocoaLife, CaféDirect, the SAI Platform, TechnoServe, the Cocoa of Excellence Programme, and modern impact investing; and
Political innovations such as the Generalised System of Preferences, the Everything but Arms programme, and the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals.
With cannabis, we can combine selected innovations with proven best practices to establish a paperless, digital only sustainable global supply chain that transparently, traceably, and efficiently connects consumers to producers.
Secondly, the rapid spread of legalization, combined with the slow pace of regulatory implementation and the high cost of building cannabis farms in non-optimal terroir, has created a global shortage of legal cannabis. This shortage has kept prices temporarily high. Cannabis farmers in the developing world have a few more years of high margins, which can help fund the development of the SmallCannabis supply chain – but only if we act quickly.
The goals of SmallCannabis should be the goals of sustainability:
People: A living income for everyone in the global cannabis supply chain, without exploiting any worker;
Planet: Improvement to the global environment, without exploiting any local ecology; and
Profits: Market-based solutions that deliver cannabis of appropriate quality for each intended use while meeting all European standards, without exploiting any consumer (with inferior products) or investor (with inferior returns).
Conclusion: SmallCannabis will be more sustainable.
Why Europe?
Because Europe is predicted to become the largest market for cannabis products by 2022. As the largest cannabis buyer, Europe can have the most influence on shaping cannabis’ global supply chain.
For decades, the EU has given tariff reducing trade preference to imports from developing nations through schemes such as the Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP), GSP+, and Everything But Arms (EBA). These schemes have helped developing nations join and benefit from global trade, reducing poverty, enhancing sustainability, and improving social justice.
This article proposes that cannabis be included within those schemes, and specifically to include cannabis produced in the upper middle-income developing nations that have suffered most from the global War on Drugs, such as Mexico, Colombia, Jamaica, and Thailand.
2019/10/09
https://www.healtheuropa.eu/sustainable-future-for-cannabis-why-europe-should-prefer-smallcannabis/93917/
Hard to value what will be worth nothing in years time.
With over $1B in liabilities, hundreds of millions in operating expenses, wholesale pricing collapse, and the rise of global competition.. the current business model is severely flawed and nearly impossible to revert.
In the meantime, hype will fluctuate biased on 'fair valuations'.
If you cancel global factors and ACB could sell full production capacity at $8/gram with current models - there is no problem.
Global marlets must be thoroughly examined to see a clear picture of future direction.
Canadian Cannabis Tracking System - Supply/Demand - 2019/07
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Data for the month of July 2019 regarding cannabis supply and demand is available on the governments tracking system.
https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/drugs-medication/cannabis/licensed-producers/market-data/supply-demand.html
****
In July, 11,387 kilograms of dried cannabis and 9,854 liters of cannabis oil were sold, while inventories totaled 347,171 kilograms and 159,530 liters.
****
2019/07
Inventory: 347,171 kg / 159,530 L
Sales: 11,387 kg / 9,854 L
****
2019/06
Inventory: 312,251 kg / 141,181 L
Sales: 9,976 kg / 9,614 L
****
2019/05
Inventory: 262,420 kg / 127,880 L
Sales: 9,524 kg / 9,816 L
****
2019/04
Inventory: 215,327 kg / 119,883 L
Sales: 8,874 kg / 8,202 L
****
2019/03
Inventory: 174,575 kg / 98,055 L
Sales: 7,627 kg / 7,918 L
****
2019/02
Inventory: 143,858 kg / 96,311 L
Sales: 6,670 kg / 7,270 L
****
2019/01
Inventory: 137,802 kg / 83,789 L
Sales: 7,313 kg / 7,914 L
Haha.. yes, this industry will be 'big'. but worthless relative to current projections. The value of this industry will collapse. Many of the high tech cannabis grow ops managed like gold mines with executives driving fancy Lamborghini's - will go under.
overhyped. overvalued.
"Many global supply chains, once hopelessly exploitative, have been improved in recent decades by hard-working and ingenious people. These people have learned the hard way — by doing it — what works, what doesn't, and why. The SmallCannabis™ Foundation expects to start by engaging their interest in this new task.
Our task may be easier because we don't have to compete with lower-priced products from an exploitative supply chain. There is no global supply chain for legal cannabis today. What little global trade there is, is coming primarily from producers in high-cost jurisdictions such as Canada.
Will it be easy to organize the nations that are likely to be the lowest-cost producers of cannabis into the SmallCannabis Consortium? To harmonize their cannabis laws, regulations, tax regimes, treaties, etc. facilitate sustainability? To ensure that their products meet European standards? To build a global supply chain that sends part of the profits from its consumer sales back to its producers? No, that's not going to be easy — but it is likely to be a lot easier than if lower-priced, unsustainably-produced products were already on the legal market. Those products will emerge if we wait too long. That's why it's important to act now."
The Cannabis industry is way overvalued.
Billions of investment dollars on infrastructure supporting cultivation in artificial environments will go to waste.
The greenhouse capable of producing revenue equaling to the same amount produced by a field crop cultivated across the entire nation will do no more revenue than the average barn.
Organizations across the globe have began articulating offensive objectives aimed at taping into global markets while crushing greedy competition - simply.. with lower prices
Next stop... nothing.
Prices are dropping fast. Government run SQDC retail stores in Quebec sell >15%THC strains for under $5/gram making them the stores top sellers.
Can't compete with prices.
A 15% or greater strain for $4/gram will do way more volume than a strain for $8 no matter the company.
Small producers can supply huge volumes in this industry.
Good luck running a cultivation operation like a gold mine. There will be no gold.
Prices will fall. Even $5/gram is way overvalued.
With less than 800,000sqft, over 150,000kg/year can be produced - a gram per week for all 3,000,000 in Chicago.
One facility can oversupply the largest of all cities... that says something about the cannabis industry.
In Canada, Quebec's SDQC has great legal prices.
A retail store in the capital region (gatineau) is already selling strains for under $5/gram.
https://www.sqdc.ca/en-CA/p-helios/697238111198-P/69723811119
Oversupply is driving down the prices. No difference buying a strain from one of the largest LP's vs a "no name" craft grower.. smallers LPs have a much easier time selling for less with minimized expenses and less overhead.
Overvalued. Will fall lower and lower until out of business
Safe Banking Bill makes ACB way more overvalued.
If it passes.. Canadian cannabis will be way more overvalued
Complete scam. So many real Chinese entity's, fraudulent Chinese MLM groups, and fake stories connecting everything together.
Jinbo is real. Jinbo you know... is a fraud.
African countries are legalizing cannabis to boost their economies.
With the economic prospects of cannabis legalization becoming clearer, some African countries want to tap into a lucrative industry that has the potential to create jobs and boost economic growth.
“With affordable land, low-cost labor and an experienced agricultural workforce, Africa offers enormous opportunity to local startups and foreign companies looking to expand,” according to the Africa Cannabis Report.
Here are 10 African countries considering cannabis for its economic prospects.
Lesotho
Lesotho became the first country in Africa to offer legal licenses to grow cannabis. Verve Dynamics Inc. was granted the first license from the Lesotho Ministry of Health for the cultivation, processing, and sale of cannabis for medical and scientific purposes.
South Africa
South Africa is on its way to legalizing cannabis. The South African government is working towards regulating the cannabis industry to legalize its use and benefit from the job creation, especially in rural areas.
Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe legalized growing marijuana for medicinal and research purposes. Zimbabweans can apply for a renewable license to cultivate cannabis, with companies and individuals allowed to produce cannabis for five years with a license.
Nigeria
Politicians are realizing the potential economic benefit that the cannabis industry could have due to favorable growing conditions and the size of its population. Ondo State governor Rotimi Akeredolu recently called on the Nigerian government to encourage the cultivation of medicinal cannabis in the country.
Uganda
In August, the European Union approved Uganda’s medical cannabis products, giving local cannabis farmers access to the global legal marijuana market. The country is willing to export the plant for its economic benefit. The government is in the process of amending laws that prohibit the production of medicinal cannabis.
Morocco
In Morocco, the cannabis industry employs 800,000 people. The conversation surrounding legalization has been ongoing since 2014 when an opposition party in the Moroccan parliament proposed a bill to legalize marijuana production for medical and industrial use. Economic benefits may be a catalyst for the legalization conversation to resurface.
Ghana
A campaign to legalize cannabis in the country is building momentum thanks to the support of the former head of the Ugandan Narcotics Control Board. State-led cultivation and export of marijuana has been proposed.
Malawi
Cannabis is one of the Malawi’s biggest unofficial exports. Malawi Gold is a world-renowned strain of cannabis grown exclusively there. Malawi is considering legalizing medical marijuana and hemp products to benefit the economy, especially as tobacco prices have fallen due to anti-tobacco campaigns, according to VOA. Tobacco accounts for 13 percent of Malawi’s GDP.
Kenya
At the end of 2018, a draft marijuana control bill was introduced to Kenya’s parliament and the legalization debate was ignited. The proposed bill was tabled by a member of parliament Kenneth Okoth. Okoth and his allies who support the legalization of cannabis argue that its controlled medicinal and commercial benefit outweighs the need for its ban.
eSwatini
eSwatini’s government is exploring the possibility of legalizing cannabis to boost the economy.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=0ahUKEwjqltvQ6-nkAhWBpFkKHSr-DNoQzPwBCAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Fmoguldom.com%2F228221%2F10-african-countries-considering-legalizing-cannabis-for-its-economic-prospects%2F&psig=AOvVaw2gykR79JwrFAeA-vtAggZj&ust=1569427622496306
Projections can be made with government cannabis statistics..
Harvested inventories, number of plants in the ground, implied growth rates..
Canada will be oversupplied by over 1,000,000kg of legal cannabis within the next 6 months.
That's 1 gram per week throughout the year for all 20,000,000 Canadian's.
The stock will crash. Way overvalued, overhyped. Management likes money trees.
Aurora's exports will be way more expensive than any other cannabis company exporting to global markets.
Countries and companies will have difficultly competing with cultivation in more suitable environments focused on minimized expenses.